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Tuesday, May 01, 2018

Should Dodgers acquire Manny Machado in wake of Corey Seager injury?

Corey Seager is out for the season. Manny Machado could be available now.

On paper? It’s a match. In reality? Let’s just say that we wouldn’t suggest you plan on buying a Machado jersey in the Dodgers gift shop.

Questions and answers about the obvious free-agent-to-be and the Dodgers’ needs in the wake of the Seager injury.

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 01, 2018 at 01:31 AM | 63 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: corey seager, dodgers, manny machado, sure, why not

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   1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2018 at 09:04 AM (#5663476)
Because of Taylor's flexibility, the Dodgers have options here. They can just as easily go get an OF.
   2. Nasty Nate Posted: May 01, 2018 at 09:15 AM (#5663483)
There's a small chance they go in the opposite direction: If they continue to be below .500, they could become sellers in mid-season, and could trade away Ryu and Grandal and others. And then go blasting back above the luxury tax threshold in the off-season.

That hypothetical is unlikely, but possible.
   3. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: May 01, 2018 at 09:23 AM (#5663488)
I mean the answer to "should a team acquire Manny Machado" is always yes. Dude is a star. Just looking at the Dodgers they are very very good still. Off to a slow start but between Taylor, Hernandez and Pederson (playing center to move Taylor) they are as well equipped to handle such an injury as any team in baseball. Baseball isn't basketball where the loss of one player can be devastating. It hurts as does the slow start but I'd still pick them to win 90 games.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2018 at 09:38 AM (#5663498)
I mean the answer to "should a team acquire Manny Machado" is always yes.

No. The answer is always "what's the price".

Historically teams have done well acquiring superstars; the prospect cost is almost never what we would consider fair. But, the Orioles are notoriously hard to deal with, and the Dodgers are in a weak negotiating position.
   5. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 01, 2018 at 10:50 AM (#5663555)
In the other thread I brought up the luxury tax issue. Had the Dodgers blown past it this offseason, I think their team would look a little different (and perhaps better), and it'd be a lot easier for them to add Machado. If they did add him and couldn't send out other salary, they'd end up paying the tax anyway. Someone like Machado probably won't get moved right away - so there's a chance the Dodgers could struggle enough (like #2 says) to convince them it's not worth paying the tax this year.

OTOH, I think I'll be shocked if Machado is actually traded. Surely the O's will demand a huge price for him, and I bet almost no one will really want to match it with being able to sign him to an extension first. Add that the the overall hesitance of the O's to trade anyone when it seems like they should.

So no, I don't think the Dodgers add Machado. I bet they find someone they already have in their system that goes all Chris Taylor this year and helps them out and they're just fine.
   6. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: May 01, 2018 at 11:06 AM (#5663571)
I think the struggles of the Dodgers has to be the biggest story of the first month of the season.

8 games back? Yikes.
   7. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 01, 2018 at 11:11 AM (#5663578)
They're 1-6 against the DBacks so far this year. Didn't the DBacks win a bunch of games in a row against the Dodgers last year during the LAD late season swoon? That didn't matter in the playoffs - oddly enough - but it's also quite interesting to see this same team just beat up on them so much.
   8. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: May 01, 2018 at 11:19 AM (#5663587)
They're 1-6 against the DBacks so far this year. Didn't the DBacks win a bunch of games in a row against the Dodgers last year during the LAD late season swoon? That didn't matter in the playoffs - oddly enough - but it's also quite interesting to see this same team just beat up on them so much.


This brings up an interesting point. The Dodgers are now 28-40 over their last 68 regular season games. Yay selective end points (and leaving out the playoffs which they succeeded while playing the best of the best). Still, that's a longer term stretch than you want to see. It makes me wonder if Roberts is not able to motivate his team. Basically the Dodgers packed it in when they had the division sealed last year, turned it on for the playoffs, then came into this season fully expecting to coast to the division title so with no concerns they have hit the ground crawling rather than running.

