Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, July 25, 2014

Hurdles remain in Mets-Rockies deal for Tulowitzki, Gonzalez

The Rockies and Mets would seem to be perfect trade partners.

Colorado has star players at the very two positions the Mets need in shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and left fielder Carlos Gonzalez, and it needs to think about retooling things after another year fighting and losing the altitude/injury battle.

The Mets have a stash of young pitching prospects, just the sort Colorado so badly needs.

And, in fact, Rockies people have identified the Mets as one of the teams—perhaps the perfect team—that could potentially make a trade of at least one or of their two cornerstone players work. Colorado likes the Mets’ young pitchers, according to people familiar with their thinking, in fact much more than they like some other teams that have shown interest in Tulo and CarGo.

No surprise, the Mets have checked in again with Colorado, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported, and as expected the teams will talk again about Tulo and CarGo.

The two teams should have some interesting conversations since they do seem to be such a positional match. However, the chances of a deadline deal involving Tulo and Cargo still seem remote, at best.

You don’t say?

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 25, 2014 at 03:42 PM | 52 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: carlos gonzalez, dillon gee, jacob degrom, jon niese, mets, noah syndergaard, rafael montero, rockies, troy tulowitski

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. McCoy Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:29 PM (#4757739)
Is this for real or is this some reporter's wet dream?
   2. Al Kaline Trio Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:30 PM (#4757741)
The parks would hurt the hitters going to NY and the pitching going to COL, what could go wrong?
   3. Accent Shallow Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:38 PM (#4757745)
I saw the headline and my jaw dropped; I thought the teams had been moving on a deal and I was just unaware.
   4. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:42 PM (#4757746)
Park effects aside

Tulo and Cargo in place of Tejad and Young would have a dramatic impact on the Mets lineup for one trade, they have 398 Runs against 393 runs allowed, a .506 team by Pythag, with Tulo and CarGo in place they'd be a .540-.550 team.

Of course Tulo and CarGo are set to make a combined 37-40 million a year the next few years - are the Wilpons able and willing to pay that?



   5. Mark S. is bored Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:44 PM (#4757747)
I'd love for the Mets to get Tulowitzki, but his contract scares the hell out of me. $118M-$129M (depending on team option) remaining for ages 30-36.
   6. Zach Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:44 PM (#4757748)
If the Mets want trades like this, they should start hanging around back alleys with switchblades.

Sure, the odds that Dan O'Dowd will come stumbling by are low. But the odds that he'd accept this trade during the middle of the day are even worse.
   7. Batman Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:46 PM (#4757749)
That remaining Hurdle is Clint.
   8. Mark S. is bored Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:47 PM (#4757751)
And I see no reason for the Mets to make a trade for them during the season. It's not like adding Tulo and CarGo would increase their chance of making the playoffs worth the extra cost this year.
   9. bobm Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:52 PM (#4757757)
Colorado has star players at the very two positions the Mets need in shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and left fielder Carlos Gonzalez, and it needs to think about retooling things after another year fighting and losing the altitude/injury battle.


Because if there is any team that has shown it could keep these two players healthy, it is the New York Mets.
   10. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:58 PM (#4757759)
The Mets haven't given any indication that they are inclined to spend big bucks, much less $171M on two players - a corner outfielder with a 94 OPS+ and a SS hitting .257/.364/.447 away from Coors Field.
   11. Buzzkill Posted: July 25, 2014 at 05:00 PM (#4757760)
I always thought Tulo would look rather awesome playing SS at Fenway. When healthy, I'd take him over Trout. (Too bad he can't stay healthy)

As for this trade, I think depending on the pitchers we're talking about, could be a win-win Cargo and Tulo are wasted in Colorado - they need arms.
   12. Into the Void Posted: July 25, 2014 at 05:07 PM (#4757763)
The other question is, how many, and what pitching prospects would it take? Is Harvey off limits? Wheeler?
   13. jayjay Posted: July 25, 2014 at 05:20 PM (#4757773)
When healthy, I'd take him over Trout.
I'll take Trout and an extra 7 years, thanks.
   14. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 25, 2014 at 05:22 PM (#4757774)
I mean....I realize this is all just fantasy anyway, but the Mets really don't need to make a move like this. Stand pat, sign a mid-level free agent or two to shore up a weak spot in your lineup and bullpen this winter (Stephen Drew and Nori Aoki, guys like that), and, really, you should be in a good position to make a run for the playoffs in 2015.

