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Thursday, July 13, 2017

If Mike Trout played the rest of his career in Korea - an OOTP experiment

I used OOTP, a highly realistic baseball simulation game, to get the answers I wanted. I placed Mike Trout on Korea’s KT Wiz, the team playing in the biggest hitters’ park in the league. To ensure Trout didn’t get homesick before I was through with him, I deleted the MLB and all its players and prospects. The only baseball league in the world is the Korean Baseball Organization, and its superstar is Mike Trout. At only age 24 going into the first season, can the Millville Meteor become the greatest baseball player South Korea has ever seen over the rest of his career?

PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2017 at 10:42 AM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mike trout, out of the park baseball

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   1. RMc's Unenviable Situation Posted: July 13, 2017 at 11:04 AM (#5492799)
This is great! Maybe I'll put Trout in the Italian League, or a made-up league where everybody else is crap!
   2. Rally Posted: July 13, 2017 at 11:13 AM (#5492808)
To ensure Trout didn’t get homesick before I was through with him, I deleted the MLB and all its players and prospects. The only baseball league in the world is the Korean Baseball Organization, and its superstar is Mike Trout.


Sounds like something Kim Jong-un would like to do.
   3. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2017 at 11:15 AM (#5492814)
His late career reminds me of Rickey Henderson and Mickey Mantle. He hung on- after he had lost every skill but his batting eye - for half a decade.
   4. catomi01 Posted: July 13, 2017 at 02:48 PM (#5493068)
I like the part where it made him a DH in the middle of his career for no reason. One of the fun parts about OOTP is playing as GM-only and watching some of the odd decisions the manager will make. Midway through the 2017 season, I wasn't sure whether to fire Girardi or give him a raise when he replaced an injured Sabathia with Chapman in the rotation. I applauded the initiative, but have to think going from a max of 25-30 pitches a game to full-fledged starter in June is not a great idea.
   5. Rally Posted: July 13, 2017 at 03:01 PM (#5493079)
That was one of the learning curves moving from APBA. In APBA a starter was a starter and a reliever was a reliever. Each pitcher had a grade for each role. Sometimes you'd have a guy with a mix grade, maybe he's an 8 starter and an 11 reliever, but most guys in my league were one or the other. I set up rules about how a guy's rating should change if you convert him from one role to the other, but it was a deliberate thing. An owner would have to call or email to say he wants a pitcher changed.

In OOTP the computer just makes the change every now and then. I learned that if I want to keep a good pitcher in the bullpen, either make him a one or 2 pitch pitcher, or set his stamina rating very low.

Another odd decision I saw was with a marginal hitting first baseman with a great glove. I guess he had acceptable throwing ratings as well, so the computer decided to make him a third baseman (I didn't have him rated at third when I imported the league over) - despite the fact that he was a lefty thrower.
   6. Rally Posted: July 13, 2017 at 03:04 PM (#5493083)
One thing I can't quite get the computer teams to do is stop leading off with your speedy center fielder with a .280 OBP. In some cases the guy is worth playing, we have a few guys who fit the description who are great fielders and have some power, and the team doesn't have anyone better to play CF, but the guy should be hitting 7th to 9th, not leading off.

Not sure how to force the computer to bat him low in the lineup, even if I set the lineup up myself it will switch back as soon as any kind of change is needed.
   7. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2017 at 03:06 PM (#5493086)
I've recently played about 50 years, GM-only in a historical replay league with random debuts. The game has flaws, but it's fun.

I'm impressed with the Trout in Korea sim - the results look pretty reasonable.
   8. vortex of dissipation Posted: July 13, 2017 at 03:18 PM (#5493094)
I don't play OOTP, so I don't know if this is possible, but is there a way to do the reverse, and run a sim to see how Sadaharu Oh or Yutaka Enatsu would have fared in MLB?
   9. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2017 at 03:25 PM (#5493096)
I don't think that they have historical Japanese players. I also don't know if the engine is really strong enough to be trusted.
   10. Rally Posted: July 13, 2017 at 04:00 PM (#5493124)
I run a league with my own fictional players, I can create Brienne of Tarth, give her baseball abilities, and put her into the game. So all it would take is someone willing create a league and come up with abilities for Saduharu Oh, then run an MLB replay from 1959-1980.

If OOTP did this they'd probably use Szymborski's translations, since I see they are using ZIPS for current minor leaguers. Whether I did this, you did it, or the game company had Szym do it, your initial estimate of Oh's ability is just the best guess of the person doing the forecasting. It's putting the cart before the horse. How would Oh have hit over here? First you have to tell the computer how well Oh would have hit over here. Then from there, his development will be a result of the random forces that affect players as they age.
   11. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: July 13, 2017 at 04:14 PM (#5493129)
Middle tables:

Oh
Enatsu
   12. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2017 at 04:18 PM (#5493135)
How would Oh have hit over here? First you have to tell the computer how well Oh would have hit over here.


I'm having fun with this actually. Trying to see if I can backwards engineer a Sadaharu Oh while accepting the league's own league translations.
   13. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 13, 2017 at 06:25 PM (#5493197)
One thing I can't quite get the computer teams to do is stop leading off with your speedy center fielder with a .280 OBP. In some cases the guy is worth playing, we have a few guys who fit the description who are great fielders and have some power, and the team doesn't have anyone better to play CF, but the guy should be hitting 7th to 9th, not leading off.

