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Monday, June 18, 2018

OTP 2018 June 18: How Life Imitates the Congressional Baseball Game

“This game is a situation of which, you’re a product of your political success, so if you have a good political year, you have a good recruiting year for this game.” So said former Rep. David Bonior, D-Mich., many years ago about the Congressional Baseball Game and the teams each party gets to field.

Washington is host to the 2018 Major League Baseball All-Star Game, known among fans as the midsummer classic. But Capitol Hill has staged its own midsummer classic every year for more than five decades, the Congressional Baseball Game.

 

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 08:15 AM | 1775 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, politics

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   1. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 18, 2018 at 10:57 AM (#5694282)
The Supreme Court remanded the Wisconsin redistricting case back to the District Court for lack of standing, giving the plaintiffs another bite of the apple rather than dismissing. All Justices joined in the opinion, with several concurring opinions. Four other cases also decided today; more opinions to be released on Thursday.
   2. Bote Man Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:02 AM (#5694292)
Oh, this thread won't need the "OTP" tag in the title at all. No sir...

nvm. THANK YOU!!
   3. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5694293)
If anyone with the keys to the kingdom reads this this can they fix the title and add in the "OTP 2018 June 18: " prefix? Please.


EDIT: You are awesome! Thanks!
   4. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:05 AM (#5694296)
Done.
   5. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:07 AM (#5694297)
Shrinking map boosts Democrats in battle for the Senate

The Senate battleground map has shrunk dramatically in recent weeks — a net plus for Democrats but not enough to change their status as heavy underdogs to win the chamber in November.

Democratic incumbents look increasingly safe in four Rust Belt states President Trump carried in 2016 — Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Republicans are locked in a bitter primary until August. Both parties agree a core universe of states are truly in play: Republicans are targeting Democratic incumbents in Missouri, Indiana, Florida and North Dakota, while Democrats are contesting GOP-held seats in Nevada, Arizona and Tennessee. There is disagreement on how competitive West Virginia and Montana are.

Democrats headed into the election cycle facing a nightmarish map, with 10 incumbents trying to hang on in states that Trump won. While the party is still mostly on defense, the narrower field improves an otherwise grim outlook. Winning the Senate remains a long shot, but is possible if everything breaks Democrats’ way: They need to net two seats to take back the majority, which means protecting essentially all of their incumbents.


Trump has turned the worst Senate map in modern history into ... well a terrible map in 6 years. The chances of Democrats winning the Senate in 2020 have gotten a major boost. It would be awesome to win the majority this election, but as I said months ago, only losing one or two seats would be considered a massive victory with this map.
   6. DavidFoss Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:08 AM (#5694298)
Polling is now starting to report "enthusiasm' - and the gap is enormous, 20-25 pts. Trump backlash hasn't peaked - it's still building.

I'm not predicting that it won't happen -- just that it hasn't happened yet. We can't compare 2018 to 2010 until 2018 actually happens. This president has proven to be unbelievably shameless and has successfully been able to double-down on almost anything.
   7. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:13 AM (#5694300)
I'm not predicting that it won't happen -- just that it hasn't happened yet.


On that we agree 100%. It is not real until it has happened, the real poll is on election day, and all those other very correct clichés. Still most signs are positive.

It will be interesting to look at the Presidential approval numbers the next week or so.

Early signs are goodish though ... Republicans Start to Break from Trump

“The lowest points of Donald Trump’s presidency have tended to occur when a sizable portion of his own party has criticized him for his actions, policies and statements (even when the GOP doesn’t necessarily act on that criticism). Think Trump’s initial travel ban, the furor over Charlottesville, the Comey firing, the pardon of Joe Arpaio and the health care debate of 2017.”

“And Trump’s slight bump in his approval rating has coincided with a lack of intense GOP disagreement with Trump. Our June NBC/WSJ poll found the president’s job rating increasing to 44 percent among registered voters due in large part to his better numbers among Republicans and rural voters.”

“But is that about to change with fellow Republicans and conservatives increasingly criticizing — in varying degrees — the Trump policy of separating migrant children from their families at the border?”

   8. Hot Wheeling American, MS-13 Enthusiast Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:15 AM (#5694301)
@douthatnyt:
A brief thought on this @richlowry column, and the problem with the Trump administration as moral-political actor:

Lowry's right that this is a fiendishly complex problem, right that it predates Trump, right that there's a case for holding families longer than the Flores decree permits, right that Congress is a bad actor (as usual) in all this. But ...

... if the Trump WH were 1) normal and 2) decent, it could have reacted to the increase in family migrants by making a public case for Congress to act to make family detention easier, while trying to arm-twist a targeted bill through.

Instead it chose to start separating kids *first*, without any public argument for/explanation for the policy whatsoever, and then only when ppl began freaking out did we get the call for legislative action, the attempt to add provisions into the House deal, etc.

This choice reflects 1) the belief among some ppl in the WH that the separation was a positive good, bc of its potential deterrent effect and 2) the willingness of the WH to do something exceedingly cruel in order to gain negotiating leverage.

This is not something that can be excused, as Lowry does, by saying "despite some mixed messages, if the administration had its druthers, family units would be kept together and their cases settled quickly." For some WH ppl (incl. Trump) the "druthers" seem very different ...

... and even to the extent the WH as an organism does want a different policy it has still deliberately chosen to use separated and traumatized families as a bargaining chit to get that policy - and again, w/o even trying to make a public case for a Flores change first.

You can't say "we're being forced into this" if you didn't make any effort to sell the public and Congress on the alternative system before you chose this one. And the fact that the Trump WH doesn't do normal salesmanship/policymaking, bc incompetence, is an insufficient excuse.

Bottom line: I agree w/Rich about the fecklessness of Congress, the no-good-options border situation, the convenient outrage of the press over problems/practices that date to the Obama era ... and yet that still isn't enough to let Trump off the hook for the specific evil here.
   9. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:20 AM (#5694306)
I'm not predicting that it won't happen -- just that it hasn't happened yet. We can't compare 2018 to 2010 until 2018 actually happens. This president has proven to be unbelievably shameless and has successfully been able to double-down on almost anything.


But that's reflected in the polling, too -- particularly the question of "do you want a check on Trump". And even with his successful doubling down - now you're seeing House Republicans nervously trying to have it both ways on Trump's family separation policies.

I'll also point out again that actually, we do have some 2010 vs 2018 comparisons available -- namely, primary turnout. Dem turnout in primaries is spiking; GOP turnout is down - way down, in some cases.

