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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Saturday, October 27, 2012J.R. Gamble: MLB’s New Era: A Pitchers’ Paradise—Say goodbye to steroids and sluggersAs hip as finding crocheted slouchy berets on the Cake Shop hat rack.
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Posted: October 27, 2012 at 06:38 AM | 10 comment(s)
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1. Bug Selig Posted: October 27, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4284898)I guess I missed that.
What PED's were purged from the game after 1977? I guess I missed that too.
Maybe adding the Mariners and Blue Jays made it too hard to get greenies over the border or something.
Sounds more like this guy misses the 90s.
Ignoring the Steroid comments, and assuming he meant per team not per game, that increase(percentage wise) is dwarfed by the changes from 1919(27 per team) to 1925 (73 per game) Heck even from 1967(115) to 1970 (143) is a pretty good jump.
Of course that 126 includes the 69 from the strike shortened 1981. (ignoring that year, the average was 131 per team) On top of that 1987 averaged 171 per team.
Heh, it's contagious.
Damnit. I actually made that mistake in the paragraph and cleaned it up, guess I missed one.
1998 NL: 1091 K per team
2012 NL: 1238 K per team
There's never been a more exciting time to be a baseball fan!
1989 NL: 119 ISO
1998 NL: 148 ISO
2012 NL: 146 ISO
Well, at least we've gotten all that power out of the game. (In fairness, the peak NL season I think was 200 when ISO was 166)
1998 NL: 326/511 on-contact
2012 NL: 327/517 on-contact
You can explain the entire difference through higher K-rates. (Walk rates are also down 1%)
Binders = New-age
DB
1993: 318/482
1994: 327/508
1995: 326/505
1996: 327/508
1997: 328/512
1998: 326/511
1999: 332/532
2000: 330/536
2001: 328/534
2002: 322/510
2003: 324/516
2004: 326/526
2005: 324/512
2006: 331/535
2007: 330/525
2008: 327/519
2009: 327/516
2010: 326/510
2011: 322/498
2012: 327/517
The change begins in 93 and there's a clear spike from 99 to 01 and maybe 06-07 (but we had testing!). But in general those are remarkably consistent numbers. When a batter hits the ball in 2012, they are getting a slightly better average outcome than they did in 1998.
Changes are primarily due to changes in K-rate. The K-rate (K/PA) went from 15.4% in 1992 to 17.4% by 1995. During this period it seems batters are trading K for power. They bounced 17.0 to 17.4% through 2007 and there are those spike years where batters are hitting the ball hard but not (generally) striking out more to do it. In 2008 it jumped to 18% then 18.4% then 19.3%, held steady then 20.2% this year. This appears to be a much larger strike zone -- batters are hitting it as hard as they did before, they are hitting it less often. As I noted, the walk rate has dropped some too.
I suspect that if you looked at HR/FB rates you'd also find they were pretty steady during this period but I'm too lazy to check more than a few:
2012: 7.6%
2007: 7.7%
2002: 7.9%
1997: 8.1% (wouldn't have guessed that)
1992: 5.0%
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