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Friday, November 30, 2007

Houston Chronicle: Astros set to sign 2B Kaz Matsui

Barring some unforeseen developments, the Astros will beat out the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies to sign free-agent second baseman Kazuo Matsui, a person with knowledge of the negotiations confirmed on Thursday night.

Without addressing Matsui, Astros general manager Ed Wade stuck to his policy of not commenting on specific players until a contract is done.

“We don’t have a deal done with anyone,” said Wade, who declined to talk about specific players. “As has been the case all offseason, when we get a deal done with someone, we’ll announce it.”

Nonetheless, it has been no secret the Astros have coveted Matsui to the point that Wade flew to Los Angeles last week to meet with Matsui’s agent, Arn Tellem.
...
The Astros made a strong push for free agents Luis Castillo and Matsui. Castillo decided to re-sign with the Mets, but the Astros appear to have outbid the Cubs — who offered a three-year, $14 million deal — for Matsui.

NTNgod Posted: November 30, 2007 at 06:39 AM | 54 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, rockies

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   1. MSI Posted: November 30, 2007 at 06:44 AM (#2628875)
They probably could have played Chris Burke there for a lot cheaper. The organization needs a new direction. Matsui is going to help them much at all.

It's approximately 3/15, according to rotoworld.
   2. lincarnate Posted: November 30, 2007 at 06:44 AM (#2628876)
Guess on the years/dollars anyone? I'm guessing 3 years, $18 million.
   3. McCoy Posted: November 30, 2007 at 06:48 AM (#2628881)
Yeah!! Thank god the Astros get him.
   4. Repoz Posted: November 30, 2007 at 07:09 AM (#2628893)
Word has it that Lisa Gray has just reached the 48th floor of the Trammell Crow Center...
   5. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: November 30, 2007 at 07:17 AM (#2628896)
He's not going to hit enough to be an average regular but he'll play very good defense and be an excellent baserunner. 3y/15 m might just be the price for guys like that these days.
   6. shoewizard Posted: November 30, 2007 at 07:24 AM (#2628899)
Dang, he has some ugly home/road splits.
   7. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 30, 2007 at 07:27 AM (#2628900)
I am now projecting the Houston Astros to win the 2008 World Series. By a lot.
   8. Fred Garvin still has outstanding warrants Posted: November 30, 2007 at 07:28 AM (#2628902)
I'd be in favor of this, if only to keep Jim Hendry away from him.
   9. Eddie Gaedel Posted: November 30, 2007 at 08:42 AM (#2628928)
Russlan (#5), I think I agree.

Two years ago, the going rate for a 100-ish OPS+ corner OF with good defense was 3/$15M (Juan Encarncion, Jaque Jones).

I think it's fair to think that an 85-ish OPS+ 2B with good defense might be worth the same. Ignoring H/A splits, Kaz hit 288 / 342 / 405 last year; the league average NL 2B hit 272 / 341 / 418.

Not a world beater, and I'd have preferred a 2/$10M contract, but it's not terrible.

The fact that Houston had an in-house solution makes this deal must worse.
   10. NTNgod Posted: November 30, 2007 at 08:42 AM (#2628929)
The Daily Herald story on this:
Did the Houston Astros steal a free agent away from the Cubs or save the Cubs from themselves?

That question apparently will be answered over the next three years. The Astros reportedly have agreed with free-agent second baseman Kaz Matsui on a three-year contract worth $15 million.

Cubs general manager Jim Hendry was in the Dominican Republic Thursday and could not be reached late. Earlier Thursday, Hendry said: "We're definitely interested. We'd like to have him."
   11. SouthSideRyan Posted: November 30, 2007 at 09:02 AM (#2628931)
Did the Houston Astros steal a free agent away from the Cubs or save the Cubs from themselves?


Once again, Bruce Miles tells it like it is.

What a mind-numbingly bad deal that would be for the Cubs
   12. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 30, 2007 at 09:42 AM (#2628936)
It's absolutely amazing that Kazuo Matsui will now have earned more than 30 million in the MLB.