Trumpkins on the GOP side are benefiting from the lower turnout - but they're just getting proportionally bigger pieces of a smaller pie. Folks can write off some surges in the fact that Democrats have more contested primaries than the GOP - but that excuse doesn't work everywhere. South Carolina, Nevada, Virginia for example - all saw sharp drops in GOP primary turnout compared to the last time those states had contested primaries.
   10. perros Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5694319)
moving the center of political debate to "cages vs chain-link-partitions" is a big win for them.


Yep. Triangulation had its uses, but eventually you strangulate your principles.
   11. Swoboda is freedom Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:34 AM (#5694322)
[emIt's the only place you can hear an angry, exasperated Samuel Jackson not using profanity.


The Red Violin has same. It's also an excellent movie, very much worth watching.]

I really liked Red Violin, but Jackson really did not fit the role of a classical music expert.
   12. perros Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:36 AM (#5694324)
What do we know about Yankee Redneck?

1) He's from Florida

2) He went to Ol' Miss, home of the Rebels, complete with flag wavin'

3) He enjoys making fun of Black celebrities

But I'm sure some of his best friends are colored.
   13. Swoboda is freedom Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:39 AM (#5694327)
I was listening to Malcolm Gladwell's podcast the other day. It was about immigration. As security on the border has gotten tougher, people are less likely to leave and the bring their families. He was quoting a study that showed how most Mexican illegal immigrants come over the border for a few months, worked, then went back home. They were mostly single young males. It was saying about 85% of them did that. As the border has gotten more secure, they can't go back as freely, so they stay and bring families.
   14. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:44 AM (#5694332)
I think there's a misreading of what the 'center of the political debate is' - mainly because Mitchie and Paulie, together with Trump, are the only ones with any power to "do" much of anything at the moment.

The WH seems to change its tune hourly on the moderate House bill that likewise seems to be dead/up for a vote/dead/etc hourly - but assuming the whackjob caucus or some combination of them and chinless Mitch manage to stall any votes for the remainder of this congress, I think it will be interesting to see what sort of bill the next House passes.

My very strong guess is that it will be decidedly more liberal than the Senate's gang of eight bill 5 years ago... and that - assuming the GOP maintains a thin majority in the Senate - will deliver Mitch quite the hot potato. I doubt a more liberal bill gets the same 2/3+ majority the Senate bill got BITD, but I'm also suspecting he'll have a bill that would pass the Senate if he allows a vote on it.

We'll see.
   15. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:49 AM (#5694337)
More GOP Civil War news ... Amendments fuel resentments within Senate GOP

His office also sent out a press release Tuesday that accused “Senate leadership” of blocking an up-or-down vote on his tariff amendment.

Corker is far from the only Republican senator to complain about the issue.

In recent days there has been growing pushback from rank-and-file Republican senators over what they see as an effort by leaders to stymie debate.

“I just believe put a bill on the floor and let people start amending it. And if somebody wants to object to an amendment, they need to object and record their objection and stand up and be counted. If somebody wants to offer an amendment, they should be able to offer an amendment,” said Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.).


Even the GOP leader of the Senate agrees!

McConnell promised in 2014, when Democrats still controlled the Senate and then-Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) kept a tight rein on the debate, that Republicans would open the floor to more amendments if they were in charge.

“Voting on amendments is good for the Senate, and it’s good for the country. Our constituents should have greater voice in the process,” he said in a January 2014 speech about how Republicans would run the Senate differently if in the majority.
   16. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: June 18, 2018 at 11:58 AM (#5694342)
What do we know about Yankee Redneck?

1) He's from Florida

2) He went to Ol' Miss, home of the Rebels, complete with flag wavin'

3) He enjoys making fun of Black celebrities


4) Trim in the waist, cute in the face

5) Married to a red-haired Irish girl from Ole Miss

6) Knows a fair bit about boxing and combat sports in general

7) Jewish, but not a Woody Allen Jew, more of a Joe Choynski Jew

8) Enjoys making fun of black celebrities pretty much everybody, hippie.
   17. perros Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:07 PM (#5694345)
#13 -- Maybe we should open the barn door since the horse long ago escaped.

Yr -- I give you credit for #6. And who doesn't like redheads? Also I'll try to remember not to take you seriously otherwise. Twitter puts my teeth on edge.
   18. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:11 PM (#5694349)
Gallup: Satisfaction With U.S Direction Reaches A 12-Year High:
U.S. satisfaction has averaged 38% in May and June after averaging 29% in March and April. The nine-percentage-point bump between the two periods is entirely owing to increased satisfaction among Republicans and independents, pushing Republicans' satisfaction to 68% and independents' to 36%. Meanwhile, Democrats' satisfaction is unchanged at 13%.

Differences by place of residence, age, gender and education are mostly not as large as by party identification, and the amount of change from March-April to May-June was fairly uniform within the former groups. Democrats were the only major demographic group to show no increase in satisfaction. Those in groups that tend to have more Democrats than Republicans -- those younger than 35, city dwellers, women and those with postgraduate work -- are least likely to be satisfied, but satisfaction levels rose for all of these groups in the May-June aggregate.

More at link.
   19. dlf Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:15 PM (#5694353)
In something that probably matters to only me on these threads, DJT has nominated someone to replace Acting Director Mick Mulvaney at the CFPB. And that someone, Kathy Kraninger, immediately drew comparisons to Harriet Miers, GWB's failed Supreme Court nominee who received so much criticism from R's that she asked to withdraw her own nomination. The first R I've heard criticize Kraninger is JW Verrett, a former Chief Economist and Counsel for the House Financial Services Committee and a Jeb Hensarling (a strong R opponent of the CFPB) appointee. Apparently the nominee has zero experience in any finance related field.
   20. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:19 PM (#5694354)
In something that probably matters to only me on these threads, DJT has nominated someone to replace Acting Director Mick Mulvaney at the CFPB. And that someone, Kathy Kraninger, immediately drew comparisons to Harriet Miers, GWB's failed Supreme Court nominee who received so much criticism from R's that she asked to withdraw her own nomination. The first R I've heard criticize Kraninger is JW Verrett, a former Chief Economist and Counsel for the House Financial Services Committee and a Jeb Hensarling (a strong R opponent of the CFPB) appointee. Apparently the nominee has zero experience in any finance related field.


Par for the course.

Nobody wants to be sullied with the Orange Letter, recognizing that yes - this is an agency appointment vs a WH job.

At this point, it's hard to figure out whether we're seeing results of Trumpian "Dear Leader" demands or unwillingness to be a laughingstock. Probably healthy doses of both.
   21. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:21 PM (#5694356)
Apparently the nominee has zero experience in any finance related field.


Which makes her the ideal Trump appointee.
   22. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:22 PM (#5694357)
Southern Poverty Law Center Apologizes, Pays $3.375M Settlement To Islamic Reformer Falsely Labeled As Anti-Muslim Extremist:
The Southern Poverty Law Center has reached a settlement with liberal Islamic reformer Maajid Nawaz and his organization, the Quilliam Foundation, for wrongly including them on its now-defunct list of “anti-Muslim extremists.”

