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Sunday, December 10, 2017

Jack Morris, Alan Trammell elected to Hall | MLB.com

Jack Morris and Alan Trammell were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame from among 10 candidates on the 2018 Modern Baseball Era ballot on Sunda

Jim Furtado Posted: December 10, 2017 at 08:13 PM | 240 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   201. bachslunch Posted: December 13, 2017 at 12:55 PM (#5591806)
Flip
   202. Rally Posted: December 13, 2017 at 01:28 PM (#5591865)
"Or maybe not going is the answer — keeping your money in your pocket might be the best statement."

I don't think that's much of a statement. For one, Cooperstown is going to have more people around for induction weekend than the little town can handle. Plus we are looking at a 5-7 player class of inductions. If I was otherwise inclined to go for the other players I'm not going to change my plans because they put in someone I didn't support.
   203. BDC Posted: December 13, 2017 at 01:59 PM (#5591904)
Although the Quality Start was a maligned stat in its day, in retrospect it retrospect it does tell one which pitchers were good at keeping their team in the game.

Unfortunately, career aggregates in that category don't appear to be easily accessible. (One can find season totals via the team pages at BB-ref.)


PI lets you search by Quality Start Percentage, though that may not be what you are looking for. So for 1970-79, you get this:

Player               QS%  QS  GS
Tom Seaver        0.733
253 345
Jon Matlack       0.686
168 245
Jim Palmer        0.685
241 352
Mel Stottlemyre   0.677
109 161
Bert Blyleven     0.674
236 350
Gaylord Perry     0.674
248 368
Bob Gibson        0.673
115 171
Burt Hooton       0.672
166 247
Frank Tanana      0.658
123 187
Tommy John        0.656
185 282
Don Sutton        0.656
229 349
Steve Rogers      0.654
149 228
Marty Pattin      0.648
125 193 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/13/2017.

Some notables not in that top thirteen are Steve Carlton and Phil Niekro at 64%, Catfish Hunter 62%, Ferguson Jenkins 60%, and Milt Wilcox at 43% (the lowest among starters with 100 decisions).
   204. DavidFoss Posted: December 13, 2017 at 03:06 PM (#5591981)
Some notables not in that top thirteen are Steve Carlton and Phil Niekro at 64%, Catfish Hunter 62%, Ferguson Jenkins 60%, and Milt Wilcox at 43% (the lowest among starters with 100 decisions).

Niekro doesn't surprise me being a knuckler. Catfish had a great 4-5 year peak but simply wasn't good outside of it (including the last four years for the Bronx Zoo). Jenkins is curious. I always thought of him as being a reliable workhorse.

I knew about Carlton. He's one of my favorite pitchers of this era, but I'm a bit too young to remember the 70s. He had some great years, but he also had several mediocre seasons in the middle of his peak. Did the effectiveness of his slider come and go? Sometimes I wonder if that's what happened with Blyleven's famous 9.9 WAR and 17-loss season in 1973. Some days the curve had bite and he'd toss a shutout and other days he couldn't get it over and would lose? Just a hypothesis.
   205. Ithaca2323 Posted: December 13, 2017 at 04:02 PM (#5592028)
I care much more about worthy players who aren't in than unworthy players getting in. Most of the HOFers predate me anyway, so ignoring players I don't care about is easy. My disappointment over Morris being in is dwarfed by my excitement that Trammell is in. And my Morris disappointment only really exists because many obviously more qualified players are not in. (Schilling, Mussina, Clemens, if you don't care about PEDs)
   206. BDC Posted: December 13, 2017 at 05:36 PM (#5592104)
David, Carlton alternated some good seasons (and some great) with some very ordinary ones in the '70s. And Jenkins had some very ordinary seasons with Texas and Boston in the '70s; the arbitrary decade leaves off his strong 1967-69. Basically they were all very good in the decade, but Blyleven was somewhat better by this one measure.

