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Thursday, November 15, 2018

Indians’ Trevor Bauer pleads his own Cy Young case using a spreadsheet on Twitter

The winners of the 2018 Cy Young award were revealed on Wednesday night, with Jacob deGrom of the Mets taking the NL side and Blake Snell of the Rays getting AL honors. Trevor Bauer of the Indians finished sixth in the AL, garnering one third-place vote, three fourth-place and four fifth-place.

Bauer didn’t appreciate how the vote went down.

Bauer listed a bunch of stats, and how he compared to Snell - with the obvious intent of showing how Snell wasn’t really any better than him.

1.  I’m not sure why he decided to use some of these stats (GB%, for instance) or why he ranked them the way he did (GB%, for instance - he has the lower GB% as the “winner”, but I thought GB were preferable to LD or FB).
2.  Regardless, I used his stats to rank each of the 7 SP who got votes*.  Using his stats and criteria, he ends up 6th (83.5 points), just a hair’s breath behind winner Snell (81).  He may have a complaint vis-a-vis Snell (again, using only his criteria), but his overall ranking is about right.
3.  In fact, Bauer really pales when you compare him to the other votegetters, winning only HR/9. (Snell was 1st overall in 4 different categories, but is killed because of his walk total - last in all 3 that include BB).
3.  You know who got jobbed?  Chris Sale.  Of 18 stats, he finished 1 or 2 in 14 of them, running away with the total (40.5 vs. 49 for Verlander and 69.5 for Cole). 

*1 pt for 1st, 7 pts for worst

TDF, trained monkey Posted: November 15, 2018 at 04:02 PM | 30 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cy young award

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   1. Rally Posted: November 15, 2018 at 07:42 PM (#5788181)
There are those who actually play the game, those who can’t get their nose out of the spreadsheet, and then there’s Trevor Bauer.
   2. puck Posted: November 15, 2018 at 08:03 PM (#5788189)
Wow, 12 unearned runs to 43 earned runs. That must be one of the higher ratios in recent years.
   3. PreservedFish Posted: November 15, 2018 at 08:57 PM (#5788207)
What a jerk
   4. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 15, 2018 at 09:02 PM (#5788209)
What a jerk

In all ways. And a postseason stiff to boot.
   5. Endless Trash Posted: November 16, 2018 at 12:00 AM (#5788304)
Black Friday is coming up. Maybe you guys can buy a sense of humour.
   6. Endless Trash Posted: November 16, 2018 at 12:10 AM (#5788312)
Black Friday is coming up. Maybe you guys can buy a sense of humour.
   7. JustMe Posted: November 16, 2018 at 04:24 AM (#5788328)
Amazing how favorably he looks when he gets to choose which stats to include. Surely no one would hide behind a curtain of "objectivity" to try to pretend their opinion is fact.

How was his ranking in terms of strength of schedule? Seems like an important detail to include if someone pitched against a historically weak division and being compared to someone in a fairly strong division historically.
   8. The Duke Posted: November 16, 2018 at 06:39 AM (#5788331)
Seems like the time to post that would be after the last game of the season. Still, gotta love the competitiveness. Nothing wrong with telling your story
   9. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 16, 2018 at 08:39 AM (#5788335)

Wow, 12 unearned runs to 43 earned runs. That must be one of the higher ratios in recent years.

Who are you talking about? Bauer only allowed 8 UER.
   10. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 16, 2018 at 08:52 AM (#5788338)

The primary argument for Bauer over Snell would be a lower FIP. However, if you're looking at FIP, you'd probably give the award to Verlander over Bauer, but it's close (Verlander effectively threw 39.1 more innings at a 4.30 FIP, which I assume is better than replacement level).

And if you're willing to look at FIP and disregard Bauer's low IP total, then why not Sale? Bauer effectively threw 17.1 more innings than Sale, at a 6.63 FIP. (Verlander threw 56.2 more IP than Sale at a 5.01 FIP.)
   11. bobm Posted: November 16, 2018 at 10:05 AM (#5788354)
[9] For Single Seasons, For 2018, (requiring ER<=.8*R and At least 60% games started), sorted by greatest Earned Runs