The SPLC announced Monday that it has agreed to pay Nawaz and Quilliam $3.375 million “to fund their work to fight anti-Muslim bigotry and extremism.” The settlement was the result of a lawsuit Nawaz filed in April over his inclusion on the SPLC’s “Field Guide to Anti-Muslim Extremists.”

The list, which was published in 2016 and was intended to serve as a resource for journalists, was deleted shortly after Nawaz filed the suit. The deletion came roughly two years after Nawaz first demanded a retraction.

Oops.
   23. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:22 PM (#5694358)
Despite all his myriad flaws, Trump was supposed to be politically savvy. I mean, he had to be to squeak out an electoral victory despite all his myriad flaws. So it's interesting that he cannot see how bad this policy is politically, and is in fact doubling down on it.

Kirstjen Nielson becoming the new face of evil

"We do not have a policy of separating families at the border. Period," Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen says, calling out critics of the Trump administration's "zero tolerance" policy that calls for separating families who cross the border illegally.


Nielsen defended the policy in a series of tweets on Sunday night; earlier in the weekend, her agency said it had separated nearly 2,000 children from adults over the course of six weeks at the U.S. southern border.

The DHS secretary says the separations are warranted in cases where the parents have broken U.S. law by entering the country illegally — and that her agency is treating them no differently from how the government treats parents who break any other laws. But the Trump administration is being accused of handling the cases in a way no other presidency has.


Stories are coming out about conditions in the shelters. Children sleeping in large groups in the open on thin mattresses with mylar space blankets. The contractors running the place are forbidden from comforting and holding the infants, so that is left unto the other children, even to the point of changing diapers. And the new face of evil adamantly defending this policy, to the point of defiantly saying "we will not apologize for this"

I fear this country will never recover from this atrocity
   24. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:24 PM (#5694364)
Anybody who thinks Trump is 'winning' the immigration debate should probably note some headlines from just the last couple hours... When you're 'winning' - you don't get wildly different takes that manage to contradict themselves within a few sentences...

Border Patrol ‘Very Uncomfortable’ With Word ‘Cages,’ But Admits It’s Accurate

Ann Coulter Warns Trump To Not ‘Fall For’ The Migrant Children ‘Actors’

Toomey:

Toomey added that the familial separations could become President Donald Trump’s Hurricane Katrina, or the equivalent of the humanitarian and political disaster that sank George W. Bush’s presidency.

“Yeah, yes. I suppose it could,” he said, affirming that this catastrophe could be Trump’s Katrina. “I mean, I think clearly, the country is focused on this. Clearly, it’s a horrendous situation if a small child is being taken away from the child’s actual mother. So I think we’ve got to solve this problem.”


DHS Secretary Nielsen: ‘We Do Not Apologize’ For Family Separations
   25. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:27 PM (#5694368)
Trump has lost Franklin Graham

Catholic Bishops, Franklin Graham, Denounce Separation of Illegal Immigrant Families

For his part, as reported by the Charlotte Observer, Graham said that the separation of immigrant families was “terrible” and “disgraceful,” adding, “I think it's disgraceful, it's terrible, to see families ripped apart, and I don't support that one bit. And I blame the politicians for the last 20, 30 years that have allowed this to escalate to the point where it is today.”
   26. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:33 PM (#5694373)
So it's interesting that he cannot see how bad this policy is politically, and is in fact doubling down on it.


There is a large part of the GOP base that loves them some camps, so hey this plays into his feed the base strategy. I think it political malfeasance, but I am just some dude on the internet.
   27. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:36 PM (#5694376)
Ann Coulter Warns Trump To Not ‘Fall For’ The Migrant Children ‘Actors’


Don't worry, nobody believes that except some low-level functionaries and coffee-fetchers.

Now can we get back to whether you hippies have ever truly denounced Louis Farrakhan?
   28. McCoy Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:39 PM (#5694378)
Trump lost Franklin Graham



Doesn't look like he has. This is an issue that once it blows over all the people mildly rebuking Trump will go right back to blindly supporting him. The key issue here is of course this has to go away before the 2018 election, well, not really. It has to go away before the 2020 election. Trump has shown quite clearly that he doesn't care what happens to anyone else but himself.
   29. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:39 PM (#5694380)
S. E. Cupp: This is no way to treat families

Cupp is not a Trumpkin, but is a rock solid conservative.
   30. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:41 PM (#5694381)
Disturbing.

Went back and looked and yes indeed - the photos that ICE has released and the facilities journalists, human rights groups, and even congressional visitors have been allowed to see do seem to be only the cages containing boys 10 to 17.

Why is there no access or photos of the cages with the girls or younger children?
   31. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:41 PM (#5694382)
The key issue here is of course this has to go away before the 2018 election, well, not really. It has to go away before the 2020 election. Trump has shown quite clearly that he doesn't care what happens to anyone else but himself.


Trump loses the House in the fall, he loses a key member of his defense team, AKA, the House Intelligence Committee.
   32. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:44 PM (#5694386)
Doesn't look like he has. This is an issue that once it blows over all the people mildly rebuking Trump will go right back to blindly supporting him.


I meant to qualify that with ...on this issue.
   33. McCoy Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:46 PM (#5694388)
Trump loses the House in the fall, he loses a key member of his defense team, AKA, the House Intelligence Committee.

But he doesn't care.


I meant to qualify that with ...on this issue.


But Graham is doing the whole blame both sides thing. Your excerpt doesn't have him blaming Trump and telling Trump to knock it off.
   34. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:48 PM (#5694390)
Trump loses the House in the fall, he loses a key member of his defense team, AKA, the House Intelligence Committee.

But he doesn't care.


He'll learn to care once the subpoenas start flying and the chairs are not people taking ubers to the WH to coordinate Trump Legal Defense.
   35. McCoy Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:50 PM (#5694396)
He'll learn to care once the subpoenas start flying and the chairs are not people taking ubers to the WH to coordinate Trump Legal Defense.

Has Trump shown any interest or ability in learning? He. won't. care. Nothing is going to change in the White House until either he gets kicked out or he finishes two terms and doesn't get Ivanka to run.
   36. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:55 PM (#5694402)
God this is sickening. I think Mouse, as usual, overplays the political benefits for Dems here. This is what 35-40% of the country wants. More Republicans now have a favorable opinion of Kim, than Pelosi. Think about that.

There are about 100 million people in this country that love pissing off libs, seperating families at the border, and shooting black kids in the name of "law and order".

It is what it is. Now, if this continues to drive blue turnout, maybe it will be a big win. We'll see.