Not sure how to force the computer to bat him low in the lineup, even if I set the lineup up myself it will switch back as soon as any kind of change is needed.


There's a setting somewhere for that--you can direct the AI to set their lineups in a Traditional or Sabermetric way. If you set it to Sabermetric then more AI teams will bat the speedster with the .280 OBP at the bottom of the lineup--but not all of them; a manager whose personal philosophy setting is Traditional will still insist on batting the fastest guy leadoff.
   14. Nero Wolfe, Indeed Posted: July 13, 2017 at 06:28 PM (#5493198)
I run a league with my own fictional players, I can create Brienne of Tarth, give her baseball abilities, and put her into the game.


This could be fun. Tyrion Lannister would lead the league in OBP, Ned Stark would suddenly lose his batting eye, and Jon Snow could resurrect his career.

   15. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 13, 2017 at 06:33 PM (#5493201)
Managing many thousands of games of OOTP and tinkering around with various strategies has caused me to develop pretty solidly held philosophies. Most notably in the realms of lineup construction (always alternate R-L-R where possible, try to avoid batting two slow, high contact guys together to minimize GIDPs, otherwise just order them high OPS to low, basically) and bullpen management (make your relief ace the FIRST guy out of the bullpen when the starter gives way, not the last, and let him throw ~40 pitches then give him the next day off--over the long haul you'll get a lot more value out of him this way than by targeting saves--but it only works in a DH league).

The one thing about OOTP that has driven me nuts for years, and continues to do so, is that it sets players as Hot or Cold and that actually and dramatically alters their performance. It's gamey but effective to just IBB a Hot Streaking hitter in any late-and-close situation because he's going to hit like 1997 Larry Walker, and gods help you if one of your pitchers goes on a Cold Streak. And there has never been any setting to turn it off. Apparently the OOTP developers fervently believe that hot-and-cold is a real thing and not just random statistical clustering or (in the case of "cold streaks") nagging injuries.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: July 14, 2017 at 02:53 AM (#5493319)
Surely there is no way that Trump would allow $500+ M of baseball production to move overseas while coal miners in West Virginia remain unemployed.
   17. McCoy Posted: July 14, 2017 at 07:32 AM (#5493334)
I will always have an unhealthy obsession with Rock Shoulders because of OOTP. I forget which iteration of OOTP I had but it had to be around the 2013 version when the software created a monster of a hall of famer out of Rock Shoulder. The guy was putting up 40 to 50 homer seasons with an OPS of over 1.000 year after year for me it was outstanding. When I reset the league and played again I tracked Rock Shoulders through the minors but he didn't developed again into much of anything. Reset it again and again he flopped. Tried several more times and each time he flopped. Broke my heart.
   18. RMc's Unenviable Situation Posted: July 14, 2017 at 08:54 AM (#5493357)
Mickey Mantle. He hung on - after he had lost every skill but his batting eye - for half a decade.

I've actually created OOTP scenarios where Mantle kept playing; one had Mick (who was still one of the 10 best hitters in the league in 1968) going to the expansion KC Royals in '69. He stuck around until 1975 -- an immobile 43-year-old 1B/DH who could still draw walks and hit the occasional tater. I think he finished with over 600 HR.
   19. Rally Posted: July 14, 2017 at 09:15 AM (#5493369)
He hung on - after he had lost every skill but his batting eye - for half a decade.


In various sims I've seen that happen every now and then, a veteran player increases his batting eye rating while everything else fell apart. In one it happened to David Wright, which is a much friendlier end to his career than what appears to be happening.

I think it's a bit of a flaw. Careful research might find some counter examples but my impression of baseball is that when something like this happens, it lasts for about a year. Then the league figures out that you are not the hitting threat you used to be, and pounds the strike zone on you. Classic example - Willie Mays 1971. 40 years old and he leads the league in walks with 112 - 30 more than he ever had in his prime.

Rickey is an exception - he had 4 years of walk taking after his last good year batting, but Rickey was a non-power threat early in his career and took a bunch of walks then. He had the eye and shrunk his strike zone with the crouch. Mays wasn't really a big walk taker, he'd get 60-80 per year in his prime because he was such a feared hitter. Willie turning into a guy whose walk total was more impressive than his HR total did not last long.
   20. Rally Posted: July 14, 2017 at 09:19 AM (#5493372)
I've actually created OOTP scenarios where Mantle kept playing; one had Mick (who was still one of the 10 best hitters in the league in 1968) going to the expansion KC Royals in '69. He stuck around until 1975 -- an immobile 43-year-old 1B/DH who could still draw walks and hit the occasional tater. I think he finished with over 600 HR.


Another interesting one is the American League adopting the DH rule in 1961, and Ted Williams deciding the role was perfect for him so he sticks around. That's probably too much revolution to tolerate in real life since that was the first year of expansion and 162 games.

Always curious to see how long a truly great and ageless hitter could last. Franco was ageless, but he was a good, not great hitter. Ruth was great, but didn't take great care of himself and was not ageless.

We have had 2 chances - Bonds and Williams, and blew it both times.
   21. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: July 14, 2017 at 09:27 AM (#5493378)
We have had 2 chances - Bonds and Williams, and blew it both times.
Gods do answer hypotheticals.
   22. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 14, 2017 at 11:32 AM (#5493507)
Ok, this was pretty fun.

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