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Friday, January 06, 2012

How The Greg Reynolds Trade Is More Interesting Than You Think

How could it possibly be more interesting?

We’ll begin with the biggie. Reynolds, of course, was selected second overall by the Rockies in 2006. He was selected right after Luke Hochevar, and right before Evan Longoria. The Rockies’ selection of Reynolds was thought to be a reach, and it took the Rays by surprise. The Rays had another plan, assuming the Rockies would take Longoria. That plan? Andrew Friedman:

We had Evan Longoria first on our board…We thought Longoria was going to go two to Colorado, and we had cut a deal with Tim Lincecum, to take three….

Reynolds’ failures were magnified because the Rockies nearly drafted Long Beach State third baseman Evan Longoria before turning to the Stanford pitcher. At the time, the Rockies felt starting pitching was more of a priority with Garrett Atkins and [Ian] Stewart both in the fold.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 06, 2012 at 12:01 PM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: rangers, rays, rockies

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 06, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4030513)
I read after the draft that the Pirates were planning to take Reynolds if Longoria wasn't there, and the Rockies' pick really caught them by surprise.

Lincoln hasn't been great, due in part to the injury, but at least he's better than Reynolds.
   2. obsessivegiantscompulsive Posted: January 06, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4030515)
Wow, so the Rockies could have had Longoria and the Rays Lincecum! I shudder at the horror! Funny how fate works out sometimes.
   3. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 06, 2012 at 01:07 PM (#4030517)
The real lesson to take from Reynolds's failure is to never use a high pick on a Stanford pitcher. Who's the last one that didn't end up as a massive disappointment? Rick Helling?
   4. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: January 06, 2012 at 01:16 PM (#4030530)
The real lesson to take from Reynolds's failure is to never use a high pick on a Stanford pitcher.

Jack McDowell was pretty good!

I think the real lesson is always take the player you think is best regardless of position.
   5. Bad Doctor Posted: January 06, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4030534)
Mussina was Stanford too, no?

But yeah, who in the hell addresses the MLB draft by drafting for need? That should be a fireable offense.
   6. BDC Posted: January 06, 2012 at 01:21 PM (#4030538)
This trade is practically by definition more interesting than I think it is.
   7. Johnny Slick Posted: January 06, 2012 at 01:21 PM (#4030539)
Especially not with a top 5 pick. Any move you make towards need and away from best available is a potential move away from a future hall of famer.
   8. Bad Doctor Posted: January 06, 2012 at 01:22 PM (#4030541)
Also, when did Jayson Stark start writing headlines for SB Nation?
   9. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: January 06, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4030550)
Did anyone (outside of the Rox FO) like that pick at the time? Stat dorks were really down on him, among others.
   10. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: January 06, 2012 at 01:32 PM (#4030553)
Did anyone (outside of the Rox FO) like that pick at the time? Stat dorks were really down on him, among others.

As I recall, that pick was universally mocked.
   11. Tim Wallach was my Hero Posted: January 06, 2012 at 01:38 PM (#4030568)
Being a high draft doesn't garantee success, but this is interesting nonetheless. FTA:

Since 1901, 4,043 pitchers have thrown at least 90 innings in the major leagues. Reynolds' ERA of 7.47 ranks sixth-worst. [...] The worst ERA belongs to John Van Benschoten, the famed bust for the Pirates. Van Benschoten allowed 100 runs in 90 innings
.
   12. spycake Posted: January 06, 2012 at 01:46 PM (#4030580)
But yeah, who in the hell addresses the MLB draft by drafting for need? That should be a fireable offense.


I think "drafted for need" is usually just a hindsight excuse for bad scouting or a low draft budget. At most, it's probably used as sort of a "tiebreaker" slthough I could see MLB-ready relievers being an exception.
   13. baerga1 Posted: January 06, 2012 at 01:50 PM (#4030583)
Jeremy Guthrie is a Stanford man. It's tough to say he's a massive disappointment overall, although pretty easy to say he was a massive disappointment to the team that drafted him (sigh..).
   14. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: January 06, 2012 at 01:52 PM (#4030586)
Mike Mussina was a Stanford pitcher, yes, and drafted in the first round.
   15. valuearbitrageur Posted: January 06, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4030592)
Did the Rockies think Reynolds loved God more than Longoria?
   16. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: January 06, 2012 at 02:00 PM (#4030597)
Since 1901, 4,043 pitchers have thrown at least 90 innings in the major leagues. Reynolds' ERA of 7.47 ranks sixth-worst. [...] The worst ERA belongs to John Van Benschoten, the famed bust for the Pirates. Van Benschoten allowed 100 runs in 90 innings


Pretty much everyone other than the Pirates thought that Van Benschoten should've been used as a hitter rather than a pitcher. He was a closer in college and only really exceptional his last year, and also led D1 in home runs and hit 440/551/982 as a junior. I know that NCAA numbers are often very inflated, but a 1533 OPS is still ridiculous. Anyway, his shoulder blew up and that was that. I'm always a little sad when he's called a bust -- he's a great example of someone who could've had a career had the team that drafted him had possessed more sense than the Bonifay-era Pirates.
   17. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 06, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4030603)
Jack McDowell was pretty good!

