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Wednesday, August 09, 2017

Jamey Newberg: Way. - GammonsDaily.com

Joey Gallo hit another bomb today.

Jim Furtado Posted: August 09, 2017 at 03:44 PM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: joey gallo, rangers

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: August 09, 2017 at 10:50 PM (#5510285)
Gallo's been "hot" lately and continues to pull off the "impossible." His K-rate sits at 38% and his OPS+ sits at 125. His BA on-contact sits at 375 -- good but far from unprecedented especially for so few PA. His SLG on-contact sits at 1.000 -- which isn't unprecedented for so few PA but I suspect a combo of 375/1000 is. He has just 20 singles in 314 AB and his BABIP is atrocious at 241. He hits a GB only about 1 of every 4 contacts and hits a HR on 27% of his FBs ... and neither of those is particularly out of line with his (small sample) career rates.

His ISO currently sits at 351. That's not particularly impressive either -- 40th (so far) for a qualified season, Maris 1961 matches it, Kevin Mitchell 1994 beats it as does Jose Bautista in 2010. And of course guys like McGwire, Bonds and Ruth have a number of seasons that blow it out of the water. Still, Mitchell, Bautista, Maris, Luis Gonzalez, Hafner, Chris Davis, Ryan Howard, Carlos Pena are pretty much the worst players to ever achieve something like this.

Obviously a 125 OPS+ ain't close to an all-time great, it's just the unprecedented way he's achieving it. The list of players with an OPS+ of 120 or better and a BA under 220 is Gallo and Tenace 1974. Drop it to 110 OPS+ and you add Gorman Thomas 1985, Joc Pederson 2015 and Dunn 2012 and 2014. He's on pace to be one of 5 guys with a 33%+ K-rate and a 110+ OPS+ -- Sano 2017, Mark Reynolds 2009, Dunn 2012, Chris Carter 2013. Of course long-term he's more likely to end up like Carter or (better) Reynolds ... or Carlos Pena/Chris Davis ... or be only a bad season or two away from going the way of old Dunn, but he's fun to consider in the extreme.
   2. villageidiom Posted: August 10, 2017 at 09:18 AM (#5510366)
Gallo had 133 AB in two seasons prior to this year. Rookie eligibility ends at 131 AB.

Also, Aaron Judge exists.
   3. BDC Posted: August 10, 2017 at 09:51 AM (#5510385)
To add to the weirdness, as of this morning Gallo has 32 HR and 61 RBI. The only player ever to hit more home runs in a season where his own runs on HRs accounted for more than half his RBI is, yes, Barry Bonds in 2001 (73/137).

This is partly because of the never-hits-singles thing, but also because Gallo has mostly batted behind Mike Napoli, Jonathan Lucroy, and Rougned Odor – three batters who have managed quite a bit lower OBPs than Gallo himself.
   4. The Good Face Posted: August 10, 2017 at 01:03 PM (#5510527)
What's the most WAR a player has ever put up in a season while hitting under .210? Belanger in '68 maybe, with 3.4?
   5. Batman Posted: August 10, 2017 at 01:07 PM (#5510534)
What's the most WAR a player has ever put up in a season while hitting under .210? Belanger in '68 maybe, with 3.4?
Yes, he's tied with Brendan Ryan who had 3.4 in 2012 when he hit .194. Matt Williams hit .202 in only 84 games in 1989 and accumulated 2.7 WAR.
   6. Rally Posted: August 10, 2017 at 01:17 PM (#5510553)
I doubt we'll ever find a hitter as extreme as King Kong. When I was about 11 and in the beginning stages of creating a dice-based baseball game, when Kong came to bat we rolled a 4 sided die. A four meant homerun, everything else was a strikeout.

Gallo is close.
   7. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: August 10, 2017 at 01:36 PM (#5510569)
His ISO currently sits at 351. That's not particularly impressive either

But his TB/H, which is a truer measure of power, is staggering.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: August 11, 2017 at 12:56 AM (#5511085)
But his TB/H, which is a truer measure of power, is staggering.

Says who? :-) The drawback to ISO is that the denominator includes Ks. The drawback to TB/H is that it excludes all the times he made contact and got negative results. TB/H (or probably more accurately XB/H) might be a better measure of "maximum threshold power" but SLG/contact or ISO/contact will be a better measure of "expected power" since all those flyballs, pop-ups and 110 MPH at -20 degree balls that go nowhere are "failed power" ... ISO is probably a better measure of "realized power" (or some such) as it includes what the batter has to sacrifice to generate that power. Probably best of all is to just put everything on a PA basis then we're just talking "here's what we can expect" for everybody.

But yes, his ISO on-contact around 625 is darned impressive.

For TB/H Gallo 2017 stands at 2.69. That's better than Schwarber at 2.21, Judge at 2.19, Bellinger at 2.32, Stanton at 2.22 for this year. It does beat McGwire 98 (2.52) and even 2001 (2.63) and even Bonds 2001 (2.63). McGwire 99 also passes 2.5 TB/H.

Looking at H < 2.2*HR (or HR/H > .455), only Bonds (2001) and Mac (98 and 01) have done that in a season (300+ PA). Gallo is currently at 2.09.

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