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Wednesday, August 08, 2018

Jayson Werth called every team but Mets for job last winter – HardballTalk

Werth hit .206/.297/.389 in 145 PA for Tacoma.

Werth went on to decry analytics and Ivy League-educated front offices. Those sorts are worthy of criticism, but he did not exactly cover new ground here, nor did he explain how the analytical bent of front offices did him, personally, and injustice. I wouldn’t expect a player in Werth’s position to say so, but there is not a reason to believe that there’s a place for him on the field at this point of his career.

Jim Furtado Posted: August 08, 2018 at 10:08 AM | 37 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: jayson werth

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   1. Bote Man Posted: August 08, 2018 at 10:53 AM (#5723053)
Those of you who love to hate Ruin Tomorrow Jr. should listen to Howard Eskin's podcast in which Jayson Werth excoriates Ruben for breaking up a World Series-caliber team that had been handed to him.

He also wants you nerds to take your laptops and get off his playing field!!
   2. McCoy Posted: August 08, 2018 at 10:56 AM (#5723058)
Thought Werth was a horrible signing for the Nationals but DC fans seemed to have liked him and were rarely down on him.
   3. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: August 08, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5723062)
How can anyone dislike a player with such a freakish facial resemblance to the WWE wrestler Edge?
   4. Bote Man Posted: August 08, 2018 at 11:06 AM (#5723065)
Thought Werth was a horrible signing for the Nationals but DC fans seemed to have liked him and were rarely down on him.

One word: Game 4 walk-off home run.
   5. Adam Starblind Posted: August 08, 2018 at 11:30 AM (#5723090)
Womp womp.
   6. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: August 08, 2018 at 12:07 PM (#5723137)
How can anyone dislike a player with such a freakish facial resemblance to the WWE wrestler Edge?


Always amused to hear about how Vince McMahon thought Edge's "brother" Christian was genuinely ugly and, thus, had a limited ceiling as a babyface. Edge was always the weirder looking of the two.
   7. Rally Posted: August 08, 2018 at 12:14 PM (#5723150)
My recollection of Werth's time with the Nats is mostly positive, but it's biased by selective memory. He had some good years with the team, had the walk-off HR, and finished well. But the overall record is not so good. "Some good years" = 2.5, but he was signed for 7. Overall, 8.8 WAR for 126 million is not an investment to brag about. I was there for game 5 last year and Werth did his best to help the Nats get past the Cubs, he had 2 hits and 2 walks. Unfortunately he was only 1 for 14 (+2 walks) in the other 4 games. Maybe a bit more production there would have made game 5 unnecessary.
   8. Bote Man Posted: August 08, 2018 at 12:42 PM (#5723168)
Werth is oddly charismatic which attracted a following to him. He is credited by some for getting the Nationals clubhouse in order as far as making it worthy of Big League Players.

The story goes that, by signing Werth to a long-term contract, the Nationals announced that they were a Serious Contender and this would entice other big free agents to sign there. I'm not so sure that worked out that way, but a big strength of the organization has been their farm system; who needs big ticket free agents when you can get a Juan Soto for cheap?
   9. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 08, 2018 at 12:52 PM (#5723178)
who needs big ticket free agents when you can get a Juan Soto for cheap?
"Everyone does! EVERYONE DOES!!" --S. Boras.
   10. Rowland Office Supplies Posted: August 08, 2018 at 02:10 PM (#5723269)
Always amused to hear about how Vince McMahon thought Edge's "brother" Christian was genuinely ugly and, thus, had a limited ceiling as a babyface. Edge was always the weirder looking of the two.

I loved how the two of them used to taunt Matt Hardy as "the world's ugliest pretty boy," because...yeah.
   11. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: August 08, 2018 at 02:44 PM (#5723310)
Werth went on to decry analytics and Ivy League-educated front offices.


Which is a little funny because Werth checked a lot of sabermetric boxes: okay average but excellent walk rate; decent steal numbers but very few CS; solid defense but from a non-premium position; power based more on doubles than HRs. That kind of player doesn't get the huge contract 20 years earlier.
   12. Bote Man Posted: August 08, 2018 at 03:17 PM (#5723353)
In the podcast he described himself as "an on-base guy". His defense the last couple of years with the Nats was sub-par, to put it kindly. He's a guy who is tough to hate, but he was a definite drag on the Nationals the last 2-3 years. In the same way that face-of-the-franchise Ryan Zimmerman is now. What to do??
   13. , Posted: August 08, 2018 at 03:22 PM (#5723364)
I'm by no means an analytics expert. I love reading it but haven't actually done any of my own.

