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Sunday, July 27, 2014

Is It True That Some Players Can’t Hack It in New York?

Like many 538 articles, the conclusion is “maybe, there could be something there, but there’s not enough evidence to really say.”

Also, I’m sick and tired of players like Albert Belle being on top of the leader board for RAA below projected RAA.

Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 27, 2014 at 11:09 PM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: yankees

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   1. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: July 28, 2014 at 10:56 AM (#4758935)
I was surprised to see that there may be something to the whole idea of big-market pressure affecting play, at least for batters. (Pitchers, not so much.)

I remember hearing this kind of stuff about Ed Whitson when I was a kid. Looking back at his stats, he slumped in '85/early '86 but it's not like he immediately bounced back upon returning to San Diego. Though he did eventually churn out a few more solid years there.

Edit: And from his wiki page - Martin lifted Whitson from his next scheduled start on September 20. On September 22, while at a hotel bar in Baltimore, Maryland, Whitson and Martin got into a heated argument that spread to other parts of the hotel and resulted in a broken ulna in Martin's right arm and a bruised right side, while Whitson suffered a cracked rib and a split lip.
   2. BDC Posted: July 28, 2014 at 02:03 PM (#4759096)
There would have to be a lot more thought put into design here for the study to say much of anything. Things like a player's age and the tendency for big-market teams to take on a FA after a career year (when he's fixing to regress) may be accounted for in the projections, or maybe not, but it's hard to say.

And the effect wears off if a player sticks around, clearly. I hate Albert Belle being the biggest underperformer ever in 1997 in Chicago too, but in 1998 he had arguably his best season ever there. John Lackey struggles from time to time in Boston but struggled all the way to a World Series ring last fall, etc.
   3. Bhaakon Posted: July 29, 2014 at 09:05 AM (#4759552)
There would have to be a lot more thought put into design here for the study to say much of anything. Things like a player's age and the tendency for big-market teams to take on a FA after a career year (when he's fixing to regress) may be accounted for in the projections, or maybe not, but it's hard to say.


Not only that, but the financial wherewithal of big market teams allows them to cut bait in a hurry. The Padres or some similar team signs a disappointing FA and they're forced to stick it out for the long haul--which could very well mean a return to excellence. The Yankees and similar clubs can afford to overreact to a downturn and release or trade the player at a loss, or just relegate him to a lesser role.
   4. bigglou115 Posted: July 29, 2014 at 09:27 AM (#4759560)
I've always attributed this phenomenon to the nature of FA. Big market teams get their players at FA or traded at the end if arbitration. That means 90% of them are 28 or older. This is commonly the decline phase of most players. So yeah, it only makes sense they'd get worse once the big market teams got them. McCann's a great example. You pick up a 30 year old catcher you don't expect him to hit like he did at 26-28. And yeah, you accept that your taking on a significant collapse risk for a guy who's got 8 years of MLB catching on his legs. I don't know that you need to look further than that.

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