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1. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: April 10, 2012 at 07:16 AM (#4102440)Scratch another one off the Cubs list but another one I'm not that upset they'll be missing out on if he was gonna cost this much or more for 2014 and beyond. Man, ballplayers are starting to make some serious money.
Does this have any implications for a Hamilton deal?
+12 Bat + 4 Run + 20 Rep + 2 Pos + 8 Def = +47 RAR - Kinsler
+42 Bat - 5 Run + 21 Rep - 11 Pos - 5 Def = +42 RAR - Prince Fielder
Fielder's younger, but Kinsler's much more athletic. I wouldn't give Kinsler $200M, but I find it really hard to quibble with him getting $75M when the price for boppers has risen sky high this offseason. This contract strikes me as evidence that there's still a bit of a market inefficiency for players whose contributions come from all over the diamond, rather than only in the batters' box.
Kinsler's age 26-29 seasons would have been a bargain at $20M per season. They're paying him not to continue what he's done, but to decline with relative grace. I'd call it a good contract in this market.
I think this is pretty cheap, though the disaster risk is certainly there.
This makes mr happy that the Yankees won't have to do some 7/150 stupidity for Cano. Maybe a 5/90 extension gets done.
I concur. Kinsler is a bit scary because of his injury history, but at $15M/year, he doesn't have to remain a 5 WAR player for the deal to make sense.
If not Texas, then where is Hamilton a fit? He should probably stay in the AL and he should probably stay in an environment suitable for him (I'd imagine Texas works well for Hamilton's born again self-identification.) I can't see Hamilton going to Boston/NY/Chicago. Maybe if the Angels could afford him? Orange County seems like it could be a good fit, he'd slot in nicely in LF next to Trout and Bourjos, and Hamilton-Pujols is an incredible thought.
That'd be nice, but isn't Cano currently repped by Scott Boras?
That'd be nice, but isn't Cano currently repped by Scott Boras?
Not sure. But this has to be a big comp contract. Kinsler's every bit as good as Cano.
Cano will get a little premium b/c his skills are more obvious (more BA, less D), but no way he deserves more than $1-2M AAV more than Kinsler.
If Boras is going to play chicken, the Yankees should just let him walk, and re-up Granderson and Swisher instead.
That seems quite long, but a very low AAV. $12M per is ashtray money these days.
Well the assumption would be that Boras advises Cano not to sign any sort of extension and go to free agency after 2013, as is his wont.
OK. I don't see who's going to outbid the Yankees. If someone does throw Carl Crawford money at him, you let him walk.
Of course, who knows how much playing 160 a year will affect Cano's long-term durability. Kinsler might be more like Barry Larkin – misses time but plays into old age – and Cano might take the Roberto Alomar path. Though I guess those are both decent players to emulate ...
No, I was thinking 5/90 extension now.
But when he becomes a FA after 2013, he'll have just turned 31. Does he get more than a 28.5 y.o. Jose Reyes? I don't think so, unless salaries really escalate next winter.
6/105-110 seems like the maximum FA offer, so I wouldn't worry about locking him up unless I could get a great deal.
Isn't that already accounted for in WAR?
You could argue that having a backup as good as Young makes Kinsler more valuable to the Rangers.
It is, although I understand the concern that a guy who has a history of missing 30 games a season might be more likely to wind up missing 80+ games one of these years as opposed to the guy who plays 160 like clockwork. Still, I love Kinsler and I like this deal for Texas.
FWIW, I think Cano gets more than 5/90. Where are the Yankees going to find a 5 win player on the FA market for less than that?
Hey, I didn't think Prince Fielder would get $200 million. I thought it would take a con to get him $150.
Considering Fielder isn't really any better than Kinsler (2 years younger maybe, but still), I'm convinced there was some Jedi mind trick involved in one or both of those negotiations.
Good players who have no effect on negotiations for big cable TV deals are the new market inefficiency.
I was talking 5/90 as a pre-FA extension. On the FA market, I think he gets a Reyes deal, 6/105-110.
And the number of people in N&Y who agree is about 1.5%
I'd say Kinsler is close,
When did Kendrick sign his current deal?
Infante is also quite the value the next 2 years (he's almost the poster child for players who come up too soon, does a faceplant which seemingly obscures for years that he's actually a perfectly decent player)
no way, Reyes got his deal despite a scary injury history, Cano is far more durable, he'd get more years and a higher AAV than Reyes
Toronto could use his lefty bat to balance Bautista and Lawrie.
When was the last time the Yankees let a superstar-level player walk?
Well Cano is a bit older, so I don't think he'd get a longer deal AND a high AAV. I was thinking it would take a similar deal to Reyes, maybe bit more, 6/120 or so. I'd have to think the Dodgers would be interested if they had their house in order by then. Hell, maybe even the Mets! Trolololo!
Wow, that's a pretty high bar. In terms of fame and performance, he's gotta be, right? How many superstars do you think there are that Cano isn't even close?
Yanks have to worry about coming in under the luxury tax.
Longoria, Pujols, Cabrera, Tulowitzki, Bautista
Arguably Gonzalez, Votto, Kemp, Braun. Cano and Pedroia are pretty much dead even, and they're probably in the 8th-12th best player in MLB range. I'd take them over Holliday or Upton or Fielder, and Kinsler slots in with those guys. I think that's a superstar.
I'm not saying he's not great. He's a 5 WAR player. 30 position players do that every year.
He's solidly top-20, but that's not a "Super-Star" if the term has any meaning. You've got to have some MVP type years to be a "Super-Star".
Which players in MLB are better than Cano?
Longoria, Pujols, Cabrera, Tulowitzki, Bautista
As good or better: Cabrera, Baustista, Pujols, Longoria, Kemp, Votto, Tulowitzki, Gonzalez, Upton, Zobrist, Braun, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Holliday, Zimmerman, Beltre, Kinsler, McCutcheon.
Again, solidly top-20 position player.
He's solidly top-20, but that's not a "Super-Star" if the term has any meaning. You've got to have some MVP type years to be a "Super-Star".
That really depends on which defensive ratings you believe. UZR has him at ~-6 over the last three years. That's what Fangraphs uses for WAR.
DRS has him at +22 over the last three years. BBref rates him at +10. His 2010 is certainly an MVP type year if you use his DRS for his defense (8.2 vs. 6.5 with UZR). And if you add a win or two to his production over the last three years, he starts to distance himself from guys like Kinsler.
Personally, I have a hard time believing Cano is a below average defensive 2nd baseman.
I'd say solidly top-20 + Yankee = superstar, but obviously YMMV. He also has the #17 top selling jersey, if that's any kind of useful metric.
The point is, he's gonna be a Yankee for a long time, no matter what the cost.
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