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Monday, February 24, 2014

IATB: Ellsbury, Gardner, And The Change In Yankee Philosophy

Trosty Icepick says…“To Yankee fans, those philosophies are sacred!”

It symbolizes the Yankee front office waking up to what’s been happening around them over the last 5 or so years and realizing that a team full of mashers isn’t going to get it done.  Pitching wins championships, and elite defense behind any kind of pitching can elevate a team’s chances to win just as much as a bunch of 30-HR hitters can.  That’s the kind of defense that Ellsbury and Gardner will provide.  Another thing that helps win championships is keeping your best players around while they’re in their prime, and the Yankees recognized that Gardner does fit that bill even without plus power.  He can hit at the top or bottom of a lineup, he can be an elite defensive outfielder in multiple positions, and he’s 30 years old.  He would have been expensive to retain had he hit the free agent market after this season, possibly too expensive for the Yankees’ plans.  Rather than take that risk, they decided to do the smart thing and negotiate an extension with him.  They said they wanted him around and they took proactive steps to ensure that he still would be.  What a concept!

And it’s not just Ellsbury and Gardner that stand out as examples of this evolving front office philosophy.  Look at some of the other moves they’ve made this offseason.  Brian McCann is one of the best catchers in the game and a well above-average hitter, but he’s no one-trick pony.  His defensive skills are just as good if not better than his bat, and the value he’ll bring to the pitching staff and team defense will be felt just as much as every home run he hit over the short porch.  Kelly Johnson certainly isn’t an All Star at any position, but he can play a bunch of them and play them well according to most defensive metrics.  Brendan Ryan‘s only draw is his glove, and that draw earned him a 3-year deal.  Do you think there’s any chance the Yanks would have given all-D/no-O Ryan that contract 5 years ago?  I doubt it.

This past offseason was a very successful one, and it got a little more successful yesterday with the Gardner extension.  Sure, there are a few things the Yanks could have done differently that could have made it better.  I know I’m no more comfortable with the situations at second and third right now than I was a week or a month ago.  But in looking at what the Yankees have done, they certainly appear as though they’re making a concerted effort to build a more balanced baseball team.  They’ve still got some mashers in the middle of the order, but they’ve surrounded them with better starting pitching, better overall pitching depth, more speed, better defense, and increased roster flexibility.  If the Gardner extension was a sign of new things to come as we move further away from the Core Four Era, we should all be excited about what the future may have in store for this franchise.

Repoz Posted: February 24, 2014 at 09:19 AM | 50 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: yankees

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   1. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: February 24, 2014 at 09:48 AM (#4661379)
Well at least I think this group has a better chance of paying off than their 1980s-era effort of signing speedsters Dave Collins and Omar Moreno. "Fans are more likely to pay to see the stolen base than the home run," or something like that, IIRC.
   2. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: February 24, 2014 at 09:54 AM (#4661381)
Another thing that helps win championships is keeping your best players around while they’re in their prime,

Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariner.


and the Yankees recognized that Gardner does fit that bill even without plus power. He can hit at the top or bottom of a lineup, he can be an elite defensive outfielder in multiple positions, and he’s 30 years old.

"30 years old" = "in Garnder's prime"?
   3. bigglou115 Posted: February 24, 2014 at 11:07 AM (#4661406)
I like McCann, and his D is underrated, but there is 0 chance anybody's going to look at McCann and say, "Yeah he's great! And believe it or not, he's a pretty good hitter as well!"
   4. shoelesjoe Posted: February 24, 2014 at 12:22 PM (#4661474)
elite defense behind any kind of pitching can elevate a team’s chances to win just as much as a bunch of 30-HR hitters can.

Odd statement considering the Yankees are about to field the worst defensive infield in decades. Maybe they figure Ellsbury and Gardner will keep all those extra grounders to the outfield from turning in to doubles and triples.
   5. The TVerik of Lordly Might Posted: February 24, 2014 at 12:25 PM (#4661479)
I'm stuck on the fact that Gardner and Ellsbury are essentially the same player. With Soriano in LF, I don't see how they can live in the same lineup, unless:

a) one of them DHs, which destroys a lot of what they bring

b) one of them plays RF, which I believe they are both defensively ill-suited to (besides being Beltran-ville), and leaves the team extremely underpowered.