That's probably a load of BS but that's nearly half a season of pretty bad baseball from a very talented team.
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2018 at 11:24 AM (#5663593)
That's probably a load of BS but that's nearly half a season of pretty bad baseball from a very talented team.

The issue is the talent hasn't performed, or hasn't been on the field.

Turner has missed the whole season, Hill was bad, then hurt, Puig and Forsythe were terrible, then hurt. Jansen has been bad. Wood and Taylor have been mediocre.

Maybe this team isn't as good as we thought?

   10. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: May 01, 2018 at 11:39 AM (#5663614)
Forsythe and Taylor are very high up on my list of "Are you kidding me?!?!!" players... but then, you've got guys like Pederson who sure seem like they're better than they've played.

Words nobody ever expected to type: Imagine where they'd be without Matt Kemp...

   11. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 01, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5663619)
I will repeat to the author of this piece (and anyone who endorses it) what I said before: GFY.
   12. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: May 01, 2018 at 11:44 AM (#5663621)
The injuries are giving Chase Utley a chance to pad some counting stats for his HOF case though - who knows, maybe he can get to 2000 hits.
   13. perros Posted: May 01, 2018 at 12:42 PM (#5663672)
Last season, the Dodgers played four months revving all eight cylinders. Everybody not named Pedro Baez had a stellar season (only slight exaggeration). The very best teams lose 60-plus games a season, every year, with very few exceptions.

I'm not sure why you would expect any coasting, and I'd wager that's not the case with the Dodgers. What goes up, must come down.

Also, they really miss Ginger Boy. Should't have cut his hair.
   14. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: May 01, 2018 at 01:12 PM (#5663703)
I will repeat to the author of this piece (and anyone who endorses it) what I said before: GFY.


Do you think there is ANY chance the Orioles will re-sign him? I don't like the Orioles or Machado but I always like when teams can keep their superstars and Machado certainly fits the bill for Baltimore.
   15. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 01, 2018 at 01:18 PM (#5663708)
Do you think there is ANY chance the Orioles will re-sign him? I don't like the Orioles or Machado but I always like when teams can keep their superstars and Machado certainly fits the bill for Baltimore.

My sentiment exactly. That $115 million they've got tied up in Chris "Albatross" Davis sure could've been used for much better purposes.
   16. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 01, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5663712)
In the other thread I brought up the luxury tax issue. Had the Dodgers blown past it this offseason, I think their team would look a little different (and perhaps better), and it'd be a lot easier for them to add Machado. If they did add him and couldn't send out other salary, they'd end up paying the tax anyway. Someone like Machado probably won't get moved right away - so there's a chance the Dodgers could struggle enough (like #2 says) to convince them it's not worth paying the tax this year.

The Dodgers have a little room for maneuver here. They're reported to be $15M under the luxury tax threshold, and Machado is making $16M in his last arbitration year. But we're already a month into the season, and a Machado deal might take another month or so to be completed, maybe longer if it goes closer to the trade deadline. So Machado's pro-rated salary might count ~ $12M toward the cap. That doesn't leave them much space for any other moves this season, but they might think it was worth running that risk. They certainly don't care about making a small luxury tax payment, but they won't want to miss the opportunity to reset the tax rate.
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2018 at 01:51 PM (#5663730)
The Dodgers have a little room for maneuver here. They're reported to be $15M under the luxury tax threshold, and Machado is making $16M in his last arbitration year. But we're already a month into the season, and a Machado deal might take another month or so to be completed, maybe longer if it goes closer to the trade deadline. So Machado's pro-rated salary might count ~ $12M toward the cap. That doesn't leave them much space for any other moves this season, but they might think it was worth running that risk. They certainly don't care about making a small luxury tax payment, but they won't want to miss the opportunity to reset the tax rate.

They could always give the O's more talent to get them to eat some $.
   18. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 01, 2018 at 02:38 PM (#5663754)
They could always give the O's more talent to get them to eat some $.
Alternatively, how much $ do you think they'd have to give the O's to get them to eat their talent?
   19. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: May 01, 2018 at 02:43 PM (#5663758)
Alternatively, how much $ do you think they'd have to give the O's to get them to eat their talent?