Mussina was Stanford too, no?


Both good, but both picked before Helling.

Going back to 1993, the year after Helling's draft class, here are Stanford's pitchers chosen in the first ten rounds:

1 and 1s: Chris Reed, Drew Storen, Jeremy Bleich, Greg Reynolds, Jeremy Guthrie, Justin Wayne, Jeff Austin, Kyle Peterson, Willie Adams
2: Mike Gosling, Jason Young, Chad Hutchinson
3: John Hudgins, Jeremy Guthrie (did not sign), Brent Hoard
4: Nolan Gallagher, Mark Romanczuk, J.D. Brammer, Andrew Lorraine
5: Scott Snodgress, Todd Larocca
6: None
7: Mark Jecmen
8: Brandt Walker
9: David O'Hagan, Tim Cunningham, Jason Middlebrook, Mike Robbins
10: None

Reed's too early to be analyzed, Storen seems like a decent reliever, and Guthrie turned into a serviceable starter at 28 (after burning both the teams that picked him). But otherwise, that's just a big ol' pile of failed prospects.
   18. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 06, 2012 at 02:12 PM (#4030615)
I'm always a little sad when he's called a bust -- he's a great example of someone who could've had a career had the team that drafted him had possessed more sense than the Bonifay-era Pirates.


That one moment of insanity aside, Mickey White was actually a pretty decent scouting director. Lower down in the JVB draft, the Pirates took and signed seven guys who put up positive WAR in the majors: Zach Duke, Rajai Davis, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Shelton, Chris Duffy, Jon Albaladejo, and Shane Youman. And that's after new GM Littlefield came in and welched on above-slot pre-draft agreements with Jeremy Guthrie and Stephen Drew.

The year before that? Jose Bautista, Chris Young (the pitcher), Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, and Sean Burnett.
   19. philly Posted: January 06, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4030623)
One interesting aspect to the idea that the Rays would have taken Lincecum if Longoria was gone is that while they still would have gotten a great player they would have had one who seems to want to maximize his earnings pre-FA earnings with short contracts.

Maybe Lincecum the Ray would have behaved much differently than Lincecum the Giant, but the Rays medium term future would be a lot different if they were forced into a position where they had to trade Lincecum before he got too expensive as opposed to enjoying the unbeleivable favorable Longoria contract.
   20. JPWF1313 Posted: January 06, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4030636)
Worst ERA+ 90+ ip:

John Van Benschoten 47
Andy Larkin 49
Cap Crowell 55


Worst ERA+ 300+ ip:

Lefty Hoerst 67
Ray Harrell 70
Ruben Quevedo 70
Gene Wright 70
Jo-Jo Reyes 70
Lowell Palmer 70

Worst ERA+ 900+ ip:

Phil Ortega 75
Pete Broberg 78
Gus Dorner 78
Todd Van Poppel 80

Worst ERA+ 2000+ ip:

Casey Patten 88
Bob Harmon 90
Jaime Navarro 91
Bobby Witt 91

the worst with 3000+ IP was Livan Hernandez
"worst" with 4000 is Jamie Moyer
wort with 5000 is Don Sutton
   21. Jim Wisinski Posted: January 06, 2012 at 02:38 PM (#4030648)
One interesting aspect to the idea that the Rays would have taken Lincecum if Longoria was gone is that while they still would have gotten a great player they would have had one who seems to want to maximize his earnings pre-FA earnings with short contracts.

Maybe Lincecum the Ray would have behaved much differently than Lincecum the Giant, but the Rays medium term future would be a lot different if they were forced into a position where they had to trade Lincecum before he got too expensive as opposed to enjoying the unbeleivable favorable Longoria contract.


Yeah, it would definitely have changed things up. That draft does well to illustrate how having those high draft picks is only part of the battle, the opportunity is there but the team still has to make the right picks. There ended up being three prime talents at the top of the draft (Longoria, Kershaw, and Lincecum) but it took 10 picks for them to be taken. In this case the Rays identified the top two players in the draft correctly and would have benefited greatly whether the Rockies made a dumb decision or not. Other times they haven't done that, Buster Posey would have made them a much better team in the short-term than Tim Beckham and it's doubtful that Beckham will turn things to their advantage in the long-term either.
   22. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: January 06, 2012 at 02:42 PM (#4030654)
which college has produced the best starting rotation?

Stanford:
Black Jack McDowell
Jim Lonborg
Mussina
ummm, ummm,. ..Rick Helling (??)