But my interpretation of the analytics revolution is that 90% of its worth is simply making people recognize that OBP is a critically important stat, far, far more important than BA. All the other stuff is noise.
   14. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: August 08, 2018 at 03:36 PM (#5723378)
It's rare that you can pinpoint the peak one minute and twenty seconds of any wrestler's career, but in Christian's case there is no doubt.
   15. Adam Starblind Posted: August 08, 2018 at 04:03 PM (#5723406)
"They’ve got all these super nerds in the front office"


I love that he called them nerds, like he's in the Alpha Beta frat at Adams College. Gave me a chuckle. Nerds.
   16. Batman Posted: August 08, 2018 at 04:34 PM (#5723434)
The nerds in 28 front offices told him he wasn't good enough to hit .206 for their Triple A team. Only the Fonzies in Seattle recognized that he could still do that.
   17. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 08, 2018 at 04:42 PM (#5723442)
I love that he called them nerds, like he's in the Alpha Beta frat at Adams College.
He's just mad because his girlfriend had sex with Theo Epstein while Epstein was wearing an astronaut costume to fool her into thinking he was Werth.

Actually, now that I see that typed out, that probably wasn't OK for Epstein to do.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: August 08, 2018 at 05:03 PM (#5723457)
#13: also strikeouts for pitchers or FIP (or FIP-like) in terms of predictability and longevity.

In more fairness, the sac bunt is dead, SBs are probably much more strategic (although I think we may have gone too far) and correctly or not, defense is more formally evaluated.

Conundrum: for all the focus on OBP, walk rates have remained pretty stable.
   19. stevegamer Posted: August 08, 2018 at 05:36 PM (#5723489)
Those of you who love to hate Ruin Tomorrow Jr. should listen to Howard Eskin's podcast in which Jayson Werth excoriates Ruben for breaking up a World Series-caliber team that had been handed to him.


Sorry, I hate Howard Eskin way more than Ruben Amaro, Jr. There are multiple Eskins on the list of most unpleasant people I've ever had to deal with.

Werth was also very popular with beard lovers, in addition to the groups listed.
   20. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: August 08, 2018 at 06:16 PM (#5723514)
He's a guy who is tough to hate, but he was a definite drag on the Nationals the last 2-3 years

made far worse by the fact that Dusty kept throwing him out there--especially in last year's NLDS; he wasn't hitting a lick and his defense killed the Nats
   21. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: August 08, 2018 at 07:01 PM (#5723540)
Conundrum: for all the focus on OBP, walk rates have remained pretty stable.

Not much of a conundrum. As much as hitters want to draw walks more, pitchers now want to prevent walks more. And pitchers are ultimately the ones who control walk rates the most. Can't walk if the pitcher won't throw balls. Best way to lose your job as a pitcher these days is to walk a ton of guys (or give up a lot of homeruns).
   22. Walt Davis Posted: August 08, 2018 at 09:23 PM (#5723653)
Are we sure he didn't try but the Mets hadn't paid their phone bill?
   23. Howie Menckel Posted: August 08, 2018 at 09:26 PM (#5723658)
WERTHLESS METS?
   24. Walt Davis Posted: August 08, 2018 at 09:27 PM (#5723661)
Not much of a conundrum. As much as hitters want to draw walks more, pitchers now want to prevent walks more. And pitchers are ultimately the ones who control walk rates the most. Can't walk if the pitcher won't throw balls. Best way to lose your job as a pitcher these days is to walk a ton of guys (or give up a lot of homeruns).

I see no evidence of this. Strike/pitch ratios haven't changed a bit as far as I know. The way to not make the majors is to not strike guys out; the fastest way to lose a job these days is probably giving up lots of HRs; certainly they'll let you walk a number of guys as long as you strike enough out. Given HRs, pitchers should be nibbling more, leading to more walks -- which did happen at the height of sillyball.
   25. Red Voodooin Posted: August 08, 2018 at 10:23 PM (#5723724)
I see no evidence of this.


You think that teams recognized that OBA was the most important offensive stat and adjusted accordingly, but failed to recognize or adjust for its importance on the defensive/prevention side?
   26. Adam Starblind Posted: August 09, 2018 at 06:56 AM (#5723800)

He's just mad because his girlfriend had sex with Theo Epstein while Epstein was wearing an astronaut costume to fool her into thinking he was Werth.

Actually, now that I see that typed out, that probably wasn't OK for Epstein to do.


No, technically that's rape.
   27. Bote Man Posted: August 09, 2018 at 09:44 AM (#5723867)
Scott Boras in response to Jayson Werth's comments regarding his representation: "We contacted all 30 teams numerous times during the offseason on his behalf, and we have phone logs, emails, and other records to back it up."

