The excerpt and lead to the article says the answer is "yes," but that is misleading. The article's conclusion is that LeHair will not sustain his current rate of success, but his offense still will be considerably above average as a 1st baseman. It's hard to figure out how much regression to expect for BABIP, HR/Fly, and BB rate. I wouldn't take his minor league BABIP at face value and use it as the regression target. At some point, pitchers will create their book on pitching him, and if he can successfully adjust to that, LeHair may become the late bloomer story.

mike hessman was 30 and hit 34 homers and slugged over .600 for toledo a few years back. where is mike hessman?

kevin witt was 30 and hit 36 homers and almost slugged .600 for durham once upon a time. where is kevin witt?

earl snyder was 28 and hit 36 homers and had 80 extra base hits for pawtucket a while back. where is earl snyder

but bryan lahair is different

okey dokey

welcome back, Harvey

mike hessman was 30 and hit 34 homers and slugged over .600 for toledo a few years back. where is mike hessman?

kevin witt was 30 and hit 36 homers and almost slugged .600 for durham once upon a time. where is kevin witt?

earl snyder was 28 and hit 36 homers and had 80 extra base hits for pawtucket a while back. where is earl snyder

but bryan lahair is different

okey dokey

Mike Hessman MLB stats - .188/.272/.422 in 250 PA

Kevin Witt - .233/.267/.376 in 424 PA

Earl Snyder - .203/.277/.308 in 66 PA

Bryan Lahair - .299/.380/.509 in 322 PA.

It's only .322 PA, but he is different. Or at least his results are. 141 OPS+ to below 80 for all the others.

misir

yeah, you must get the cardsfanboy newsletter where he convinced everyone that ryan ludwick really was a .900 ops player

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/9974/lahair-takes-a-step-outside

LaHair at least appears to be making some adjustments, although that's also a small sample size. Also, while admittedly another very small sample, in May: his K rate is down, his walk rate his up, and his BABIP is at .368. He's at a .515 wOBA and 231 wRC+, both UP a tiny tic from April. He's near the top of the league in pitches/PA. He certainly won't keep all that up, but I think if he remains patient he can be well above average for the year because the power is legit.

a lot of guys have had legit power

making legit contact on a regular basis is a different thing

Oscar Gamble should have been named Bryan LaHair. (And Pete Rose should have been named Oscar Gamble.)

It was fun to hear the ESPN promo for an upcoming game, "Bryan Lahair and the Cubs."

ESPN did have a graphic a couple of days ago that Bryan was the top NL hitter against outside pitches (I don't remember what stat, probably OPS); and Kruk mused that he may now see a lot of inside pitches-I sure hope the other teams didn't hear this and keep pitching him outside.

HW, welcome back old friend!

In appreciation, I'll even keep quiet while you piss on what little joy we Cub fans have had so far this season.

yeah, you must get the cardsfanboy newsletter where he convinced everyone that ryan ludwick really was a .900 ops player

I'm not an Insider, so I can't access the entire article, but judging from post #1, it looks like all Dan is saying is that LaHair will continue to perform well this year and be well above average for his position. That's precisely what Ludwick did in 2008, and precisely what the three you mentioned did not, so I don't get your point (nor your testiness).

yeah, you must get the cardsfanboy newsletter where he convinced everyone that ryan ludwick really was a .900 ops player

And you must have added the part where Misirlou said LaHair's success is sustainable. All of those guys you mentioned had no success against big league pitching in a similar number of at-bats. LaHair has. That doesn't mean he'll go on to great things (Kevin Maas didn't, nor did a number of others who had immediate success). But guys who never hit a lick against MLB pitching aren't a good analog for a guy who has.

I've written a lot about Hessman and LaHair on this site over the years, why not do so again?

Setting major league performance aside for a moment (which we shouldn't do, but bear with me) - LaHair and Hessman were much more interesting "free talents" than Witt (who had two decent minor league seasons around age 30) and Snyder (who rarely looked like more than a solid AAA player statwise).