I never thought I'd see images like this in my lifetime coming from America. This is Abu Ghraib on steroids. But, as we've seen, this IS America.
   37. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 12:56 PM (#5694403)
Has Trump shown any interest or ability in learning? He. won't. care. Nothing is going to change in the White House until either he gets kicked out or he finishes two terms and doesn't get Ivanka to run.


This is an oversell. The Trump White House has gone through enormous changes since January 2017. In fact the chaos, changes in direction on most issues, staffing changes and so forth have been a signature of the GOP President Trump administration. Now Trump the person won't change, he is north of 70 years old, he is who he is almost certainly. But that doesn't mean he is immune to any and all political pressure.
   38. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:02 PM (#5694409)
I think Mouse, as usual, overplays the political benefits for Dems here. This is what 35-40% of the country wants.


Wait, what?

I don't know how to break this to you, but if GOP candidates get votes from those who want this, and Democrats get the rest, then I am WAY underselling the political benefit.

When confronted in the voting booth with the choice of voting for the "other tribe" the vast majority of voters will "come home". However, not all of them do and many stay home rather than go to the voting booth.

If you are anywhere near right in your numbers and it translates AT ALL to voting or enthusiasm for voting then the GOP will be buried in a massive Blue Wave. I am not at all suggesting that right now, for the record. I mean it could happen, but it would take Trump continuing to double down on this policy which I really don't see happening.

Note: The other part that is weird is the notion that large chunks of the populace being non-rational, emotional tribalists being something new, surprising, or appalling. I am a optimist in general, but come on. This is not new folks.
   39. . Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:06 PM (#5694412)
nn Coulter Warns Trump To Not ‘Fall For’ The Migrant Children ‘Actors’


The rightist loons did that "actor" thing with the Parkland school kids, too -- even after a bunch of their classmates got gunned down. Highly, highly bizarre. Unhinged.

Such weird and strange tribes we have in this country. We've always had loons, but they've now become the mainstream. Sane, rational, normal people have nowhere to go.
   40. Count Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:10 PM (#5694415)
Good overview by Matt Yglesias about Trump's entire approach to immigration:


This is a moment to confront the reality that Trump’s claims about family separation aren’t just messaging confusion or elements of a dishonest sales job. It’s cruelty that is just one piece of Trump’s dishonest approach to immigration.

Trump’s core argument, that he rode from the Trump Tower escalator into the White House and has carried through to every aspect of immigration policy, is that reducing the number of foreign-born people living in the United States will leave native-born people richer and safer. That isn’t true.

While Trump delivers concrete material benefits to wealthy business executives in the form of tax cuts and industry-friendly regulation, what he’s offering his working-class backers is that cracking down on foreigners will solve their problems and that his willingness to suffer the condemnation of cosmopolitans is a token of his dedication to their interests.

It’s a con.

Trump’s immigration preferences will make America poorer
The kids held hostage at the border are, in large part, pawns in a larger game by which Trump is trying to coerce Democrats into backing sweeping reforms to legal immigration.

The core of these reforms is to simultaneously switch the United States to what Trump calls a “merit-based” system — essentially raising the average educational attainment of legal immigrants — while also cutting the overall number of immigrants. The net impact of this, according to the people at the Penn-Wharton budget model, would be to reduce America’s per capita GDP by about 0.3 percent in the long run while reducing overall GDP much more than that because the population is lower.

Obviously we care primarily about per-person wealth, from which vantage point Trump’s proposal is bad but not catastrophic, but the aggregate figure does matter because, as the Urban Institute’s Damir Cosic and Richard W. Johnson observe, the smaller population would have a much harder time supporting America’s retirement programs. Under Trump’s plan, they write, “revenues would fall faster than expenditures, raising the present value of Social Security’s unfunded future obligations by $1.5 trillion, or 13 percent, over the next 75 years.”

What’s more, immigration impacts different groups differently. Specifically, as Heidi Shierholz, Adam Looney, and other economists have shown, immigration seems to raise wages for native-born workers while lowering pay for other immigrants. In other words, while the Trump-induced labor shortages in California farms may end up raising pay for other immigrant farmworkers in the Central Valley, it’s going to mean higher food prices for Trump voters in the Rust Belt.

Of course, Trump’s core pitch on immigration has always been about fear rather than economics, but here, too, his policies are a disaster.

...

Not surprisingly, tearing children from their parents’ arms doesn’t poll well.

But that doesn’t mean it can’t work for Trump politically. As detailed by Arlie Hochschild in Strangers in Their Own Land and Justin Gest in The New Minority, Trump’s white working-class base sees a world in which cultural elites have marginalized their concerns in favor of caring a lot about the problems of immigrants and minorities. Hochschild explicates this worry in terms of line-jumping, while Gest explains it in terms of circles of concern, but fundamentally, her study of Louisiana and his study of Ohio are saying the same thing — white working-class voters see a zero-sum battle for attention and sympathy in which caring about immigrants’ problems means neglecting their own.

Such voters may not necessarily approve of cruel treatment of Central American asylum seekers, but at the end of the day, the message that Trump is perhaps excessively cruel to foreigners emphasizes the notion that he is on their side.

But it isn’t true.

Trump knows how to deliver concrete wins to interest groups he cares about, whether that’s letting insurance companies discriminating against people with preexisting medical conditions, letting financial advisers deliberately give clients bad advice, letting chemical companies poison children’s brains, or delivering tax cuts that push bank profits to record levels.

By contrast, nothing he’s doing on immigration is actually going to help anyone with anything. He has no answer to the surge of asylum seekers, is implementing policies that will worsen crime, and is seeking broad policy changes that will lower wages and incomes for native-born Americans. And of course, there’s absolutely nothing in Trump’s career to suggest that he has any aptitude for or interest in genuine problem-solving. He’s a brand marketer and a flimflam man who had to make a $21 million civil fraud payout about his fake university shortly before taking office and is now facing a new fraud lawsuit over his fake charity.

The cruelty, too, is essentially a fraudulent branding exercise meant to make people who resent immigrants think that he cares about them. Immigrant kids will pay the highest price of all for the deception, but the reality is that nobody is going to gain except for Trump himself.


   41. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:15 PM (#5694418)
But that doesn’t mean it can’t work for Trump politically. As detailed by Arlie Hochschild in Strangers in Their Own Land and Justin Gest in The New Minority, Trump’s white working-class base sees a world in which cultural elites have marginalized their concerns in favor of caring a lot about the problems of immigrants and minorities. Hochschild explicates this worry in terms of line-jumping, while Gest explains it in terms of circles of concern, but fundamentally, her study of Louisiana and his study of Ohio are saying the same thing — white working-class voters see a zero-sum battle for attention and sympathy in which caring about immigrants’ problems means neglecting their own.

