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Friday, January 04, 2013

How the 2013 Mets make the playoffs

Let’s be honest: The trade of R.A. Dickey has given Mets fans every reason to punt on the 2013 season.

Yes, you’re looking ahead to 2014 and 2015, but 2013 comes first.

And maybe, just maybe, there’s a way we can pretend that the Mets could be contenders this year.

So that got me thinking—what is that one combination in 100 that puts the Mets into October?

Mark Simon hooks me with this title, nice fairy tale.

attaboy Posted: January 04, 2013 at 01:06 PM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets, playoffs

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   1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 04, 2013 at 01:40 PM (#4339069)
Four plane crashes?
   2. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 04, 2013 at 01:44 PM (#4339073)
i am sure if a mets organization person were interested someone might be able to get them an sro ticket
   3. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 04, 2013 at 02:00 PM (#4339091)
Snapper, you stole my thunder. My comment was going to be:

"I would imagine a plurality of plane crashes would have to be involved."
   4. Shooty is obsessed with the latest hoodie Posted: January 04, 2013 at 02:07 PM (#4339099)
Baseball playoffs expanded to 30 teams. Mets still miss out.
   5. billyshears Posted: January 04, 2013 at 02:39 PM (#4339134)
Look, the Orioles made the playoffs last year, so these things can happen. If the Mets play over their head and get a bit lucky, a team or two gets old quickly and another team or two just kind of falls apart, all of the sudden the Mets are in contention. I would never bet on it, but the Mets are not devoid of players with upside.
   6. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: January 04, 2013 at 03:02 PM (#4339161)
First of all, the "four plane crashes" comments are uncalled for. The Marlins plane can land safely!

Secondly, I really like this genre of article. It's fun to imagine routes to the playoffs for improbable teams, as long as you remember that it is in fact improbable. Last year in the RLYW projection blowout, there were only two teams that made the playoffs in less than 1% of the sims -- the Astros and the Orioles. Point is that almost everyone has at least a 1 in 100 shot, and occasionally those 1 in 100 shots make it. The Royals, for example, clearly have a chance -- some hitters develop, the pitching is adequate, and no one in the division runs away and hides. An article getting more specific than that would be fun.

The linked article is fine. None of his hopes are particularly outlandish, and the author admits that all of them coming true at once isn't a particularly likely scenario. But he's come up with a reasonable scenario for the Mets.
   7. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: January 04, 2013 at 03:30 PM (#4339201)
What's Needed From The Core
To Make Playoffs in 2013
WAR
David Wright 7.0
Ike Davis 3.0
Ruben Tejada 2.5
Daniel Murphy 2.5
Travis d'Arnaud 2.5

Jonathon Niese 4.0
Matt Harvey 3.0
Zack Wheeler 2.0
-- David Wright having a repeat of his 2012


Ok, so basically that means having Wright repeat 2012
Ike doing as he did 2010/11 (sans injury)
Tejada playing 150 games
Murphy hitting more like 2011
d'Arnaud transitioning well to the MLB

Niese taking a little step up
Harvey...
Wheeler...

None by themselves is extremely unlikely, all hitting...
   8. depletion Posted: January 04, 2013 at 03:40 PM (#4339210)
#1. I see you've been tasked with the Beatles reunion as well.
When I read that Omar Quintel..aaa has been signed to the Mets, I knew that it was time to completely stop thinking they are going to win any games. The early '80's Mets had these qualities: a few good players like Craig Swan or Rusty Staub, a few fair players with a flaw in their games, the rest... merde. Travis D'Catcher is not going to contribute much as he will probably play half the year, or more, in the minors. Wake me up when they get a new owner.
   9. RMc and the Acevedo Naysayers: Reunion Tour 2016! Posted: January 04, 2013 at 09:15 PM (#4339412)
With the Mets' luck, they'll be twenty-five plane crashes, wiping out every team outside the NL East.
   10. Benji Posted: January 05, 2013 at 02:17 AM (#4339507)
Yes, with the worst OF in the history of baseball and a bullpen that won't even approach last year's ineptitude they are a real playoff threat.
   11. PreservedFish Posted: January 05, 2013 at 03:45 AM (#4339517)
When I read that Omar Quintel..aaa has been signed to the Mets, I knew that it was time to completely stop thinking they are going to win any games.


Oh, I'm glad they got him back. I was actually kind of impressed with him last year. Career .300/.368/.448 hitter in the minors, lefty, decent defender ... potentially solid utility player right there.
   12. zachtoma Posted: January 05, 2013 at 05:17 AM (#4339525)
Four plane crashes?


Actually the Mets can make the playoffs in as few as two plane crashes, assuming the Nats and Braves crash into each other, as do the Marlins and Phillies.
   13. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 05, 2013 at 08:17 AM (#4339541)
The Mets aren't good, but they're probably 10 games better than the Marlins. The Marlins are really terrible.
   14. CrosbyBird Posted: January 05, 2013 at 10:33 AM (#4339585)
None by themselves is extremely unlikely, all hitting...

That's the way the Mets crush my soul most seasons. There are ten things that, individually, don't sound outrageously unlikely, but even ten fifty-fifty propositions don't break even once in a thousand times.

I'm not buying in 2013.
   15. Swoboda is freedom Posted: January 05, 2013 at 10:40 AM (#4339593)
Four plane crashes?



We don't have to be this drastic. Just assign the Mets medical staff to the other teams.
   16. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 05, 2013 at 03:23 PM (#4339719)
The Pirates just released Rick Vandenhurk. His major league numbers are pretty bad and he's 27 years old so he isn't going t win any Cy Youngs but he was pretty good in the minors last year. He's got a pretty good fastball and I think he'd be worth a minor league contract to compete for the fifth spot in the rotation.

The Mets have signed Aaron Laffey and are rumored to be interested in re-signing Chris Young. I think I like Vandenhurk more than those guys.
   17. beer on a stick Posted: January 05, 2013 at 03:45 PM (#4339733)
The Marlins plane can land safely!


I don't think the Marlins will be flying next season. Double A teams bus.
   18. valuearbitrageur Posted: January 05, 2013 at 04:59 PM (#4339768)
Is it too late for the single plane crash scenario, I.e the Wilpons family jet, to save this season?
   19. Joey B. is counting the days to Trea Turner Posted: January 06, 2013 at 12:41 PM (#4340040)
Where's Jim Mora Senior when you really need him?

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