Page rendered in 0.3207 seconds
47 querie(s) executed
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
The WS averaged a 7.6 rating and a 12 share in 2012, the lowest ever. Each game’s rating was the lowest ever for the given game (i.e., Game 2 was the lowest-rated Game 2 ever).
I’ve been looking at this for several years now, and unlike Hiestand I’m under the impression that these numbers, while the lowest ever, are slightly higher than expectations. And they have been for most of the last few years.
I have a simple model I’ve been using to forecast Series ratings for a while now. The original model was built in 2007 based on 1971-2006 data. The newer model is slightly enhanced and is fit based on data through 2011. The elements are as follows:
Length: Ratings go up for the Series the longer the Series goes. A 7-game series will get higher ratings than a sweep. Around +1 rating point per game added to the average rating.
Year: Assumption is that ratings started a slow and steady decline in the late 1970s, about -0.3 rating point per year.
Network: Yes, there is empirically a FOX penalty.
Market(s): Different TV markets attract different ratings. Both models have a 4-point swing in total depending on the teams involved; the two models have different bonuses by team, mostly because…
Drought: In the newer model I’ve added a component signifying that a given team is ending a huge championship drought. How huge? Phillies (1980), Red Sox (2004), and White Sox (2005) are the only qualifiers, so 86 years minimum. There’s a 4 point ratings bonus for this in the newer model. The older model doesn’t have this component, and as such the Boston, Chicago, and Philadelphia markets get a bigger bonus in that model than they do in the newer version.
Based on the actual 2012 Series info - Giants vs. Tigers, on FOX, in 4 games - the models predict as follows:
old model: 6.9 rating
...both of which are below the actual rating of 7.6.
One of the interesting things is that if I go back and generate a “prediction” on the model data, both models are generally underpredicting recent years. (The new model underpredicts back to 2006; the old model, back to 2003.) This means one of 5 things:
1. Randomness. Not buying this one, but it is possible that the deviation from the model is random.
2. I’m not using the proper model form. This is just linear regression; maybe there’s something better.
3. I’m missing something important.
4. FOX isn’t so bad any more. Maybe the sizable gap between FOX and NBC/CBS is no longer what it was.
5. MLB is no longer in decline, and hasn’t been for many years now.
Regardless, ratings are beating my expectations, even if they suck.
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Newsblog: OTP - 2015 November 23: DAVID SAMSONS MIX POLITICS AND BASEBALL
(1224 - 6:36am, Nov 30)
Last: Orange Julius Is a Synonym for Evil
Newsblog: Tigers, Zimmermann reportedly reach deal
(14 - 5:58am, Nov 30)
Last: Cooper Nielson
Newsblog: Chris Davis and the 'hometown discount' - Baltimore Sun
(23 - 1:55am, Nov 30)
Newsblog: OT - November* 2015 College Football thread
(1218 - 1:53am, Nov 30)
Last: Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams)
Newsblog: OT: Monthly NBA Thread - November 2015
(1368 - 1:19am, Nov 30)
Last: PASTE Transcends Almost All Generations (Zeth)
Newsblog: 4 teams that could sign Jason Heyward | MLB.com
(32 - 1:01am, Nov 30)
Newsblog: Why did Braves trade Andrelton Simmons? | Atlanta Braves blog
(43 - 12:58am, Nov 30)
Last: Orange Julius Is a Synonym for Evil
Newsblog: Bidding for David Price could reach 7 years, $210 million - The Boston Globe
(17 - 12:52am, Nov 30)
Newsblog: Young: Reggie’s job is to sell N.Y. on Yankee Stadium - NY Daily News
(11 - 12:38am, Nov 30)
Newsblog: OT: Soccer in November 2015
(140 - 11:04pm, Nov 29)
Last: Sean Forman
Newsblog: Comcast takes shot at Yankees in dispute as cable operator says not many folks watching the games on YES
(27 - 10:55pm, Nov 29)
Last: Gonfalon Bubble
Newsblog: MLB to investigate Dodgers' Yasiel Puig for role in reported fight - LA Times
(65 - 10:45pm, Nov 29)
Newsblog: Could former Rockies' slugger help Cleveland Indians offense? Hey, Hoynsie | cleveland.com
(7 - 9:59pm, Nov 29)
Last: Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66)
Newsblog: Does free agency freeze mean MLB finally learned splurging lesson? | New York Post
(32 - 9:41pm, Nov 29)
Last: Walt Davis
Newsblog: A Pitch is Framed in Diplomacy in Cuba
(1 - 9:36pm, Nov 29)
Last: Walt Davis