I'd say trade Bartolo Colon for a hitter who might help you in 2015, but I'm not sure if there's any team that's a good fit. (Something like Colon and Chris Young to the Mariners for Nick Franklin, maybe? Or is that wishful thinking?)
   15. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: July 25, 2014 at 05:24 PM (#4757777)
a SS hitting .257/.364/.447 away from Coors Field


TBF, these days that's a superstar.
   16. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: July 25, 2014 at 05:26 PM (#4757779)
hitting .257/.364/.447 away from Coors Field.

Nice to see dopes still trotting out this nonsense like 15 years after the road hangover effect became obvious.
   17. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 25, 2014 at 05:29 PM (#4757783)
15. a SS hitting .257/.364/.447 away from Coors Field


TBF, these days that's a superstar.

Hanley Ramirez is the only other shortstop in baseball with a better overall OPS than that (.273/.372/.463), and it's fair to say Tulo is a significantly better defender. So, yeah, even if we for some strange reason use only Tulo's numbers away from Coors, he's still a pretty reasonable candidate for the best shortstop in baseball.
   18. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 25, 2014 at 05:45 PM (#4757799)
. . . even if we for some strange reason use only Tulo's numbers away from Coors, he's still a pretty reasonable candidate for the best shortstop in baseball.

Maybe, but not much of a bargain given what he's owed. And with the Mets' financial woes, I don't see them going for Tulowitzki, much less him & Gomez. What changed that has them spending $171M at the deadline when they've been pinching pennies since Madoff went bust?
   19. formerly dp Posted: July 25, 2014 at 06:17 PM (#4757813)
I'd love for the Mets to get Tulowitzki, but his contract scares the hell out of me. $118M-$129M (depending on team option) remaining for ages 30-36.
Haven't looked at the numbers, but my gut is that if the Mets got them both as free agents rather than by trade, I wouldn't like the contracts. Add to it that they'll probably have to give up significant and sorely-needed talent to get them, and I think it would be the wrong play. Or what Davo said in #14 (FWIW, Young and Colon don't come close to netting them Franklin, IMO, but Alderson has surprised me in the past with the returns he's pulled).

The Mets need to upgrade at SS and LF this offseason. It should be fairly easy to scare up a LF bat, and the answer for SS may be in-house.
   20. JE (Jason) Posted: July 25, 2014 at 07:09 PM (#4757835)
Maybe, but not much of a bargain given what he's owed. And with the Mets' financial woes, I don't see them going for Tulowitzki, much less him & Gomez. What changed that has them spending $171M at the deadline when they've been pinching pennies since Madoff went bust?

Yeah, I have a hard time imagining that the Mets make this deal unless the Rox toss in a few shekels.
   21. Al Kaline Trio Posted: July 25, 2014 at 07:15 PM (#4757836)
I agree with the thoughts in this thread. There are good SS available this offseason if you are willing to pay as much as Tulo and Cargon are getting paid. Keep the prospects and spend the money.

Get Hanley, Asdrubal, Lowrie or Hardy and trade for Rios?
   22. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: July 25, 2014 at 07:19 PM (#4757839)
I'd love the Mets to get Tulo. I don't love the idea of trying to trade for him at the time when his value is probably as high as it's ever going to be.
   23. formerly dp Posted: July 25, 2014 at 07:23 PM (#4757844)
Herrera's line at AA is up to .357/.420/.563, but he's mostly been starting at 2B.
   24. Al Kaline Trio Posted: July 25, 2014 at 07:34 PM (#4757848)
If anybody is trading for Tulo it would be the Yankees and take on all of the money. Not sure if they have the prospects to get the Rockies to agree with that.
   25. Walt Davis Posted: July 25, 2014 at 07:40 PM (#4757850)
Hard to see the Rox trading both of these guys in a single trade. Few teams have enough minor-league talent for one superstar and one star, few can take the double hit to the payroll, few need both a SS and a OF. Surely they can get better total value in separate trade if, for some silly reason, they decide they want to trade these guys.

That said, you're not going to do better on the FA market than Tulo at 6/$120. And CarGo is 3/$53 but that covers his age 29-31 seasons so it's not his decline phase. You'd need to be confident that this year is just a fluke (2 months good performance should do that) but that looks like a fine contract to pick up.

But I would tend to agree that the Mets would be better off keeping their own talent and spending only money on talent acquisition ... depending on the price of course.

Colon and Young for Franklin ... it's not clear to me the Ms know what to do with Franklin but those aren't attractive acquisitions. Colon is wanted but he's 41 and having an average season and signed for next year ... you're not going to get real value back for him. Young ... I'm not even sure which one you mean but neither has any real value. Anybody who thought either player was worthwhile before the season probably would have beaten the Mets offer and there's nothing in this season's performance to have changed anybody's mind.