Such voters may not necessarily approve of cruel treatment of Central American asylum seekers, but at the end of the day, the message that Trump is perhaps excessively cruel to foreigners emphasizes the notion that he is on their side.

But it isn’t true.


That's a helluva academic spin on racist pieces of trash. And this is what I'm digging at Mouse. The latent racism that still exists, mostly among uneducated whites, has bubbled over. This IS America. Or at least around 1/3. What I have a hard time reckoning with is how it now appears to be the political plank of the ascendant political party. THIS IS 2018. It's saddening on so many levels.
   42. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:16 PM (#5694419)
How Life Imitates the Congressional Baseball Game


Is the answer "active shooters?"
   43. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:18 PM (#5694421)
The rightist loons did that "actor" thing with the Parkland school kids, too -- even after a bunch of their classmates got gunned down. Highly, highly bizarre. Unhinged.

Such weird and strange tribes we have in this country. We've always had loons, but they've now become the mainstream. Sane, rational, normal people have nowhere to go.


Continuing to pretend that it's NOT just one and only loony tribe in power just seems increasingly bizarre.
   44. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:20 PM (#5694422)
Continuing to pretend that it's NOT just one and only loony tribe in power just seems increasingly bizarre.


No ####. See my 41 as well. This isn't some problem with Democrats, this is a GOP thing. The GOP is now more openly racist than at any time since when? I'm not old enough to really know.
   45. . Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5694424)
Continuing to pretend that it's NOT just one and only loony tribe in power just seems increasingly bizarre.


To assert that the loony left has no power in this country goes far beyond "increasingly bizarre."
   46. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5694425)
To assert that the loony left has no power in this country goes far beyond "increasingly bizarre."


STFU
   47. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:27 PM (#5694427)
To assert that the loony left has no power in this country goes far beyond "increasingly bizarre."


I don't really consider making you cry much of a power... certainly not an important one.
   48. Eddo Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5694428)
God this is sickening. I think Mouse, as usual, overplays the political benefits for Dems here. This is what 35-40% of the country wants. More Republicans now have a favorable opinion of Kim, than Pelosi. Think about that.

There are about 100 million people in this country that love pissing off libs, seperating families at the border, and shooting black kids in the name of "law and order".

Yes, this is the scary thing. My father, who HATES Trump and abhors Republican economics, has no problem with what's happening at the border(*) and despite calling himself "liberal"(**) for some reason LOVES to constantly point out how dumb the strawman-filled "left" is.

(*) His general outlook is that the atrocities are overplayed by the partisan media (the media is overly partisan on both sides, he will at least grant).
(**) No, he's not SBB, because he actually happily voted for Clinton in 2016.
   49. Lassus Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5694429)
To assert that the loony left has no power in this country goes far beyond "increasingly bizarre."

What would you like to equalize and attribute to the loony left in the wake of gun nut and immigration SAG/AFTRA conspiracy theories?
   50. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5694430)
He's even lost Dershowitz....

“Mr. President, it just has to stop. There are better ways of doing this. You're better than this,” he said. “The American people are better than this. The American government is better than this. So I implore you to stop it now.”


The Nightly Raycast ought to be amusing...
   51. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:30 PM (#5694432)
Also from TFA above...

Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas), whose rural district encompasses a third of the total length of the U.S.-Mexico border, said the policy “is something that is squarely within the hands of this administration to ultimately change” and that standalone legislation to end the family separation practice “would get north of 300 votes” in the House.

Asked whether such legislation might be forthcoming, Hurd told CNN that “you’d have to ask” GOP leaders on Capitol Hill and that neither of the immigration bills currently under consideration there appropriately address the family separation policy.

“What has happened for us to have to craft legislation to say don't pull kids out of the arms of their mothers? We shouldn't be at this point,” Hurd said. “In the land of the free and the home of the brave, we shouldn't be using kids for deterrence.”
   52. Eddo Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:31 PM (#5694433)
This "actor" thing regarding the border is especially unhinged. Is the contention that "actor" children are showing up to be thrown in the camps? If so, (a) are the loonies saying these "actors" are willing to give up their freedom for the cause? and (b) WE ARE STILL PUTTING THEM IN CAMPS! THAT'S BAD WHETHER EVEN IF THEY ARE ACTUALLY ACTORS!

At least with the Parkland claims, you can see how a corrupt activist could take advantage of the situation by saying, "I was there." I 100% don't believe at all that's what happened, but there's a way you could see it making sense in an ends-justify-the-means sort of way. But at the border? Not at all.
   53. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:33 PM (#5694437)
"Actors" has been a GOP platform plank since at least Sandy Hook.
   54. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:35 PM (#5694438)
Amnesty International: "This is a spectacularly cruel policy, where frightened children are being ripped from their parent’s arms and taken to overflowing detention centers, which are effectively cages. This is nothing short of torture. The severe mental suffering that officials have intentionally inflicted on these families for coercive purposes, means that these acts meet the definitions of torture under both US and international law."

Massachusetts Republican Governor: "Governor Baker directed the National Guard not to send any assets or personnel to the Southwest border today because the federal government’s current actions are resulting in the inhumane treatment of children."

UN Secretary General: As a matter of principle, the Secretary-General believes that refugees and migrants should always be treated with respect and dignity, and in accordance with existing international law. Children must not be traumatized by being separated from their parents. Family unity must be preserved.

Dr. Colleen Kraft, the President of the American Academy of Pediatrics: "This does amount to child abuse."

So Trumpkins, it's gut check time. Which side of history do you want to be on?
   55. . Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:35 PM (#5694439)
“Mr. President, it just has to stop. There are better ways of doing this. You're better than this,” he said. “The American people are better than this. The American government is better than this. So I implore you to stop it now.”


And again, Dershowitz is spot-on. It needs to stop immediately. It never should have started.

   56. . Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:36 PM (#5694440)
So Trumpkins, it's gut check time. Which side of history do you want to be on?


LOL. Keep braying at the moon.
   57. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:38 PM (#5694442)
“What has happened for us to have to craft legislation to say don't pull kids out of the arms of their mothers? We shouldn't be at this point,” Hurd said. “In the land of the free and the home of the brave, we shouldn't be using kids for deterrence.”


THEN LEAVE THE GOP YOU PIECES OF ####. THE GOP HAS BEEN MOVING THIS WAY FOR YEARS. NO #### WE SHOULDN'T BE AT THIS POINT BUT WE ARE BECAUSE YOU GUYS BUILD YOUR PARTY ON RACISTS AND THE 1%.
   58. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:38 PM (#5694443)
Sane, rational, normal people have nowhere to go.