I have seen quotes from Soriano that make me think he's very unfriendly to the DH concept. I guess we'll have to see how it plays out.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 24, 2014 at 12:30 PM (#4661484)
I'm stuck on the fact that Gardner and Ellsbury are essentially the same player. With Soriano in LF, I don't see how they can live in the same lineup, unless:

a) one of them DHs, which destroys a lot of what they bring

b) one of them plays RF, which I believe they are both defensively ill-suited to (besides being Beltran-ville), and leaves the team extremely underpowered.

I have seen quotes from Soriano that make me think he's very unfriendly to the DH concept. I guess we'll have to see how it plays out.


Soriano plays DH, except when Beltran does, end of story. Gardner plays LF or RF, depending on what park you're in.

The Yankees aren't going to be catering to Soriano's preferences here.
   7. valuearbitrageur Posted: February 24, 2014 at 12:35 PM (#4661492)
I was surprised that the Yanks signed Ellsbury instead of Cano (basically offering similar contracts), when they had Gardner and losing Cano leaves a huge hole. We can argue all day whether he would have taken it, but paying Cano 8 year $195m seems far better for the yanks than than the Ellsbury contract and they should have at least offered something like that.

I like McCann, and his D is underrated, but there is 0 chance anybody's going to look at McCann and say, "Yeah he's great! And believe it or not, he's a pretty good hitter as well!"


Most off McCanns dWAR comes from leading league in preventing inappropriate walk off celebrations.

I have seen quotes from Soriano that make me think he's very unfriendly to the DH concept. I guess we'll have to see how it plays out.


How unfriendly is Soriano to playing in Scranton?
   8. madvillain Posted: February 24, 2014 at 02:06 PM (#4661565)
Somehow I think if "a big hairy monster" (as the article weirdly describes a slugging outfielder) was available on the FA market the Yankees would have signed him.
   9. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 24, 2014 at 02:45 PM (#4661595)
I'm stuck on the fact that Gardner and Ellsbury are essentially the same player. With Soriano in LF, I don't see how they can live in the same lineup . . .

As noted in #6, that is not the Yankees best line-up. Soriano will mostly DH, and only play LF when Gardner or Ellsbury are out of the line-up. The only real decision is who plays RF when Beltran isn't there. After the 2013 experience, it doesn't seem all that likely that there will be that many days when too many good hitters are available, so it seems like a manageable "problem".
   10. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: February 24, 2014 at 03:31 PM (#4661615)
I have seen quotes from Soriano that make me think he's very unfriendly to the DH concept. I guess we'll have to see how it plays out.


He also had a hissy-fit when Frank Robinson moved him to LF. And then when he was a free agent, he said he was a LF and would not move back to 2B.

So, you know, he gets over it.
   11. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: February 24, 2014 at 03:33 PM (#4661616)
We can argue all day whether he would have taken it, but paying Cano 8 year $195m seems far better for the yanks than than the Ellsbury contract and they should have at least offered something like that.


He totally would have taken it. In the 2012-13 offseason. This last offseason? Nope. There was no sense of urgency to sign, and the Mariners would have shown up with their offer eventually, and he would have taken it.
   12. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: February 24, 2014 at 03:34 PM (#4661617)
McCann as a plus defender? Kelly Johnson? Are they grading on a curve in the Bronx now?
   13. Walt Davis Posted: February 24, 2014 at 03:38 PM (#4661619)
Yes, the Gardner extension makes it clear that he's the full-time starting OF. And, yes, it's bizarre to read an article about the Yanks recognition of defensive value when they'll be trotting Jeter out to SS. And Cano does have two GG but they let him go.

It's also not at all clear that this is a change in philosophy. They've been playing Gardner and Granderson for years. Extending a player is an odd way to effect a change in philosophy. They also went out and got Ichiro, a "legendary" defender and Vernon Wells, a former CF.

