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Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Jay Jaffe: Postseason performance enhances Beltran’s emerging Hall of Fame case

He stood there like the Hall of Fame Museum by the side of the road, and watched it go by.

Beltran, 35, continues to pad his postseason credentials at a time when his career is on the rebound. More than two years removed from knee problems that required surgery, and coming off a strong — if uneven — season in which his first-half play generated MVP discussion, he’s at a point where his Hall of Fame case is coming into focus. In the past 13 months, he has surpassed the 300 homer, 300 stolen base and 2,000 hit milestones, putting him a select group with five other ballplayers: Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez, Andre Dawson and Steve Finley.

...Those milestones alone won’t be enough to put Beltran over the top, but with his career back on track, he’s poised to climb higher. With this year’s 32 homers, he’s now at 334; if he can get to, say, 2,500 hits and 400 homers, he’ll be one of 26 hitters with such a pair. Seventeen of those players are already in the Hall, and the rest — Bonds, Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero — have the resumes for it, if also some PED allegations to complicate matters.

...Beltran’s peak is further below the average than one might have suspected going in, though he still has a case as one of the top 10 centerfielders in history — no small accomplishment, and one that may trump any relation to the standards in the minds of actual voters. From the standpoint of JAWS, while he may be able to stick around past age 40 and add a couple of WARP per year (he was worth 3.3 last year, and 1.9 this year, with −8 FRAA defense in each season cutting into his value), increasing his peak score at this stage is a taller order. His seventh-best season was worth 4.2 WARP, a mark he hasn’t exceeded since 2008, when he was 31 and still playing centerfield.

Even allowing that his postseason accomplishments are worth a handful of extra WARP, he’ll have work to do just to surpass any of the aforementioned contemporaries. That said, he’s not done yet — either in the grand scheme of his career, or in this October.

Repoz Posted: October 16, 2012 at 05:10 AM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hof

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   1. Greg K Posted: October 16, 2012 at 07:52 AM (#4272235)
My super-duper career evaluation system (career, best 3 seasons, best 5 seasons, WAR per PA all weighted arbitrarily) which treats B-Ref WAR as beyond reproach and is therefore to be taken very seriously has Beltran at a score of 82.7, where the Hall of Fame discussions begins around 75 and comes in at "lock" territory somewhere in the low-80s. He just pulled into a tie with Lofton after the 2012 season.

Among the players listed here I have
Bonds - 169.2 (essentially breaking the formula)
Rordirguez - 130.1
Griffey - 100.7
Chipper - 95.1
Ramirez - 77.8
Palmeiro - 77.2
Vlad - 73.6
Sheffield - 70.8 (obviously this and Manny's rating hinges on B-Ref stance on his D)
   2. TomH Posted: October 16, 2012 at 08:09 AM (#4272240)
Carlos Beltran's post-season stats, as of Tues AM, multplied by 5 (which gives it the full-season look, and in case you view post-season games as about 5 times as imortant as regular season games).
.G 150
AB 555
BB 120
2B 45
HR 70
SB 45
CS 00
R 190 (!!)
RBI 125
OPS1324 (#1 all time)



   3. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: October 16, 2012 at 09:25 AM (#4272259)
Beltran at a score of 82.7, where the Hall of Fame discussions begins around 75 and comes in at "lock" territory somewhere in the low-80s. He just pulled into a tie with Lofton after the 2012 season.


So now he's a lock for the Hall of Fame ... just like Kenny Lofton is?
   4. BDC Posted: October 16, 2012 at 09:38 AM (#4272265)
Don't have time to run a comps list right now, but it's interesting that Beltran keeps appearing on all the ones I've done recently: Ichiro, of course, Rolen, David Wright through age 29, etc. Definitely a darn good ballplayer.
   5. Greg K Posted: October 16, 2012 at 09:47 AM (#4272277)
So now he's a lock for the Hall of Fame ... just like Kenny Lofton is?

I should have specified that this is my personal Hall of Fame and not a projection for the actual one. In which case it is a fairly comfortable "yes" in both cases, though lock may be over-stating it.
   6. zack Posted: October 16, 2012 at 09:54 AM (#4272279)
But...but...he took that curveball that one time! He's history's greatest monster!
   7. JE (Jason Epstein) Posted: October 16, 2012 at 10:28 AM (#4272302)
I should have specified that this is my personal Hall of Fame and not a projection for the actual one.

That's pretty cool. Do Bud Selig and Joe Morgan make it to your induction ceremonies?
   8. Greg K Posted: October 16, 2012 at 10:31 AM (#4272305)
That's pretty cool. Do Bud Selig and Joe Morgan make it to your induction ceremonies?

How big do you think my living room is? I'm only a student.
   9. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Posted: October 16, 2012 at 11:27 AM (#4272355)
Regardless of his HOF chances, the numbers in [2] are worth gawping at. Jeebus.

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