Texas:
Hooten
Clemens
Swindell
Shane Reynolds


USC:
Seaver
Randy Johnson
Bill Lee
Barry Zito

I think Southern Cal wins in a landslide

   23. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 06, 2012 at 02:52 PM (#4030670)
Also on the 2006 draft, I listened to an interview a few months ago with Dayton Moore. He was hired by the Royals as GM a few weeks before the draft, but was not slated to go on the job til after the draft and said he would not participate in the draft. But the team did ask his advice as to who he thought was the #1 best talent. He advised they take Luke Hochevar over Andrew Miller because he was concerned Miller had red flags with injuries.

So out of Longoria, Lincecum, Kershaw, etc. Dayton thought Luke Hochevar and Andrew Miller were the best. To be fair, Miller was considered by many the best talent in the draft and only slid because of high bonus demands. After that IIRC, the feeling was that Brad Lincoln, Luke Hochevar, Evan Longoria and Tim Lincecum were the next best available, but there was no consensus on who that was, although the stat community loved Lincecum.
   24. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 06, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4030717)
which college has produced the best starting rotation?


A few others:

Illinois:
Ken Holtzman
Cy Falkenberg
Carl Lundgren
Fred Beebe
Dick Barrett

Notre Dame:
Ed Reulbach
Ron Reed
Jean Dubuc
Jim Hannan
Norwood Gibson

LSU:
Ben McDonald
Paul Byrd
Mike Sirotka
Chad Ogea
Mark Guthrie

Michigan:
Jim Abbott
Geoff Zahn
Larry Sorensen
Scott Kamieniecki
Pete Appleton

Michigan State:
Robin Roberts
Mark Mulder
Jack Kralick
Bob Anderson
Don Gross

Fordham(!):
Ed Walsh
Pete Harnisch
Dick Rudolph
Hank Borowy
Sad Sam Zoldak/Jack Lynch/Doc Scanlan
   25. Mayor Blomberg Posted: January 06, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4030754)
Did the Rockies think Reynolds loved God more than Longoria?


How much does Reynolds love Longoria?
   26. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: January 06, 2012 at 05:40 PM (#4030780)
USC:
Seaver
Randy Johnson
Bill Lee
Barry Zito


Ian Kennedy someday too. Of course, Mark Prior was the "someday" guy at one point.
   27. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: January 06, 2012 at 05:57 PM (#4030790)
USC

Is Jim Barr gonna have to choke a #####?

McGwire started at USC as a pitcher. So he can pinch-hit late and then come in and close.
   28. ckash Posted: January 06, 2012 at 07:57 PM (#4030872)
University of Kentucky:

Brandon Webb
Joe Blanton
Paul Kilgus
Bill VanLandingham
Scott Downs

plus Seattle prospect James Paxton

Not bad for (until recently) an SEC doormat.
   29. puck Posted: January 06, 2012 at 08:37 PM (#4030892)
The real lesson to take from Reynolds's failure is to never use a high pick on a Stanford pitcher. Who's the last one that didn't end up as a massive disappointment? Rick Helling?


They also used a 2nd rounder on Jason Young in 2000.
   30. It's a shame about Athletic Supporter Posted: January 06, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4030898)
How The Greg Reynolds Trade Is More Interesting Than You Think


He's right, but I mean, this was not a very high bar to clear.
   31. Walt Davis Posted: January 06, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4030922)
How can you pitch McGwire and not Kingman?

Mississippi State

Willie Mitchell
Paul Maholm
Sammy Ellis
Dave Ferriss
Bunny Hearn (probably) but ...

Papelbon
Thigpen
Brantley
Jay Powell
Ken Tatum

is a pretty kickass bullpen

A couple of pretty good hitters too.

I'd never heard of Tatum but in addition to his good (but short-lived) pitching, he hit 244/306/533 (51 PA) for the 3rd highest ML OPS for Miss St players.
   32. Johnny Slick Posted: January 06, 2012 at 10:41 PM (#4030945)
A couple more:

University of Washington
-------------------------
Tim Lincecum
Um, Aaron Myette...
...ah, Sean White was a decent reliever for a couple years. Teach him another pitch?

WSU
-------------------------
John Olerud (okay, stretching things a bit but he was a tremendous college pitcher before he had an anyeurism)
Aaron Sele
Jim Conley
Mark Hendrickson
Cliff Chambers

CL: Tom Niedenfuer

I hate, hate, hate that the Cougs's all time team destroys U-Dub's.

Bucknell
---------
Christy Mathewson
Some 19th century guy (Billy Rhines)
Bob Keegan
IT DOESN'T MATTER CHRISTY MATHEWSON
   33. Walt Davis Posted: January 07, 2012 at 12:05 AM (#4030998)
Let's try this ...

there are 6 MLers of note who attended the Univ of Cincinnati.

1 is Mike Hershberger who I've never heard of so I'll give you him.

1 has a famous name but not a famous baseball name.

1 is a well-known current player.

1 is the topic of an article on today's BBTF.

The other 2 are in the HoF.
   34. Walt Davis Posted: January 07, 2012 at 12:05 AM (#4030999)
By the way, I note that b-r doesn't sum WAR by school on their school totals page ... surely somebody's done this article.

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