Even 22 year olds can be in the best shape of their life.

Jair Jurrjens has new orthopedic shoes that are supposed to correct his foreshortened big toe on his right foot and magically make his knee not hurt.

I love spring.

When I see these kinds of headlines, I always think, if we could never conceive of the opposite, don't print it.

"Jason Heyward thinks new swing sucks. Plans to use it anyway." is never going to appear.

"Jason Heyward thinks new swing sucks. Plans to use it anyway." is never going to appear.


Actually, that story did appear with regard to Derek Jeter last season.

I still can't believe Heyward was so bad last year. I really thought he was a can't-miss superstar. So I believe this headline - he'll put it all together now.

I just want him to avoid being unfairly tagged as a slacker and relegated to the bench in favor of Luis Durango or some other mediocrity.

I would like to inform my public that I am not in the best shape of my life this off-season.

I still can't believe Heyward was so bad last year. I really thought he was a can't-miss superstar.

Historically, I think guys who are even just-OK at 21 very often develop into very-good in their primes. And Heyward was darn good at 20.
I wouldn't bet against him, that's for sure.

Actually, that story did appear with regard to Derek Jeter last season.

I thought Jeter was swinging as well as ever last year, it was the parting gift that sucked.

If you'd seen him at LA Fitness swimming in his speedo you would agree the he's in the best shape of his life!

someone has a pic of jason heyward in his speedo? because i really REALLY wanna see that!!!

interesting how 10-15 years ago seems everyone was insisting that it was GOOD to put on weight in the offseason, the more the better. now seems that folks aren't insisting that guys, uh, fill out more because it makes them worse.

interessstink!!

Historically, I think guys who are even just-OK at 21 very often develop into very-good in their primes.

My favorite example of this not happening is Mike Caruso, who hit .306 at age 21 and was basically done at 22. That's an empty .306 (306/331/390), but BBRef and Fangraphs both have him around 2 WAR, and he was probably one of the 10-12 best shortstops in MLB. He certainly was at least "just-OK". Then he hit 250/280/297 at 22 and was done.

That is a fascinating Caruso line. It's about the emptiest .306 you could have, but at a very good contact rate: only 38 K's in 555 AB's. He also made a league-leading 35 errors that year, and had 59 total in his two seasons at SS. I would guess that his glove is the reason he didn't stick.

It wasn't just at the plate that Caruso dropped off. 22/6 SB/CS, then 12/14.

1961-present, the only position players who've put up more WAR than Heyward before age 22:
Griffey Jr., ARod, Cedeno, Andruw, Johnny Bench, Mike Stanton, Alomar, Rickey!, Beltre.

Not far behind Heyward:
Pujols, Joe Morgan.

Not predictive of superstardom, obviously - also right behind Heyward are Claudell Washington and Butch Wynegar.
But even those guys had pretty decent careers.

He also made a league-leading 35 errors that year, and had 59 total in his two seasons at SS. I would guess that his glove is the reason he didn't stick.

The thing is, the White Sox replaced him with Jose Valentin, who'd committed 22 errors in only 660 innings at SS in his last year in Milwaukee, and who committed 36 errors in his first year in Chicago. Those Sox weren't afraid of errors from their SS. Caruso's problem is that his BABIP went from .321 to .264, and a guy who has no power and who draws no walks can't hit .264 on contact. I'm guessing that he had some physical problem that hurt his speed (and maybe his range in the field), and that plus a little bad luck killed his BA. His ISO dropped by nearly half while his contact rate remained identical, so I'm assuming it wasn't purely bad luck on balls in play. Suddenly you've got a guy whose only skill is to make very weak contact.

EDIT: Caruso's 1998 was by OPS+ the 4th-worst season for a .300 hitter since integration. So, yeah.

I looked up Valentin on BBRef....did you know he has 249 career home runs? I wouldn't have guessed that in a million years. I didn't even remember him lasting that long, and he played in the same division as my favorite team.

I don't deny that Heyward as pretty good odds to be a good major leaguer, but the work that Walt has done on his contact rate does strike me as something to be concerned about.

Interesting list in #15 ... note:

CF, SS, CF, CF, C, apparently awesome RF, 2B, Rickey!, 3B ... 3B/LF, 2B

Not a clue if that means anything, just interesting that they're generally not corner players. As a hitter, Heyward is most similar to Andruw, Bench, Stanton and Beltre -- lowish average, walks, some power. Heyward has the 2nd worst BA (Andruw) and lower ISO than Stanton and Andruw (similar to Bench and Beltre) but by far the best OBP.

By the way, Pujols is "just behind" only because age 21 was his rookie year. :-)

If you look by OPS+ and limit it to ages 20-21 (900+ PA), two other names come up just ahead of Heyward -- Justin Upton and Miguel Cabrera. Both have fairly similar K-rates (Heyward's is the best) with lower walk rates but higher BA so pretty similar OBPs. Both Cabrera and Upton had substantially higher ISOs at that age but at least some of that will be context. Boog Powell pops up further down the list -- not a bad hitting comp -- and a not-so-good Sheffield lurks well down the list but he doesn't seem a good hitting comp for Heyward (although it's not impossible).

Not predictive of superstardom, obviously - also right behind Heyward are Claudell Washington and Butch Wynegar.
But even those guys had pretty decent careers.

I don't think anybody is expecting Heyward to disappear. The question is whether he's going to return to that age 20 track (or better) or will that end up being one of his better seasons in a good, solid career. From a strictly statistical/model point of view, last year was a huge fly in the ointment and I'd think that now Jack Clark looks like his upside, not his expected outcome.