   14. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: February 24, 2014 at 03:52 PM (#4661624)
It's almost ridiculous that they might not sign Drew. I have to believe all this talk about them not being interested in him is bs.
   15. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 24, 2014 at 05:30 PM (#4661684)
It's also not at all clear that this is a change in philosophy.

I doubt that signing Gardner says much about any change in philosophy. It's about recognizing that more teams are signing talent before it reaches free agency. If Gardner produced the same value through higher slugging and worse defense, the Yankees would still have made the deal, IMHO. Might have had to pay a little more, though.
   16. Cris E Posted: February 24, 2014 at 06:10 PM (#4661712)
One thing the great Yankees teams (all great teams, really) did was stay healthy. The best players were playing and the subs were watching. And back in the day if you tried listing out the general attributes that comprised a "true Yankee" archtype, one of them would be someone who shows up every day and plays. The moves to Ellsbury and Gardner, the loss of Cano, the aging of Jeter and Suzuki and ARod, all are trending away from guys who play 150+ games and towards more subs and part-timers. It's not an absolute thing, but if you want to examine changes this is not a positive one.

EDIT: I probably shouldn't have said true Yankee because it'll distract from the main point. Oh well.
   17. Cris E Posted: February 24, 2014 at 06:11 PM (#4661714)
And yes, Gardner is different because this is retention vs a change like Cano going or Ellsbury arriving.
   18. valuearbitrageur Posted: February 24, 2014 at 10:49 PM (#4661841)
He totally would have taken it. In the 2012-13 offseason. This last offseason? Nope. There was no sense of urgency to sign, and the Mariners would have shown up with their offer eventually, and he would have taken it.


I'm not so certain. There is a great deal of value in not spending the last decade of your career not playing for a bad organization/team 2,500 miles away And the $195M isn't far from $240M when he has two more years and more endorsement deals to make up the difference.

And the real question is why didn't the Yanks try? It's clear they never got close, and regarded Cano as barely more valuable than Ellsbury
   19. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: February 24, 2014 at 11:08 PM (#4661849)
And the real question is why didn't the Yanks try? It's clear they never got close, and regarded Cano as barely more valuable than Ellsbury


They offered Cano $25 million a year, and Ellsbury under $22 million a year. It was the last three years that they didn't want to commit to, and I do not blame them at all.

And the $195M isn't far from $240M when he has two more years and more endorsement deals to make up the difference.


Cano said he would have signed with the Yankees for 10 years, $235 million after the Mariners offered him $240 million. He wasn't taking that big a discount. And those two years to make up the $45 million difference you're proposing would have been at the end of his career.

The Yankees paid $30 million for Alex Rodriguez last year, and the time he missed was not due to the steroids issue. They had no interest in replaying that late contract scenario again.
   20. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: February 24, 2014 at 11:13 PM (#4661851)
And the real question is why didn't the Yanks try? It's clear they never got close, and regarded Cano as barely more valuable than Ellsbury


I still can't believe the Yankees let Cano get away. They already had a very good CF in Gardner, with Beltran and Soriano in the corners. To sign Ellsbury and not him makes me think he must have really rubbed the org the wrong way, both personally and in the negotiations.
   21. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: February 25, 2014 at 12:07 AM (#4661868)
To sign Ellsbury and not him makes me think he must have really rubbed the org the wrong way, both personally and in the negotiations.


They offered him $25 million a year *after* they signed Ellsbury. He left because they didn't want to pay him $25 million when he was 40. And if the Mariners hadn't come up with $240 million, they very likely would have re-signed him.

Ellsbury/Cano wasn't the either/or. Beltran/Cano was the either/or, and they chose Cano. When Cano chose the Mariners, they settled on Beltran.
   22. valuearbitrageur Posted: February 25, 2014 at 03:12 AM (#4661898)
They offered him $25 million a year *after* they signed Ellsbury. He left because they didn't want to pay him $25 million when he was 40. And if the Mariners hadn't come up with $240 million, they very likely would have re-signed him.


If he was worth 7/$175M to the Yankees, he was worth 8/$200M or 8/$210M, again at some point it's close enough he's not taking extra to miss the playoffs for a decade in Seattle.

