I pontificated to my chums 3/20, with 2 options for $12 and $14.

I too will accept an offer of 3 years and 20 million dollars.

This seems fine.

Mark Polishuk of MLBTR projected on August 8th that a Morrow extension could happen this offseason:

"If an extension did happen this winter, however, a fair number would be a three-year deal worth $19MM, broken down as $4MM in 2012, $6MM in 2013 and $9MM to cover Morrow's first free agent year in 2014. Knowing Anthopoulos' history, such an extension would certainly include at least one option year, perhaps an $11MM team option for 2015."

Not bad.

Wow. And he even has proof he predicted it.

I just hope he turns his ability into results this year.

Yeah, what's the deal with him? After 2010, he looked like an obvious breakout candidate - great K rate and peripherals that belied a much better picther than his runs allowed would indicate. Then, he went out and had the same type of season again in 2011 - great peripherals and somehow still below average at preventing runs. What's the deal? Does he lose focus? Can't pitch well from the stretch?

That's the question. How much has the poor OF defense been hurting the flyball pitcher Morrow? Does he have issues pitching from the stretch? etc. Fangraphs is taking a look at it today.

He's the "anti" Matt Cain.

He should pay a commission to Voros. Without DIPS, there's no way in hell he gets this contract.

Opposing batters hit .237/.314/.391 against him.

Using the ERP run estimator,
in 2007 Morrow "should" have given up 34 runs, he gave up 29
in 2008 Morrow "should" have given up 24 runs, he gave up 26
in 2009 Morrow "should" have given up 41 runs, he gave up 38
in 2010 Morrow "should" have given up 74 runs, he gave up 76
in 2011 Morrow "should" have given up 92 runs, he gave up 103

Given his basic peripherals even 92 "looks" a bit high, but he gave up some homers in 2011 (not a huge number, but it wasn't a strength in 2011), he hits a few batters, (again not a huge number but a bit more than average), and a larger than normal (but not huge) number of runners reached on error against him, he was also relatively easy to run against in 2011 (but not in other years)...basically all the little stuff that you can usually eave out of run estimators because they are normally inconsequential were all running against him

-and-

with runners in scoring position batters hit .288/.366/.523 against him
That's why he gave up 103 rather than 92

His career split isn't as bad, .264/.367/.429- pull out 2011 and it's relatively normal, 2011 could be random noise, he could just be unlucky, or he either can't pitch put of the stretch or the adjustment he made when runners are on are counter productive- either way you'd think his pitching coach should be working on this.

I think in 2011 he was both unlucky and messing up with runners on. I think he's as good a break out candidate as any. I guess the counter is that Nolasco never really broke out- but I think Nolasco's great peripherals masked a serious problem- he never walked anyone because he was/is too hittable when in the hitting zone, Nolasco's just a better version of Glendon Rusch

Is it possible that his historically low GIDP rate (last year, 1 GIDP in 179.3 IP) is a factor here?

I dunno if that makes sense, but it's certainly something that stands out about him, anyway.