How do you think Peter Angelos stays alive?
   20. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: May 01, 2018 at 02:47 PM (#5663762)
   21. bfan Posted: May 01, 2018 at 02:48 PM (#5663763)
Do you think there is ANY chance the Orioles will re-sign him?


I would think the problem here is that there would be an expensive home-town premium; the Orioles suck so badly that I would want a lot more money to sign with them than I would take for the privilege of playing for the Red Sox or Cubs or one of the other gifts from God to baseball.
   22. jmurph Posted: May 01, 2018 at 03:04 PM (#5663776)
I would think the problem here is that there would be an expensive home-town premium; the Orioles suck so badly that I would want a lot more money to sign with them than I would take for the privilege of playing for the Red Sox or Cubs or one of the other gifts from God to baseball.

I'm marginally out of the loop on all teams but my own (the Red Sox) until the NBA/soccer seasons end: which of the rich teams are in need of a SS?

EDIT: Or if he's willing to go back to 3rd, that obviously helps.
   23. Greg Pope Posted: May 01, 2018 at 03:27 PM (#5663794)
I'm marginally out of the loop on all teams but my own (the Red Sox) until the NBA/soccer seasons end: which of the rich teams are in need of a SS?

I think the Cubs probably make a play for Harper instead, but I could see them signing Machado and moving Russell to another team.
   24. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 01, 2018 at 03:35 PM (#5663800)
In a way, Machado probably is a better fit. It would be a lot, lot, lot, lot easier to move Russell (and get something for him) than trying to move Heyward.

Per Heyman:
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman 21h21 hours ago

the dodgers were one of nine teams that made a real run at Machado at some point this winter/spring. the others: yankees, cubs, Red Sox, white sox, Indians, dbacks, cardinals, Phillies


Some of those make more sense than others.
   25. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: May 01, 2018 at 03:38 PM (#5663804)
The MLB royalty is all pretty set with their current options for the long haul and/or has blue chip prospects knocking on the door so far as SS/3B go. The Angels at 3B are the only team without a longterm option already in house.

Of course, as Greg says - Machado would be an upgrade for any of them and also leave them with a tasty trade chit to get something else they need...

I'm not saying I expect Machado to get Moustakas'ed... Just that it will be an interesting market if he hits it. I would expect all of them to inquire, but when push comes to shove, ink hits the contract, and dollar signs start showing up in front of big numbers... who really is going to get it done?

If there's one promising thing to Oriole hopes of keeping him, it seems to me that none of the usual high bidder suspects would be especially all in on Machado.
   26. Nasty Nate Posted: May 01, 2018 at 03:50 PM (#5663811)
The MLB royalty is all pretty set with their current options for the long haul and/or has blue chip prospects knocking on the door so far as SS/3B go.
... who really is going to get it done?
Maybe the White Sox come barging in to jump-start their rebuild.
   27. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: May 01, 2018 at 03:56 PM (#5663817)
Maybe the White Sox come barging in to jump-start their rebuild.


I think both the White Sox and Tigers are interesting candidates in this regard. Machado is almost surely looking at an 8 year deal minimum so being in some kind of "competitive window" isn't something teams should be worried about and both of those teams have some ability to spend. The Tigers in particular played a similar game with Ivan Rodriguez to kickoff their return to competitiveness after the 119 loss season.
   28. The Duke Posted: May 01, 2018 at 04:43 PM (#5663884)
What are the chances that players sent to the orioles in a trade for Machado would pass a physical?

I wouldn’t want to deal with them
   29. Walt Davis Posted: May 01, 2018 at 04:56 PM (#5663890)
I assume the Phils still have a bejillion to spend and it's close to Baltimore so Manny would save on moving costs!

Pitches like that explain why I've never landed a major free agent.