Washington Post article (paywall after X visits per month)
   28. Bote Man Posted: August 09, 2018 at 10:27 AM (#5723929)
The full statement from the Boras Corporation response, from the above article:

“Unfortunately, it appears someone has misled Jayson. We contacted all 30 teams numerous times during the offseason on his behalf, and we have phone logs, emails, and other records to back it up. We received no offers for Jayson in November, or otherwise. We are always prepared to support our work against inaccuracies spread by third parties. We understand the frustration and disappointment players can face and wish Jayson all the best.”

Translation: fück you too, ya liar!
   29. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: August 09, 2018 at 12:24 PM (#5724060)
No, technically that's rape.


"Revenge of the Nerds" reference, in case that wasn't clear. Movies from the '80s have some plot points that would definitely not fly today.
   30. Adam Starblind Posted: August 09, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5724156)
"Revenge of the Nerds" reference, in case that wasn't clear. Movies from the '80s have some plot points that would definitely not fly today.


Yes, I got the reference. It was rape when Lewis did it, would be rape if Epstein did it. [winking emoticon]
   31. , Posted: August 09, 2018 at 02:27 PM (#5724195)
I had a student last year ask if I had seen Sixteen Candles. I said yes and she asked if I was horrified by it. I was busy so I said something like I haven't thought of it in years. That was not the correct response. It was on TV one sunday and I watched and, yeah, that movie didn't age well.
   32. Bote Man Posted: August 09, 2018 at 02:29 PM (#5724197)
Shorter: everything is terrible, Humans are disgusting, bring on the Sweet Meteor o' Death!!

Next topic.
   33. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 09, 2018 at 02:36 PM (#5724203)
We contacted all 30 teams numerous times during the offseason on his behalf, and we have phone logs, emails, and other records to back it up.
"Hey, Scott Boras here. Just wanted to get in touch about the tremendous opportunity you have to sign Jayson Werth. We're talking to all 30 teams, but he'll sign today for 5 years, $150 million. Call me back as soon as you get this, because he'll be gone by tomorrow at that price."
   34. Walt Davis Posted: August 09, 2018 at 04:54 PM (#5724338)
You think that teams recognized that OBA was the most important offensive stat and adjusted accordingly, but failed to recognize or adjust for its importance on the defensive/prevention side?

No I think that pitchers were always instructed to throw strikes and have limited control over their ability to do so and that ability hasn't changed very much. To the extent there has been adaptation on the pitching side, it has been to (a) strike guys out while (b) keeping the pitch out of the middle of the zone and (c) not easing off on any batters because pretty much everybody can take you deep now.

The shift in batter approach was to whale on good strikes and let hard-to-hit strikes go by. Rake and take has never been about the take, it's about the rake. The major shift in Moneyball was a massive jump in on-contact production in exchange for Ks. For a while pitchers adjusted to this by throwing fewer strikes, walking more guys, not fewer. Pitchers (or the league via the strikezone) eventually countered this by replacing contact with Ks. With the larger strike zone, of course walks eventually went down for a while.

The "OBP revolution" wasn't so much about batter approach, the shift was in batter valuation. Historically walks were primarily seen strictly as the pitcher's fault. Occasionally a batter like Rose was noted for his walking ability but even this was positioned as his tenacity at not giving in to the pitcher and doing everything he could to reach base ... and he was far more celebrated for his hits. And rather than recognizing somebody like McCovey as patient, he was "pitched around" ... which to a great extent he was given he was about the only guy putting up 300 ISOs ... and often quite literally in his prime via the IBB. Occasionally somebody like Manny Sanguillen would get the label of a wild swinger but more often these guys were seen as "tough outs" who didn't K (Glenn Beckert, Bill Buckner from the Cubs).
   35. cardsfanboy Posted: August 09, 2018 at 07:59 PM (#5724418)
The "OBP revolution" wasn't so much about batter approach, the shift was in batter valuation.


Yep, that was mentioned quite frequently by Bill James and others, and they pointed out that they didn't think it was really possible for a guy to largely change his approach when he made it to the majors, and even in the minors it was hard to change the player. It was just about valuing the skills that the guys already had differently. There was a reason why we constantly made fun of year after year of articles talking about how Jeff Francoeur has learned how to bat and has decided to become a more patient hitter in May of every year and then watch him play out the same results for the rest of the year.
   36. Stormy JE Posted: August 11, 2018 at 09:44 PM (#5725258)
Werth is oddly charismatic which attracted a following to him. He is credited by some for getting the Nationals clubhouse in order as far as making it worthy of Big League Players.
Who wouldn't love a player with #GoT and Werewolf in London walkup music? Heck, many fans remember Michael Morse more for playing A-ha when he came to bat than any one swing of the bat.
   37. greenback slays lewks Posted: August 11, 2018 at 10:24 PM (#5725277)
Heck, many fans remember Michael Morse more for playing A-ha when he came to bat than any one swing of the bat.

Weird, I remember Morse as the guy who hit a home run without a bat in his hands.

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