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Monday, September 20, 2010

Is Austin Jackson Getting Alot Of Infield Singles And Are They Partly Responsible For His High BABIP

DANGER: Safety squibs in use. Morong with his latest.

It would be the highest since 1924. Jackson has a .161 AVG on balls in the infield according to Baseball Reference. But the league average is just .080. If we take half of his infield hits away, say 15, he then would be 16 for 191 on infield balls. That would lower his BABIP from 164/398 = .412 to 149/398 = .374. Still very high, but maybe not as historic.

He is fast with 10 3Bs this year as a RHB while stealing 24 with only 5 caught stealing. Maybe he beats out more grounders than average.

His average on hits to the outfield is .649 while the league average is .545. So he is above average here but not relatively as much as as in the infield. His GB/FB ratio is just about 2.22-1 while for the league it is about 1.23-1. Line drives are 27.3% of his non-bunt ABs while for the league it is 19.1%. His AVG on line drives is just about the league average, .722 vs. .725. So if you hit alot more line drives and you are fast, maybe you get a high BABIP. He strikes out 25.7% of the time while the league average is 17.5%. Maybe he just swings real hard, too.

Repoz Posted: September 20, 2010 at 12:25 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, projections, sabermetrics, tigers

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   1. Dan Szymborski Posted: September 20, 2010 at 01:04 PM (#3644113)
ZiPS has a preliminary 2011 projection for Jackson of 275/334/375 (89 OPS+).
   2. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: September 20, 2010 at 01:21 PM (#3644119)
Interesting how that preliminary ZiPS looks an awful lot like the .281/.337/.384 he's put up since his outrageously hot first month (4/5 - 5/3: .377/.427/.526; .532 BABIP).
   3. gef, more dangerous than a monkey w/ a razor blade Posted: September 20, 2010 at 01:32 PM (#3644129)
*sigh*

That utterly illiterate use of "alot" should call for ... OK, maybe not the death penalty, but certainly a good thrashing.
   4. SJC in A2 Posted: September 20, 2010 at 01:35 PM (#3644134)
Anecdotally -- he does swing hard and hit a lot of line drives up the middle -- but not many HR's for such a front leg kick and hard swing. Leyland's only complaint is that he doesn't get out of the box fast enough and should get more infield hits. He does seem fastest from first to third (and back and forth in CF where's he's had to cover a lot of ground in Comerica with some slow RF's and LF's) and not from home to first. Given the ups and downs of Boesch and Sizemore this year, I'm happy with the way he's played since his fast start.
   5. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: September 20, 2010 at 01:53 PM (#3644145)
Interesting how that preliminary ZiPS looks an awful lot like the .281/.337/.384 he's put up since his outrageously hot first month (4/5 - 5/3: .377/.427/.526; .532 BABIP).

But then...if we split the data as Pre and Post ASB we get .300/.354/403 and .299/.358/.422.
   6. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: September 20, 2010 at 02:07 PM (#3644164)
[4] Of course, it is kinda tough to get out of the RH batter's box real fast when you swing real hard.

[5] So? I wasn't suggesting that the kid sucks or anything. But his season numbers are propped up by a hot month, just as another player's might be dragged down by a bad one. I'd gladly take a 90 OPS+ projection for a 24 year-old who plays solid defense at a premium position, especially since his youth and athleticism give reason to hope that he might, you know, get better. But I'm not going to bank on anybody having a month of >.500 BABIP every year.
   7. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: September 20, 2010 at 02:16 PM (#3644173)
[6] "But his season numbers are propped up by a hot [April]"

And yet his post ASB numbers are better than his numbers pre ASB.
   8. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: September 20, 2010 at 02:29 PM (#3644188)
[7] I'm still not sure what your point is. My argument about not wanting to bank on a month like his April every season would be the same if his April had been August. It's an outlier compared to either his first or his second half.
   9. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: September 20, 2010 at 02:31 PM (#3644194)
But his season numbers are propped up by a hot month, just as another player's might be dragged down by a bad one.
Such as Jackson's June. NJ is right -- you can't just take out one month and ignore it.
   10. Blackadder Posted: September 20, 2010 at 02:39 PM (#3644202)
That utterly illiterate use of "alot" should call for ... OK, maybe not the death penalty, but certainly a good thrashing.


You, sir, are worse than Hitler.
   11. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: September 20, 2010 at 02:45 PM (#3644208)
You, sir, are worse than Hitler.

He's alot worse than Hitler.
   12. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 20, 2010 at 02:51 PM (#3644216)
I could care less if he's alot worse than Hitler.
   13. Arva Posted: September 20, 2010 at 02:58 PM (#3644225)
All right, no "alot" vs "a lot" thread should go on without this link.

http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com/2010/04/alot-is-better-than-you-at-everything.html
   14. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: September 20, 2010 at 02:58 PM (#3644227)
ZiPS has a preliminary 2011 projection for Jackson of 275/334/375 (89 OPS+).


ouch

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