Hessman had the misfortune of developing late with the bat and in the field. Some of the what appeared to be the former was actually taking advantage of less experienced / marginal minor league pitchers, but even accounting for that it still would have been good enough for him to have been a low average, decent walk, high power, good glove third baseman. Below average, but useful. (say, a .215/.305/.450 ... a variation on, say, a Kevin Kouzmanoff line)

As for LaHair, his Achilles heel has been left handed pitching (minor league splits, from Davenport). If you assumed his numbers versus righties represented something like his true talent level (v. righties) and gave him an average platoon split, well, he'd've been in the bigs a few years ago. Last year, he was finally decent against lefties. Now that he's in the bigs, he doesn't face them as often (not the explanatation for his success, it's helped).
Platoon him (or pray he had what Granderson took) and he's useful.


- Welcome back HW!
- I don't know why people don't focus more on minor league splits. Yes, yes - you should regress observed platoon numbers, but these are obs too.

Kevin Millar was 27 before he picked up his 4th MLB plate appearance. He was a good player for about 6 years.

Mike Easler was 29 when he got his first real shot to hit in MLB. He then gave his teams 7 decent to good years.

Brian Daubach got his first chance at age 27, then hit 20-22 homers and 71-78 RBI the next 4 years.

I'm sure I could think of some others if I spent enough time on it. Plenty of successes and failures among the older, AAAA sluggers who finally get a shot to play.

arom

mike easler was always a good player

there is a distinction between a guy stuck because the organization doesn't know what they have and a guy who seemingly advances at a later age

i am just surprised at folks here of all places putting more emphasis on a very limited data set versus the bulk of lahair's career where only lately have his numbers jumped out at anyone

and i thought iowa was a hitters park hence my deflating his recent performance a bit further

where are the minor league park factors?

i thought i had a link but now i cannot find it

I don't remember the Iowa park factors. But one thing in their favor is they play in the less crazy half of the PCL. And the schedule is unbalanced, so they aren't playing that many road games in places like LV, Salt Lake, Colorado Springs, and Tucson.

I'm sure I could think of some others if I spent enough time on it. Plenty of successes and failures among the older, AAAA sluggers who finally get a shot to play

Casey Blake, Jamey Carroll, Ryan Ludwick, Ron Coomer, Garrett Jones, Melvin Mora, Mike Aviles, and Luke Scott were all late starters.

Also nice to see Kila Kaaihue off to a good start in Oakland.

Mike Hessman MLB stats - .188/.272/.422 in 250 PA

Kevin Witt - .233/.267/.376 in 424 PA

Earl Snyder - .203/.277/.308 in 66 PA

Bryan Lahair - .299/.380/.509 in 322 PA.

It's only .322 PA, but he is different. Or at least his results are. 141 OPS+ to below 80 for all the others.

also,

Kevin Witt, career AAA line: .279/.344/.528
Snyder: .256/.316/.471
Hessman: .241/.328/.490
LaHair: .297/.368/.528

Throw in their respective MLB performances and I'd say that LaHair has demonstrated enough separation above Snyder and Hessman that they are not very interesting as comps...

I'd throw in Dallas McPherson as well, but his inability to stay healthy more or less negates his use as a comp as well.

Witt??? More interesting case, was bad of course, his minor league numbers are close, but I don;t think he as ever as good as LaHair in 2011

I'll throw out another name, Val Pacucci, .275/.392/.507 in AAA, both IL and PCL (like Witt), .192/.294/.329 in 85 MLB PAs

Mike Jacobs in AAA: .274/.343/.481 (.325/.375/.569 in AA)
Kila Ka'ahiue: .281/.412/.497 in AAA

Mike Carp: .276/.357/.504 in AAA

Lucas Duda:.310/.398/.606 in AAA (all IL, no PCL, now that's a line, unfortunately he is stunningly brutal in the field)

Juan Rivera- spent a lot of time in AAA (What was known in NY as the Columbus Shuttle), hit .323/.364/.511 there...