Manny >>> Russell but signing an outstanding player but then flipping an excellent one is a torturous way to improve a team. And sure you're stuck with Heyward's salary if you sign Harper but you're stuck with it if you sign Manny. That's the beauty of (nearly but not technically) sunk costs -- they have the same effect on all future investment decisions and therefore don't play a role in choosing. In short, a Cub team with Harper and Russell and Heyward is better than a team with Machado and Heyward ... so they need to get some very nice return for Russell (which of course they can do whether they sign Harper, Machado or nobody).

Of course the comparative costs of Harper and Machado factor into that decision as well.
   30. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: May 01, 2018 at 05:13 PM (#5663900)
I think both the White Sox and Tigers are interesting candidates in this regard. Machado is almost surely looking at an 8 year deal minimum so being in some kind of "competitive window" isn't something teams should be worried about and both of those teams have some ability to spend. The Tigers in particular played a similar game with Ivan Rodriguez to kickoff their return to competitiveness after the 119 loss season.


The Tigers? Why? So they can pay him 25 million a year to help them win 75 games instead of 70? The Tigers have one of the bleakest futures in baseball. They are basically in the position the White Sox were in 2015 except there's no Adam Eaton, Chris Sale and Jose Quintana to turn a bottom 5 farm into a top 5 farm and produce a Moncada, Kopech, Jimenez etc. (FWIW Moncada currently leads Sale in fWAR, apples to oranges I know but it's a fun fact for White Sox fans at the moment.)

The White Sox could use him but I'm not sure it's a good investment. Yolmer Sanchez looks like a perfectly cromulent 2-3 WAR 3B and you hope by the time 2020 rolls around Tim Anderson has put his growing pains behind him at SS. I'd rather spend the money on whatever spot looks weakest heading into 2020. It makes more sense to wait and evaluate imo.

That said, if they do sign him it's all systems go for 2019. You move Yolmer to super utility man and if the young pitching arrives as you'd hope, a long with Eloy, that's a squad to dream on.

Abreu
Moncada
TA
Machado

around the horn with a FA catcher and in the OF you've got

Jimenez
Robert/Basabe/FA stopgap
Rutherford/Basabe/Delmonico/FA stopgap

pitching staff

Kopech
Rodon
Hansen
Reynaldo
Dunning/Giolito

with many more guys waiting in the wings still in the minors or converted to flame throwing relievers.

Sox rebuild is looking really good right now. They just got good news on Hansen he's going to be starting his throwing program this week after experiencing forearm soreness in spring. Of anybody other than Kopech, he's got the highest ceiling. Hopefully he can stay healthy. But, if he doesn't, there's more talent around. That's the beauty of the depth they've got right now.
   31. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 01, 2018 at 05:15 PM (#5663903)
the dodgers were one of nine teams that made a real run at Machado at some point this winter/spring. the others: yankees, cubs, Red Sox, white sox, Indians, dbacks, cardinals, Phillies

Some of those make more sense than others.

The Yankees make no sense at all, not with Andujar (age 23), Didi (28) and Gleyber (21), and not with the near-certainty that Manny's contract would put them back into luxury tax territory. They need starting pitching much more than they need infielders.
   32. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: May 01, 2018 at 05:23 PM (#5663911)
The Tigers? Why? So they can pay him 25 million a year to help them win 75 games instead of 70? The Tigers have one of the bleakest futures in baseball. They are basically in the position the White Sox were in 2015 except there's no Adam Eaton, Chris Sale and Jose Quintana to turn a bottom 5 farm into a top 5 farm and produce a Moncada, Kopech, Jimenez etc. (FWIW Moncada currently leads Sale in fWAR, apples to oranges I know but it's a fun fact for White Sox fans at the moment.)


Well there future gets better if they have Manny Machado playing for them. Yeah, adding Manny alone gets them from 70 to 75 but you know what, that's called "getting better." If you wait for that one player who is going to get you from 70 to 90 wins then you will always win 70 games (see Pirates, Pittsburgh circa 1993-2007). Add Machado next winter, add a couple of pieces in 2020 and by 2021 there is no reason they can't compete.

