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Tuesday, August 28, 2018

J.D. Martinez has 3-in-100 odds to win the Triple Crown

“There have only been 10 hitters to win the Triple Crown since RBI became an official stat in 1920 — Miguel Cabrera (2012), Carl Yastrzemski (1967), Frank Robinson (1966), Mickey Mantle (1956), Ted Williams (1947, 1942), Joe Medwick (1937), Lou Gehrig (1934), Jimmie Foxx (1933), Chuck Klein (1933) and Rogers Hornsby (1925, 1922).”

Nothing new here, but hey, as of today JD leads in BA and RBI, and is one back in HR.  Do we care?  Sure!!!  It’s baseball, and it’s good.

Who’s got the over/under?  Bring it on, men and women.

The odds are better than 3 in 100.

Lest we forget Posted: August 28, 2018 at 07:27 AM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: jd martinez, stats, triple crown, we care

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. bfan Posted: August 28, 2018 at 07:57 AM (#5734641)
Are we sure these aren't co-dependent variables, so that if, for example, he surges in HR's, RBI will surely follow (and maybe average too, if he is converting more fly-balls to HRs instead of outs)? If they are, then multiplying the percentages, which otherwise is a sound approach, maybe doesn't capture the real chances.
   2. TomH Posted: August 28, 2018 at 08:54 AM (#5734655)
totally agree with bfan. While his competitors to batting title, etc are independent, there is cross correlation as high as .70 for HR and RBI (heck, it's easy to see an injury kills them both).

It is ironic that a slump by a teammate (Mookie) could conceivably help give JD a TC and a MVP award.
   3. TomH Posted: August 28, 2018 at 08:57 AM (#5734656)
To reiterate, this is a pretty basic math error by the writer of the article. If JD gets the HR title, he gets the RBI title >95% of the time. Done.
   4. Swoboda is freedom Posted: August 28, 2018 at 09:27 AM (#5734673)
It is ironic that a slump by a teammate (Mookie) could conceivably help give JD a TC and a MVP award.

Do you think he wins the MVP with the Triple Crown even if Mookie ends the slump? Say the season ended today (with Martinez adding 2 more home runs), DH vs very good outfielder? Betts is way ahead in WAR.
   5. Nasty Nate Posted: August 28, 2018 at 09:34 AM (#5734676)
Arenado also has a shot at getting the triple crown. He's hitting .308, leader is .313. He has 31 HRs, leader has 34. He has 91 RBI, the leader has 97.
   6. TomH Posted: August 28, 2018 at 10:33 AM (#5734730)
4, yes, the Triple Crown might be enough to put JD on top I think.
   7. Khrushin it bro Posted: August 28, 2018 at 03:47 PM (#5734980)
Khrush Davis will beat him in homeruns, sorry.
   8. Lest we forget Posted: August 28, 2018 at 03:58 PM (#5734996)
10 previous winners, he would be the 11th.

Somebody please rank the potential 11 in order of 'greatness'.
   9. Rally Posted: August 28, 2018 at 04:02 PM (#5735000)
Do you think he wins the MVP with the Triple Crown even if Mookie ends the slump? Say the season ended today (with Martinez adding 2 more home runs), DH vs very good outfielder? Betts is way ahead in WAR.


I thought this was settle case law in Cabrera vs. Trout. Triple Crown trumps all.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: August 28, 2018 at 05:28 PM (#5735072)
Somebody please rank the potential 11 in order of 'greatness'.

Well the bottom two are clearly Medwick and Klein (take your pick) and JDM would at best be in that bunch (we'll have to wait for his career to end). The other guys are pretty mega-awesome with Miggy probably the next worst (depending on his future but it's not looking bright). After that, feel free to debate whether Yaz and Robbie are inner-circle or not.
   11. Swoboda is freedom Posted: August 28, 2018 at 06:39 PM (#5735103)
I thought this was settle case law in Cabrera vs. Trout. Triple Crown trumps all.


Ted Williams did it twice and didn't win the MVP either time. Of course, he didn't win it when he hit .400 either.
   12. Endless Trash Posted: August 28, 2018 at 07:11 PM (#5735116)
Kinda funny that I had no idea until now.

This was still a big deal when Cabrera was chasing it in 2012.
   13. PreservedFish Posted: August 28, 2018 at 07:23 PM (#5735121)
I think that sportswriters blew their collective wad on the 2012 MVP vote. "First triple crown in XX years!!!!" This year, the better player has a better chance at winning it.
   14. Lest we forget Posted: August 29, 2018 at 04:42 AM (#5735314)
Thanks, Walt.

1. Williams
2. Gehrig
3. Mantle
4. Robinson
5. Hornsby
6. Foxx
7. Yaz
8. Cabrera
9. Ducky Medwick
10. Klein
11. Martinez ?


