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Thursday, September 21, 2017

Inside Baseball AL Notes | Young Yankees Re-Writing Record Books

Heyman’s latest. You can find the NL Notes here.

Jim Furtado Posted: September 21, 2017 at 11:33 AM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: notes

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   1. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 21, 2017 at 12:16 PM (#5535887)
Judge became the third rookie in MLB history to have 100 RBIs, runs and walks, joining Al Rosen in 1950 and Ted Williams in 1939, courtesy of YES Network.

Gary Sanchez set the Yankees record for home runs by a catcher with his 31st, breaking a tie with Yogi Berra and Jorge Posada.

And Didi Gregorius topped the iconic Derek Jeter as the all-time single-season home run leader for Yankees shortstops with 25.

Jacoby Ellsbury has a .526 on-base percentage in September (and it would be even higher if catcher’s interference counted in one’s favor for OBP). The theory advanced here that his concussion was adversely affecting his play appears to have merit . . .

Worth mentioning that the achievements by Sanchez & Gregorius came with both missing a month due to injury.

Ellsbury has looked good lately. I wonder what the trade market would be if the Yankees paid about two-thirds of his remaining salary? The outfield will be awfully crowded next season if someone isn't moved, although going with a DH rotation could provide a partial solution, with more ABs available if the Yanks don't land Otani.
   2. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: September 21, 2017 at 01:14 PM (#5535955)
Ellsbury has looked good lately. I wonder what the trade market would be if the Yankees paid about two-thirds of his remaining salary? The outfield will be awfully crowded next season if someone isn't moved, although going with a DH rotation could provide a partial solution, with more ABs available if the Yanks don't land Otani.


I imagine if they pay that much of his salary they could move him for something.

Is it really worth it though? Ellsbury doesn't seem like the prototypical pro's pro but he seems to have handled reduced playing time as well as you can and I'd rather pay him $22 million to get 350 PA for me than $14 million to get 500 PA for someone else. Am I missing someone here?

Judge-Hicks-Gardner-Frazier is the current outfield for next year. There is a lot of uncertainty in there I think once you get past Judge. I'm high on Frazier but he hasn't really done it yet, Hicks, is he for real and Gardner (like Ellsbury) will be 34.

That's a long way of saying if I were the Yankees I wouldn't just punt him. If they can get something for him they should do it but he is worth keeping around. Maybe get him a first baseman's mitt and see what happens? What's up with Holliday? Is the four guys I listed really three outfielders and a DH?
   3. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: September 21, 2017 at 01:22 PM (#5535967)
I think it's unlikely Holliday is coming back, it's too bad, he was having a nice season until he got waylaid by the Epstein-Barr virus.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 21, 2017 at 01:57 PM (#5536013)
Judge-Hicks-Gardner-Frazier is the current outfield for next year. There is a lot of uncertainty in there I think once you get past Judge.

Gardner is about as consistent a player as you're going to find. Last 5 years bWAR: 4.4, 4.0, 3.4, 3.4, 4.4.

I think there's way more uncertainty with Judge. He could be a 3 WAR player, he could be a 7 WAR player.

Hicks and Frazier, I'm with you. Who knows what you're going to get?

I can totally see keeping Ellsbury, and keeping the DH spot clear so 4 of your OFs play every day.
   5. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 21, 2017 at 01:58 PM (#5536014)
Is it really worth it though? Ellsbury doesn't seem like the prototypical pro's pro but he seems to have handled reduced playing time as well as you can and I'd rather pay him $22 million to get 350 PA for me than $14 million to get 500 PA for someone else. Am I missing someone here?

Ellsbury's apparent inability to stay healthy, or play through injuries, does limit his value, and his skill set overlaps considerably with Brett Gardner. He's not a bad guy to have around, but it's a lot of money for someone who may be behind Judge, Hicks, Gardner & Frazier on next season's depth chart, with Jake Cave and others likely emerging before Ellsbury's contract ends after 2020. Saving some of Ellsbury's salary would also make it easier to get under the luxury tax threshold, although at the moment that goal looks to be within reach without such a move.

It may be hard to find a trading partner that lines up with the Yankees needs. Starting pitching could be a bit thin next season, although Otani might address that, too, and not many teams seem to want to part with quality pitching assets. A trade seems worth exploring, but I'd agree that nothing may come of it.
   6. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: September 21, 2017 at 02:08 PM (#5536028)
Gardner is about as consistent a player as you're going to find. Last 5 years bWAR: 4.4, 4.0, 3.4, 3.4, 4.4.


Agreed but he's going to be 34 and as we know players can decline quickly at that age. It may be declined performance and it may be injury. But you're right, he's been pretty steady.

Jake Cave and others likely emerging before Ellsbury's contract ends after 2020. Saving some of Ellsbury's salary would also make it easier to get under the luxury tax threshold, although at the moment that goal looks to be within reach without such a move.


Thanks, I meant to ask what else they had in the minors for outfield depth. I think that 2/3rds of his salary you referenced is a lot. If I'm paying that much I'd keep him. If it was half...yeah I'd be inclined to move him.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 21, 2017 at 02:45 PM (#5536071)
Thanks, I meant to ask what else they had in the minors for outfield depth. I think that 2/3rds of his salary you referenced is a lot. If I'm paying that much I'd keep him. If it was half...yeah I'd be inclined to move him.

Ellsbury still hasn't put up less than 2 WAR for the Yankees. So far this year he's a 2.0 WAR in 378 PA, which is pretty damn good. That's worth $12-15M p.a., if not the $21M they have to pay him.

I think you need someone to take at least half his contract, or else give you something good back, in order to trade. If you're only saving $8M p.a., you can do better by simply not signing anyone to replace Holldiay.

Judge/Gardner/Ellsbury/Hicks/Frazier for 3 OF spots and the DH is a solid setup. Especially given the fragility of Ellsbury and Hicks.

   8. Walt Davis Posted: September 21, 2017 at 05:18 PM (#5536187)
Yeah, trading Ellsbury seems like a solution looking for a problem unless there's a really good full-time DH out there that I'm not thinking of. But if you just want to save some money and don't want much back (ain't much left), I can see where the Cubs might go for that, put him in the Jon Jay role. (Cubs have bigger needs but ...)
   9. TheHomeRunsOfJuanPierre Posted: September 22, 2017 at 02:08 PM (#5536928)
Always appreciated you being impartial, Walt Davis.

   10. Walt Davis Posted: September 23, 2017 at 06:45 PM (#5537469)
I am always happy to advocate for trades in the Cubs' favor. If the Yanks would like to throw Gleyber Torres into that deal to convince the Cubs to take on more of Ellsbury's salary, I won't complain. :-) A Judge for Heyward swap also makes lots of sense for the Yanks.

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