Nobody knew the first time aroudn he woudln't turn out. The secodn time though? Ha
   13. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: November 30, 2007 at 10:10 AM (#2628940)
If Bourn and Matsui can get on base like they are capable of, this really isn't such a horrible lineup.
In that crappy division, anything can happen.
There is hope.

1 Bourn
2 Matsui
3 Berkman
4 Lee
5 Pence
6 Wigginton

it gets real sucky here ... but still ..
7 Everett
8 Ausmus

its not that horrible.
   14. Sparkles Peterson Posted: November 30, 2007 at 10:16 AM (#2628942)
Um, that's Berkman, Lee, Pence, and five people who hit like little girls. If that's not horrible, what lineup is?
   15. stubbyc Posted: November 30, 2007 at 10:26 AM (#2628944)
Towles will get the majority of the time at catcher...not Ausmus. I still hope they resign Lamb and platoon him with Wigginton too.
   16. AJM Posted: November 30, 2007 at 10:28 AM (#2628945)
If you are counting on Bourn and Matsui to help your lineup you have major problems.
   17. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: November 30, 2007 at 10:33 AM (#2628947)
Bourn gets on base at a decent clip
and I realize this is a Mets heavy board, so Matsui will never get a fair shake. But when healthy he is not a bad #2

Towles will get the majority of the time at catcher...not Ausmus. I still hope they resign Lamb and platoon him with Wigginton too.
I am really excited to see what Towles can do in that ballpark.
and didn't they just sign Blum to be the backup?
   18. AJM Posted: November 30, 2007 at 10:38 AM (#2628948)
ZIPS projects Bourn for a .310 OBP. Matsui has yet to have a league average OBP.
   19. alkeiper Posted: November 30, 2007 at 12:44 PM (#2628957)
ZIPS is not reality. It's a good system, but Bourn spent most of 2007 as a pinch-runner/fifth outfielder. There is little data and the truth is that we don't really know how good Bourn is. If he hits as well as he did in 119 at bats last year (with numbers that were not out of line with his minor league numbers), then you've got something at the top of your batting order.
   20. TVerik Posted: November 30, 2007 at 01:26 PM (#2628960)
It's absolutely amazing that Kazuo Matsui will now have earned more than 30 million in the MLB.

In the 2003 offseason, I would have taken the over.

Unless he completely flops in Houston (which is quite possible), he won't be anywhere close to the worst player ever to make that kind of scratch in MLB.
   21. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: November 30, 2007 at 01:33 PM (#2628962)
Actually it is

Bourn
Matsui
Pence
Lee
Berkman
Wigginton ..

my bad.
   22. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: November 30, 2007 at 01:38 PM (#2628963)
If he hits as well as he did in 119 at bats last year (with numbers that were not out of line with his minor league numbers), then you've got something at the top of your batting order.


at worst, they have Burke as a backup.
   23. Bad Doctor Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:15 PM (#2629158)
Wow ... as in the Robothal thread, I can't believe people are looking at that lineup and saying, "Wow, that's really something, we just need to work on the pitching." But I was never big on Bourn with the Phils.

That does look like pretty good D up the middle though.
   24. Jimmy P Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:17 PM (#2629161)
They probably could have played Chris Burke there for a lot cheaper.

Well, you could say that for the last 5 years. I guess here familiarity breeds contempt.
   25. Jimmy P Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:20 PM (#2629163)
That does look like pretty good D up the middle though.

As bad as Everett is with the bat, I think you have to have his glove in the lineup. He's just that good at D.
   26. HowardMegdal Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:21 PM (#2629165)
But when healthy he is not a bad #2

Really? Was he healthy this year? Because this year, he posted an 87 OPS+. This year, away from home, he hit .249/.304/.333.

I think an average 2B is probably worth 3-15. I don't see Matsui there.

Are his defensive numbers good? Because he was godawful at 2B with the Mets. Always horrible.

