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Monday, July 30, 2018

‘I guess we’ll find out’: What does the future hold for Joe Mauer?

Herein lies the question(s), then: Clearly, Mauer can still hit a bit, but does his offensive profile have any market value, especially in the face of his other deficiencies? And, moreover, does the possibility of qualitative value - the benefit of having a potential mentor in Mauer - make palatable the opportunity cost of committing a roster spot to an aging, power-deficient first baseman?

Dennis Eclairskey, closer Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:26 PM | 109 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agency, joe mauer, minnesota twins

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   101. Booey Posted: August 03, 2018 at 06:30 PM (#5720583)
flip
   102. QLE Posted: August 03, 2018 at 08:54 PM (#5720664)
By games he's a half catcher but by value he's probably 75-80% catcher.


Quite, in the same way that, while Ernie Banks played half his career at first base, only the most pedantic among us would suggest him to be a first baseman.

Also, Rice has nearly 2,500 hits (2,452) & 400 HRs (382) while Foster is just under 2,000 (1,925) & 350 (348)


I've also gotten the impression that the fact that things fell apart for Foster the minute he left the Reds (and furthered by the fact that the 1986 Mets won the World Series after kicking him to the curb) also hurt his reputation- I recall seeing some writing around the time he was up for BBWAA consideration that said outright that he benefited from his teammates (mind you, these folk in turn failed to perceive the impact of this point with Tony Perez....)

No, the more reasonable assessment is all of his career vs. all of his career.


The problem there is that "Count da WAR!!!" without giving any serious thought involving how it was accumulated isn't really that much more advanced that doing so for any other statistic- by bWAR, Torre has an advantage of 2.8 WAR over 1,047 more plate appearances, which means you're rewarding him for the equivalent of two seasons' worth of below-average play.
   103. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 03, 2018 at 09:01 PM (#5720671)
The problem there is that "Count da WAR!!!" without giving any serious thought involving how it was accumulated isn't really that much more advanced that doing so for any other statistic- by bWAR, Torre has an advantage of 2.8 WAR over 1,047 more plate appearances, which means you're rewarding him for the equivalent of two seasons' worth of below-average play.

Only if you accept BRef's defensive numbers. If you use Fangraphs, Torre has an advantage of 14 WAR over those same 1047 PAs. Or, two MVP seasons. Let's not pretend any one WAR is definitive.

Torre has a 129 wRC+ vs Mauer's 123, plus the extra 1000 PA. He's also got several hundred games at 3B, and none at DH.
   104. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: August 03, 2018 at 09:22 PM (#5720687)
Foster is kinda the poor-man's Rice


George Millet?
   105. PreservedFish Posted: August 03, 2018 at 09:43 PM (#5720731)
Humberto Quinoa
   106. cardsfanboy Posted: August 03, 2018 at 10:05 PM (#5720759)
Only if you accept BRef's defensive numbers. If you use Fangraphs, Torre has an advantage of 14 WAR over those same 1047 PAs. Or, two MVP seasons. Let's not pretend any one WAR is definitive.


Isn't post 103 more or less agreeing with post 102.... more or less making the same argument, that just simply counting the war without any analysis is not a good way to go? I get that you are pointing that one war is different than the other war, but are you arguing then that you need to "Count da War!!!" if it's fangraphs and not bb-ref or are you accepting the point made in 102 that even with an "uber stat" like war, that you need to do a bit more analysis?
   107. DanG Posted: August 03, 2018 at 10:44 PM (#5720795)
Most WAR, catchers age 23-27:

Player          WARWAAOPS+   PA From   To   BA  OBP  SLG
Johnny Bench    31.8 21.6  135 3231 1971 1975 .265 .349 .484 H
Joe Mauer       28.9 18.8  143 2902 2006 2010 .334 .416 .491
Ivan Rodriguez  28.9 18.2  112 3097 1995 1999 .314 .349 .497 H
Gary Carter     27.4 18.3  123 2797 1977 1981 .268 .336 .474 H
Buster Posey    23.5 15.8  144 2438 2010 2014 .310 .376 .490
Thurman Munson  23.3 13.4  118 2758 1970 1974 .279 .348 .404
Joe Torre       23.3 12.6  137 2852 1964 1968 .297 .361 .480 H
Ted Simmons     22.6 12.5  128 3227 1973 1977 .304 .374 .453
Mike Piazza     22.4 15.6  155 2223 1992 1996 .326 .388 .559 H
Yogi Berra      20.9 12.7  128 2793 1948 1952 .295 .354 .496 H
Mickey Cochrane 20.7 10.6  123 2697 1926 1930 .321 .403 .476 H 
   108. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 04, 2018 at 12:34 PM (#5720879)
Isn't post 103 more or less agreeing with post 102.... more or less making the same argument, that just simply counting the war without any analysis is not a good way to go? I get that you are pointing that one war is different than the other war, but are you arguing then that you need to "Count da War!!!" if it's fangraphs and not bb-ref or are you accepting the point made in 102 that even with an "uber stat" like war, that you need to do a bit more analysis?

I wasn't sure exactly the point [102] was making. I was simply pointing out that Torre's seemingly small advantage is based on one specific methodology. Another specufic methodology has Torre as a far better player.

But, yes, I agree we need to go beyond WAR. That's what I started to do by looking at wRC+, PT, and position. You can obviously take that much farther.
   109. Moeball Posted: August 05, 2018 at 06:36 PM (#5721419)
The thing with Mauer, as I see it, is this - I hoped he would have his "peak years at catcher" followed by a gradual winding down of his career at first base but that isn't what happened. Not only does he no longer give his team extra value by playing a difficult defensive position, but he stopped hitting, too, which just kills it as far as I'm concerned. When he was a catcher up through 2013, he had a 135 OPS+. Since 2014 as a first baseman, he's at 105, which, quite frankly, is just about dime a dozen territory for a first baseman.

I'm afraid I'm on the "no" side of his HOF argument. Which is a shame, because if you had asked me 5 years ago, I'd have thought he was well on his way to Cooperstown.
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