When he says this, he means "spineless cucks like himself don't know which #### to holster next."
   59. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5694444)
Up thread I don't think I was as clear as I want to be, so let me rephrase things a bit.


The vast majority of votes in this country are pretty much set in stone. There is a large block of tribalists who will vote for their party, forever (well, until they die off). There are the "throw the bums out" group, who pretty much vote for whoever they think is in power (Federally almost always the party of the President). There is a smaller "don't rock the boat" group, who vote for whoever is in power. And there are single issue voters, who care about their issue and naught else.

The remainder of the vote totals boil down to two factors. First a small slice of independent and/or low information voters (who think they are independent, but are really mostly just ignorant). The second resolves into voter enthusiasm, getting them out to vote or discouraging them from voting.

When I talk about an issue being a game changer - like the immigration debacle playing out right now - it is a game changer in that it can impact the two factors that matter. Of course it doesn't impact the other vote segments, they are already locked in.

So yes, it won't matter to most people. But so what? It is simple and powerful enough (simple story, easy narrative, powerful and universal visuals) to impact the independent, the low information, and also change voter enthusiasm. It wouldn't surprise me if it ends up more significant than Russia! Russia! in 2018 elections, because it is so simple and powerful.

But once more, I am just a dude on the internet, making amateur observations, worth exactly what you are paying for them.
   60. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5694446)
THEN LEAVE THE GOP YOU PIECES OF ####. THE GOP HAS BEEN MOVING THIS WAY FOR YEARS.


Careful there, Hoss. David will come and lecture you on how there really wasn't any such thing as a "southern strategy" at all.
   61. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:41 PM (#5694447)
Can we get back to talking about how awesome I am for attending Ole Miss?
   62. Eddo Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:43 PM (#5694450)
The vast majority of votes in this country are pretty much set in stone. There is a large block of tribalists who will vote for their party, forever (well, until they die off). There are the "throw the bums out" group, who pretty much vote for whoever they think is in power (Federally almost always the party of the President). There is a smaller "don't rock the boat" group, who vote for whoever is in power. And there are single issue voters, who care about their issue and naught else.

The remainder of the vote totals boil down to two factors. First a small slice of independent and/or low information voters (who think they are independent, but are really mostly just ignorant). The second resolves into voter enthusiasm, getting them out to vote or discouraging them from voting.

When I talk about an issue being a game changer - like the immigration debacle playing out right now - it is a game changer in that it can impact the two factors that matter. Of course it doesn't impact the other vote segments, they are already locked in.

Co-sign.
   63. . Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5694451)
There is a large block of tribalists who will vote for their party,


Tribalism and party devotion/loyalty are two entirely different things.

Party loyalty speaks for itself and has always been with us, and the political scientists and pollsters have taken note forever. Tribalism is things like a Republican parent saying, "I'd never want my son to marry a Democrat."
   64. Swoboda is freedom Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:45 PM (#5694452)
Can we get back to talking about how awesome I am for attending Ole Miss?

But enough about me, lets talk about you. What do you think of me?
   65. dlf Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:46 PM (#5694453)
Can we get back to talking about how awesome I am for attending Ole Miss?


Well, I will begrudgingly acknowledge that the Grove is the best place for pre-gaming during the Fall, but the barbecue in Oxford can't come close to Dreamland let alone the far superior Archibald's.
   66. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:47 PM (#5694454)
“Mr. President, it just has to stop. There are better ways of doing this. You're better than this,”

Objection! Assumes facts not in evidence!

(In fact, I would go so far as to say that there is plenty of evidence that he is worse than this.)
   67. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:51 PM (#5694456)
It needs to stop immediately. It never should have started.


If only we could figure out who bears responsibility for both of those.

Alas, it's a mystery.
   68. Joe Bivens, Slack Rumped Rutabaga Head Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:53 PM (#5694458)
But enough about me, lets talk about you. What do you think of me?
You can be Frank.
   69. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:53 PM (#5694459)
Amnesty International: "This is a spectacularly cruel policy, where frightened children are being ripped from their parent’s arms and taken to overflowing detention centers, which are effectively cages. This is nothing short of torture. The severe mental suffering that officials have intentionally inflicted on these families for coercive purposes, means that these acts meet the definitions of torture under both US and international law."

Massachusetts Republican Governor: "Governor Baker directed the National Guard not to send any assets or personnel to the Southwest border today because the federal government’s current actions are resulting in the inhumane treatment of children."

UN Secretary General: As a matter of principle, the Secretary-General believes that refugees and migrants should always be treated with respect and dignity, and in accordance with existing international law. Children must not be traumatized by being separated from their parents. Family unity must be preserved.

Dr. Colleen Kraft, the President of the American Academy of Pediatrics: "This does amount to child abuse."

So Trumpkins, it's gut check time. Which side of history do you want to be on?


No disrespect, but how much more evidence do you really need to know the answer to that question? People who don't care about history or know anything about it can't be expected to concern themselves about being on the right side of it.
   70. . Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:56 PM (#5694461)
No disrespect, but how much more evidence do you really need to know the answer to that question?


LOL. Apparently a lot.

As if I'd ever support such a thing.

The ur-tribalist "you aren't a modern liberal, therefore you're a 'Trumpkin'" thing continues to amuse, shock, and awe.
   71. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:57 PM (#5694462)
No disrespect, but how much more evidence do you really need to know the answer to that question? People who don't care about history or know anything about it can't be expected to concern themselves about being on the right side of it.


just go into the Breitbart comment section. It's so obvious. The Internet has allowed these groups to link up and in their opinion the last 150 odd years have been going backwards. Now they are feeling their outs. I can only hope a Democratic house takes back some control from the meathead racist POS base that controls the GOP.
   72. Greg K Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:57 PM (#5694463)
A slightly more ominous take on the phrase "wrong side of history" might imagine a future where, 50 years from now, someone looking at those quotes asks "what is a UN Secretary General?"
   73. Joe Bivens, Slack Rumped Rutabaga Head Posted: June 18, 2018 at 01:59 PM (#5694464)
The ur-tribalist "you aren't a modern liberal, therefore you're a 'Trumpkin'" thing continues to amuse.


You spend 99.9% of your time here pretending "modern liberals" are a bigger problem then Trump. Suck on that.
   74. Joe Bivens, Slack Rumped Rutabaga Head Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:04 PM (#5694467)
"But Modern Liberals are responsible for the election of Trump!"

Just like the D's are responsible for the fiasco on the border.
   75. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:10 PM (#5694472)
It appears that SBB has finally found something he can unequivocally denounce Trump for. Congratulations. Perhaps someday he will come to the understanding that a good portion of the... let's call it "resistance" to Trump as President over the past three or four years has been from sane, rational people who essentially predicted this, or something very much like this, was coming. Not the specifics, but that horrifically ridiculous events would occur on Trump's watch due to his inattentiveness and narcissism, and that his cult of personality would have been built to such an extent that such events are not universally condemned, because Dear Leader defends them.