Ellsbury/Cano wasn't the either/or. Beltran/Cano was the either/or, and they chose Cano. When Cano chose the Mariners, they settled on Beltran.


If that's true, it's crazy, you don't choose between Beltran or Cano. And since they already had a premium center fielder, the choice should have been Beltran or Ellsbury, Cano should have been a given.

Whatever the decision making process, the biggest reason the Yankees will suck this year and next is going to be the loss of Robby Cano. For what they spent on Ellsbury & Beltran they could have had Cano and more wins. Instead they created a crowded outfield so the plus center fielder they already had is going to play out of position, lowering his value, and so they could play near replacement level second basemen.
   23. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: February 25, 2014 at 12:26 PM (#4662136)
OK, here's the key thing: At the time the Yankees were offering 7/$175 to Cano, there were no offers for Cano at 7/$175MM. Theirs was the only offer that Cano had. To say "well, they should have given him 8/$195MM" is to say that they should have bid against themselves. Had the Mariners not come along, the Yankees would have signed him for 7/$175MM. Not "might have" - WOULD have. There was no point in between where Cano said "well, the Tigers are offering 8 years at $190MM" -- it was always "I want more than that." Well, of course he does. But until he can show that someone is willing to offer him more than that, or even anything CLOSE to that, it's plain stupid to increase your offer. And the Yankees would have absolutely been excoriated in these parts if they had bid against themselves and increased their offer with NO competition. You know, the same way they are excoriated for giving A-Rod the huge contract after it was established that nobody was interested in giving him a contract nearly that large.

The Mariners came in and offered him 10 years/$240MM. At that point, 8/$195MM would no longer be good enough, or even close to good enough. So there was no point where 8/$195MM was a good offer to make. *Maybe* he would have signed if that was the opening offer, but it would have been a massive overpay at the time. Nobody expected the Mariners to show up with their offer.

Of course the Yankees are going to miss Cano terribly. But there *is* a point where you say the cost is not worth it. With Cano, Ellsbury, McCann and Tanaka, the Yankees would have been *probably* in a more competitive position this season than they are now, but it certainly wouldn't make them the best team in baseball, and losing him doesn't knock them out of contention -- they would need the pitching staff to hold together and the old guys to stay more or less healthy for it to work out either way. And had they signed him to the M's contract, then 7 or 8 years from now, they'd be very likely stuck for a couple more years with a huge contract on a 1B/DH who isn't a particularly good hitter anymore. If it was 2009 and that was the difference between being a contender and winning the World Series, well then okay. But if it's the difference between being a team that might make the playoffs and a team that is a little more likely to make the playoffs, but still probably more unlikely than likely, I don't think it's worth that commitment.

If you're making a choice between Cano/Ichiro/Chris Stewart or McCann/Beltran/Kelly Johnson, the second option is obviously worse this year, but 7 years from now I think they're better off with the flexibility.

Especially if Mike Trout is a free agent at age 26 or 28.
   24. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: February 25, 2014 at 12:26 PM (#4662137)
I think the Ellsbury contract was never a "Cano or Ellsbury?", it was "Granderson or Ellsbury?"
   25. Nasty Nate Posted: February 25, 2014 at 12:38 PM (#4662145)
OK, here's the key thing: At the time the Yankees were offering 7/$175 to Cano, there were no offers for Cano at 7/$175MM. Theirs was the only offer that Cano had. To say "well, they should have given him 8/$195MM" is to say that they should have bid against themselves. Had the Mariners not come along, the Yankees would have signed him for 7/$175MM. Not "might have" - WOULD have. There was no point in between where Cano said "well, the Tigers are offering 8 years at $190MM" -- it was always "I want more than that." Well, of course he does. But until he can show that someone is willing to offer him more than that, or even anything CLOSE to that, it's plain stupid to increase your offer. And the Yankees would have absolutely been excoriated in these parts if they had bid against themselves and increased their offer with NO competition. You know, the same way they are excoriated for giving A-Rod the huge contract after it was established that nobody was interested in giving him a contract nearly that large.

The Mariners came in and offered him 10 years/$240MM.