If we are talking about a AAAA slugger in the PCL I'd like to see at least a sustained .900+ OPS, preferably peaking over 1.000.

johnny/der k

appreciate the feedback. i threw out those names since they were all guys who had a big year (for them) and instead of just settling for the major league record which for each was highly limited you did some digging.

lahair sure looks like a hitter. but has he taken a real step forward? too much noise around his numbers to be sure so i prefer to be cautious

again, thanks for the effort

Setting major league performance aside for a moment (which we shouldn't do, but bear with me) - LaHair and Hessman were much more interesting "free talents" than Witt (who had two decent minor league seasons around age 30) and Snyder (who rarely looked like more than a solid AAA player statwise).

I'd disagree, Witt was vaguely interesting, Hessman was not, not statistically and certainly not seeing hi try to hit. I'm kind of shocked that he hit as well as he did in Toledo in 2008- but suspect in hindsight that was more just a random spike/fluke/good year kind of thing.

Anyway, I think with respect to MLEs, AAA performance, LaHair falls into a bit of a gray area- there are guys who have kind of hit the way he has against AAA pitchers who have gone on to be useful MLBers and others who have bellyflopped.

I think a lot of these guys (AAAA sluggers, 750+ AAA PAs) tend to have 2 strikes against them before their first MLB PA:
1: They are defensively limited
2: They are late bloomers

They HAVE to hit immediately- Val Pascucci is and was almost certainly a better ball player than Mike Jacobs- but in Mike Jacobs' first MLB PA he hit an absolutely stunning rocket, and went on to fire off 10 HRs in 100 ABs- Jacobs wasn't even good when OPS+ing 110, but yet went on to have a 2000 PA MLB career. Pascucci hit .177/.297/.290 in 74 PAs at age 25- and that essentially ended his MLB career.

yeah, you must get the cardsfanboy newsletter where he convinced everyone that ryan ludwick really was a .900 ops player

That might be overselling it a little bit, but another thing to keep in mind is these guys often have a steeper aging curve. Ludwick, for example, was a strong prospect but a late bloomer, partly due to injury (broken leg maybe?) and he has fallen off pretty steeply. But look at his 26-31 seasons:

.271/.343/.488/.831 ops+120
420 PA, 19 HR per 162

maybe not .900 ops but strong production for several years.

It’s only May 11th.

That's right, and I've got both Lowrie and LaHair on my fantasy team!!!! Whooo00011!!!

post 27

that is a bit misleading given that his peak season of 151 ops+ was also the one with the most plate appearances and offsets the ops+ seasons of 104, 105, and 110

he was an average major leaguer who had a big year. it happens

Re: #16, last year's park factors are at this link.

Iowa was:

hat is a bit misleading given that his peak season of 151 ops+ was also the one with the most plate appearances and offsets the ops+ seasons of 104, 105, and 110

he was an average major leaguer who had a big year. it happens

Thats why it is called peak and not plateau. And that also reinforces my "steeper aging curve" point. Lumping him in (and maybe lahair too) with these bums:

mike hessman was 30 and hit 34 homers and slugged over .600 for toledo a few years back. where is mike hessman?

kevin witt was 30 and hit 36 homers and almost slugged .600 for durham once upon a time. where is kevin witt?

earl snyder was 28 and hit 36 homers and had 80 extra base hits for pawtucket a while back. where is earl snyder

is a bit of a stretch.

post 26

i threw out some names to see who would bother to do the work and challenge me

one could contend with your last post you are just piggybacking off what others posted for all to see

but if we are on the honor system and you did your own assessment then i can understand that perspective

again, lots of guys have big years late in life in the minors. maybe lahair is better than 1000 other guys.

but i am reserved for now

It's clear from the above exchanges that a systematic study of this phenomenon is still waiting to be done...

Clay's translation for LaHair's 2011 Iowa season can be found on LaHair's player page (a different one than the one linked to by Der K). It suggests an OPS between .850 and .910 (exact translation is .880). Whether that should be adjusted due to LaHair's age is hard to say.

More generally, the reaction to LaHair shows the "have cake and eat it too" approach that's still prevalent in the post-neo era: trying to overlay the "Ken Phelps" old-schoolism upon the more recent deification of the "draft pick geniuses" who more likely than not are just having a "hot streak" of their own (analogous to what LaHair is doing with the Cubs right now).