Everyone mocked the Royals for trading Wil Myers for James Shields but two years later they were in the World Series. Ivan Rodriguez seemed like a pointless move by the 119 loss Tigers but 3 years later, World Series appearance, Jayson Werth to the Nationals, they were division champs 2 years later (I think it was 2, maybe 3). I'll go full Casey and say you get better by getting better.
   33. Buck Coats Posted: May 01, 2018 at 05:44 PM (#5663924)
^^^I agree with that, but that's also an argument why Baltimore should re-sign him!
   34. Walt Davis Posted: May 02, 2018 at 01:58 AM (#5664191)
Ahh yes, the 43-win Tigers. The aftermath ....

1. They made excellent use of that draft choice, grabbing Verlander. He debuted the middle of the next season so got 6.5 years out of him before FA (they extended him before he got to it) and he produced 28 WAR. I don't think it was the Tigers intent to win only 48 games but at least they got good return on that "investment."

2. As to unwise investments, the Mariners made one in post-fluke Rich Aurilia and doubled down on that questionable decision-making by trading average (and about to get much better) SS Carlos Guillen to the Tigers for pretty much nothing.

3. The Jeremy Giambi fallout matured a bit -- Pena and Bonderman were decent in 2004 and a couple more years.

4. Rondell White was the other big FA signing. My brain first thinks "Rondell White played as late as 2004" ... then my brain realizes how long ago 2004 was ... then my brain gets depressed. All the fault of the 2003 Tigers.

5. Ugueth Urbina -- why the 2004 Tigers though they needed a closer much less a murderer is a mystery but he was a very late signing (March 29) so what the heck.

The 2004 Tigers were 29 real wins and 30 pythag wins better than the 2003 mob. Guillen, Pudge and White combined for 11 WAR ... and some of what they were replacing was negative WAR. The position players improved by 21 WAA to above-average which is a neat trick.

All that earned them the 10th pick in 2005 and they did pretty well again with Cameron Maybin who got shipped along in the Miggy trade. In fact Verlander, Maybin, Miller, Porcello was a nice run of 1st rounders.
   35. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: May 02, 2018 at 07:51 AM (#5664214)
^^^I agree with that, but that's also an argument why Baltimore should re-sign him!


Well yeah but it doesn't seem like anyone expects that. I'm not sure why. They should have the money to be able to afford him and as others have noted he can play shortstop for them which he seems to want to do.
   36. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 02, 2018 at 08:28 AM (#5664224)
Well yeah but it doesn't seem like anyone expects that. I'm not sure why. They should have the money to be able to afford him and as others have noted he can play shortstop for them which he seems to want to do.
The Orioles' m.o. is to refuse to spend money on great players, eventually (this can take a couple of years) get desperate and throw a lot of money at a second tier player, watch that player not earn the contract, and then get gunshy and not be willing to spend money again. This... doesn't work.

But after throwing away a ton of money on Chris Davis, Angelos doesn't want to pay Machado. (To be fair, the Orioles were in a no-win situation with Davis. It was entirely foreseeable that he'd crash, but at the same time they were desperate for a big bat in their lineup at the moment he became an FA. They probably should've kept Nelson Cruz...)
   37. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 02, 2018 at 11:38 AM (#5664386)
The Yankees make no sense at all, not with Andujar (age 23), Didi (28) and Gleyber (21), and not with the near-certainty that Manny's contract would put them back into luxury tax territory. They need starting pitching much more than they need infielders.

I think Machado makes a ton of sense.

Sign him, and use either Andujar or Gregorius (if Machado insists on playing SS) to trade for young SP.

There aren't going to be any 6 win, 26 y.o. SPs on the FA market. I'd much rather pay the FA hitter.

   38. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 02, 2018 at 01:20 PM (#5664525)
I think Machado makes a ton of sense. Sign him, and use either Andujar or Gregorius (if Machado insists on playing SS) to trade for young SP. There aren't going to be any 6 win, 26 y.o. SPs on the FA market. I'd much rather pay the FA hitter.