Murphy (to play 1B) and Colon for Franklin I could see. Or Duda & Colon. Or Niese for Franklin almost certainly. But with Tejada, Flores, Wright and, if they want it, probably a reasonable short extension of Murphy, I'm not sure Franklin is what the Mets need.
   26. Sonic Youk Posted: July 25, 2014 at 07:51 PM (#4757858)
Tulo's contract maybe 2/3 of what he'd get on the market. Its a huge plus to his trade value, not a detriment. All but the poorest of franchises would be thrilled to take it.
   27. formerly dp Posted: July 25, 2014 at 07:57 PM (#4757862)
Colon is wanted but he's 41 and having an average season and signed for next year ... you're not going to get real value back for him.
Walt, what was your assessment of the return Byrd would bring this time last year? Like I said above, I don't think Colon and Young (CYoung is less than worthless at this point, with what they still owe him) next Franklin, but I do think if they time a deal right they can get a low-A prospect, similar to what they got for Byrd.

My take on Franklin now is the same as it was at the start of the season-- why would the Mets want another guy whose ability to play SS is questionable, and may end up at 2B? They have Flores and Herrera for that already...
   28. Banta Posted: July 25, 2014 at 08:53 PM (#4757888)
Am I the only one who thinks this could be a good deal for the Mets? That's a lot of money in play and I think it's possible they could swing a deal giving up not a ton. Say one of Wheeler/Montero/Syndergaard, Flores, Niese and some other non elite prospect. Is that fair? I don't know, but I think I'd do it. Tulo is a lot better than any free agent you're signing.

Until he has a major injury anyway.
   29. shoewizard Posted: July 25, 2014 at 10:50 PM (#4757921)
When was the last time the Mets signed or traded for a big money star on the right side of 30 ?

EDIT: I guess Beltran was 28 when he signed with Mets
   30. PreservedFish Posted: July 25, 2014 at 11:02 PM (#4757925)
Haven't looked at the numbers, but my gut is that if the Mets got them both as free agents rather than by trade, I wouldn't like the contracts.


Tulo is one of the best players in baseball. If you're not willing to sign him as a 30-year old free agent at 6 years and $120 million, you're basically telling me that you just don't do free agents. Tulo's contract is almost exactly half of the value of Robinson Cano's. Getting Tulowitzki at almost any price would be an absolute bonanza for the Mets.
   31. PreservedFish Posted: July 25, 2014 at 11:42 PM (#4757934)
I mean....I realize this is all just fantasy anyway, but the Mets really don't need to make a move like this. Stand pat, sign a mid-level free agent or two to shore up a weak spot in your lineup and bullpen this winter (Stephen Drew and Nori Aoki, guys like that), and, really, you should be in a good position to make a run for the playoffs in 2015.


I really do not get this at all. I have trouble with the idea that ANY team is good enough to turn its nose up at Tulowitzki, but to think that the Mets are, of all teams?

The Mets are at .500 per Pythag, which is nice, and if Harvey were healthy they might actually be at .500 in real life. This team is not an Aoki away from the playoffs.

This (fictional) trade subtracts players from the Mets' greatest strength, young starting pitching - which is also least dependable type of strength - and adds to its positions of greatest weakness. It brings the team salary from about 10th lowest to 10th highest, which is where it should be. Tulowitzki would be among the most talented players to ever wear the uniform. Gonzalez is a bit dicier but he's a 29-year old outfielder, signed for three years, getting slotted into the single most pathetic position in the organization.

Mets fans should be doing backflips that this is even being discussed.
   32. Walt Davis Posted: July 25, 2014 at 11:52 PM (#4757939)
you're basically telling me that you just don't do free agents

Of course staying out of the post-30 FA market is not necessarily a bad idea.

The main concern with Tulo is durability. Even this year, he's got only 88 starts in 101 games. He hasn't started 150 games since 2007 and not more than 140 since 2009. You've pretty much got to assume that he's missing 20% of the season and it would be unusual that he'd get more durable in his 30s. Rolen was more durable in his 20s for crying out loud. Rolen still managed to be worth about 22 WAR from 30-35 so it's not the scariest comp in the world.