How do you know any of these specifics?
How could Cano "show" that someone else was making offers?

If a team was willing to pay him 240/10, then increasing an offer from 175/7 isn't bidding against oneself. The Mariners didn't just appear out of smoke and join the major leagues suddenly in the middle of the fall.
   26. Mark Donelson Posted: February 25, 2014 at 12:48 PM (#4662149)
If a team was willing to pay him 240/10,


They were supposed to know this before anyone actually made such an offer, or anything like it? (I mean, it was considered kind of shocking when the news broke, if you recall.)
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 25, 2014 at 12:52 PM (#4662152)
How do you know any of these specifics?
How could Cano "show" that someone else was making offers?


Do you think teams in baseball don't know what each other are doing? I'm sure every MLB front office, and agent's office for that matter. leak like a sieve. There are too many guys, with too many friends moving between jobs.

If national Gov'ts with huge security aparatuses can'rt keep secrets, what hope do MLB teams have?

I'm sure the Yankees could find out exactly what Seattle offered if they wanted to.
   28. Nasty Nate Posted: February 25, 2014 at 12:53 PM (#4662156)
They were supposed to know this before anyone actually made such an offer, or anything like it? (I mean, it was considered kind of shocking when the news broke, if you recall.)


They were supposed to ballpark estimate the other offers Cano would receive. That's why they presumably didn't start the offseason by suggesting $100m/5 and waiting for other teams to bid, etc.

Teams can't know when other teams make offers. It would be naive to just simply take published rumors and/or the agents' claims at face value.
   29. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 25, 2014 at 12:56 PM (#4662160)
Teams can't know when other teams make offers. It would be naive to just simply take published rumors and/or the agents' claims at face value.

Sure they can. You don't think they have sources in other orgs and agents' offices?
   30. Nasty Nate Posted: February 25, 2014 at 01:01 PM (#4662168)
Well then, if the Yankees knew what the Mariners were going to offer, it wouldn't have been bidding against themselves to raise their offer.

Sure they can. You don't think they have sources in other orgs and agents' offices?


Well, if there are spies and intelligence operations, there are also counter-intelligence operations. Either way, teams can't be completely confident that they know other teams' offers.

And even if the Yankees knew something, how does Best Regards, President of Comfort know what they knew and when they knew it?
   31. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: February 25, 2014 at 01:20 PM (#4662187)
Well then, if the Yankees knew what the Mariners were going to offer, it wouldn't have been bidding against themselves to raise their offer.


I don't think anyone expected the Mariners to offer 10 years, $240 million until they did. I don't think *they* expected themselves to offer that until they did.

The bid was clearly designed to blow the Yankees' offer out of the water -- rather than incrementally increase the bidding (if you're willing to pay $175MM over 7, then is $190MM over 8 really a stretch? Okay... well, if you're now willing to pay $190MM over 8, how about $200MM over 9? $210MM over 9? $220MM over 10? Okay, well, we've already decided to give you $220MM over 10... is itt really that difficult to go ahead and give you the $240MM over 10?) -- you make the Yankees decide right now if they're willing to increase their offer 3 years and $65MM. Even though it's the same result, without the interim concessions it's a harder pill to swallow. The Mariners did NOT want a bidding war. They decided "okay, we're willing to pay this. Let's just give it to him now." Maybe that was more than they would have had to pay if they *had* gotten in a bidding war, but it also carried less risk of not getting their guy.

If you go back and read the coverage -- not just Yankees coverage, but all around baseball -- before the Mariners made their bid, the sentiment was that all that was going to happen is that Cano and Jay-Z would eventually have to lower their demand, and the Yankees would probably raise their offer a little, and ultimately Cano would re-sign with the Yankees -- probably for less than $200 million, probably for fewer than 10 years. And then the Mariners offer came in, the Yankees said that when they heard what the offer was they knew he wasn't coming back, and it was over. That quick.
   32. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: February 25, 2014 at 01:27 PM (#4662198)
Sure they can. You don't think they have sources in other orgs and agents' offices?


