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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Tuesday, August 23, 2011Hughson: The Use Of Sabermetric Stats Makes Me Uncomfortable“accuracy - not flakiness” Handles for sale! Get your red hot handles!
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Posted: August 23, 2011 at 12:32 PM | 29 comment(s)
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1. Stormy JEOops.
Agree. The examples he provides are pretty good critiques of those stats I think. They need to be viewed in context.
Um..okay, I guess it depends.
Um...no.
Seems like his standards for what stats can give him is asking too much - one stat that on its own can give you complete and accurate value in any context.
One thing I think he's not quite understanding is WAR when he says;
Technically speaking, WAR is more like a bunch of pieces of wins credited to players. A player isn't getting credit for any specific win, he's getting credit for how his total contributions have combined to his team winning or losing over the course of the season. Kind of like win shares using a different scale and different value algorithms.
Of course, and despite some flaws with both, this is what WS and WAR both get right. Sure, you can look at the complete game log; and if you've seen the game you can make some sort of judgment as to how each player fielded his position (and went out of position to make plays). You can look at dozens of different statistics to make your in-depth analysis of a player's performance, but this is what it all comes down to: the point in baseball is to win the game.
Pre-WS, pre-WAR, wins were granted to pitchers and pitchers alone. Well, if a pitcher allows 5-6 runs a game, but his team scores 8-9, he'll probably have a decent number of wins -- but we all know that doesn't make him a good pitcher. Why should he get credit for the W when it's really his batters who won the game.
No omnibus metric will ever be perfect, but I think WS and WAR are a step in the right direction (or, given that WS ignores replacement value, two right steps in two different directions). The point is to win. And just because one of your relievers only gives up three runs in an inning while the others were busy giving up four (yet your hitters scored thirty) doesn't mean that pitcher who had a shitty day, just slightly less bad than anyone else, should get the credit.
All ballplayers contribute to wins. Ultimately, that's how these tools work, to try and define that contribution. WS goes so far as to directly make it team-based, 3 WS to each win. And although I am NOT a mathemetician of any stripe, I actually think this works for a good number of teams out there. Intuitively, I don't think it's terribly relevant to major outliers: the '62 Mets, the '06 Cubs, or teams whose records differ wildly from their Pythag. But for many teams, yeah, WS can probably give a pretty good sense of a player's actual contributions.
WAR, of course, brings in replacement level -- I think WS may actually be better for season-end awards (what actually happened), while WAR is certainly better for "should this guy be on the team at all?" If a GM/managerial staff had a really good version of WAR, it could do wonders to help them construct their team. Hey, there's two free agents out there, a 3B and a 2B, and we have holes as both of those positions. They're both asking for the same money -- which one should I sign, and which one should I promote from the minors? That kinda thing, I think WS is pretty well useless for that.
I'm with him.
Damn you. The only reason I clicked on this thread was to make thatjoke...
I also share his specific complaint about defensive metrics, but I think he explains it poorly. We're told it takes 3 year's worth of data to make any conclusions; in his career, Jay Bruce has been -11, +3, +17, and -11 runs (per BBRef). Granted, he had fewer than 1000 innings in each of the first 2 seasons and there's still 5 weeks left in this one, but how good of a fielder is Bruce? Is he as excellent as his reputation? Is he about average (-2 runs for his career)? Is '10 an outlier and he's really bad?
I'd argue you can't assume a player has the same talent level over 3 years - younger players (like Bruce) should learn their positions better while older players probably can't get to as many balls as before. How am I supposed to use defensive metrics?
They've been assigning wins to pitchers for ever. I assume he'll have no problem ignoring that stat going forward.
(As he should...)
I'm with PF and the writer, but even the stats that I'm truly attached to, have flaky components. ERA has the whole decide what happens after the error for determining earned runs that is extremely flaky. It should be an impossibility for a homerun to be an unearned run, the men on base I could understand, but the actual homerun should always be an earned run. How about not assuming the double play for errors? Or the really weird nonsense of making a sacrifice fly not an at bat. You can't claim that those aren't flaky. And of course as mentioned the wins stat.
This is pretty wrong. No individual win is assigned to anyone - it's supposed to be an average of how many wins a team with Player X had over how many it would have had with a player that can be randomly found in AAA. Certainly the replacement level can be argued (and always is), but runs/wins compared to a baseline is the only way to figure out a tangible way a player made his team better.
He has been -12, -19, +20, +12 (per BBRef).
How good a hitter is Bruce?
Right, but I think "Wins" can be confusing in "Wins Above Replacement" when it could be "Widgets Above Replacement" in the sense that we only want a value of what that player is compared to a replacement level player. I think too many unfamiliar with the stat means it literally translates to win, so when they see a guy go 1-4, with a productive out, and the one hit driving in the game winning run late in the game, he will argue "That is 1 WAR right there!". And yes, I've had that argued to me.
Worst thing Shakespeare ever did.
Unless there was an error. Or a fielder's choice. Or a sacrifice. Or a missed third strike.
It's just a phrase. Are you mad at him because "all's well that ends well" isn't true?
click on more stats, They don't have it in pi, but in each players page they have both RC and RC/27.
BA (and with it OBP and SLG) has a pretty high variance.
The standard deviation of BA of players with 300+ plate appearances in consecutive seasons is just over 30 points of BA. (And around 35 for OBP and roughly twice that for SLG).
I've also looked at consecutive months: using only players with 90+ PAs in both months (which should get most of the injured players out) 49 points of BA, 57 point of OBP and 117 points of SLG
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