And if you're counting on him to be healthy... well, he wasn't consistently healthy for years, and now he's a middle infielder in his thirties.

I have nothing against Matsui. I never booed him. He's a good guy in interviews. I rooted for him in the World Series, and wore my Matsui Mets shirt to the gym this week.

But this is not a good use of rsources. Chris Woodward is a better bet a 2B for a fraction of the cost. And so is Chris Burke, who the Astros already employ.
   27. JPWF13 Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:24 PM (#2629168)
ZIPS is not reality. It's a good system, but Bourn spent most of 2007 as a pinch-runner/fifth outfielder. There is little data and the truth is that we don't really know how good Bourn is. If he hits as well as he did in 119 at bats last year (with numbers that were not out of line with his minor league numbers), then you've got something at the top of your batting order.


Bourn got on base at a .348 and .356 clip in AA and AAA (ages 22 and 23)
That translates to about .310 in the majors, it's not unheard of a guy his age improving though, but the smart money has both Bourn and Kazmat getting on base at a below average clip.

I don't care how fast they are, starting your lineup with two guys who make outs at an above average rate is a bad thing.
   28. rfloh Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:32 PM (#2629180)
Howard,

I guess it depends how much of a park adjustment that you believe that Matsui should be subject. IE, should he be penalised extra for his horrible away numbers, or should just a standard adjustment be done?

Baseball Prospectus had him at -0.5 runs above position. For comparison, Castillo was at 0.

Defensively, RZR: +6, ZR: +15.
   29. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:32 PM (#2629181)
look at it this way.
since Burke is so great, he will make a nice insurance policy for both questionable moves .. .. right?

Burke
G 359
AB 1020
H 254
2B 61
3B 5
HR 20
SB 31
CS 10
BB 80
SO 194
BA 0.249
OBP 0.319
SLG * 0.377
OPS+ 80

Matsui
G 375
AB 1380
H 376
2B 77
3B 15
HR 17
SB 62
CS 9
BB 104
SO 255
BA 0.272
OBP 0.325
SLG * 0.387
OPS+ 82
   30. HowardMegdal Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:39 PM (#2629189)
Defensively, RZR: +6, ZR: +15.

I was serious- when did this happen? When did the numbers change?

He was HORRIBLE with the Mets. Because he didn't have contacts. Or something.

My friend's theory, and I still think it makes a lot of sense, is that the Mets signed a person named Kazuo Matsui to a contract- but not the guy who everyone loved in Japan.

WHEN DID THE REAL KAZUO MATSUI SHOW UP???
   31. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:44 PM (#2629193)
WHEN DID THE REAL KAZUO MATSUI SHOW UP???


There was an article about his defensive problems a week or so back.
Something about Mets scouts being blind ..

I'll see if I can dig it up .. :)
   32. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:44 PM (#2629194)
As bad as Everett is with the bat, I think you have to have his glove in the lineup. He's just that good at D.

Everett's a tough one to pin down. Some of the defensive systems rate him with Tulowitzki and some of them have him average-ish.

I guess it depends how much of a park adjustment that you believe that Matsui should be subject. IE, should he be penalised extra for his horrible away numbers, or should just a standard adjustment be done?

MGL believes there is a Coors field hangover effect for Rockies (they hit comparably worse on the road than you would expect possibly becuase their home parks messes with their approach). From what he's said, I believe he considers a straight park adjustment to underrate performance in Colorado. This may have changed with the humidor, I don't know.

I will say that I don't put much stock in taking the player's road splits and anointing that to be the true talent level.
   33. Jimmy P Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:44 PM (#2629195)
since Burke is so great

Well, Burke's done now. They've ruined him. They waited way too long to bring him up, then when they did they never gave him playing time, and then they switched his position a few times. Their "development" system failed Burke big time, and because of that, they're going to vastly overpay Matsui to get roughly the same player.