As were Jon Matlack and Burt Hooton and Marty Pattin. I think some of that is just park effects: Matlack in Shea Stadium for much of the decade, Hooton in LA. QS only looks at how many runs you gave up, it's not adjusted for run environment.

Marty Pattin is a guy I barely remember, a starter for the Brewers (in fact a Seattle Pilot, too) and the Red Sox, and then a swingman for Kansas City. Pattin had a career ERA+ of 102, a 21-WAR career, and was clearly doing something right a lot of the time.
   207. Rob_Wood Posted: December 13, 2017 at 06:06 PM (#5592125)
Marty Pattin was one of the few bright spots on that 1970 Milwaukee Brewers team (IIRC Tommy Harper was the other). Again, if I remember correctly, I think Pattin pitched on Opening Day in 1970. Our entire school attended the game (Wisconsin schools did that back in the day).

Edit: after looking it up on BB-Ref, Pattin pitched game two of the 1970 season (darn I hate when I get things wrong). Lew Krausse pitched opening day and the Brewers lost to the Angels 12-0. Thankfully, I did not attend that debacle.
   208. cardsfanboy Posted: December 13, 2017 at 06:22 PM (#5592139)
Although the Quality Start was a maligned stat in its day, in retrospect it retrospect it does tell one which pitchers were good at keeping their team in the game.

Unfortunately, career aggregates in that category don't appear to be easily accessible. (One can find season totals via the team pages at BB-ref.)


I love the quality start for the modern pitcher, it's heavily flawed for older pitchers that would go 8 innings routinely, as it's a stat that you can earn, and then lose it. (i.e. you pitch 6 innings allow two runs, then in the 7th you allow another, and in the 8th another.... To me that is still a quality start, but by the stat, the pitcher loses the QS. I would much more prefer for it to be a finite stat, you get through 6 innings allowing 3 or less runs, you have earned the QS no matter what happens afterwards.
   209. BDC Posted: December 13, 2017 at 07:56 PM (#5592175)
FWIW, the top 21 in career QS%, 1913-present, minimum 200 starts and 200 decisions:

Player               QS%  QS  GS Dec
Clayton Kershaw   0.731
212 290 208
Hippo Vaughn      0.726
196 270 256
Eddie Cicotte     0.725
174 240 241
Walter Johnson    0.714
337 472 491
Pete Alexander    0.709
375 529 504
Tom Seaver        0.702
454 647 516
Mel Stottlemyre   0.694
247 356 303
Claude Hendrix    0.681
145 213 217
Bob Gibson        0.680
328 482 425
Dick Rudolph      0.674
161 239 229
Jeff Pfeffer      0.670
187 279 270
Randy Johnson     0.668
403 603 469
Pedro Martinez    0.667
273 409 319
Don Drysdale      0.665
309 465 375
Babe Adams        0.665
167 251 236
Cole Hamels       0.663
240 362 249
Curt Schilling    0.661
288 436 362
Roy Oswalt        0.660
225 341 265 
Kevin Brown       0.660
314 476 355
Felix Hernandez   0.659
247 375 274
Roy Halladay      0.659
257 390 308 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/13/2017.

Blyleven, for comparison, is at 63%.

It's an interesting mix of eras. Not a lot of guys prominent c1930 are high on the list, though Carl Hubbell is at 61% and Lefty Grove at 60%, quite respectable considering.

The one guy in the top 21 I'd never heard of is Claude Hendrix. Come to find he's there largely on the strength of a monster season in the 1914 Federal League. But he was a good pitcher, a star for the 1912 Pirates and again for the 1918 champion Cubs. Hendrix was shunned by organized ball after gambling scandals in 1920 and played semipro for years thereafter (according to his SABR bio).
   210. OsunaSakata Posted: December 13, 2017 at 10:35 PM (#5592267)
I heard the interesting piece of trivia that Jack Morris has the most career strikeouts without ever striking out a pitcher.
   211. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: December 13, 2017 at 10:55 PM (#5592283)
I heard the interesting piece of trivia that Jack Morris has the most career strikeouts without ever striking out a pitcher.