                                                 
Rk             Player ER  R Year Age  Tm Lg  G GS
1    Garrett Richards 31 43 2018  30 LAA AL 16 16
2        Hyun-Jin Ryu 18 23 2018  31 LAD NL 15 15
3       Chris Bassitt 16 21 2018  29 OAK AL 11  7
4         Mike Soroka 10 14 2018  20 ATL NL  5  5
5       Ranger Suarez  9 14 2018  22 PHI NL  4  3
6           John Lamb  8 10 2018  27 LAA AL  3  3
7       Chase De Jong  7  9 2018  24 MIN AL  4  4
8          Alex Reyes  0  0 2018  23 STL NL  1  1


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/16/2018.
   12. bobm Posted: November 16, 2018 at 10:10 AM (#5788359)
For Single Seasons, From 1961 to 2018, (requiring ER<=.7*R, At least 60% games started and At least 10 Games), sorted by greatest Earned Runs

                                                                      
Rk            Player ER   R  G Year Age  Tm Lg GS    IP  ERA  FIP ERA+
1           Jim Kaat 83 121 45 1965  26 MIN AL 42 264.1 2.83 3.35  126
2       Sam McDowell 54  78 38 1968  25 CLE AL 37 269.0 1.81 2.25  165
3        Randy Jones 32  48 13 1981  31 NYM NL 12  59.1 4.85 5.85   72
4      Bartolo Colon 29  42 12 2009  36 CHW AL 12  62.1 4.19 5.70  113
5       John Dettmer 26  42 11 1994  24 TEX AL  9  54.0 4.33 5.82  112
6         David Huff 23  35 11 2011  26 CLE AL 10  50.2 4.09 4.15   97
7    Horacio Ramirez 16  24 10 2004  24 ATL NL  9  60.1 2.39 5.02  180


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/16/2018.
   13. bobm Posted: November 16, 2018 at 10:16 AM (#5788362)
For Single Seasons, From 1999 to 2018, (requiring GS>=16, ER<=.8*R and At least 60% games started), sorted by smallest Fielding Independent Pitching


                                                                    
Rk             Player  FIP GS  ER   R Year  Tm Lg  G    IP  ERA ERA+
1          Jon Lester 2.80 32  60  76 2014 TOT AL 32 219.2 2.46  158
2     Felix Hernandez 3.04 34  63  80 2010 SEA AL 34 249.2 2.27  174
3        Jaime Garcia 3.23 32  77 100 2011 STL NL 32 194.2 3.56  104
4         Blake Snell 3.39 19  35  44 2016 TBR AL 19  89.0 3.54  113
5        Jaime Garcia 3.41 28  49  64 2010 STL NL 28 163.1 2.70  143
6        Johnny Cueto 3.45 24  40  51 2011 CIN NL 24 156.0 2.31  171
7          Jesse Hahn 3.51 16  36  46 2015 OAK AL 16  96.2 3.35  117
8      Jhoulys Chacin 3.55 21  50  64 2010 COL NL 28 137.1 3.28  142
9       Steven Wright 3.77 24  58  74 2016 BOS AL 24 156.2 3.33  134
10          Al Leiter 3.87 33  79  99 2002 NYM NL 33 204.1 3.48  115
11     Dustin Moseley 3.99 20  44  59 2011 SDP NL 20 120.0 3.30  108
12   Garrett Richards 4.13 16  31  43 2018 LAA AL 16  76.1 3.66  114
13         Derek Lowe 4.16 35  89 113 2005 LAD NL 35 222.0 3.61  114
14    Zach McAllister 4.24 22  59  78 2012 CLE AL 22 125.1 4.24   92
15         Derek Lowe 4.26 33 110 138 2004 BOS AL 33 182.2 5.42   89
16         Matt Garza 4.33 19  51  67 2016 MIL NL 19 101.2 4.51   94
17       Oliver Perez 4.35 29  70  90 2007 NYM NL 29 177.0 3.56  121
18       Brandon Webb 4.41 35  83 111 2004 ARI NL 35 208.0 3.59  128
19      Chris Reitsma 4.43 21  56  73 2002 CIN NL 32 138.1 3.64  118
20     Brian Anderson 4.64 31  83 110 2003 TOT AL 32 197.2 3.78  120
21       Mike Thurman 4.69 27  66  84 1999 MON NL 29 146.2 4.05  111
22         Andy Benes 4.71 17  30  39 2002 STL NL 18  97.0 2.78  144
23      Tim Wakefield 4.99 23  88 110 2011 BOS AL 33 154.2 5.12   84


