Within two seasons, Rollins could have 2,100 hits, 200 homers and 400 steals, as SS who won three Gold Gloves and an MVP Award. HOF?

Even in terms of pure counting old school stats, those numbers are not even as good as Alan Trammell (2365 hits, 185 homers in a lower HR environment, 236 steals, four Gold Gloves, second in 1987 MVP balloting (shoulda won dammit!). Trammell also has an OBA that is over 20 points higher than Rollins. And Trammell is nowhere near the HOF, much less a lock.

Wonderful player, but Rollins has an OPS+ of 97. When you do everything he does - high volume, high percentage baserunning, good defense at shortstop, you are way above average as an all around player.

The guys he needs to be compared to are strong defensive shortstops who were all-around players. Guys like Barry Larkin (116 OPS+) or Alan Trammell (110). He doesn't have enough bat to stack up to them.

If he was more than a good shortstop, and considered a historically great fielder, then he'd also have a case. Looks to me like he's headed for the HOVG.

Jeebus. Throw Jose Reyes on there. He's 28 and has 29 WAR. He would be between those groups, and closer to the top group. Rollins?

I guess you only have a few more weeks to pimp Reyes on "greatest shortstop ever" lists, so now's the time.

Sometimes the smell test is right. Jimmy Rollins is not a Hall of Famer.

I have a sneaky suspicion Rollins sticks around long enough to get there via counting stats and goes... I know he probably shouldn't, but I predict great BTF gnashing of teeth in 15-20 years.

Why not include other HOF shortstops in this analysis. At least those elected by the BBWAA rather than the Veterans Committee. Nobody is going to stack up with Wagner or even Ripken, so put the others out there to see where Rollins falls overall.

I have a sneaky suspicion Rollins sticks around long enough to get there via counting stats and goes...

Really? This is the very first time I have ever heard him mentioned as a HOF candidate.

Why not include other HOF shortstops in this analysis. At least those elected by the BBWAA rather than the Veterans Committee. Nobody is going to stack up with Wagner or even Ripken, so put the others out there to see where Rollins falls overall.

or non-HOF shortstops.

Through age 32:

Rollins - 34.4 WAR
Jim Fregosi - 44.9
Bert Campaneris - 36.4
Tony Fernandez - 32
Vern Stephens - 42.3
Johnny Pesky - 30.9

Why not include other HOF shortstops in this analysis. At least those elected by the BBWAA rather than the Veterans Committee. Nobody is going to stack up with Wagner or even Ripken, so put the others out there to see where Rollins falls overall.

agreed, age 32 season career war, for some other hof shortstops or borderlines....

Bert Campaneris,36.4
Miguel Tejada,36.4
Rico Petrocelli,36.3
Ed McKean,36.1
Ozzie Smith,35.8
Toby Harrah,35.5
Monte Ward,34.8
Rabbit Maranville,34.4
Luis Aparicio,34.2
Jimmy Rollins,34.0
Roger Peckinpaugh,33.0
Luke Appling,32.9
Tony Fernandez,32.0
Rafael Furcal,31.8
Johnny Pesky,30.9
Edgar Renteria,30.9

For the most part, I'm not seeing much to encourage Rollins, Ozzie had a strong second half of his career, his age 32 season was his career best, and he would average close to 5(4.7) war over the next 5 seasons. (only 4 shortstops have ever done better than 20 war in their age 33-37 seasons, Reese-22.8, Ozzie-23.6, George Davis-27.3, and of course Wagner-43.3)

Rollins needs to produce 4 or 5 seasons on par with his best season, while still playing shortstop to really enter the discussion. It's possible he is one of those guys who don't age too poorly and manages to play 155 games a year at a plus defense, but it's of course not likely.

Is that chart based entirely on offensive numbers?

There were substantial stretches where Ripken was playing with injuries that were clearly hampering his defense, noticeable just to the naked eye in the stands. The only reason Johnny Oates and company were running him out there during those periods was to keep The Streak alive.