Don't believe everything you hear. Scroll down to the bottom of the 3rd inning.
   212. SoSH U at work Posted: December 13, 2017 at 11:23 PM (#5592292)
Don't believe everything you hear. Scroll down to the bottom of the 3rd inning.


That's not one of his 2,478 career strikeouts.

By the way, it's safe to say that's a "record" that will never be broken.
   213. PreservedFish Posted: December 13, 2017 at 11:40 PM (#5592298)
I heard the interesting piece of trivia that Jack Morris has the most career strikeouts without ever striking out a pitcher.

Indeed, most of his 2,478 strikeouts came against cleanup hitters with men on base in close games.
   214. SoSH U at work Posted: December 13, 2017 at 11:47 PM (#5592300)
On second thought, that record will fall when the DH gets employed league-wide.
   215. PreservedFish Posted: December 13, 2017 at 11:52 PM (#5592301)
After a new generation of Ohtanis emerges the DH will become an almost-forgotten curiosity, like Doug Flutie's drop kick.
   216. fra paolo Posted: December 14, 2017 at 02:58 PM (#5592754)
Doing some bedtime reading last night I came upon what my important sportswriter had to say about Jack Morris in 1991:
Morris is still capable of having better years than 1990, when he was 15-18. Sparky leaves him in the game an awful long time, lets him get beat on unnecessarily....more pitchers get to 300 wins and reach other career milestones than has ever been the case before, at least since 1920. This makes it extremely unlikely that Morris would be selected to the Hall of Fame on the basis of what he as done through 1990.

I found two things of interest.

1) Do we know how much of Morris' 3.90 career ERA is down to Sparky?
2) Quite clearly (and as unquoted part in the article further suggested) the earlier enthusiasm the important sportswriter showed in 1987 for Morris' HoF chances had cooled down a little.

Given a chance to rank his Top 100 pitchers for a 2001 publication, the important sportswriter left Morris off the list.

On the evidence, Morris' career didn't end well for his HoF case. He was up and down and up during 1987-92. He then had a couple of duff seasons after 1992, and retired with an 18-year career. If he'd been able to go on a bit longer, it might have become harder to dismiss his candidacy. Blyleven pitched 22 years, to Morris' 18, and that's part of the difference between them. But I don't know that he was pitching well enough after 1994. His ERA probably would have gone even higher, but there's a good chance he could have got to 270 wins. It might be the strike had a role in his deciding to call it a day, in which case there's another thing to blame labour hardliners for.
   217. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 14, 2017 at 03:01 PM (#5592759)
I heard the interesting piece of trivia that Jack Morris has the most career strikeouts without ever striking out a pitcher.

That and Most Wins in the '80s??? How did he not sail in on the first ballot? Someone invent a time machine and right that wrong.
   218. Rally Posted: December 14, 2017 at 03:54 PM (#5592810)
1) Do we know how much of Morris' 3.90 career ERA is down to Sparky?


We know his ERA by inning. The 8th inning was his worst with a 4.47 ERA. But if you don't let him pitch the 8th he can't pitch the 9th, when he had a 2.78 ERA - his best. He did not pitch well in a small sample of extra inning games where the world championship was not on the line - 11.2 IP, 9 ER.

If he had been removed after the 7th inning in every start for his entire career his ERA would still have been 3.90.

His 1990 season is not really that different from his 1991 season in terms of what he gave up. His innings went from 249 to 246, hits down 231 to 226, walks 97 to 92, had one more strikeout in 1991. His biggest change was cutting his homers from 26 to 18. He was just a bit better across the board in 1991, but it should have added up to maybe 10-15 fewer runs. Instead he gave up 37 fewer runs - looks like he just did a better job of stranding runners in 1991.
   219. DavidFoss Posted: December 14, 2017 at 05:08 PM (#5592872)
His ERA probably would have gone even higher, but there's a good chance he could have got to 270 wins. It might be the strike had a role in his deciding to call it a day, in which case there's another thing to blame labour hardliners for.

