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Thursday, September 20, 2018

Is Red Sox’ slump temporary, or did they come back to earth?

All year, this looked like the revival of the 2016 offense. Some extended drop-offs are starting to make that seem like a mirage.

The Red Sox’ 11 home runs in the month of September are the fewest of all 30 teams. As of midnight going into Thursday, their on-base percentage in September, .317, was middle of the pack at 14th best. Their slugging percentage, meanwhile, was worse than all but four teams, at .362.

“There’s been a few at-bats early in the game, in these two games, that we had a chance to score right away,” Alex Cora said after a 10-1 loss to the Yankees on Wednesday. “We had man at third with less than two outs, and we haven’t been able to cash in. That’s something that, we’ll talk about it, and it’s always good to get the lead. I think we’re pretty good ball club doing that. There’s certain at-bats, just put the ball in play and get the runner in and keep moving forward. We’ll talk about it.”

As they say in certain social circles, it can be two things…..

 

QLE Posted: September 20, 2018 at 10:00 AM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: overreaction, red sox

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   1. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: September 20, 2018 at 10:45 AM (#5748020)
As they say in certain social circles, it can be two things…..


Yeah this. I mean there really aren't too many 110 win teams in baseball history both in fact and in talent. The Sox have too many flaws to be considered one of the greats but it is a very very good team that is not playing great baseball. Despite not really playing well and hitting the toughest part of their schedule and being without their best pitcher they've gone 15-12 which I guess is how you win an outrageous number of games. You aren't as good as you look when you win or as bad as you look when you lose. Even if you take the short term, 6-5 in their last 11 (6 games against first place teams, 2 on the road against a team likely to win 100) isn't really a "slump." It's just frustrating to be this close to wrapping up the division and not getting over the hump.
   2. bobm Posted: September 20, 2018 at 11:17 AM (#5748050)
For single team seasons, From 1908 to 2018, Sept/Oct (within Months), (requiring W >= 100 for entire season(s)/career), sorted by greatest for this split