Is that why the blind bids for Matsuzaka and Darvish were so tightly clustered?
   33. The District Attorney Posted: February 25, 2014 at 01:40 PM (#4662217)
I still think you sign Cano/Drew/McCann/Tanaka and deal with sucking ass at RF and DH, which is a worlds easier problem to fix than sucking ass up the middle.

Ellsbury's going to make $63M at ages 34-36, 2018-2020. And signing the world in an attempt to compensate for the loss of Cano puts the Yanks into repeat offender salary cap hell. I think the second point is a much larger problem going forward than Cano making $72M in 2021-23. And the first point very easily could be as large a problem or more. At least expenditures eight years away can be planned for, and can be made less painful by inflation. Anyway, if the contract helps the team a lot prior to that, it can be seen as the price you pay.

I agree with #20 that Kevin Long wasn't just slamming a guy out of spite, but was expressing legitimate concerns within the organization, and that this did figure into the Yankees' thinking that Cano wouldn't age well. And they could be correct about that, for sure. We won't know for many years. But, this is my opinion as of now, and it has the advantage of being very likely to be the right play at least in the short-term. (Unless Brian Roberts/Scott Sizemore/Kelly Johnson/etc. come through, which, to be fair, would be far from the longest shot ever to work out for the Yankees.)
   34. Mark Donelson Posted: February 25, 2014 at 01:42 PM (#4662220)
They were supposed to ballpark estimate the other offers Cano would receive.

As Larry says, they did. They didn't see anything as huge as the M's offer coming, nor did most anyone else until it did--which was, again as Larry says, the precise point of the M's suddenly huge offer.

And once it came, it was "Beat this offer--or at least get damn close to it--or I'm gone." 8/$195--which ironically may have been around what the Yankees figured they'd ultimately settle at with Cano--no longer would get it done.

As to how we know this, it's how the Cano story has generally been reported all along. Might there be some things in there that were never reported? Sure. But absent any evidence (or even rumor!) that there were any offers between the Yankees' 7/$175 and the M's 10/$240, why assume there were?

EDIT: Incidentally, I'm not saying I'm certain the Yankees were right to bail at the idea of matching/beating the M's offer. But I don't think the strategy of sticking at $7/$175 in the absence of any other offers was foolish.
   35. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 25, 2014 at 01:53 PM (#4662233)
Is that why the blind bids for Matsuzaka and Darvish were so tightly clustered?

A single blind bid is much easier to keep under wraps than active multi-party negotiations, with lots of back and forth.
   36. Nasty Nate Posted: February 25, 2014 at 01:54 PM (#4662236)
They were supposed to ballpark estimate the other offers Cano would receive.

As Larry says, they did. They didn't see anything as huge as the M's offer coming, nor did most anyone else until it did--which was, again as Larry says, the precise point of the M's suddenly huge offer.

Well, then their estimate was faulty. If the Yankees would have been happy to have him at 8/$195m (I don't know if this is true) and if they could have had him at this price if they made the offer in a timely manner (I also don't know if this is true), then they made a negotiating mistake.

As to how we know this, it's how the Cano story has generally been reported all along. Might there be some things in there that were never reported? Sure. But absent any evidence (or even rumor!) that there were any offers between the Yankees' 7/$175 and the M's 10/$240, why assume there were?


There were reports of the Mariners making a 9-year offer, see here and elsewhere.
   37. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: February 25, 2014 at 02:20 PM (#4662264)
Is that why the blind bids for Matsuzaka and Darvish were so tightly clustered?

A single blind bid is much easier to keep under wraps than active multi-party negotiations, with lots of back and forth.


"You don't think they have sources in other orgs and agents' offices?"
   38. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: February 25, 2014 at 02:57 PM (#4662292)
There were reports of the Mariners making a 9-year offer, see here and elsewhere.


Your link: PUBLISHED: THURSDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2013, 9:04 PM

Robinson Cano agrees to $240 million deal with Mariners

Dec 6, 2013, 11:04 AM EST

He agreed to a contract less than a day -- almost less than half a day -- after that report. The 12th is the day that he officially signed a piece of paper, but he agreed to be a Mariner on the morning of the 6th.
   39. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 25, 2014 at 03:04 PM (#4662296)

"You don't think they have sources in other orgs and agents' offices?"