His ERA was 6.19 and 5.60 in his last two seasons.

SABR Bio has interesting end of career details. The Indians cut him on Aug 9th, three days before the strike. He signed with the Reds in the offseason, but didn't make the team in 1995. He went back to MN and pitched for the independent league Saint Paul Saints in 1996 figuring the Twins might call, but they didn't. He is quoted he had a chance to go to the Yankees with Strawberry and turned it down because he didn't want to pitch in NY. I'm not sure I believe that. I think he didn't have anything left. Offense was up, but teams were still looking for guys with ERA's under 6.00.
   220. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: December 14, 2017 at 05:17 PM (#5592885)
Indeed, most of his 2,478 strikeouts came against cleanup hitters with men on base in close games.


What would've happened if he'd faced Fearsome King of Clutch Jim Rice in that sort of situation? I'll assume it never happened as the universe might've just collapsed on itself.
   221. DJS, the Digital Dandy Posted: December 14, 2017 at 05:28 PM (#5592900)
I wouldn’t clap or congratulate someone like Morris, but I wouldn’t boo or catcall either. Sitting quietly seems like a good middle ground.

Or maybe not going is the answer — keeping your money in your pocket might be the best statement.


I wouldn't boo or catcall either, but if I'm there this year -- I almost certainly won't be as next time I go will be for Mussina and he's not getting in this year -- I'll turn my back and leave the area while he speaks.

I would not shake his hand or congratulate him, however. Going on 30 years and never an apology to either Jennifer Frey or, since she's deceased after drinking herself to death, her family. How can I work with women in my profession if I'm chummy with someone who demeans their existence in the profession?
   222. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: December 14, 2017 at 05:28 PM (#5592901)
I heard the interesting piece of trivia that Jack Morris has the most career strikeouts without ever striking out a pitcher.

Don't believe everything you hear. Scroll down to the bottom of the 3rd inning.

That's not one of his 2,478 career strikeouts.


I know what you mean, but it's a stupid technicality, about on par with the claim of some people** that postseasons shouldn't enter into Hall of Fame considerations because It's Not Fair or something. It's not as if Smoltz grounded out to short in that World Series game instead of striking out.

** Not saying you're one of those making that claim, but it's been a fairly common point made in past HoF threads.
   223. SoSH U at work Posted: December 14, 2017 at 06:31 PM (#5592932)
I know what you mean, but it's a stupid technicality, about on par with the claim of some people** that postseasons shouldn't enter into Hall of Fame considerations because It's Not Fair or something. It's not as if Smoltz grounded out to short in that World Series game instead of striking out.


I don't think it's anything like that. Postseason stats have never counted as part of a player's counting stats, and they never should. And I don't know too many people but you who act as if they do.
   224. BDC Posted: December 14, 2017 at 07:04 PM (#5592952)
I tend to agree with Andy here. The "record" is a trivial pursuit to start with, and if it's marred by a postseason achievement, then it's marred by it.

It's kind of like if I never went cross-country skiing, but I did that one time in Sweden when I was drunk, then I still never went cross-country skiing.
   225. LargeBill Posted: December 14, 2017 at 07:11 PM (#5592955)
One good thing about Cooperstown being located in the middle of nowhere is that it likely prevents people from going out of their way just to be a d!ck during the election speech of someone they didn't like. I don't see anyone - sabermetricians or other - doing that anyway for someone who's merely statistically unworthy, but in other circumstances I could see protests against PED suspects were they ever elected. In reality though, the remoteness of the HOF will probably prevent most of that from happening.