                                                       
Rk   Team    Split Year W-L% W-L%tot  W Wtot  L  ERA GS
1     CHC Sept/Oct 1935 .885    .649 23  100  3 2.16 26
2     CLE Sept/Oct 2017 .867    .630 26  102  4 2.13 30
3     OAK Sept/Oct 2001 .852    .630 23  102  4 3.04 27
4     STL Sept/Oct 1942 .840    .688 21  106  4 2.14 25
5     KCR Sept/Oct 1977 .813    .630 26  102  6 2.53 32
6     STL Sept/Oct 1943 .800    .682 24  105  6 2.20 30
7     NYM Sept/Oct 1988 .786    .625 22  100  6 2.61 28
8     BAL Sept/Oct 1970 .759    .667 22  108  7 2.65 29
9     NYY Sept/Oct 1980 .758    .636 25  103  8 3.15 33
10    NYY Sept/Oct 1927 .750    .714 21  110  7 2.51 28
11    NYM Sept/Oct 1969 .750    .617 24  100  8 2.31 32
12    PHA Sept/Oct 1911 .750    .669 24  101  8 0.93 33
13    CIN Sept/Oct 1940 .742    .654 23  100  8 2.66 32
14    SEA Sept/Oct 2001 .741    .716 20  116  7 3.07 27
15    PHA Sept/Oct 1929 .739    .693 17  104  6 3.66 23
16    NYY Sept/Oct 1961 .733    .673 22  109  8 2.77 30
17    ATL Sept/Oct 1993 .733    .642 22  104  8 2.87 30
18    HOU Sept/Oct 2017 .724    .623 21  101  8 4.02 29
19    ARI Sept/Oct 1999 .724    .617 21  100  8 4.24 29
20    NYY Sept/Oct 1978 .719    .613 23  100  9 2.77 32
21    OAK Sept/Oct 1988 .714    .642 20  104  8 3.36 28
22    NYY Sept/Oct 1942 .708    .669 17  103  7 2.76 24
23    BAL Sept/Oct 1980 .706    .617 24  100 10 3.82 34
24    PIT Sept/Oct 1909 .706    .724 24  110 10 0.00 34
25    NYY Sept/Oct 2002 .704    .640 19  103  8 3.14 27
26    CLE Sept/Oct 1954 .696    .721 16  111  7 2.53 23
27    CHC Sept/Oct 1909 .694    .680 25  104 11 0.00 37
28    OAK Sept/Oct 2002 .692    .636 18  103  8 3.78 26
29    BRO Sept/Oct 1941 .692    .649 18  100  8 2.34 27
30    SFG Sept/Oct 2003 .692    .621 18  100  8 3.58 26
31    DET Sept/Oct 1968 .692    .636 18  103  8 2.29 26
32    BAL Sept/Oct 1971 .690    .639 20  101  9 2.48 29
33    CLE Sept/Oct 1995 .690    .694 20  100  9 3.70 29
34    STL Sept/Oct 1931 .680    .656 17  101  8 3.19 25
35    CHW Sept/Oct 1917 .680    .649 17  100  8 2.71 25
36    NYY Sept/Oct 1939 .679    .702 19  106  9 3.69 29
37    ATL Sept/Oct 1999 .679    .636 19  103  9 2.61 28
38    OAK Sept/Oct 1990 .677    .636 21  103 10 3.16 31
39    STL Sept/Oct 1967 .667    .627 18  101  9 2.41 27
40    NYY Sept/Oct 1977 .667    .617 20  100 10 3.24 30
41    CIN Sept/Oct 1975 .667    .667 18  108  9 3.85 27
42    STL Sept/Oct 1985 .667    .623 24  101 12 3.11 36
43    BOS Sept/Oct 1915 .667    .669 22  101 11 1.88 34
44    ATL Sept/Oct 1998 .667    .654 16  106  8 2.44 24
45    NYY Sept/Oct 2003 .667    .623 18  101  9 3.04 28
46    NYM Sept/Oct 1986 .656    .667 21  108 11 3.00 32
47    LAA Sept/Oct 2008 .654    .617 17  100  9 4.72 26
48    CHC Sept/Oct 1910 .649    .675 24  104 13 0.00 37
49    DET Sept/Oct 1915 .645    .649 20  100 11 3.73 31
50    PHA Sept/Oct 1910 .645    .680 20  102 11 0.00 32
51    PHI Sept/Oct 1977 .645    .623 20  101 11 3.12 31
52    NYY Sept/Oct 2009 .645    .636 20  103 11 4.03 31
53    NYY Sept/Oct 2004 .645    .623 20  101 11 4.55 31
54    BAL Sept/Oct 1969 .643    .673 18  109 10 2.93 28
55    BOS Sept/Oct 1912 .643    .691 18  105 10 0.04 28
56    DET Sept/Oct 1934 .643    .656 18  101 10 2.79 28
57    MIN Sept/Oct 1965 .643    .630 18  102 10 2.81 28
58    NYY Sept/Oct 1936 .640    .667 16  102  9 4.67 26
59    NYY Sept/Oct 1932 .640    .695 16  107  9 3.82 26
60    PHA Sept/Oct 1930 .636    .662 14  102  8 3.96 22
61    NYG Sept/Oct 1912 .636    .682 21  103 12 2.12 35
62    LAD Sept/Oct 1974 .633    .630 19  102 11 2.83 30
63    PHA Sept/Oct 1931 .630    .704 17  107 10 3.79 27
64    DET Sept/Oct 1984 .630    .642 17  104 10 3.10 27
65    BRO Sept/Oct 1953 .625    .682 15  105  9 3.82 24
66    BOS Sept/Oct 2018 .625    .678 10  103  6 4.21 16
67    HOU Sept/Oct 1998 .625    .630 15  102  9 2.99 24
68    CHC Sept/Oct 2016 .621    .640 18  103 11 3.26 30
69    CIN Sept/Oct 1976 .621    .630 18  102 11 3.50 29
70    ATL Sept/Oct 2002 .615    .631 16  101 10 3.60 26
71    BRO Sept/Oct 1942 .615    .675 16  104 10 3.02 26
72    NYY Sept/Oct 1963 .615    .646 16  104 10 2.71 26
73    ATL Sept/Oct 1997 .615    .623 16  101 10 3.26 26
74    NYG Sept/Oct 1913 .613    .664 19  101 12 2.45 32
75    NYY Sept/Oct 1928 .607    .656 17  101 11 3.85 28
76    NYY Sept/Oct 1937 .595    .662 22  102 15 3.09 37
77    CIN Sept/Oct 1970 .593    .630 16  102 11 3.74 27
78    NYY Sept/Oct 1998 .593    .704 16  114 11 3.74 27
79    NYY Sept/Oct 1941 .591    .656 13  101  9 3.29 22
80    NYY Sept/Oct 1954 .583    .669 14  103 10 3.01 24
81    STL Sept/Oct 2004 .581    .648 18  105 13 3.79 31
82    SFG Sept/Oct 1993 .581    .636 18  103 13 3.55 31
83    SFG Sept/Oct 1962 .581    .624 18  103 13 3.78 31
84    BOS Sept/Oct 1946 .565    .675 13  104 10 3.25 23
85    PHI Sept/Oct 1976 .563    .623 18  101 14 2.90 32
86    BAL Sept/Oct 1979 .556    .642 15  102 12 3.00 27
87    ATL Sept/Oct 2003 .538    .623 14  101 12 3.67 26
88    STL Sept/Oct 2005 .536    .617 15  100 13 3.68 28
89    PHI Sept/Oct 2011 .533    .630 16  102 14 2.95 30
90    OAK Sept/Oct 1971 .519    .627 14  101 13 3.24 27
91    DET Sept/Oct 1961 .517    .623 15  101 14 3.78 29
92    STL Sept/Oct 2015 .484    .617 15  100 16 4.18 31
93    LAD Sept/Oct 1962 .467    .618 14  102 16 3.69 30
94    LAD Sept/Oct 2017 .433    .642 13  104 17 4.22 30
95    STL Sept/Oct 1944 .424    .682 14  105 19 3.78 33


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/20/2018.

