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1. RichRifkin Posted: September 11, 2001 at 06:14 PM (#72645)Yes, in the near-term, you gotta play the hand you're dealt. But in the longer run, you have the option of building a better hand. Larry Dierker pronounced in the article that the better hand is one which draws walks and slugs well. It is not one built on speed, on bunts, on small ball, on station to station baseball.
When Jermaine Dye came to Oakland from Kansas City, he was asked what was the main difference in hitting philosophy. Jermaine said that in Kansas City, when he got up with a runner on 1st base, he was directed to make contact and move the runner over; whereas in Oakland, his new coaches said don't worry about moving the runner from station to station. Drive him in with one swing of your bat.
Perhaps I am reading too much into that distinction. But it struck me that with the very same player, a very different expectation and assumption was at play.
There are also situations -- runner on first, two outs -- where the effect of being thrown out may not be as great, and the reward greater.
In addition, not everyone on every team is going to be home run hitter or extra base slugger. I don't think there are 24 more Piazzas or Kents or A-Rods out there for the other spots in the line up. So guys who can get themselves into scoring position, and can score on less than a home run, will still be useful.
I think Seattle, and to a lesser extent New York, are teams which make good use of the stolen base. So I would not be so fast to consign it to the dustbin of history.
But overall runs scored is only part of the story.
There is evidence that teams that do little else but hit for power and draw walks score a lot of runs, but also tend to bunch runs - scoring high in some games and little in others. This is a less efficient method in terms of winning games, compared to getting 4-6 runs in most games.
One has to ask why the Yankees and Mariners have exceeded their pyth projections this year significantly. Perhaps part of it is that their baserunning makes it easier to push across one or two runs late in close games that are crucial in winning close games.
This difference might even be more important in the post-season. You have your best pitchers going, so high-scoring games become less frequent. These pitchers tend not to walk a lot of guys so a valuable weapon's potency is reduced.
People who say that small ball is the key are obviously wrong; people who say that the big-bang offense is the whole story are also wrong. The truth, as usual lies somewhere in between.
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