I'd prefer the Yanks not trade the prospects needed to make that kind of a deal, and then have to pay the free agent market price to retain Machado. Even waiting until Machado hits free agency will still cost a ton, and impact luxury tax decisions in years when Judge, Sanchez Severino & hopefully many more newly established stars have to be paid market rates. There's also no guarantee that trading Gregorius would bring the desired return. How many teams need a shortstop but have excess quality pitching they are willing to move? Once the Yankees sign Machado, offers would factor in that Gregorius had to be traded and may not include that top level pitching. Gregorius isn't a free agent until after 2019, so the Yanks could wait, or use their leverage to get him a little bit cheaper this offseason. Less risk & cost, plus more certainty, with sticking to Didi. Machado is a tempting acquisition, but I'm thinking the price is likely to be too high, and the in-house option works pretty well.
   39. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 02, 2018 at 01:35 PM (#5664532)
I'd prefer the Yanks not trade the prospects needed to make that kind of a deal, and then have to pay the free agent market price to retain Machado.

I wouldn't trade for him, but I would sign him after the season.

Even waiting until Machado hits free agency will still cost a ton, and impact luxury tax decisions in years when Judge, Sanchez Severino & hopefully many more newly established stars have to be paid market rates.

The Yankees have plenty of money. They can extend those guys early and buy out a couple of FA years. You're probably not going to want Judge or Sanchez for more than 6-7 years anyway.

There's also no guarantee that trading Gregorius would bring the desired return. How many teams need a shortstop but have excess quality pitching they are willing to move? Once the Yankees sign Machado, offers would factor in that Gregorius had to be traded and may not include that top level pitching.

I'm not sure why you think the Yankees need an ace. Wins are all created equal. Replacing Andujar with Machado is likely a 3-4 wins improvement. You can accept a lesser SP.
   40. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 02, 2018 at 01:47 PM (#5664546)
If the argument is that you only want Sanchez & Judge for another 6-7 years, I don't see how that supports signing Machado for the 8-10 years many expect his free agent contract to cover. And if all wins are created equal, there are a lot of ways to go after them without signing Machado for $300M+. That's going to preclude a lot of other options, even for the Yankees.
   41. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 02, 2018 at 01:55 PM (#5664555)
If the argument is that you only want Sanchez & Judge for another 6-7 years, I don't see how that supports signing Machado for the 8-10 years many expect his free agent contract to cover. And if all wins are created equal, there are a lot of ways to go after them without signing Machado for $300M+. That's going to preclude a lot of other options, even for the Yankees.

Machado is the same age as Sanchez, and is younger than Judge, and will likely be good far longer because he was an elite major league player at age 20, and is not a C.

If you sign Machado for 10/300, he'll likely still be very good when the next generation of prospects emerge. Judge and Sanchez are likely to have steep declines in their early 30s, due to being a late bloomer and a C, respectively.

If paying Stanton doesn't preclude a lot of option, then paying Machado won't either. Machado's better than Stanton.

If Didi keeps up his offense improvements, you can easily play him and Machado. I'm sure Didi would be fine at 3B.

Andujar isn't that good a prospect to block signing Machado. I don't know if that good a prospect exists.

   42. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 02, 2018 at 02:37 PM (#5664593)
The Yankees make no sense at all, not with Andujar (age 23), Didi (28) and Gleyber (21), and not with the near-certainty that Manny's contract would put them back into luxury tax territory. They need starting pitching much more than they need infielders.

I think Machado makes a ton of sense.

Sign him, and use either Andujar or Gregorius (if Machado insists on playing SS) to trade for young SP.

There aren't going to be any 6 win, 26 y.o. SPs on the FA market. I'd much rather pay the FA hitter


I'd rather have Andujar and the extra money than have Machado and the return of the luxury tax.

