Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, January 04, 2013

How the 2013 Mets make the playoffs

Let’s be honest: The trade of R.A. Dickey has given Mets fans every reason to punt on the 2013 season.

Yes, you’re looking ahead to 2014 and 2015, but 2013 comes first.

And maybe, just maybe, there’s a way we can pretend that the Mets could be contenders this year.

So that got me thinking—what is that one combination in 100 that puts the Mets into October?

Mark Simon hooks me with this title, nice fairy tale.

attaboy Posted: January 04, 2013 at 01:06 PM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets, playoffs

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 04, 2013 at 01:40 PM (#4339069)
Four plane crashes?
   2. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 04, 2013 at 01:44 PM (#4339073)
i am sure if a mets organization person were interested someone might be able to get them an sro ticket
   3. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 04, 2013 at 02:00 PM (#4339091)
Snapper, you stole my thunder. My comment was going to be:

"I would imagine a plurality of plane crashes would have to be involved."
   4. Shooty is obsessed with the latest hoodie Posted: January 04, 2013 at 02:07 PM (#4339099)
Baseball playoffs expanded to 30 teams. Mets still miss out.
   5. billyshears Posted: January 04, 2013 at 02:39 PM (#4339134)
Look, the Orioles made the playoffs last year, so these things can happen. If the Mets play over their head and get a bit lucky, a team or two gets old quickly and another team or two just kind of falls apart, all of the sudden the Mets are in contention. I would never bet on it, but the Mets are not devoid of players with upside.
   6. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: January 04, 2013 at 03:02 PM (#4339161)
First of all, the "four plane crashes" comments are uncalled for. The Marlins plane can land safely!

Secondly, I really like this genre of article. It's fun to imagine routes to the playoffs for improbable teams, as long as you remember that it is in fact improbable. Last year in the RLYW projection blowout, there were only two teams that made the playoffs in less than 1% of the sims -- the Astros and the Orioles. Point is that almost everyone has at least a 1 in 100 shot, and occasionally those 1 in 100 shots make it. The Royals, for example, clearly have a chance -- some hitters develop, the pitching is adequate, and no one in the division runs away and hides. An article getting more specific than that would be fun.

The linked article is fine. None of his hopes are particularly outlandish, and the author admits that all of them coming true at once isn't a particularly likely scenario. But he's come up with a reasonable scenario for the Mets.
   7. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: January 04, 2013 at 03:30 PM (#4339201)
What's Needed From The Core
To Make Playoffs in 2013
David Wright 7.0
Ike Davis 3.0
Ruben Tejada 2.5
Daniel Murphy 2.5
Travis d'Arnaud 2.5

Jonathon Niese 4.0
Matt Harvey 3.0
Zack Wheeler 2.0
-- David Wright having a repeat of his 2012

Ok, so basically that means having Wright repeat 2012
Ike doing as he did 2010/11 (sans injury)
Tejada playing 150 games
Murphy hitting more like 2011
d'Arnaud transitioning well to the MLB

Niese taking a little step up

None by themselves is extremely unlikely, all hitting...
   8. depletion Posted: January 04, 2013 at 03:40 PM (#4339210)
#1. I see you've been tasked with the Beatles reunion as well.
When I read that Omar has been signed to the Mets, I knew that it was time to completely stop thinking they are going to win any games. The early '80's Mets had these qualities: a few good players like Craig Swan or Rusty Staub, a few fair players with a flaw in their games, the rest... merde. Travis D'Catcher is not going to contribute much as he will probably play half the year, or more, in the minors. Wake me up when they get a new owner.
   9. RMc is Fairly Irrefutable Posted: January 04, 2013 at 09:15 PM (#4339412)
With the Mets' luck, they'll be twenty-five plane crashes, wiping out every team outside the NL East.
   10. Benji Posted: January 05, 2013 at 02:17 AM (#4339507)
Yes, with the worst OF in the history of baseball and a bullpen that won't even approach last year's ineptitude they are a real playoff threat.
   11. PreservedFish Posted: January 05, 2013 at 03:45 AM (#4339517)
When I read that Omar has been signed to the Mets, I knew that it was time to completely stop thinking they are going to win any games.

Oh, I'm glad they got him back. I was actually kind of impressed with him last year. Career .300/.368/.448 hitter in the minors, lefty, decent defender ... potentially solid utility player right there.
   12. zachtoma Posted: January 05, 2013 at 05:17 AM (#4339525)
Four plane crashes?