Still, I had no idea he was that far above the pack, and I was drinking the Orioles' orange Kool Aid since Ripken's debut in 1982. Impressive.

Assuming it's B-ref WAR it does include defence. Which for Ripken was overwhelmingly positive throughout his career. He actually has 181 Rbat and 181 Rfield, what are the odds!

Did anybody else spend 2 minutes staring at that chart trying to figure out how in the hell Rollins could be above Banks?

A couple of tips on such graphs. (1) Try to avoid similar colors -- tough when you're drawing 6 lines I know. (2) Try to order the legend in roughly the way the lines order -- not always possible if lines cross a lot.

Anyway, Vizquel (11 GG) has a better chance than Rollins. But I also wouldn't be shocked if Rollins stuck around long enough to amass some fairly impressive counting stats for a SS so I won't rule him out. Still, he's likely to remain stuck in that middle ground -- not good enough offensively to match up to Trammell, not good enough defensively (not anywhere near it really) to match up to Aparicio and Ozzie. He's more Dave Concepcion except that Rollins plays in an era with lots of good-hitting SS. (3 GG is nice and all but the last was in 2009 so he's probably not going to win any more and 3's not that impressive of a total.)

what are the odds!

181 to 1.

what are the odds!

181 to 1.

In one Star Trek novelization McCoy asks Spock about the implied precision of some off the cuff odds given by Spock, 24.7 to 1, or some such thing- McCoy pointed out that he simply did not have the data to make any accurate "odds" let alone one with decimal points.

Spoke told McCoy he was quite right, the logical thing to do when asked by emotional creatures (like humans) for the odds of success or failure when there is (and will likely continue to be) insufficient data to do so- was to make a quick estimate- i.e., anywhere between 10 to 1 and 50 to one, pick a rough midpoint and add a decimal- because that reassures the "emotional creature," that the given odds are accurate...

McCoy: "So you basically just make it up"
Spock, "I believe I just said that"

A couple of tips on such graphs. (1) Try to avoid similar colors -- tough when you're drawing 6 lines I know. (2) Try to order the legend in roughly the way the lines order -- not always possible if lines cross a lot.

And: make different types of lines, not just different colors (e.g. one line solid, one line dashed, one line dotted, different combinations of dots-dashes, etc.).

Did anybody else spend 2 minutes staring at that chart trying to figure out how in the hell Rollins could be above Banks?

yes

A couple of tips on such graphs. (1) Try to avoid similar colors -- tough when you're drawing 6 lines I know. (2) Try to order the legend in roughly the way the lines order -- not always possible if lines cross a lot.

Even if lines cross a lot, try to keep the order in the legend the same as the order of the lines to the very right of the x-axis; in this case, from top to bottom, legend would be Wagner, Ripken, Banks, Reese, Aparicio, Rollins. Also, did all other shortstops (besides Rollins) die before their age 33 season?

Just getting through the age 32 shortstop nexus of death has got to help Rollins' chances.

I have a sneaky suspicion Rollins sticks around long enough to get there via counting stats and goes...

Really? This is the very first time I have ever heard him mentioned as a HOF candidate.

Oops- mea culpa - I was running some favorite toys and accidentally gave Rollins Edgar Renteria's hit totals and Jose Reyes' age... which probably should have triggered some red flags, even with the transpositions.

Jeebus. Throw Jose Reyes on there. He's 28 and has 29 WAR. He would be between those groups, and closer to the top group. Rollins?

Reyes belongs there based on performance to date, but the performance necessary to project him as a HOFer ended in 2008. 2011 was Reyes's fluke, BABIP fueled year, his D is now a little below average, and he can't stay on the field. He'll need to play a long time to get into the Hall, but unless he can resist ordinary decline in the field he won't be worth keeping at the position for more than another five years.

Add to that that he's now a 120 game a year SS, and unless his health and durability miraculously return he simply won't be able to play enough games to get into the Hall by way of counting stats. And he doesn't have the peak to get there as a peak case, though Reyes did have a nifty, albeit short, peak.