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Thursday, December 18, 2008

In Defense of the Jason Bay Trade

Missing from Dejan Kovacevic’s answer is the obvious point that the Pirates are trying to trade for prospects not to take advantage of market conditions, but because they have to. I’m all for exploiting the market, but if you do that instead of pursuing broader franchise goals, you’ll end up with a mishmash of mismatched talent.

Kovacevic continues to wish the Pirates had only made the Xavier Nady / Damaso Marte deal and to criticize the team for trading Jason Bay for Andy LaRoche, Craig Hansen, Brandon Moss and Bryan Morris instead of keeping Bay and signing him to an extension. This position might be easier to accept if Kovacevic had advanced it at the time of the trades, but as far as I can tell, he didn’t. (To be fair, I don’t remember him praising it, either.) In fact, the reaction to the trades at the time, not from Kovacevic but from the most knowledgeable fans and analysts, was that the Bay trade was the good one and that the Nady/Marte deal left something to be desired. (For what it’s worth, I liked them both.) To criticize the Bay trade only now, after watching LaRoche flounder with the Pirates, seems unfair.

Tripon Posted: December 18, 2008 at 07:30 AM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: pirates

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   1. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 18, 2008 at 04:50 PM (#3032570)
Missing from Dejan Kovacevic’s answer is the obvious point that the Pirates are trying to trade for prospects not to take advantage of market conditions, but because they have to.


Kovacevic is advancing the viewpoint that they DON'T have to - that the most cost-effective approach might be to use the market to field a team that's competitive while rebuilding the farm system through more traditional routes (the draft, increased presence in Latin America, etc.) While this has been the team's stated goal going all the way back to Cam Bonifay, the fact of the matter is that under McClatchy, the Pirates diverted resources AWAY from the farm system; they've never really focused on a top-to-bottom rebuild until the current management team took over.

I don't know that Kovacevic is right about this, but I don't think the argument should be dismissed out of hand.

In fact, the reaction to the trades at the time, not from Kovacevic but from the most knowledgeable fans and analysts, was that the Bay trade was the good one and that the Nady/Marte deal left something to be desired.


I wasn't happy with either trade. I thought then, and think now, that people overvalued LaRoche and that the only prospect with any real upside in the deals was Morris.

-- MWE
   2. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: December 18, 2008 at 05:12 PM (#3032593)
What do you think is the appropriate value for LaRoche? I know you think he isn't aggressive enough at the plate, but it seems like with the right coach, he has the skills to do well. Only looking at his stats, he looks like he could be a pretty strong player.
   3. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 18, 2008 at 05:28 PM (#3032615)
What do you think is the appropriate value for LaRoche?


I can't really think of a good 3B comp for him right now. Larry Parrish with more walks, maybe - except that by age 24 Parrish was already an established major leaguer.

-- MWE
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 18, 2008 at 05:33 PM (#3032622)
I can't really think of a good 3B comp for him right now. Larry Parrish with more walks, maybe - except that by age 24 Parrish was already an established major leaguer.

ZiPS like Ken McMullen and Eric Soderholm.
   5. Gainsay Posted: December 18, 2008 at 05:41 PM (#3032631)
The thing that is missing from this discussion is any inkling of what sort of extension Bay might have accepted. If he was willing to do a 3 or 4 year deal with a bit of a hometown discount(say covering 2010-2013 for $50m-$55m), then I probably would have preferred that. If Huntington tried that, and Bay wasn't receptive, I think trading him was the right choice.
   6. Gaelan Posted: December 18, 2008 at 05:49 PM (#3032645)
Trading good players for bad players is always a bad idea no matter how young those bad players.
   7. WTM Posted: December 18, 2008 at 06:14 PM (#3032689)
I can't imagine Bay accepting a 3-4 year deal, leaving him to get another contract at age 33-34. I have to think he'll be looking for a 6-7 year deal, to get some security for a chunk of his likely decline years.
   8. Gainsay Posted: December 18, 2008 at 06:26 PM (#3032702)
I can see where he certainly would want that, but I don't think the Pirates should have wanted any part of that. If they weren't going to get him at an extension they could live with, I think he really had to be traded before last year's deadline.
   9. Darren Posted: December 18, 2008 at 06:36 PM (#3032712)
If Bay's defense stays as bad as it was in 08, he's looking a lot like Pat Burrell, who appears to be having a hard time getting 3/40ish.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: December 18, 2008 at 07:42 PM (#3032860)
#6 pretty much nails it. I wasn't wowed by this trade from the Pirates' perspective because I'm unimpressed by LaRoche so far -- at the time I recall suggesting it wasn't clear that he's really significantly better than Bautista. LaRoche, Moss and Hansen are all at an age where they really should have established themselves by now -- at least if they were going to turn out good. Still, the Pirates really only need one of the 4 to turn out well to win this trade from their perspective -- making it the rare win-win-win trade?

On #7 ... I'd find that unlikely actually. Given Bay was already signed for 2009, a 3-4 year extension would have been the most he could hope for I'd think. I suppose all good-hitting, not so good fielding LF dream of Carlos Lee's 6/$100 contract but so far he's the only guy to have gotten one. And boy is Bay lucky he's an FA next year instead of this one.
   11. jwb Posted: December 18, 2008 at 11:03 PM (#3033173)
Eric Soderholm
He better watch his step around storm sewer drains.
   12. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 18, 2008 at 11:33 PM (#3033238)
"He better watch his step around storm sewer drains."

Always a good idea.
   13. WTM Posted: December 19, 2008 at 01:17 AM (#3033345)
#10,

The problem is that, when it's a question of the Pirates trying to sign Bay to an extension, what matters isn't what you think he'll end up with. It's whether he'll pass up the chance to try for a longer deal to return to Pittsburgh. What are the odds of that? And once he's in the market, the Pirates' chances of retaining him are nil.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: December 19, 2008 at 02:20 AM (#3033401)
What are the odds of that?

Don't know. But if you come to him early in 2008, with him already signed for 2009, and offer him an extension through 2012-13, with probably a little more upfront money in 08-09 ... that's going to be a big risk he's taking and a hard offer to turn down, especially after the year he had in 2007.

I'm not saying the Pirates should have done that (especially after the year he had in 2007 :-) and for all I know they did and he turned it down. And I'm not sure keeping Bay would have been a good idea for 2009. But I suspect that players (and certainly their agents) value long-term security a good bit more than we think they do.

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