You look at signing Ausmus, Lee, and how they handled Burke (and other prospects), and it's amazingly clear why they suck. Then you add in that they actually think hiring Ed Wade is going to help. I'm sorry, Astro fans.
   34. HowardMegdal Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:48 PM (#2629201)
I will say that I don't put much stock in taking the player's road splits and anointing that to be the true talent level.

I agree with this. However, I put even less stock in taking a player's Coors Field performance and anointing that to be the true talent level.

Meeting somewhere in the middle, even, doesn't make the signing a good one.
   35. Dag Nabbit apealing [sic] his own check swing Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:48 PM (#2629202)
I will say that I don't put much stock in taking the player's road splits and anointing that to be the true talent level.

Among other reasons, baseball players as a whole do better at home than on the road. For example, 52% of homers come at home, despite the bottom of the ninth not always taking place.
   36. rfloh Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:49 PM (#2629204)
He was HORRIBLE with the Mets. Because he didn't have contacts. Or something.


Heh, I watched him with the Mets too.
   37. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:52 PM (#2629214)
That looks like a good candidate for "fewest runs scored in the National League".

Prove me wrong Washington Nationals!
   38. HowardMegdal Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:53 PM (#2629216)
Among other reasons, baseball players as a whole do better at home than on the road. For example, 52% of homers come at home, despite the bottom of the ninth not always taking place.

Tell that to Carlos Beltran.

Heh, I watched him with the Mets too.

So did it change as he boarded the plane for Colorado? Has anyone explained this? Or asked him? I was going to this April, when Colorado came to town... but he was injured.
   39. rfloh Posted: November 30, 2007 at 05:55 PM (#2629218)
#34

Meeting somewhere in the middle, even, doesn't make the signing a good one.


If you use a straight up adjustment, BPro had him at -0.5 runs above position. Either there's something wrong with their numbers, or his defense is below average / horrible. If neither is the case, in 2007 he was average.

<ugh: typos>
   40. Conor Posted: November 30, 2007 at 06:09 PM (#2629246)
Howard-
I don't remember Matsui being so bad at second base with the Mets, at least by 06. SS was another story, but I remember him playing a pretty good 2B. He didn't have enough games to qualify, but he would have ranked second in the NL in ZR in 06 at 2B. He didn't have enough games to qualify this year either, but he would have ranked second if he did. He would have ranked closer to the bottom in 05, but I seem to remember, and the stats bear this out, that he improved at the position as time went along.
   41. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: November 30, 2007 at 06:10 PM (#2629247)
man I just searched google everywhere.
sorry can't find it.

it was an interview piece on Matsui, and it discussed all of his struggles to American baseball, most notably his defense. It basically said the Mets had to teach him how to play defense all over again.

I am sure somebody else around here read it.
   42. retro-shiite Posted: November 30, 2007 at 06:21 PM (#2629270)
Good. I hope this means the Cubs are out of the running. Some of Jim Hendry's best moves are the ones he doesn't make, as a result of another GM saving Hendry from himself.

EDIT: I swear I wrote that before I saw the Miles link.
   43. retro-shiite Posted: November 30, 2007 at 06:24 PM (#2629275)
Seriously--why on earth would a team that has Mark DeRosa (who's actually turned into quite a good player the last 2 years) signed for the next 2 years want Matsui? And it's not like he'd be much of an upgrade on Theriot if they used him at short.
   44. Chris Needham Posted: November 30, 2007 at 06:26 PM (#2629278)
That looks like a good candidate for "fewest runs scored in the National League".

Prove me wrong Washington Nationals!

Getting out of RFK and with Nook Logan out of center? Oh, you'll be proven plenty wrong!

(just don't ask me about the pitching. PLEASE!)
   45. DCW3 Posted: November 30, 2007 at 06:26 PM (#2629279)
Really? Was he healthy this year? Because this year, he posted an 87 OPS+. This year, away from home, he hit .249/.304/.333.

And he was also one of the NL's most valuable basestealers.