And to be honest, I'd rather Manny remain an Oriole, however unlikely a prospect that may seem. Grabbing stars from the Marlins or some non-AL East team is one thing, but I'd rather see the best division in baseball be able to keep its own players. YMMV
   43. PreservedFish Posted: May 02, 2018 at 02:42 PM (#5664596)

I'd rather have Andujar and the extra money than have Machado and the return of the luxury tax.

Why? Are you paying for it?
   44. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 02, 2018 at 02:43 PM (#5664597)
I'd rather have Andujar and the extra money than have Machado and the return of the luxury tax.

Who cares about the luxury tax? The goal was to reset it so the rates are lower, not to never pay it again. The Yankees payroll is lower than it was in 2004.

And it's Andujar + $ vs. Machado + the trade return on Andujar. I don't think you can buy a good enough player on the open market to make the keep Andujar side come out ahead.

For a team like the Yankees, who are always flirting with the tax boundary, long contracts to elite players are more tax efficient b/c they suppress the AAV. You're not going to get 6 wins for $30M AAV elsewhere in the FA market.
   45. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: May 02, 2018 at 04:09 PM (#5664728)
the best division in baseball


Is this the consensus among other people here?
   46. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: May 02, 2018 at 04:17 PM (#5664740)
Is this the consensus among other people here?


I haven't given it much (read: any) thought but off the cuff I'd say there isn't a lot to choose from among the ALE, ALW, NLC and NLW. The AL Central is a tire fire and the NL East probably is too but gets more interesting if two of Atlanta, Philadelphia or New York are able to keep going.
   47. bfan Posted: May 02, 2018 at 04:31 PM (#5664760)
The tire fire of the NL east is 75-68 (which plays to a seasonal record of 85-77).
   48. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 02, 2018 at 04:34 PM (#5664763)
Who cares about the luxury tax? The goal was to reset it so the rates are lower, not to never pay it again.

You lose a lot of the benefit of resetting the luxury tax if you then remain consistently above the threshold - you're back where you started. There's also the new draft pick penalties for exceeding the threshold by more than $20M. Ideally, you want to be just under most years, and go modestly over the threshold for a year or two at a time when the talent warrants it. MLB has made it too costly in money & talent to just ignore the tax threshold.
   49. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: May 02, 2018 at 04:37 PM (#5664766)
I don't think the AL East is that great. I think the Yankees and Red Sox are both really good teams. The Rays and Blue Jays are overperforming, and IMO not in a Braves/Phillies/Mets sort of way. I guess time will tell and we really don't know anything yet; but when I think of a great division top to bottom the AL East wouldn't even occur to me.
   50. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 02, 2018 at 04:59 PM (#5664789)
There's also the new draft pick penalties for exceeding the threshold by more than $20M.

Then don't exceed it by >$20M.
   51. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 02, 2018 at 05:06 PM (#5664797)
but when I think of a great division top to bottom the AL East wouldn't even occur to me.

Every division has at least one terrible team. The AL East can still be the best division even if it's not a great division.
   52. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: May 02, 2018 at 05:10 PM (#5664801)
The AL East can still be the best division even if it's not a great division.


I understand. I misspoke when I said top to bottom. What I meant was, 4 out of 5 of the teams at least are very good. I do not believe that the Jays or the Rays will top 77 wins this season.
   53. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 02, 2018 at 05:17 PM (#5664806)
I don't think the AL East is that great. I think the Yankees and Red Sox are both really good teams. The Rays and Blue Jays are overperforming, and IMO not in a Braves/Phillies/Mets sort of way. I guess time will tell and we really don't know anything yet; but when I think of a great division top to bottom the AL East wouldn't even occur to me.

Obviously there aren't any "great" divisions if you go by that standard, but the AL East has 2 very good teams, 2 teams that at least respectable, and then there's the Orioles.

I'd respect the AL West a bit more if the Angels hadn't so completely fouled their bed when they lost 6 straight home** games to the Red Sox and the Yankees. Houston is at least on the Bos/NY level, but that's but one team.

