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Saturday, June 02, 2018

Is Brandon Nimmo an All-Star?

Through the first third of the season, the left-handed batter has earned himself a .294 batting average, and a more-than-respectable OPS of 1.033. These numbers are even more impressive when you consider that Nimmo did not have a ton of playing time throughout the first third of the season.

Nimmo started 2018 as a bench player behind Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Lagares (who was keeping center field warm for an injured Michael Conforto), and Jay Bruce. Nimmo would see some time in center as Lagares was more of a defensive player, while Nimmo himself was more known for his on-base presence but starts were scarce for the Wyoming native.

When Nimmo did start for manager Mickey Callaway, all he did was find a way to get himself on base. Early in the season, Nimmo was all about getting deep into counts. He was using his patience more than his power to help out his ball club, and it was working.

Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: June 02, 2018 at 01:30 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brandon nimmo, mets

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   1. Baldrick Posted: June 02, 2018 at 01:42 PM (#5684530)
Through the first third of the season, the left-handed batter has earned himself a .294 batting average, and a more-than-respectable OPS of 1.033. These numbers are even more impressive when you consider that Nimmo did not have a ton of playing time throughout the first third of the season.

A smaller sample size makes outlier rate stats LESS impressive, but okay.

   2. Howie Menckel Posted: June 02, 2018 at 01:51 PM (#5684535)
No
   3. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: June 02, 2018 at 01:51 PM (#5684536)
Ian Betteridge says NO.
   4. Adam Starblind Posted: June 02, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5684541)

A smaller sample size makes outlier rate stats LESS impressive, but okay.


Yes, but given his background and track record, it's conceivable that he is some semblance of this player. First round draft pick who's always flashed a high walk rate. Always projected to add power. He cut down on what started as an appalling strikeout rate and has that number nicely under control now. Took a while before his overall skills as a hitter rounded into shape, but he was drafted out of legion ball in Wyoming where they do not have high school baseball. Lefties own him, but his stats include a reasonable number of at bats against them.

I'm not projecting him to put up MVP numbers like this (they are more than all star numbers, but the sample is too small), but I'd bet on him being a very good player going forward.
   5. PreservedFish Posted: June 02, 2018 at 02:35 PM (#5684552)
I'd bet on him being a good enough starter but I'm not asking for anything else. We know he can take a walk, but we also know it's quite likely that his average dips down south of .250 much of the time. The power is the real question. He was drafted as a 5-tool guy, and he is a good athlete, but power development will really be the critical factor I think.
   6. Elvis Posted: June 02, 2018 at 03:02 PM (#5684564)
Nimmo has 149 PA which is not enough to qualify for the FanGraphs leaderboards. But if we set the minimum to 120 PA, here's where Nimmo ranks among NL Outfielders:

wRC+ - First (185)
wOBA - First (.438)
WAR - T. Second (2.1)

He's fewer than 20 PA from qualifying and will likely be there by the end of June, when All-Star decisions are made. Of course, he may very well run into what Jacob deGrom has the past two seasons - being passed over in part because of the need to take someone from every team. It certainly feels like deGrom will make the team this year and Asdrubal Cabrera's got a case, too. It's hard to imagine three guys from the Mets will make the team this year and even two might be a stretch.

Finally, Nimmo has 36 PA this year against LHP and just a .660 OPS versus southpaws. But he was only facing them sporadically early on and results have been better lately now that he's playing against them on a regular basis

1st 12 PA -- .000/.250/.000
Last 24 PA - .273/.333/.500
   7. cardsfanboy Posted: June 02, 2018 at 03:48 PM (#5684571)
Nimmo has 149 PA which is not enough to qualify for the FanGraphs leaderboards. But if we set the minimum to 120 PA, here's where Nimmo ranks among NL Outfielders:

wRC+ - First (185)
wOBA - First (.438)
WAR - T. Second (2.1)

He's fewer than 20 PA from qualifying and will likely be there by the end of June, when All-Star decisions are made. Of course, he may very well run into what Jacob deGrom has the past two seasons - being passed over in part because of the need to take someone from every team. It certainly feels like deGrom will make the team this year and Asdrubal Cabrera's got a case, too. It's hard to imagine three guys from the Mets will make the team this year and even two might be a stretch.


And if he maintains that rate when he reaches qualifying point, he might have an argument to make to be an all-star, but we are talking he'll have to reach about 215 pa before he will qualify, So we are talking about another 14-17 games from now before he qualifies.
   8. Adam Starblind Posted: June 02, 2018 at 03:57 PM (#5684573)

And if he maintains that rate when he reaches qualifying point, he might have an argument to make to be an all-star, but we are talking he'll have to reach about 215 pa before he will qualify, So we are talking about another 14-17 games from now before he qualifies.


I don't think Elvis was saying "an therefore he's an all star."
   9. Walt Davis Posted: June 02, 2018 at 06:15 PM (#5684614)
What next? Romine an All-Star? :-)

He's had an excellent run (did somebody say Didi?) but his on-contact numbers are unsustainable -- 407/826 -- not so crazy that he has no chance of carrying it through the season but chances are very good he's well over his head. But for sure, if he can maintain a 250 ISO (currently over 300), he'll be an outstanding player.

