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Saturday, December 27, 2008

In Lahman’s Terms: Predicting the HOF Vote

The other Sean predicts the HOF vote…

There are 23 players on this year’s ballot, and I feel fairly safe in predicting that only two players will reach the 75% needed to get in: Rickey Henderson, in his first year on the ballot, and Jim Rice, in his final year of eligibility. Here are my predictions for the percentage of votes each player will receive. Players in their first year of eligibility are marked with an asterisk.

95 Rickey Henderson *
77 Jim Rice
62 Andre Dawson
60 Bert Blyleven
46 Lee Smith
41 Jack Morris
38 Tommy John
29 Tim Raines
27 Mark McGwire
19 Alan Trammell
15 Don Mattingly
14 Dave Parker
12 Mark Grace *
11 Dale Murphy
9 David Cone *
7 Harold Baines
5 Mo Vaughn *
4 Matt Williams *
3 Jesse Orosco *
3 Greg Vaughn *
2 Ron Gant *
2 Jay Bell *
1 Dan Plesac *

Thanks to mellis for this also…

Repoz Posted: December 27, 2008 at 06:10 AM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: hall of fame, history, projections, sabermetrics

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1. Dag Nabbit apealing [sic] his own check swing Posted: December 27, 2008 at 06:27 AM (#3038793)

This reminds me, I got to start work on my predictions soon.

Scanning it briefly - I think he's low on Rice and high on Raines. He's probably high on McGwire as well.

Ah what the heck - (checks last year's results) - I'm pretty confident he's low on each of the top four.

2. Dag Nabbit apealing [sic] his own check swing Posted: December 27, 2008 at 06:32 AM (#3038794)

Nineteen players have received between 70 and 75 percent on a ballot. Sixteen of them made it the next year. The other three (Nellie Fox, Jim Bunning, Orlando Cepeda) were in their last year of eligibility and had to wait for the VC to put them in.

Actually, Bunning made 70% in his 11th year of eligibility. In his 12th year he made it to 74.2%. In his 13th year . . . Fergie Jenkins, Gaylord Perry, and Jim Kaat entered the ballot. Then Jim Palmer showed up the next year. He flopped around 57-63% in his last few tries before going to the VC.

3. Repoz

Posted: December 27, 2008 at 07:04 AM (#3038801)

12 Mark Grace

I have him on no ballots so far.

4. Roy Hobbs of WIFFLE Ball Posted: December 27, 2008 at 08:26 AM (#3038805)

I don't think Grace will get 5%. And I'd be surprised if Orosco, Bell, G. Vaughn, Gant, and Plesac combine for more than a handful of votes.

5. jwb Posted: December 27, 2008 at 10:39 AM (#3038814)

Last year was a perfect example, with slugger Mark McGwire appearing on the ballot for the first time. My methodology predicited he'd get around 50% of the votes, but he ended up with 24%. This was due largely to the allegations of steroid use, and his disastrous appearance before a congressional committee investigating the subject. While we're aware of these subjective influences, it's very difficult to measure them.

You just did. N=1, -50%. I expect Palmeiro to do worse because he has the hypocrisy factor working against hims as well as the PED factor.

Grace was a go-to guy for quotes and clubhouse scuttlebutt. He'll do well this year as the writers repay their debt to him and then fade.

6. Swoboda is freedom Posted: December 28, 2008 at 01:43 AM (#3039009)

He's probably high on McGwire as well.

Tony Gwynn and McGwire still a-gettin higher in L.A.,
You know where that's at.

And no one's gettin fat, except Tony Gwynn.

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Saturday, December 27, 2008

In Lahman’s Terms: Predicting the HOF Vote

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