7 out of 28 100+ win teams with Sept/Oct Win Pct < .625 were WS winners:

CHC 2016
CIN 1976
NYY 1928
NYY 1937
NYY 1998
NYY 1941
STL 1944

ETA: compared to 27 out of 66 100+ win teams with Sept/Oct Win Pct >= .625 were WS winners.
   3. puck Posted: September 20, 2018 at 12:15 PM (#5748110)
I just noticed the Rays are in 1st place on the BPro 3rd order standings. Is that 3rd order thing ever significant? The Sox lose 10.1 wins, the Rays gain 8.6 in that column.
   4. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: September 20, 2018 at 01:03 PM (#5748143)
3 - That number is adjusted for opponent quality so I'm assuming that because the Rays have played 38 games against divisional foes that are going to win 100 games makes me think that number is getting skewed because that makes no sense.
   5. TomH Posted: September 20, 2018 at 01:24 PM (#5748155)
Yes, if the Rays get "credit" for playing the 110 win Red Sox, who are not really the quality of a 110-win team, that would be odd. Now, if the system rewards the Rays and BoSox both with credit for playing each other and NYY often, that makes sense.
   6. TomH Posted: September 20, 2018 at 01:25 PM (#5748157)
Let's also recall the BoSox won a tough AL East in 2017 while finishing last in the AL in home runs. They do have other talents.
   7. jmurph Posted: September 20, 2018 at 04:31 PM (#5748304)
Is Red Sox’ slump temporary, or did they come back to earth?
There's only one person I trust to answer this question without bias, and his name is Yankee Clapper. So I'll wait.
   8. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: September 20, 2018 at 07:37 PM (#5748408)
The "NFL-ification" of the MLB playoffs makes me, as a Red Sox fan, much less excited about a 110-win season, because it really comes down to:

1) Avoid the Wild Card game
2) Then, try to get the #1 seed
3) Then, get as healthy as you can
4) Then, figure out what your bullpen is going to look like in the postseason.

The WC is going to be NYY vs Oakland. If you're the Red Sox, are you really feeling good about your chances of winning a series against either of those two teams?

They have had #1 and #2 pretty much locked up for a long, long time. The only reason they are slowing down right now is because they are trying to get healthy, particularly Sale. For the last month, they've been working on #3.

The part where they are still struggling in #4 - for a 110-win team with a big payroll, their bullpen is pretty iffy. Their second-best reliever right now may be...Ryan Brasier. Steven Wright and Velazquez are probably their long guys, with Barnes, Workman, and Hembree in there somewhere. It's not great.
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 20, 2018 at 07:47 PM (#5748418)
The "NFL-ification" of the MLB playoffs makes me, as a Red Sox fan, much less excited about a 110-win season, because it really comes down to:

Eh, a 110-win season has always come down to win the WS or you're a huge bust. The 1906 Cubs learned this with no playoffs at all :-)
   10. QLE Posted: September 20, 2018 at 08:21 PM (#5748455)
Eh, a 110-win season has always come down to win the WS or you're a huge bust. The 1906 Cubs learned this with no playoffs at all :-)


The 1954 Cleveland Indians can testify to how, if you think losing the WS is bad for the reputation of a team with a lot of regular-season wins, think of how bad it hurts one's reputation to be swept in one....
   11. Bote Man Posted: September 20, 2018 at 11:49 PM (#5748610)
I'm gonna go with "temporary".
   12. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: September 21, 2018 at 12:23 AM (#5748618)
SBPT -to each is own but for me winning the division is meaningful. Steve Lyons actually made a good point, he said that other than the World Series in his opinion winning the division should be the biggest party because it represents a full year of work, not just a good week.

Like most here I live and die with my team from April to October. Winning a division for me means it’s been a wonderful summer. If they come up short in October I’ll be disappointed of course but I won’t view it as a disappointing season. They genuinely have accomplished something.

If you feel differently fair enough. But that’s my view.
   13. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 21, 2018 at 01:53 AM (#5748632)
Slump over!

I'm with Jose on this one. It's been a great season and if Houston ends up rolling them in the ALCS because they have better starters or a longer lineup, then so be it. Houston is scary good and there is no shame in dropping 4 of 7 to a team like that.

Now losing to the Braves in the Series...that I'd be pretty disappointed about.
   14. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 21, 2018 at 02:21 AM (#5748634)
It's been a great season and if Houston ends up rolling them in the ALCS because they have better starters or a longer lineup, then so be it. Houston is scary good and there is no shame in dropping 4 of 7 to a team like that. Now losing to the Braves in the Series...that I'd be pretty disappointed about.

There may be a potential outcome more disappointing than losing to the Braves. Or Houston.
   15. villageidiom Posted: September 21, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5748794)
There may be a potential outcome more disappointing than losing to the Braves. Or Houston.
Losing to the Rays after they beat Oakland in the play-in game? I guess.

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