First round draft pick

But a #13 pick which does not suggest "pedigree" as we'd really think of it. That was a particularly deep 1st round -- Cole, Bauer, Rendon, Lindor, Baez, Springer before Nimmo ... Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, Wong, Panik, Bradley, Story, Snell after him. And there have been plenty of good #13 picks through the years -- Sale the year before, Aaron Hill, Konerko, Manny, Templeton, Tanana, Gary Nolan. There have been a number of guys who put in a few nice seasons -- Trea Turner already, Khalil Greene, Kotchman, Redman, Osborne, Spiers, Brent Mayne. Still that's about a 1/8 chance of an above-average starter (with a shot at star) and a 1/8 chance of a Rich Becker (8ish WAR) and about another 3/8 (4/8?) chance of at least making the majors.

So his draft pedigree is one of potential to become a starter and even a star but far from expectation. If he puts up a 4-5 WAR season this year, that might be a good indicator that he's reached that potential -- although a quick check of Greene shows seasons of 3.6 and 3.2 WAR; Kotchman 3.8 WAR at 24, 3.6 at 28. But I don't think having been a #13 pick tells us anything useful at this point.
   10. Adam Starblind Posted: June 02, 2018 at 08:42 PM (#5684662)
But I don't think having been a #13 pick tells us anything useful at this point.


Not sure how that follows from anything you just said, but thanks for chiming in!
   11. dejarouehg Posted: June 02, 2018 at 10:53 PM (#5684697)
He's not an all-star yet, but he is very easy to root for.

Always enjoy watching players who seem to love the game and recognize just how fortunate they are.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: June 03, 2018 at 09:22 PM (#5685145)
Not sure how that follows from anything you just said, but thanks for chiming in!

Because he is 25 years old, has over 2500 PA in the minors and chances are there is no predictive value of having been the #13 pick 7 years ago, especially relative to some player with the same minor-league performance. He was never considered a top prospect and the expected outcome of a #13 pick is probably about 3-4 WAR. Even if he completes this as a nice season, there are plenty of similar players who had one nice season then did pretty much nothing else. You made an unsupported claim that his status as a former #13 pick should provide us with more confidence in his recent performance levels. I pointed out how unlikely such a thing is.

Just how much evidence do you want to counter your unsupported claim that his pedigree as a #13 pick tells us something useful. To date, Nimmo has done nothing to convince that he's better than a typical #13 pick. Based on the history of #13 picks, there's no reason to expect a typical #13 pick to be a consistent ML-quality performer.

I always love this. You provided no support for your claim that what teams thought of a player's potential 7 years ago has any bearing on their projected performance in the current year and beyond. I provide evidence that, even at the time, what that told us was that he was very unlikely to be of real value and I'm the one not contributing useful information. I even considered the conditional outcome of whether that pedigree and one good season told us very much and, other than telling us he had that one good season, no it really doesn't.

Or to put it another way, ZiPS RoS is 242/346/399, 102 wRC+ and will end up with about 2.5 WAR (Steamer is a bit worse on wRC+, bit better on WAR). That pretty well constitutes what we know "given his background and track record." Now granted, you did a fine job on weasel words (as I often do as well) in saying that it's "conceivable" that he is "some semblance" of this player. Given that's pretty much an impossible claim to refute -- does a 10% chance of a 125 wRC+ represent a "concept" of "some semblance" to a 174 wRC+? -- I suppose I should give up.

To be fair, it would be better to look at, say, #11-15 picks or other range, not just #13 but somebody else can do that work. Or just simpler to say "given his track record of not hitting for power in the minors, it's very unlikely he'll maintain anything close to this ISO but he'll probably maintain a good walk rate" and leave what happened 7 years ago out of it.
   13. Meatwad Posted: June 04, 2018 at 12:46 AM (#5685283)
Iirc this was the same poster who thought conforto was going to be better than bryant. But I could be wrong.
   14. formerly dp Posted: June 06, 2018 at 11:53 AM (#5686943)
This is an enjoyable discussion (seriously) but: what happens when/if Cespedes comes off the DL? Where do they find the ABs/PT for their best OF? Does Bruce go to the bench or to 1B?
   15. PreservedFish Posted: June 06, 2018 at 12:30 PM (#5686985)
Oh, I assumed this comment was going to be of the "Nimmo is 0-12 since this thread was posted" variety.
   16. formerly dp Posted: June 06, 2018 at 12:44 PM (#5686997)
Oh, I assumed this comment was going to be of the "Nimmo is 0-12 since this thread was posted" variety.
I think Baldrick nailed it in the first comment--totally unrealistic to expect him to keep posting an OPS over 1.000, but an OBP-heavy .800 would make him a really useful player for the Mets, especially since he's the only one on the team remotely adept at stealing bases.
   17. djordan Posted: June 06, 2018 at 01:14 PM (#5687029)
This is an enjoyable discussion (seriously) but: what happens when/if Cespedes comes off the DL? Where do they find the ABs/PT for their best OF? Does Bruce go to the bench or to 1B?


Bruce goes to 1B.
   18. Swoboda is freedom Posted: June 06, 2018 at 02:16 PM (#5687086)
This is an enjoyable discussion (seriously) but: what happens when/if Cespedes comes off the DL? Where do they find the ABs/PT for their best OF? Does Bruce go to the bench or to 1B?

Of course Bruce has the lowest OPS of all the Mets starters, and is the only starter who is hitting worse the Gonzalez (except for the SS Rosario).

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