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Saturday, August 25, 2012

Jayne: Trade may have been too late for resurgent Seattle

“He’s back to the old Ichiro!”...except on the road Michael Kay, where Ichiro has yet to score a run.

For most of the season, as with the past couple years, the Mariners have been bedeviled by a historically bad offense. And through the first 100 games of 2012, Ichiro and Smoak were two of the primary culprits.

Despite occupying two primary offensive positions—right field and first base—through July 23, Ichiro and Smoak had combined for 0.2 Wins Above Replacement. That suggests that the Mariners could have picked up two players out of a slow-pitch softball league and received essentially the same production.

On that July day, Ichiro was granted his request for a trade, being sent to the Yankees, and Smoak was sent to Triple-A (he recently was recalled as an injury replacement). It’s no coincidence that Seattle won 19 of its next 28 games.

All of which means that if the Mariners fall a couple games short of the playoffs, they can curse the backward thinking that kept Ichiro and Smoak in the lineup about two months too long.

Ichiro was in the final year of a five-year deal that paid him $18 million a year, a contract that was absurd when it was offered and proved to be an albatross for the club. He was an icon in Seattle, a status that prevented the franchise from replacing him when it should have two years ago.

Repoz Posted: August 25, 2012 at 09:27 AM | 7 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mariners

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   1. TerpNats Posted: August 25, 2012 at 10:01 AM (#4217726)
Even if the M's had made those moves in May, their roster simply wasn't strong enough (and the competition too plentiful) for them to be a valid playoff contender.
   2. The George Sherrill Selection Posted: August 25, 2012 at 11:18 AM (#4217819)
All of which means that if the Mariners fall a couple games short of the playoffs

The Ms are 61-65 and last in their division. They are not going to fall a "couple games" short of the playoffs.
   3. gef the talking mongoose, amorphous lefty blob Posted: August 25, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4217954)
Jayne, you ignorant slut!
   4. The District Attorney Posted: August 25, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4217972)
The hero of Clark County, the man they call Jayne
   5. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: August 25, 2012 at 03:26 PM (#4218072)
Gef, you are awesome.
   6. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: August 25, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4218100)
Setting defense aside...

If you gave Smoak's (.255 wOBA with the Mariners) 409 plate appearances to a guy like Mike Carp (.300 wOBA), it would have generated around 16 more runs of offense.

If you gave Ichiro's (.281 wOBA with the Mariners) 423 plate appearances to a guy like Eric Thames (.300 wOBA), it would have generated around 7 more runs of offense.

Given their 61-65 record, I don't see how anyone could possibly convincingly argue that if the Mariners had scored 20-25 more runs this season that they would be competitors for the wildcard.
   7. SM Posted: August 25, 2012 at 05:18 PM (#4218123)
Yeah, but Carp hasn't been playing because he's been hurt. They didn't choose to not play him all year.

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