Page rendered in 0.6263 seconds
53 querie(s) executed
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
The WS averaged a 7.6 rating and a 12 share in 2012, the lowest ever. Each game’s rating was the lowest ever for the given game (i.e., Game 2 was the lowest-rated Game 2 ever).
I’ve been looking at this for several years now, and unlike Hiestand I’m under the impression that these numbers, while the lowest ever, are slightly higher than expectations. And they have been for most of the last few years.
I have a simple model I’ve been using to forecast Series ratings for a while now. The original model was built in 2007 based on 1971-2006 data. The newer model is slightly enhanced and is fit based on data through 2011. The elements are as follows:
Length: Ratings go up for the Series the longer the Series goes. A 7-game series will get higher ratings than a sweep. Around +1 rating point per game added to the average rating.
Year: Assumption is that ratings started a slow and steady decline in the late 1970s, about -0.3 rating point per year.
Network: Yes, there is empirically a FOX penalty.
Market(s): Different TV markets attract different ratings. Both models have a 4-point swing in total depending on the teams involved; the two models have different bonuses by team, mostly because…
Drought: In the newer model I’ve added a component signifying that a given team is ending a huge championship drought. How huge? Phillies (1980), Red Sox (2004), and White Sox (2005) are the only qualifiers, so 86 years minimum. There’s a 4 point ratings bonus for this in the newer model. The older model doesn’t have this component, and as such the Boston, Chicago, and Philadelphia markets get a bigger bonus in that model than they do in the newer version.
Based on the actual 2012 Series info - Giants vs. Tigers, on FOX, in 4 games - the models predict as follows:
old model: 6.9 rating
...both of which are below the actual rating of 7.6.
One of the interesting things is that if I go back and generate a “prediction” on the model data, both models are generally underpredicting recent years. (The new model underpredicts back to 2006; the old model, back to 2003.) This means one of 5 things:
1. Randomness. Not buying this one, but it is possible that the deviation from the model is random.
2. I’m not using the proper model form. This is just linear regression; maybe there’s something better.
3. I’m missing something important.
4. FOX isn’t so bad any more. Maybe the sizable gap between FOX and NBC/CBS is no longer what it was.
5. MLB is no longer in decline, and hasn’t been for many years now.
Regardless, ratings are beating my expectations, even if they suck.
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Newsblog: OT: Politics, September, 2014: ESPN honors Daily Worker sports editor Lester Rodney
(20 - 9:51pm, Sep 01)
Last: Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip
Newsblog: Photo of the day: Bill Murray, indy league ticket-taker
(92 - 9:51pm, Sep 01)
Last: The District Attorney
Newsblog: Astros Fire Bo Porter
(44 - 9:49pm, Sep 01)
Last: Kiko Sakata
Newsblog: OT: 2014 College Football pre-season thread
(98 - 9:48pm, Sep 01)
Newsblog: OT: The Soccer Thread August, 2014
(984 - 9:47pm, Sep 01)
Last: Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman
Newsblog: Athletics Acquire Adam Dunn
(41 - 9:39pm, Sep 01)
Newsblog: Blue Jays Acquire Mayberry Jr.
(5 - 9:31pm, Sep 01)
Last: Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer
Newsblog: Robothal: Changed [Manny] Ramirez enjoyed helping Cubs prospects grow
(7 - 9:27pm, Sep 01)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns
Newsblog: Tigers' Miguel Cabrera appears to re-injure ankle, leaves game
(18 - 8:44pm, Sep 01)
Last: Select Storage Device
Newsblog: OT: Politics, August 2014: DNC criticizes Christie’s economic record with baseball video
(6358 - 8:35pm, Sep 01)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)
Newsblog: No-hitter! Four Phillies pitchers combine to blank the Braves
(9 - 7:53pm, Sep 01)
Newsblog: Nitkowski: Wanted: Major League manager...sort of.
(4 - 6:39pm, Sep 01)
Last: The Duke
Newsblog: Extreme Moneyball: The Houston Astros Go All In on Data Analysis
(7 - 6:35pm, Sep 01)
Last: Walt Davis
Newsblog: Bob Melvin calls Athletics 'pathetic' after Angels sweep four-game set
(22 - 6:34pm, Sep 01)
Last: Walt Davis
Newsblog: OT: Monthly NBA Thread - September 2014
(2 - 6:32pm, Sep 01)
Last: Lance Reddick! Lance him!