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Monday, June 29, 2009

Interesting article about the steal of home

This is a nice little two-page story about the steal of home. The author calls it the “most exciting play in baseball” - I think the triple is right up there.

Yet this season there have been four straight steals of home and amazingly, it happened twice on Sunday: Getz did it on a combined botched suicide squeeze and wild pitch that was ruled a stolen base against the Cubs, and Matthews Jr. swiped home on a straight steal against the Diamondbacks after getting the green light from manager Mike Scioscia. “I figured I could give it a shot,” said Matthews Jr.

Trying it is one thing. Pulling it off, as Ellsbury can attest, is something else. “You have to know you’re going to make it,” he says. “I knew. It was something I’ll never forget.”

TVerik Posted: June 29, 2009 at 05:07 PM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. J.C. Bradbury Posted: June 29, 2009 at 05:30 PM (#3236704)

That's quite an immodest article title.

2. TVerik Posted: June 29, 2009 at 05:35 PM (#3236710)

THE GREATEST ARTICLE EVER ABOUT THE GREATEST PLAY IN BASEBALL!!!!!

3. The District Attorney Posted: June 29, 2009 at 05:38 PM (#3236712)

The Most Interesting Article in the World.

4. Jeff K. Posted: June 29, 2009 at 05:47 PM (#3236725)

Look at the dude's name. I don't think we have to let our minds wander terribly far as to wondering where he got his creativeness from.

5. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: June 29, 2009 at 05:53 PM (#3236732)

The steal of home is so much greater than the triple. Everything about it is the awesome.

6. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 29, 2009 at 05:56 PM (#3236740)

Yet this season there have been four straight steals of home and amazingly, it happened twice on Sunday

I wouldn't call a "botched suicide squeeze and wild pitch" a straight steal of home.

7. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: June 29, 2009 at 05:56 PM (#3236741)

The steal of home is so much greater than the triple. Everything about it is the awesome.

Except for the fact that if you're watching on television, you often don't know it's happened until the guy has crossed home plate. You never get to see the vast majority of the play live, which dilutes its awesomeness factor.

8. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: June 29, 2009 at 05:59 PM (#3236746)

The utter surprise to the viewer at home is another facet of awesomeness, requiring the viewer to study the replay like the zapruder film.

9. TVerik Posted: June 29, 2009 at 06:04 PM (#3236751)

A big, bases-clearing triple in a huge spot is pretty damned cool, particularly if the tripleness puts a runner on third with less than two outs.

Inside-the-park homers are great too. I guess ITP grand slams are particularly special, but I don't think I've seen one.

10. Obama Bomaye Posted: June 29, 2009 at 06:12 PM (#3236765)

I saw Glenn Hubbard (or maybe Ken Oberkfell) hit an ITP grand slam in a spring training game in Vero Beach c. 1985.

11. Young Blasarius yonder Posted: June 29, 2009 at 06:15 PM (#3236771)

Never caught a foul ball, never seen a no-hitter live, never seen any career milestone in person. Hell, I even missed seeing the Angels finally win the WS back in '02. So my all-time favorite feat I've actually witnessed at a game would have to be when Devon White stole 2nd, 3rd and home in the same inning. Devo was awesome. I was pissed when they traded him for Jr. Felix and Luis Freaking Sojo.

12. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: June 29, 2009 at 06:50 PM (#3236835)

The most exciting play in baseball is whatever the Angels are currently doing in front of the faces of Physioc and Hudler.

13. Shredder Posted: June 29, 2009 at 07:12 PM (#3236872)

Orlando Cabrera stole home against Chad Billingsley a couple years ago. Any time a pitcher is working from the windup with a runner on third, you have to think about it. Billingsley was so dreadfully slow to the plate that Cabrera crossed the plate before Billingsley ever threw the pitch. Aside from a situation like Getz had yesterday, I'm assuming there haven't been a lot of straight steals in which the runner crossed the plate standing up.

14. SteveF Posted: June 29, 2009 at 07:17 PM (#3236882)

Pretty much has to be a left-handed pitcher too doesn't it?

If 90% of the population were left-handed instead, you'd probably have more steals of home. That or 1st base and 3rd base would be swapped.

15. AROM Posted: June 29, 2009 at 07:31 PM (#3236899)

Pretty much has to be a left-handed pitcher too doesn't it?

Not yesterday.

With two out, and runner on 3B only, the break-even percentage is not that high to justify the attempt. Something in the range of 30-35%.

It's pretty much the odds of a WP/PB, or the batter getting a hit, reaching on an error. And throw in the chance that the batter takes a walk combined with a later run scoring event. Whatever that total is, if you think your chances of stealing home beat it, then run.

16. Shredder Posted: June 29, 2009 at 07:31 PM (#3236900)

Pretty much has to be a left-handed pitcher too doesn't it?

Nope. Not if he's going from the windup. Scherzer, who was pitching against the Angels yesterady, is right handed. Billingsley is right handed. Once a pitcher moves that left foot, he can't really do anything. He either continues through the windup, or he balks.

17. AROM Posted: June 29, 2009 at 07:34 PM (#3236907)

“You have to know you’re going to make it,” he says. “I knew. It was something I’ll never forget.”

Methinks Ellsbury is a bit too conservative in thinking here. You don't need a near 100% chance before you go. At the 2008 BTF meetup in Camden Yards (the Manny 500HR game), Ellsbury was on third with Ortiz up and two out. Orioles were playing the shift.

Mora was playing at least halfway to second, so Ellsbury could have taken a 45 lead and simply need to outrace Mora to get back on a pickoff play. With a 45 foot lead, he could have walked home. But he didn't run that time.

18. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: June 29, 2009 at 07:41 PM (#3236917)

As a rookie, its hard to justify attempting to steal home with the greatest clutch player in the history of sport at the plate.

19. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: June 29, 2009 at 08:21 PM (#3236968)

Carl Crawford easily stole home a couple of years ago when Jason Johnson went into the full windup. And it wasn't close at all.

20. Dave Spiwak Posted: June 30, 2009 at 05:43 AM (#3237503)

All this glorying in successful steals of home has me wondering -- when was the last time a guy was thrown out stealing home?

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Interesting article about the steal of home

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