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Sunday, September 22, 2019

How did World Series champions who missed the subsequent postseason respond the year after?

With a loss to the Rays and an Indians win over the Phillies, the Red Sox were officially eliminated from playoff contention in a season following their World Series championship.

Boston has won 4 titles in the last 15 years, a mark no other team has matched in the same time frame. But the last two times the Red Sox have won it all, they failed to make it past September the following season.

After winning the World Series in 2013 with a magical bearded run following the Boston Marathon bombings, the Red Sox finished with a 71-91 record, which was good for last place in the AL East. They followed up 2004’s championship with a first-round sweep to the eventual champion White Sox and then fell to the Rays in Game 7 of the ALCS in 2008.

Fortunately for the Red Sox, it’s become pretty common for a World Series hangover to last an entire season after the fact. Boston is now the 10th team since 2000 to miss the postseason after hoisting that World Series trophy.

There’s at least one major factual error in this article- can you spot it?


QLE Posted: September 22, 2019 at 12:50 AM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: missing the playoffs, red sox, world series

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   1. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: September 22, 2019 at 06:53 AM (#5881812)
Really hoping to Sox panic into trading Mookie.
   2. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: September 22, 2019 at 07:11 AM (#5881815)
Let's see... there have been 19 champions in the 21st century, 10 of whom (53%) missed the following playoffs. (Unless that's the factual error QLE alluded to. I'm just running with this.)

But it's hard to make the playoffs in baseball; 20 teams out of 30 (67%) miss out each year, even accounting for the play-in game which isn't really The Playoffs.

I don't know, but I would guess if you just looked at every team that made the playoffs and checked the following season, you will find that somewhere around or a bit below 50% of one year's playoff teams return the following season. For teams that won the World Series, it's 53% in a very small sample.

So to the extent the factoid means anything (none whatsoever, because, again, the sample is far too small for that--but let's pretend) it just tends to suggest what we already know: that which of the 8 (real) playoff teams wins the World Series each year is functionally random; there's nearly no tendency for the best regular season team to win the Series.

A team tumbling from 108 wins all the way down to 84-85 is probably rarer and more interesting. But the "Hangover Effect" appears to mostly just be the Plexiglas Principle plus common random noise.
   3. cardsfanboy Posted: September 22, 2019 at 09:19 AM (#5881819)
There’s at least one major factual error in this article- can you spot it?

probably this.

St. Louis won its first championship since 1967 in 2006,
   4. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 22, 2019 at 10:11 AM (#5881826)
probably this.

St. Louis won its first championship since 1967 in 2006,

yes, but there's this implied error as well:


The Royals took down the Mets in 2015 to finally get their World Series championship after falling to the Giants in 2014.

Unless it's very poor writing, the implication is that it was the Royals first championship, or at least the first after several failed attempts. When one is successful in one's second attempt, the use of the word "finally" is odd at best. When Dan Jansen won his first (and only) gold medal, finally is an appropriate modifier. When Bonnie Blair won her first (of many) in 1988, after failing to medal as a 19 YO in 1984, finally would be an odd modifier.
   5. Darren Posted: September 22, 2019 at 10:38 AM (#5881831)
Bearded run? What is the author implying here?
   6. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: September 22, 2019 at 12:19 PM (#5881855)
They're gay
   7. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: September 22, 2019 at 12:54 PM (#5881862)
Yikes, I somehow misclicked and ended up in a thread from 1998.
   8. QLE Posted: September 22, 2019 at 05:15 PM (#5881937)
#3 and #4-

There's a third- contrary to the article, the 2016 Giants made it into the playoffs, beating the Mets in the Wild Card Game and losing to the Cubs in the NLDS.
   9. cardsfanboy Posted: September 22, 2019 at 08:51 PM (#5882004)

There's a third- contrary to the article, the 2016 Giants made it into the playoffs, beating the Mets in the Wild Card Game and losing to the Cubs in the NLDS.

the weird thing is why was the 2016 Giants even mentioned in the article... 2015 world series champs was the Royals... 2016 world series champs was the Cubs.... so not understanding why the 2016 Giants even made the article.

This is internet writing 101... the reason why people think that the internet can't do news....oops... this is actually a somewhat mainstream article?
   10. Walt Davis Posted: September 22, 2019 at 09:04 PM (#5882006)
It's the difficult to parse headline -- it's WS champs who missed the playoffs the year after ... then how did they do in year 3? So the 2016 Giants should be here -- they won in 2014, missed in 2015 then in 2016 made the playoffs.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: September 22, 2019 at 09:13 PM (#5882009)
Just cuz I was looking at their franchise page ...

Over the last 8 years, the Giants top WAR player has been:

2012 Posey 7.6
2013 Posey 5.3
2014 Posey 5.4
2015 MadBum 6.1
2016 MadBum 5.7
2017 Posey 3.9
2018 Posey 2.9
2019 MadBum 2.7

(1) Surely it's uncommon in the FA era for a team to have just two players over 8 seasons ... especially when both have been on the team the full 8 years. (2) That downward trend is obviously big trouble for the Giants. Not so much in terms of their individual declines but in terms of the fact the team hasn't found a single replacement that can even top 3 WAR.
   12. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: September 22, 2019 at 09:28 PM (#5882014)
Walt - The 2016 Giants are on the list. It is as you say the 3rd year comparison (relevant to the Red Sox as you’d expect from NBCSN - Boston).
   13. Walt Davis Posted: September 23, 2019 at 12:05 AM (#5882051)
Yes, I was responding to cfb who wasn't clear why they were on the list.

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