While it is true that TDS (as SBB defines it) exists, his zeal in denouncing nearly any criticism of Trump and general condescension towards those not in his own tribe - yes, carefully chosen term, there, in case anyone is wondering - has very much assisted DJT in his climb. It will be interesting to see if and how any self-examination of the past few years takes place.

----------------------------

I had the time and opportunity to watch the David Letterman/Barack Obama "Needs No Introduction" Netflix piece over the weekend. I have no issue with anyone who disagrees with the man's political views, but I defy anyone to watch that interview and not come to the conclusion that someone like Obama^ is better for the country than someone like Trump. By which I mean, someone who has a vision of making "society" better, can articulate that vision, is willing to work towards that vision, and can inspire others towards furthering that vision. Someone who has an awareness of something, anything, other than self-interest^^.

^ Or Reagan, for that matter. Obama's not unique.
^^ Which isn't to say that Obama might not act in self-interest, just that self-interest wasn't his *only* guiding factor. There is no evidence that Trump has any other guiding factor.
   76. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5694476)
It appears that SBB has finally found something he can unequivocally denounce Trump for. Congratulations. Perhaps someday he will come to the understanding that a good portion of the... let's call it "resistance" to Trump as President over the past three or four years has been from sane, rational people who essentially predicted this, or something very much like this, was coming. Not the specifics, but that horrifically ridiculous events would occur on Trump's watch due to his inattentiveness and narcissism, and that his cult of personality would have been built to such an extent that such events are not universally condemned, because Dear Leader defends them.


Well said, anybody that says "well we didn't see this coming" (like so many GOPers seem to want) IS INSANE. You didn't see this coming? Really, the guy who in a candid moment admitted he often just walks up to women and grabs them by the ##### and he gets away with it because he's rich? The guy who made fun of a disabled reporter by doing a herky jerky dance at the podium? The guy who led chants of "lock her up" and ON AND ON AND ON.

This POS, on his first week in office, detained people legally residing in America at the airport so he could score some sort of "shock and awe" points with his base. This POS that repeatedly said Mexico is going to pay for a wall?

YOU KNEW HE WAS A SNAKE.
   77. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:20 PM (#5694477)
Massachusetts Republican Governor: "Governor Baker directed the National Guard not to send any assets or personnel to the Southwest border today because the federal government’s current actions are resulting in the inhumane treatment of children."


Colorado Governor just did essentially the same thing:

Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, a Democrat, signed an executive order limiting use of state resources "to separate children from parents or legal guardians on sole ground of immigration status."

“The U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s policy and practice of separating children from their parents when arriving at the southern border is offensive to our core values as Coloradans and as a country,” the executive order states.


   78. SY Ruined School Lunches! Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:22 PM (#5694482)
Trump is the avatar of the Breitbart/Infowars lunatic fringe. Not only does he propagate and promote their BS, but from all evidence he’s is one of the millions of middle aged dunces who has been fully propagandized by them. It’s a joke to pretend that there is any distinction.
   79. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:24 PM (#5694484)
Trump is the avatar of the Breitbart/Infowars lunatic fringe. Not only does he propagate and promote their BS, but from all evidence he’s is one of the millions of middle aged dunces who has been fully propagandized by them. It’s a joke to pretend that there is any distinction.


Bingo. Except it's no longer a fringe, for various reasons structural and technology wise.
   80. . Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:31 PM (#5694496)
Except it's no longer a fringe, for various reasons structural and technology wise.


Structure and technology changes apply to tribalism generally, not just rightist loons.
   81. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:31 PM (#5694498)
It appears that SBB has finally found something he can unequivocally denounce Trump for.


Stretchy seems dimly aware that the shelf life for being a Trumpkin seems to be drawing to a close and so he is steadily "evolving" his troll act into a new direction. The new direction will of course still maunder on about The Decline and rail against Modern Liberals, only the "Trump" will be excised.
   82. McCoy Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:32 PM (#5694499)
This is an oversell. The Trump White House has gone through enormous changes since January 2017. In fact the chaos, changes in direction on most issues, staffing changes and so forth have been a signature of the GOP President Trump administration. Now Trump the person won't change, he is north of 70 years old, he is who he is almost certainly. But that doesn't mean he is immune to any and all political pressure.

This doesn't address my view. Trump does not care. That Sean Spicer leaves or Bannon or Preibus does not prove that he cares about anything beyond himself. It helps show that he doesn't care. Trump hasn't shown that he will change and hasn't changed his entire time in office. Nor does it appear the executive branch will change under pressure either. It will continue to be his apparatus. What we have in the executive branch will not change and perhaps is forever changed until Trump leaves office. This is not a come to Jesus moment for the Executive branch, for the President, nor for the GOP. Regardless of whether or not he wins this stupid battle nothing will change in DC. The GOP will still be spineless against Trump and he'll continue to do whatever he wants.

As long as Trump can influence a large chunk of voting GOP voters the GOP will bend to his will and thus nothing will change. GOP voters would need to abandon Trump to the point of getting something like 40% support from conservative voters. He isn't anywhere close to that and will unlikely get to that point anytime soon if ever.
   83. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:37 PM (#5694506)
Trump has lost Franklin Graham

Catholic Bishops, Franklin Graham, Denounce Separation of Illegal Immigrant Families

For his part, as reported by the Charlotte Observer, Graham said that the separation of immigrant families was “terrible” and “disgraceful,” adding, “I think it's disgraceful, it's terrible, to see families ripped apart, and I don't support that one bit. And I blame the politicians for the last 20, 30 years that have allowed this to escalate to the point where it is today.”
No, he hasn't lost Graham. See that last sentence? Graham is reciting the Trump talking point that Trump has no choice and that it's actually the Democrats' fault for passing these laws forcing this to happen.)
   84. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:38 PM (#5694509)
Except it's no longer a fringe, for various reasons structural and technology wise.
More because people like SBB have contributed to the "thinking" that any criticism of Trump is from loony people. Technology is only a tool by which his particular brand of subversion gains any kind of traction.
   85. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:46 PM (#5694521)
This "actor" thing regarding the border is especially unhinged. Is the contention that "actor" children are showing up to be thrown in the camps? If so, (a) are the loonies saying these "actors" are willing to give up their freedom for the cause? and (b) WE ARE STILL PUTTING THEM IN CAMPS! THAT'S BAD WHETHER EVEN IF THEY ARE ACTUALLY ACTORS!
As I read the thing about Coulter, she is not making the "crisis actor" argument that the people at various school shootings weren't really there (let alone that the shootings didn't happen at all!) Rather, she's merely saying (I think) that the children being quoted are coached to say certain things.
   86. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:48 PM (#5694526)
Technology is only a tool by which his particular brand of subversion gains any kind of traction


I think it's linked ignorant, racist whites from sea to sea in ways that previously was impossible. The rise of the "Peter Sweden" types on Twitter is horrifying. It's like a tipping point was reached sometime in 2016-17 where the "stormfront" types moved out of the ignorant backwaters of the Internet and exploded on twitter and facebook, 4chan and elsewhere.
   87. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:49 PM (#5694527)
As I read the thing about Coulter, she is not making the "crisis actor" argument that the people at various school shootings weren't really there (let alone that the shootings didn't happen at all!) Rather, she's merely saying (I think) that the children being quoted are coached to say certain things.