#27 ... I suppose that sounds about right. Or something like what the Cubs got for Scott Feldman ... which has worked out very well. Colon has value especially if teams are willing to look at FIP more than ERA and his contract isn't onerous. Find the team that's desperate for a starter.
   33. billyshears Posted: July 26, 2014 at 12:25 AM (#4757944)
The Mets clearly aren't trading for both Tulowitzki and Gonzalez, but they really should be major players for Tulowitzki - he is basically the exact player that they need.
   34. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: July 26, 2014 at 01:04 AM (#4757949)
Gotta say, I'm stunned that there were multiple posts deriding Tulo's contract. Only reason not to love that deal (contract terms, not necessarily trade terms) is worries about his health above what we've already seen, in that COL is hypothetically making him available in the first place.
   35. billyshears Posted: July 26, 2014 at 09:23 AM (#4757973)
Gotta say, I'm stunned that there were multiple posts deriding Tulo's contract. Only reason not to love that deal (contract terms, not necessarily trade terms) is worries about his health above what we've already seen, in that COL is hypothetically making him available in the first place.


Without having really looked at the issue, I was under the impression that Tulo's deal was dramatically under market. While his deal is definitely below value, Tulo has never had a 6 WAR season. Now, this is primarily due to injury, but don't I think one can assume that the injury issues will disappear. At $20 mil AAV, natural decline from 30 - 36 and a current $5 mil/WAR figure (may be low), there is excess value in Tulo's deal, but not the enormous amount I had initially thought.
   36. vivaelpujols Posted: July 26, 2014 at 10:25 AM (#4757983)
and a SS hitting .257/.364/.447 away from Coors Field.


What an absolutely moronic thing to post. Was that with a straight face?
   37. JE (Jason) Posted: July 26, 2014 at 10:36 AM (#4757987)
From 2008-13, Tulo played in 690 of 972 (71 perecent) big-league games. Right now he's on the DL. He turns 30 this fall.

So thanks for thinking of us, Monfort, but unless you're paying the shipping and handling too, no thanks.
   38. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2014 at 11:34 AM (#4758008)
It pains me to say this, but I had no idea Tulo had so few games played and now I'd lean towards no. Regarding #31, PF, do you really not think that percentage is an important consideration?
   39. puck Posted: July 26, 2014 at 12:50 PM (#4758045)
If anybody is trading for Tulo it would be the Yankees and take on all of the money. Not sure if they have the prospects to get the Rockies to agree with that.


Do they ever take on all the money, though? It never seems to work that way. The Rockies would end up trading Tulo and sending $30 million.
   40. puck Posted: July 26, 2014 at 12:54 PM (#4758048)
The back end of a superstar's contract is always tough with those expected dead years. His guaranteed contract years are for his age 30-35 seasons. OTOH, in his 8 full years, Tulo has 38.2 WAR even with all that time missed, and that back end is for $118 million guaranteed over 6 years. That's not big money these days.
   41. PreservedFish Posted: July 26, 2014 at 01:09 PM (#4758053)
It pains me to say this, but I had no idea Tulo had so few games played and now I'd lean towards no. Regarding #31, PF, do you really not think that percentage is an important consideration?


Yes, it's something to consider.

The back end of a superstar's contract is always tough with those expected dead years.


Tulo's contract extends only to age 35 - that's a bonus.
   42. bobm Posted: July 26, 2014 at 01:16 PM (#4758061)
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2014, From Age 23 to 28, Played 80% of games at SS

Sorted by games played, Tulo is 97th (71% of leader).
Sorted by WAR, he is 18th (54% of leader).
   43. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 26, 2014 at 01:19 PM (#4758063)
From 2008-13, Tulo played in 690 of 972 (71 perecent) big-league games.


As it happens, since Jose Reyes left, Mets starting shortstops (as determined by bb-ref) have started 70 percent of the team's games. But that's because they all sucked.
   44. jdennis Posted: July 26, 2014 at 03:39 PM (#4758131)
I'm pretty sure the Rockies would not consider trading either Tulo or Gonzalez anytime soon.
   45. Walt Davis Posted: July 26, 2014 at 07:53 PM (#4758217)
Rolen seems a good comp, and he had about 22 WAR from 30-35. Larkin seems a good comp and he had 31 WAR. Walker is a good durability/WAR comp and put up 36. Even Griffey managed 16 oWAR from 30-35 (assuming Tulo's defense doesn't go to crap). He's really not a major risk to bust even if he turns out to be as "frustrating" as Griffey and Rolen's injuries were.
   46. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 26, 2014 at 08:04 PM (#4758220)
If anybody is trading for Tulo it would be the Yankees and take on all of the money.


Seeing what would happen to the Internet if the Yankees traded away Derek Jeter in the middle of his farewell tour would make that worthwhile in itself.
   47. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: July 26, 2014 at 08:18 PM (#4758222)
This is the first time I've listened to a Mets radio broadcast this year. How the hell is Josh Lewin working in radio with that horrendous lisp??? I almost have to turn it off.
   48. Walt Davis Posted: July 26, 2014 at 10:29 PM (#4758250)
If anybody is trading for Tulo it would be the Yankees and take on all of the money.