Sure, and some teams probably do know some other teams intentions.

But, agents weren't involved in the posting bids, and fewer front office people would know. So, less chance of leaks.
   40. Nasty Nate Posted: February 25, 2014 at 03:17 PM (#4662312)
He agreed to a contract less than a day -- almost less than half a day -- after that report.


Yes, I remember that reports about him agreeing to a 10-year deal came almost immediately after reports that Seattle was offering him a 9-year deal.
   41. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: February 25, 2014 at 03:44 PM (#4662339)
Yes, I remember that reports about him agreeing to a 10-year deal came almost immediately after reports that Seattle was offering him a 9-year deal.


And before that, there were no reports that he had received any other offers. The story went from "The Yankees have the only offer on the board and nobody else seems to be making an offer" to "Robinson Cano signs with a Mariners" very, very quickly.
   42. pkb33 Posted: February 26, 2014 at 11:27 PM (#4663303)
OK, here's the key thing: At the time the Yankees were offering 7/$175 to Cano, there were no offers for Cano at 7/$175MM. Theirs was the only offer that Cano had.


It stuns me that someone who cares enough about baseball that they post on a messageboard about it would be so completely ignorant about the difference between 'what I happened to read in the media' and 'what each team in baseball has told that player's agent'

We can speculate, but pretending we can do more than that is ridiculous.
   43. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: February 26, 2014 at 11:54 PM (#4663319)
We can speculate, but pretending we can do more than that is ridiculous.


Yeah, I'm always impressed by the degree of certainty internetters seem to have when discussing this stuff. I still find it difficult to decide which reports to take at face value and which to develop elaborate conspiracy theories around.
   44. Squash Posted: February 27, 2014 at 02:18 AM (#4663344)
I still think the Yankees didn't expect to lose Cano until they did - who really thought they would? And then, as Larry said, when the huge Mariners offer came in they were somewhat stunned, they wobbled, and then he sort of disappeared in the heat of the moment. Everybody was laying very heavy odds Cano was going to be a Yankee, even seemingly Cano ... and then suddenly he wasn't.

Regarding endorsements, I would love to see the numbers, but I'm fairly positive that Cano will make much more as a Mariner with this contract than he would as a Yankee with their contract and the "Yankee" endorsements. Baseball players just aren't that big on the endorsement circuit. Particularly the Latin guys. NBA players and quarterbacks are where it's at. I would be surprised if Cano as a Yankee were pulling down much more than a couple hundred grand a year, which is nothing compared to the back end of the Seattle deal.
   45. pkb33 Posted: February 27, 2014 at 09:03 AM (#4663375)
Yeah, I'm always impressed by the degree of certainty internetters seem to have when discussing this stuff. I still find it difficult to decide which reports to take at face value and which to develop elaborate conspiracy theories around.


If one reads books/interviews with actual GMs/front office people they consistently say that 1) a lot of what we see publically reported is not true at all and 2) a huge % of actual deal talk is never reported.

I get that people need to fill space in blogs and things, but anyone who has been following baseball at all closely for any length of time should know better.
   46. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: February 27, 2014 at 04:35 PM (#4663795)
10/240 was certainly a shock. But the notion that the Yankees didn't know that somebody was going to step up and bid >200m is batshit insanity. There is no way they thought they were in the lead with 7/175. That offer was an insult, not a serious offer.
   47. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: February 27, 2014 at 04:59 PM (#4663802)
Who else beat it?
   48. Nasty Nate Posted: February 27, 2014 at 05:06 PM (#4663808)
10/240 was certainly a shock. ... 7/175. That offer was an insult


These statements contradict each other somewhat.
   49. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2014 at 06:54 PM (#4663855)
These statements contradict each other somewhat.

I don't see how an offer can be an insult if it stood for months without anyone topping it. 28 of the other 29 teams thought that was too much for Cano.
   50. Nasty Nate Posted: February 27, 2014 at 07:51 PM (#4663869)
I don't think that offer was an insult but we don't know how long it stood or what other teams' offers were.

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