Here's Matsui's RCAA (per 150 games) the last three years:

05: -25
06: -20
07: -7

(That doesn't include his time in the minors in '06, during which he was pretty bad, but it wasn't that many PAs.) A Marcel projection puts him at -11 for 2008. The average 2B is around -6 on offense, which would give him an RCAP of -5. And AROM's defensive projections have him at +6 at 2B, which would give him an overall projection of +1. His home/road splits are rather ugly, but not significantly more so than the other Rockies. He does seem to be pretty injury-prone, which hurts his value, but calling him an average 2B sounds pretty reasonable.
   46. Crispix Attacks Posted: November 30, 2007 at 06:28 PM (#2629284)
Texas is the hotbed of great NBA teams -- it's only fair that both of its MLB teams are bereft of hope and boring as all hell.
   47. retro-shiite Posted: November 30, 2007 at 06:33 PM (#2629294)
Towles will get the majority of the time at catcher...not Ausmus.

Yeah, keep telling yourself that. Houston's Ausmus-worship defies all explanation, and has for years.
   48. HowardMegdal Posted: November 30, 2007 at 06:38 PM (#2629303)
(That doesn't include his time in the minors in '06, during which he was pretty bad, but it wasn't that many PAs.) A Marcel projection puts him at -11 for 2008. The average 2B is around -6 on offense, which would give him an RCAP of -5. And AROM's defensive projections have him at +6 at 2B, which would give him an overall projection of +1. His home/road splits are rather ugly, but not significantly more so than the other Rockies. He does seem to be pretty injury-prone, which hurts his value, but calling him an average 2B sounds pretty reasonable.

This is a lot of mixing of projection systems to find a way to add up Matsui into an average 2B. Forgive me, I'm not there. I see a guy who is a good bet to be terrible offensively, and if his defense has improved, then he'll be a good defensive 2B who is terrible offensively. And I'm not sold on the defense.
   49. DCW3 Posted: November 30, 2007 at 07:17 PM (#2629378)
This is a lot of mixing of projection systems to find a way to add up Matsui into an average 2B.

It's two projection systems. One for offense, one for defense. It's not alchemy.
   50. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 30, 2007 at 07:20 PM (#2629385)
That looks like a good candidate for "fewest runs scored in the National League".

Prove me wrong Washington Nationals!

Getting out of RFK and with Nook Logan out of center? Oh, you'll be proven plenty wrong!

I forgot they're changing stadiums. So actually that would prove me right - Houston will be worst. Pittsburgh is not completely out of the running though.
   51. HowardMegdal Posted: November 30, 2007 at 07:24 PM (#2629400)
It's two projection systems. One for offense, one for defense. It's not alchemy.

It's two projection systems, minimizing the Coors effect and giving him credit for the reverse-Coors effect.
   52. Jimmy P Posted: November 30, 2007 at 07:30 PM (#2629420)
Prove me wrong Washington Nationals!

They reportedly just added Lastings Milledge, so that's more offense.
   53. NTNgod Posted: December 01, 2007 at 03:52 AM (#2630330)
Houston Chronicle:
With a physical and only a few minor details left before free agent second baseman Kaz Matsui signs a contract with the Astros, some of his future teammates are praising the moves new general manager Ed Wade has made heading into next week's Winter Meetings.
...
Matsui's deal has a chance to be finalized this weekend, but it could linger until Monday or Tuesday at the winter meetings in Nashville, Tenn.
...
Considering the club's surplus of young, unproven starting pitchers, the Astros also have the luxury of packaging Burke, Scott and a young pitcher if they want to get in the hunt for a top-tier starting pitcher or trade them separately. Whatever the case, Wade won't be shy at the winter meetings.

"We think we've had a productive off-season to date," Wade said. "What we hope occurs in Nashville is a continuation of the process of moving forward to help the club."
   54. Jamal Touch em All Posted: December 01, 2007 at 04:34 AM (#2630373)
The big question: WTF is Hendry still going after more middle infielders?????///slashslash

seriously.

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