Pete Rose has to be sad to be so easily forgotten.
   226. LargeBill Posted: December 14, 2017 at 07:13 PM (#5592956)
200. bachslunch Posted: December 13, 2017 at 12:55 PM (#5591805)
I wouldn’t clap or congratulate someone like Morris, but I wouldn’t boo or catcall either. Sitting quietly seems like a good middle ground.

Or maybe not going is the answer — keeping your money in your pocket might be the best statement.


Doesn't matter what we think. Two Tigers are being inducted, there will be a large Michigan presence and Morris is going to get a huge round of applause.
   227. SoSH U at work Posted: December 14, 2017 at 08:00 PM (#5592978)
I tend to agree with Andy here. The "record" is a trivial pursuit to start with, and if it's marred by a postseason achievement, then it's marred by it.


Would it also be marred by a strikeout during a Spring Training Game? Or an All-Star game? Those incidents also do not count toward player's statistics.

Barry Bonds' home run record is 762, not 771. Rose's hit mark is 4,256, not 4,342. That some of those uncounted events are adding while the other is marring is a reed not strong enough to hang on.
   228. PreservedFish Posted: December 14, 2017 at 09:52 PM (#5593027)
Would it also be marred by a strikeout during a Spring Training Game? Or an All-Star game?

Hmmm, usually you're above this type of slippery slope argument.

I think it depends how you phrase it. "Jack Morris never struck out a pitcher" sounds dumb if in fact he did it in the World Series.

I mean, would you say that Don Larson never threw a perfect game? There's clearly a sense in which the postseason doesn't count. But there's another sense in which it absolutely counts, and in a way that all-star and spring training games obviously do not.

   229. BDC Posted: December 14, 2017 at 10:30 PM (#5593039)
Even the All-Star Game might need an asterisk. I remember when Eric Gagne compiled that insane streak of saves – was it 70 or 80 save opportunities in a row that he converted? – and yet, right in the middle of the streak, he blew a save in an All-Star Game (on a home run to Hank Blalock, which is the only reason I remember it). Obviously that doesn't affect the streak, as we define streaks. But it happened, and I even think it was one of those ASGs where This Time It Counted™. So it's a curiosity, for sure.
   230. SoSH U at work Posted: December 14, 2017 at 10:35 PM (#5593042)
Hmmm, usually you're above this type of slippery slope argument.


I don't think it's a slippery slope argument. Regular season events are the only ones that count when we're talking about records (unless we're specifically talking about postseason records, an entirely different subject). We don't add them together. This is an attempt to get around that simple, inescapable fact, and it doesn't hold water.

Jack Morris has 2,478 career strikeouts. No one disputes that's his big league total. Not one of those 2,478 was against a pitcher*. Dragging out what he did in a World Series is as meaningful as what he did in an All-Star Game or Spring Training, and simply because this is a non-record record or a never did doesn't change that.

* I'm assuming that fact is correct, and he never managed a strikeout against a pitcher who was batting in an AL game because his team lost the use of the DH.
   231. SoSH U at work Posted: December 14, 2017 at 10:40 PM (#5593044)

Even the All-Star Game might need an asterisk. I remember when Eric Gagne compiled that insane streak of saves – was it 70 or 80 save opportunities in a row that he converted? – and yet, right in the middle of the streak, he blew a save in an All-Star Game (on a home run to Hank Blalock, which is the only reason I remember it). Obviously that doesn't affect the streak, as we define streaks. But it happened, and I even think it was one of those ASGs where This Time It Counted™. So it's a curiosity, for sure.


This asterisk application seems more than a bit arbitrary Bob. If Gagne had saved that game, I doubt you'd be pushing to include it in his streak (in the same way you probably don't correct folks who say Bonds has 762 career homers). You only want to apply it when it counters the record at hand.

   232. PreservedFish Posted: December 14, 2017 at 10:49 PM (#5593047)
You only want to apply it when it counters the record at hand.


Well, yeah. We only care when it's notable.