Actually the Mets can make the playoffs in as few as two plane crashes, assuming the Nats and Braves crash into each other, as do the Marlins and Phillies.
   13. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 05, 2013 at 08:17 AM (#4339541)
The Mets aren't good, but they're probably 10 games better than the Marlins. The Marlins are really terrible.
   14. CrosbyBird Posted: January 05, 2013 at 10:33 AM (#4339585)
None by themselves is extremely unlikely, all hitting...

That's the way the Mets crush my soul most seasons. There are ten things that, individually, don't sound outrageously unlikely, but even ten fifty-fifty propositions don't break even once in a thousand times.

I'm not buying in 2013.
   15. Swoboda is freedom Posted: January 05, 2013 at 10:40 AM (#4339593)
Four plane crashes?

We don't have to be this drastic. Just assign the Mets medical staff to the other teams.
   16. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 05, 2013 at 03:23 PM (#4339719)
The Pirates just released Rick Vandenhurk. His major league numbers are pretty bad and he's 27 years old so he isn't going t win any Cy Youngs but he was pretty good in the minors last year. He's got a pretty good fastball and I think he'd be worth a minor league contract to compete for the fifth spot in the rotation.

The Mets have signed Aaron Laffey and are rumored to be interested in re-signing Chris Young. I think I like Vandenhurk more than those guys.
   17. beer on a stick Posted: January 05, 2013 at 03:45 PM (#4339733)
The Marlins plane can land safely!

I don't think the Marlins will be flying next season. Double A teams bus.
   18. valuearbitrageur Posted: January 05, 2013 at 04:59 PM (#4339768)
Is it too late for the single plane crash scenario, I.e the Wilpons family jet, to save this season?
   19. Joey B. is counting the days to Trea Turner Posted: January 06, 2013 at 12:41 PM (#4340040)
Where's Jim Mora Senior when you really need him?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.



<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF


Thanks to
for his generous support.


You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogHeyman - MLB Replay System Needs To Be Redefined
(12 - 9:45pm, Oct 21)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogOTP 2016 Oct 17: Politics, Sports, and the 'League of Legends' World Championship
(1914 - 9:43pm, Oct 21)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

NewsblogCharlie Sheen Responds to Indians Fans Demanding he Throw the First Pitch at the World Series
(45 - 9:42pm, Oct 21)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogBill Murray Bernie Macs the Cubs
(6 - 9:28pm, Oct 21)
Last: Spahn Insane, stimulus-funded BurlyMan™

Newsblogred sox - Inside story of David Ortiz's injury: 'He was essentially playing on stumps' - WEEI | Rob Bradford
(6 - 9:20pm, Oct 21)
Last: Joe Bivens, Floundering Pumpkin

Gonfalon CubsThe Long Wait
(102 - 9:15pm, Oct 21)
Last: SteveM.

NewsblogPutting value of Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Yasmani Grandal in the proper frame
(21 - 9:13pm, Oct 21)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogThe Oral History of Baseball on 'Seinfeld' | Complex
(59 - 9:13pm, Oct 21)
Last: Man o' Schwar

NewsblogTrevor Bauer reveals questionable taste in Star Wars movies
(184 - 9:05pm, Oct 21)
Last: Greg K

NewsblogOT: NBA 2016-17 Preseason Thread
(219 - 8:56pm, Oct 21)
Last: knowledge is STIGGLES, france is bacon

NewsblogTexas Rangers: Offseason issues: Why Rangers face tough decision in what to do with Joey Gallo | SportsDay
(28 - 7:52pm, Oct 21)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogThe Blue Jays Should Rebuild | FanGraphs Baseball
(44 - 7:42pm, Oct 21)
Last: Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos

NewsblogWhat we learned: The Dodgers can't hit Jon Lester
(23 - 7:26pm, Oct 21)
Last: Walks Clog Up the Bases

NewsblogIndians' World Series drought: 67 years of highs, lows |
(2 - 6:36pm, Oct 21)
Last: Hank G.

NewsblogESPN 2016 Ultimate Standings: Royals, Rangers lead MLB teams
(3 - 4:54pm, Oct 21)
Last: Nasty Nate

Page rendered in 0.1856 seconds
47 querie(s) executed