JFC. There it is.
   88. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:52 PM (#5694530)
This doesn't address my view. Trump does not care.


I think we are talking past each other. Trump not changing doesn't mean the administration won't change. The administration is more than a mere extension of Trump's will. And it is the administration that matters. That and the governing forces on the administration.

Trump may not care, but the courts care, Congress (in theory) cares). And the staff in the administration, both political and not, care very much. They have careers, finances, reputation, possible legal bills and may other things that they very much care about.

Nor does it appear the executive branch will change under pressure either. It will continue to be his apparatus. What we have in the executive branch will not change and perhaps is forever changed until Trump leaves office.


This is the part that is an oversell, for reasons I have described.

This is not a come to Jesus moment for the Executive branch, for the President, nor for the GOP. Regardless of whether or not he wins this stupid battle nothing will change in DC. The GOP will still be spineless against Trump and he'll continue to do whatever he wants.

As long as Trump can influence a large chunk of voting GOP voters the GOP will bend to his will and thus nothing will change. GOP voters would need to abandon Trump to the point of getting something like 40% support from conservative voters. He isn't anywhere close to that and will unlikely get to that point anytime soon if ever.


OK, this part is an oversell also. Politicians only hew to the Trump line so far as it benefits them. They are not profiles in courage, and when it gets too much they will fall away. It is not a law of nature that they will forever and ever support him.

Presidential popularity matters, and when it hits a certain toxic level things can change in a hurry. We saw it with Nixon and with W (for very different reasons). Trump is not immune.

I am not saying it is a rock solid lock that this is it, but it sure looks like the sort of thing that could turn into a tipping point. All IMO, of course.


   89. . Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:55 PM (#5694535)
I think it's linked ignorant, racist whites from sea to sea in ways that previously was impossible.


It was impossible for any crazy-ass group, right down to child molesters. They used to be isolated, which gave them a feeling of relative powerlessness and ostracism ... and now they aren't. That's all the internet's doing.

Big net negative.
   90. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:56 PM (#5694536)
I think it's linked ignorant, racist whites from sea to sea in ways that previously was impossible.


Only insomuch as modern tech has linked us all more quickly and efficiently. Those people were linked and vocal and organized in the 1990's, email. In the 1980's via fax and phone. In the 1970's via pamphlets. The primary difference today is that a major political party has been taken over by one of them, a true believer in all things racist-right, and has wrested the reins of the state from human beings by leveraging the resentment and stupidity of the marginally racists that form the GOP's base into a more vitriolic airhorn for the once marginal Stormfronter type to use.

The guy writing policy in the Trump White House is a Stormfronter, after all.
   91. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:58 PM (#5694538)

Presidential popularity matters, and when it hits a certain toxic level things can change in a hurry. We saw it with Nixon and with W (for very different reasons). Trump is not immune.
More platitudes. "Things can change" is not an argument. Neither Nixon nor W were leaders of a cult, the way Trump is.
   92. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: June 18, 2018 at 02:59 PM (#5694539)
Technology is only a tool by which his particular brand of subversion gains any kind of traction

I think it's linked ignorant, racist whites from sea to sea in ways that previously was impossible.
I *think* we're saying the same thing, or nearly so. Technology is a definitely an expediting factor in the corrosion, there's no denying that. But the creator of corrosive thoughts is far more to blame than the propagation system.
   93. Lassus Posted: June 18, 2018 at 03:10 PM (#5694550)
"you aren't a modern liberal, therefore you're a 'Trumpkin'" thing

It's basically mostly exactly what I thought someone said!

In other words, no one did.
   94. Eddo Posted: June 18, 2018 at 03:19 PM (#5694559)
As I read the thing about Coulter, she is not making the "crisis actor" argument that the people at various school shootings weren't really there (let alone that the shootings didn't happen at all!) Rather, she's merely saying (I think) that the children being quoted are coached to say certain things.

OK, I understand that, and can see in theory how that could happen with the Parkland kids.

But who is coaching the detained children? The people running the camps? Why would they coach the kids to say things to make the camps look bad?
   95. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: June 18, 2018 at 03:20 PM (#5694564)
OK, this part is an oversell also. Politicians only hew to the Trump line so far as it benefits them.


One of the most infuriating elements of the nation's current crisis is that the comfortable Democratic middle types still think we're playing politics by traditional means.
   96. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: June 18, 2018 at 03:21 PM (#5694565)
I strenuously object to any argument or explanation that makes Coulter seem in any way reasonable.
   97. Lassus Posted: June 18, 2018 at 03:21 PM (#5694568)
But who is coaching the detained children?

####### nobody. Coulter's a lying conspiracy hack and David's doing god knows what.


I strenuously object to any argument or explanation that makes Coulter seem in any way reasonable.

You should be fine then, because I don't see where that's happened.
   98. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: June 18, 2018 at 03:23 PM (#5694570)
But who is coaching the detained children?


The Deep State. Obviously.
   99. Jay Z Posted: June 18, 2018 at 03:27 PM (#5694575)
More platitudes. "Things can change" is not an argument. Neither Nixon nor W were leaders of a cult, the way Trump is.


The polling place is what matters. If Trump can't deliver the goods there, it doesn't matter.

The Rs abandoned Nixon because he was a lame duck. They were going to get killed in '74 because of him, he wasn't helping them in '76 either. He had nothing to offer the party.

Now it matters as to what Trump might do. Would Trump resign, or force impeachment. But an unpopular Trump whose party is losing elections is no different than anyone else, unless you think he'll call out the troops and suspend elections.
   100. Swoboda is freedom Posted: June 18, 2018 at 03:30 PM (#5694578)
OK, I understand that, and can see in theory how that could happen with the Parkland kids.

But who is coaching the detained children? The people running the camps? Why would they coach the kids to say things to make the camps look bad?


I think the kids are probably coached by their parents on what to say, but not sure how coachable a 2 to 6 year old is.
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