The All-Star game doesn't invalidate Gagne's feat, but it makes a worthy footnote.
   233. PreservedFish Posted: December 14, 2017 at 10:52 PM (#5593048)
"Mark Kiger has never played in the big leagues." True or false?

I'm not saying that postseason statistics should just get lumped in with the regular season stats. It's just that, depending on the claim, sometimes they are worth thinking about.
   234. SoSH U at work Posted: December 14, 2017 at 10:53 PM (#5593049)
The All-Star game doesn't invalidate Gagne's feat, but it makes a worthy footnote.


And the WS K is an interesting footnote to Jack Morris's notable strikeout feat. But it doesn't invalidate it.
   235. PreservedFish Posted: December 14, 2017 at 11:13 PM (#5593053)
Agreed.

But here's what's complicated about the original claim:

"Jack Morris has the most career strikeouts..."

Ok, I think we can all agree this part refers to regular season statistics.

"... without ever striking out a pitcher."

But does this? Probably, but not certainly. I mean, he did strike out a pitcher. And not in little league either, in the World Series. But not while he was compiling career strikeouts.

You could phrase this in different ways that shade the meaning differently. For example,

Jack Morris has the most career strikeouts of any pitcher that has never recorded a strikeout of another pitcher.
Jack Morris has the most career strikeouts of anyone that has never struck out a pitcher.

The first strongly implies we're talking about regular season statistics only. But the second does not at all, in fact, it seems like a falsehood.

And with that ridiculous splitting of hairs that I will go to sleep.
   236. DanG Posted: December 15, 2017 at 01:30 AM (#5593069)
Top pitchers in Morris' peak years, 1983-87:

Player           WAR WAAERA+  QS  W  L     IP   Age  ERA
Bert Blyleven   25.9 15.1  121  96 75 59 1233.2 32
-36 3.57
Dwight Gooden   25.7 17.7  146  93 73 26  924.1 19
-22 2.46
Dave Stieb      23.9 13.4  129 108 67 54 1200.0 25
-29 3.32
Roger Clemens   22.9 16.2  141  60 60 22  767.1 21
-24 3.08
Charlie Hough   21.9 10.7  119 106 80 66 1284.0 35
-39 3.57
Doyle Alexander 21.7 12.0  118  87 66 44 1101.2 32
-36 3.56
Jack Morris     21.6 10.1  120 116 94 54 1324.0 28
-32 3.38
Bob Welch       21.6 12.5  118  99 64 51 1037.1 26
-30 3.07
F
Valenzuela   21.3  9.9  111 111 79 62 1310.2 22-26 3.25
Rick Rhoden     20.2 10.3  114 106 68 59 1131.1 30
-34 3.34
John Tudor      19.8 10.7  125  89 69 40 1044.0 29
-33 3.09 
   237. Rally Posted: December 15, 2017 at 10:27 AM (#5593148)
Top pitchers in Morris' peak years, 1983-87:


Gooden ahead despite not pitching MLB in 1983, Clemens ahead despite not pitching in 1983, and having one season's worth of pitching time (231 innings) in 84-85. Three seasons of Clemens > 5 seasons of Morris, at Morris's absolute peak.
   238. Rally Posted: December 15, 2017 at 10:32 AM (#5593153)
Jack Morris struck out Chili Davis 7 times. Chili Davis pitched 2 scoreless innings on 6-17-93.
   239. Booey Posted: December 15, 2017 at 10:42 AM (#5593166)
Jack Morris struck out Chili Davis 7 times. Chili Davis pitched 2 scoreless innings on 6-17-93.


Probably struck out Boggs and Canseco at some point, too. I remember their adventures on the mound.

Boggs did get a K, though.
   240. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 15, 2017 at 10:54 AM (#5593194)
And with that ridiculous splitting of hairs that I will go to sleep.

No doubt. I'm exhausted just reading that whole line of posts.
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