Baseball Primer Newsblog
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Thursday, June 21, 2012
Plus 41,893 more characters of greatness!
Kerry Wood’s game is not exactly the [Game Score] record, but it is the record for a 9-inning game… The Game Score for Joe Oeschger, when he pitched 26 innings one afternoon, was 153, a feat beyond the understanding of modern fans. But in the last 60 years, Dean Chance against the Yankees on June 6, 1964, had the highest Game Score on record—116. 14 innings, 3 hits, 12 strikeouts, no runs.
Chance’s game has no easy hook, no easy way to remember it, like Wood having 20 strikeouts, or the 16-inning Marichal-against-Spahn game that everybody seems to remember, with the two Hall of Famers, or the Harvey Haddix 12-inning perfect game; there is no one thing about it that makes it stick in the public’s mind—yet Chance’s performance is every bit as impressive as Marichal’s, or Haddix’, or Wood’s.
Suppose that one starting pitcher posts a Game Score of 60, and the other of 50. What are the odds that the team whose starting pitcher is +10 will win the game?
75.3%. There’s a simple pattern that predicts the data: each point of Game Score is 25 points of winning percentage. A four-point advantage in Starting Pitcher Game Score give the pitcher’s team a 100-point advantage in winning percentage. It’s really neat how well that works out
I figured “Expected Game Score” for every game in my data [the last 60 years], based on
1) The league norm for Game Scores in that League and Season,
2) Modified by the Park Adjustment,
3) Modified by the Quality of the Opposing Offense…
If we can evaluate every game by this method, then we can evaluate every season... By this method, the greatest season by a pitcher in my data was by Pedro Martinez in 2000… the top 30 [career] pitchers within my data are as follows:
Rank First Last Career Advantage
1 Roger Clemens 7574
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