And give what players back? As far as I know, the Yanks don't have anything remotely resembling the prospects to get that trade done.

The Rox might be dumb enough to trade CarGo in a straight salary dump but even they can't be dumb enough or naive enough about the fan reaction to trade Tulo without getting real prospects in return.

And as is clear, there is no problem with the Tulo contract. Other than the true destitute, there's not a team out there that wouldn't take that contract in a second.

Besides, it's clear the Cubs are not going to stop until they have 27 SS in the organization, they've got to be the front-runners.
   49. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 27, 2014 at 03:34 AM (#4758304)
and a SS hitting .257/.364/.447 away from Coors Field.


What an absolutely moronic thing to post. Was that with a straight face?


What part did you find most moronic, the part where

A) Tulos Road OPS would be higher than all but one starting MLB shortstop's total (home and road) OPS both this year and over the last three years? or...

B) the part where Tulo has to hit in the toughest set of road parks of any shortstop in the MLB, and if he was a Met, his set of road parks gain 14% higher than average offensive park Coors Field, replacing 5% worse than average Citi Field, significantly improving his road OPS?
   50. Bobvila Posted: July 27, 2014 at 11:27 AM (#4758374)
Just to weigh in...I'm a Mets fan and I'd send a good package of pitching for Tulo.
   51. puck Posted: July 27, 2014 at 12:04 PM (#4758396)

What part did you find most moronic

You left out cherry-picking, since his unadjusted road OPS this year is his lowest since 2008.
   52. puck Posted: July 27, 2014 at 12:08 PM (#4758400)
Couple updates:

Rockies misspell "Tulowitzki" on Tulowitzki shirt giveaway night

Update: The Rockies have since issued an apology for the gaffe.

#Rockies Monfort in an immediate press release, "Maybe Denver doesn't deserve a Tulowizki jersey."
— Eric Goodman (@EricGoodman) July 27, 2014


Tulo, currently on the DL with a hip flexor strain, is visiting the Philly "muscle imbalance" specialist who performed the surgery to remove scar tissue from his groin injury..

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - November 2014
(946 - 12:42pm, Nov 22)
Last: Dandy Little Glove Man

NewsblogOT:  Soccer (the Round, True Football), November 2014
(377 - 12:42pm, Nov 22)
Last: frannyzoo

NewsblogFriars show interest in dealing for Bruce | MLB.com
(4 - 12:40pm, Nov 22)
Last: Mike Webber

NewsblogESPN Suspends Keith Law From Twitter For Defending Evolution
(70 - 12:38pm, Nov 22)
Last: RickG

NewsblogOTP Politics November 2014: Mets Deny Bias in Ticket Official’s Firing
(4138 - 12:34pm, Nov 22)
Last: Lassus

NewsblogKemp drawing interest, raising chance he's the Dodgers OF dealt - CBSSports.com
(3 - 12:34pm, Nov 22)
Last: akrasian

NewsblogMatthews: Cashman sleeps on the street, says all is quiet on the free-agent front
(18 - 12:31pm, Nov 22)
Last: RMc is a fine piece of cheese

NewsblogRays name managerial finalists: Cash, Ibanez, Wakamatsu | Tampa Bay Times
(6 - 12:23pm, Nov 22)
Last: RMc is a fine piece of cheese

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 2014 Ballot
(9 - 12:20pm, Nov 22)
Last: lieiam

NewsblogMike Schmidt: Marlins' Stanton too rich too early? | www.palmbeachpost.com
(13 - 12:11pm, Nov 22)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)

NewsblogCashman in wait-and-see mode on retooling Yanks | yankees.com
(2 - 12:08pm, Nov 22)
Last: Bug Selig

NewsblogMLB.com: White Sox Land Adam LaRoche With 2 Year/$25M Deal
(14 - 11:40am, Nov 22)
Last: Joey B.

NewsblogDodgers Acquire Joel Peralta – MLB Trade Rumors
(35 - 11:36am, Nov 22)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogBraves shopping Justin Upton at a steep price | New York Post
(1 - 10:26am, Nov 22)
Last: Astroenteritis

NewsblogRed Sox offer for Pablo Sandoval might be in the lead - Sports - The Boston Globe
(1 - 10:13am, Nov 22)
Last: jacksone (AKA It's OK...)

Page rendered in 0.4476 seconds
52 querie(s) executed