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/16/2018.
   14. rconn23 Posted: November 16, 2018 at 12:28 PM (#5788445)
This guy will be a future member of the Red Sox. Book it.
   15. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 16, 2018 at 02:11 PM (#5788513)
Bauer seems like one of those guys who understands something just enough to misuse it.
   16. Zonk Can't Hide his Disdain or Disgust Posted: November 16, 2018 at 02:36 PM (#5788527)
It's a good thing the Most Congenial Player ballot deadline has already passed.
   17. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: November 16, 2018 at 03:50 PM (#5788572)
And that's when I realized: Nerds have ruined baseball.
   18. Red Voodooin Posted: November 16, 2018 at 03:58 PM (#5788578)
I like Trevor Bauer. He's different. Certainly don't understand why he would be considered a 'jerk in all ways'. He's a weirdo, perhaps. But again, that's not a bad thing.
   19. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: November 16, 2018 at 04:01 PM (#5788581)
I have gone from Bauer is a weirdo to Bauer is a jerk based on a few past incidents. That said, I like having weirdos in baseball.
   20. Leroy Kincaid Posted: November 16, 2018 at 05:29 PM (#5788618)
Is he the one that plays with remote-control flying toys?
   21. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: November 16, 2018 at 06:21 PM (#5788632)
He took a lot of heat for openly accusing the Astros of doctoring the baseball and maybe he shouldn't have done it but I'm not convinced he was wrong.
   22. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: November 16, 2018 at 06:27 PM (#5788636)
Yes, Leroy.

I think he was right too, charityslave - don’t begrudge him either of those 2 incidents...
   23. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 16, 2018 at 07:36 PM (#5788649)
I like Trevor Bauer. He's different. Certainly don't understand why he would be considered a 'jerk in all ways'.

Well, here's one way.
   24. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 16, 2018 at 08:01 PM (#5788654)
If the best of MLB SP like Scherzer, Sale, Kershaw, Bauer etc. were transported back to being 10 years old(and maybe back to the 70s where political correctness doesn't rule the roost), does 10 year Scherzer just beat the cr@p out of 10 year old Bauer for being a dweeb/doufus?
   25. Leroy Kincaid Posted: November 17, 2018 at 10:51 AM (#5788755)
Yes, Leroy.


Thanks. I'd say he's annoying. Some of the reaction I saw to his tweets were a bit much. Angry-ing up their blood for no good reason.
   26. Brian Posted: November 17, 2018 at 02:36 PM (#5788817)
Andy leads the league in injecting politics into baseball threads. Is this going to get worse with OTP threads shutting down?
   27. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 17, 2018 at 11:48 PM (#5788944)
I made one link in response to a question. You had to click on the link to figure it out the reason I was referring to, and that reason is but one of many. Bauer's just an overall creep, and not just because of the reason I linked to. I'm not taking it any further than that. If people are allowed to dislike (for instance) Manny Machado for subjective reasons that seem to have to do with his alleged character flaws, I'm allowed my opinion of Bauer for whatever reasons I choose.
   28. base ball chick Posted: November 18, 2018 at 03:48 PM (#5789015)
the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 16, 2018 at 08:01 PM (#5788654)

If the best of MLB SP like Scherzer, Sale, Kershaw, Bauer etc. were transported back to being 10 years old(and maybe back to the 70s where political correctness doesn't rule the roost), does 10 year Scherzer just beat the cr@p out of 10 year old Bauer for being a dweeb/doufus

- well, who knows

first, who knows whether or not one was significantly larger/stronger/more aggressive than the other

second, and most important, it ain't the size of the Dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the Dog (well, to some extent - i mean, mrs brett myers and mrs addison russell couldn't hold their own against their husbands) - or is it politically incorrect to mention that

but speaking of fights with unequal sizes, the worst fight i ever saw without weapons was between a couple of females at school - broken bones, blood and the smaller female was the winner. sometimes larger people get too over confident
   29. base ball chick Posted: November 18, 2018 at 04:05 PM (#5789020)
Brian Posted: November 17, 2018 at 02:36 PM (#5788817)

Andy leads the league in injecting politics into baseball threads. Is this going to get worse with OTP threads shutting down


- well, there WAS a question of why is bauer a jerk
and that is the answer

or would you just prefer that andy writes that bauer says to someone on twitter who disagrees with something he said that "the world would be a better place if you died" without a link
   30. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 18, 2018 at 04:12 PM (#5789023)

No idea what Scherzer was like as a kid but he seems reasonably intellectual / sensitive now. He had a younger brother who was statistically oriented but also suffered from depression (and unfortunately committed suicide in 2012).

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