[EDIT: Looking at LaHair's 2012 splits, one thing that's almost certain to change: his ability to hit .471 after an 0-2 count.]

i don't know if don just called me a dumbass but i figure bryan will be ok just not that special

I'm a believer --

As noted, the difference between some other 4A sluggers seems to pretty much come down to Miserlou's #4 -- LaHair was subpar (in Seattle) when he came up as a 25 yo, but he was good in limited time last year and that's continued this year. Sure - it's heavily weighted by this year's performance, but he's now got more than 300 PAs and I think we can say it's enough of a sample to say that the guy is a major league hitter, even a major league hitter who can hold his own offensively at 1B.

Not to go all scoutish here, but I also like watching him. Other than maybe DeJesus - whose skills seem to have been reduced to identifying hittable pitches and dumping them into the OF - he's the only Cub who seems like he has a plan at that the plate. That's not to take anything away from Castro - but Castro is just going up there and hacking, but has such an extraordinarily quick bat (right now) that he can get by fine. LaHair, on the other hand, is doing an exceptional job of waiting for his pitch -- and what's more, he seems quite adept at adjusting and taking what he gets if the right pitch isn't there.

I'm not ready to offer Rizzo to the Marlins for Zambrano or anything -- but I think the Cubs have a legitimate issue on their hands so far as what they're going to do with Rizzo and LaHair.

C'mon, Harv, you ain't no "post-neo" anything! Even a systematic study of late-bloomers won't give us an iron-clad principle for them, but it would still be better to have that than a series of piecemeal responses.

It's the kind of topic that Bill James used to excel at examining, and he just might do a re-do (do be do be do?) over at his site, if someone asks him nicely.

LaHair was subpar (in Seattle) when he came up as a 25 yo, but he was good in limited time last year and that's continued this year. Sure - it's heavily weighted by this year's performance, but he's now got more than 300 PAs and I think we can say it's enough of a sample to say that the guy is a major league hitter, even a major league hitter who can hold his own offensively at 1B.

Well, it's heavily weighted this year only so far as this year cancels out 2008. His 141 career OPS+ is the same as his last year's numbers.

Even a systematic study of late-bloomers won't give us an iron-clad principle for them

Uncle Dan has said that their ML utility tends to be shorter-lived than you might otherwise expect. I'd guess he's also looked within ZiPS to see if there's any particular factors to suggest which ones end up handling ML level but I don't recall him saying anything particularly about it.

ZiPS did project LaHair to be perfectly decent this year (108 OPS+ matybe, too lazy to look but somewhere around there). His RoS ZiPS right now is 277/345/504 which would be about a 130 OPS+. I'll take that.

No Rizzo-LaHair concerns. Either LaHair will be traded or they'll stick him in LF. Assuming Rizzo continues to perform (347/419/645 at Iowa right now). I assume the Cubs want to keep Rizzo down long enough that he won't have a full year's service time at the end of 2012 which, eyeballing it, would look to be July. I don't think they'll wait that long if he keeps hitting like that.

Uncle Dan has said that their ML utility tends to be shorter-lived than you might otherwise expect.

Well, yes, Walt, that would be true from the get-go, since we are talking about LATE bloomers here. But, yes, it's possible that the career profiles for these type of players follow a general pattern of later in, earlier out, along the lines of Brock Hanke's "skimming cream" formulation.

I'd guess he's also looked within ZiPS to see if there's any particular factors to suggest which ones end up handling ML level but I don't recall him saying anything particularly about it.

If there is something in ZIPS that did that, I guarantee you that Dan would not be writing for ESPN at this point!!

No Rizzo-LaHair concerns. Either LaHair will be traded or they'll stick him in LF.

Most likely in reverse order. If Theo and his gunsel are as smart as many seem to think, they'll try to time LaHair's departure in order to reap something with more long-term upside potential. In the meantime, if a logjam develops with Rizzo, LaHair has played enough OF in the minors for us to assume he can be at least passable in left.