And until the National League starts winning interleague and All-Star games a bit more consistently than they have in recent years, I'm going to be skeptical about any claims for any NL division. Obviously things can change, but for now there's little question that the AL is the superior league.

** Whether Angel Stadium actually qualifies as the Angels' "home" field when the Red Sox or Yankees are playing there is admittedly an open question. I still can't quite get over the sight and sound of most of the stadium standing and cheering on Sunday night once Chapman had 2 strikes on the final Angels' batter. That was a lot more mindblowing than Didi's Friday night curtain call, or the easily heard Yankee roll call earlier in the game.



   54. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: May 02, 2018 at 05:28 PM (#5664815)
the AL is the superior league


BARF

** Whether Angel Stadium actually qualifies as the Angels' "home" field when the Red Sox or Yankees are playing there is admittedly an open question. I still can't quite get over the sight and sound of most of the stadium standing and cheering on Sunday night once Chapman had 2 strikes on the final Angels' batter. That was a lot more mindblowing than Didi's Friday night curtain call, or the easily heard Yankee roll call earlier in the game.



TRIPLE BARF




   55. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: May 02, 2018 at 05:33 PM (#5664818)
The NL West had a legitimate claim to being the best division in baseball coming into this season but I guess the Dodgers aren't good? And now the Dbacks are having some injury problems. I think that with 3 good teams and another average one (the Giants) they were the division I would have picked. Certainly I mean no disrespect to the Red Sox or Yankees no matter how insufferable it is to watch road teams take curtain calls.
   56. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 02, 2018 at 06:35 PM (#5664841)
Certainly I mean no disrespect to the Red Sox or Yankees no matter how insufferable it is to watch road teams take curtain calls.

All this whining is about a guy briefly tipping his cap to acknowledge the fans cheers. If the fans in Anaheim Los Angeles Southern California want to show appreciation toward the American League Player of the Month, why should he snub them?
   57. shoewizard Posted: May 03, 2018 at 01:26 AM (#5665003)
Machado is the same age as Sanchez, and is younger than Judge


This is one of those things where you feel like you should know it, but it's still jarring when you read it.
   58. bfan Posted: May 03, 2018 at 07:51 AM (#5665017)
And until the National League starts winning interleague and All-Star games a bit more consistently than they have in recent years,


Interleague record I will grant you has merit. But judging the relative merits of the leagues by the all-star game results is like judging the attractiveness of women in a state by who wins the Miss America pageant; both involve small sample sizes where the quality level of the selection process and criteria is fairly called into question.
   59. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: May 03, 2018 at 10:21 AM (#5665122)
The tire fire of the NL east is 75-68 (which plays to a seasonal record of 85-77).


Yeah, like I said if I'm wrong about one of Philly or Atlanta the division looks a lot better. I'm not really sold on either of those teams and think at the end of the year they will have 3 sub-.500 teams, one that scrapes over .500 and a division winner around 90 wins.

Given my prognostication skills this prediction should be seen as a near guarantee that at least one Wild Card if not both will come from the NLE.
   60. Nasty Nate Posted: May 03, 2018 at 10:26 AM (#5665127)
Machado is the same age as Sanchez, and is younger than Judge

This is one of those things where you feel like you should know it, but it's still jarring when you read it.

Here's some months-of-birth for star AL players:

Carlos Correa - September, 94
Betts - October, 92
Bogaerts - October, 92
Jose Ramirez - September, 92
Machado - July, 92
Judge - April, 92
Trout - August, 91
   61. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: May 03, 2018 at 10:28 AM (#5665131)
It's really become a younger game in recent years.
   62. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 03, 2018 at 12:02 PM (#5665245)
It's really become a younger game in recent years.

A lot less amps and roids to keep the old guys going.
   63. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: May 03, 2018 at 12:25 PM (#5665274)
If the fans in Anaheim Los Angeles Southern California want to show appreciation toward the American League Player of the Month, why should he snub them?


Because Unwritten Rules, that's why.

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