   15. MuttsIdolCochrane Posted: August 29, 2018 at 04:52 AM (#5735315)
I hate to be a contrarian here and maybe an a*****e (maybe I don't hate it that much) but the triple crown has always been defined as LEADING the league in all 3 categories. Leading means being AHEAD of everybody else. Yaz did not LEAD the league in HRs so how could he have truly won the triple crown? Put it this way. If Yaz won the triple crown then Ray Charles has "led" MLB in unassisted triple plays for the last 8 seasons. Sounds ridiculous. But words and definitions have meaning. "Lead" is very different than "Lead or tied for the lead". The triple crown could have been defined as that. It never was. So, 8 triple crown winners. (Sorry Ducky Joe.)
   16. Lest we forget Posted: August 29, 2018 at 06:31 AM (#5735317)
I agree: it's not the same thing. An article here on MLB.com

https://www.mlb.com/news/a-look-at-baseballs-triple-crown-winners/c-129048700

writes:

"1967 -- Carl Yastrzemski, Boston Red Sox (AL): In the year before 1968's "Year of the Pitcher," Yastrzemski won the second of his three batting titles (.326) while leading the league in homers (44) and RBIs (121) for the only time in his 23 seasons." No mention even of the tie!!

It's also a bit weak to exclude Cobb and Lajoie on the grounds that RBI were not an official statistic at the time.
   17. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 29, 2018 at 08:34 AM (#5735335)
I think that sportswriters blew their collective wad on the 2012 MVP vote. "First triple crown in XX years!!!!" This year, the better player has a better chance at winning it.


I think the fact that they are teammates works in Mookie's favor also. In 2012 Cabrera's Tigers won a relatively close division race while Trout's Angels missed the (then newly-expanded) playoffs so it was a combination of narratives working against Trout.

I had no problem with Cabrera winning. The Triple Crown has always had a place in baseball lore (admittedly I've always personally loved it) so seeing Cabrera get that additional recognition didn't and doesn't bother me. If things stay as they are and JDM wins the Triple Crown I'd be cool with him being MVP even if his WAR is far below Mookie and Trout.
   18. DavidFoss Posted: August 29, 2018 at 08:45 AM (#5735339)
It's also a bit weak to exclude Cobb and Lajoie on the grounds that RBI were not an official statistic at the time.

Maybe it has to do with Heinie Zimmerman? Denied the Triple Crown at the time, researchers going back and re-counting the RBI's appear to have given him the RBI title which previously was thought to belong to Honus Wagner. As a history nerd, I like this stuff, but some casual fans get annoyed when these things change decades after the fact.
   19. BDC Posted: August 29, 2018 at 09:24 AM (#5735369)
the potential 11 in order of 'greatness'


I read this as ranking the individual Triple Crown seasons. By bWAR, most of them are awesome, naturally. The highest is Yaz with 12.5; several others are above 10. Jimmie Foxx at 9.2 is in the lower half.

The lowest is Cabrera at 7.1. Oddly enough this is not particularly because of his defense in 2012. Cabrera held his own at third base that year and had a respectable -0.2 dWAR. The 7.1 is more because it was a mild off-year for Cabrera. He had better batting averages the year before and after, and drew a lot more walks before and after, too. His OPS+ of 164 was only the fifth-best of his career. But things aligned for him to win the TC.

Klein had 7.5 in his TC season (weak defense, only 28 HR, 56 walks); and Frank Robinson had 7.7 (-2 dWAR that year).

Medwick was at 8.5, and it looks like Martinez will get to about 8 bWAR at his current rate.
   20. BDC Posted: August 29, 2018 at 09:37 AM (#5735376)
WTHeck, sorry, it would have been easy enough to post the full list:

1967 Yastrzemski 12.5
1956 Mantle 11.3
1942 Williams 10.6
1934 Gehrig 10.4
1925 Hornsby 10.2
1922 Hornsby 10.0
1947 Williams 9.9
1933 Foxx 9.2
1937 Medwick 8.5
1966 Robinson 7.7
1933 Klein 7.5
2012 Cabrera 7.1
   21. MuttsIdolCochrane Posted: August 29, 2018 at 11:05 AM (#5735430)
That's too full. Yaz and Ducky off the list.

WTHeck, sorry, it would have been easy enough to post the full list:

1967 Yastrzemski 12.5
1956 Mantle 11.3
1942 Williams 10.6
1934 Gehrig 10.4
1925 Hornsby 10.2
1922 Hornsby 10.0
1947 Williams 9.9
1933 Foxx 9.2
1937 Medwick 8.5
1966 Robinson 7.7
1933 Klein 7.5
2012 Cabrera 7.1
   22. BDC Posted: August 29, 2018 at 11:08 AM (#5735432)
Hey, this BBTF. No list is ever big enough :)
   23. Lest we forget Posted: August 29, 2018 at 12:40 PM (#5735494)
Nah, I was thinking about HOF and career and all-time wow, not the individual seasons.

But good input to see the list of the individual seasons :-)
   24. SoSH U at work Posted: August 29, 2018 at 12:58 PM (#5735509)

I hate to be a contrarian here and maybe an a*****e (maybe I don't hate it that much) but the triple crown has always been defined as LEADING the league in all 3 categories. Leading means being AHEAD of everybody else. Yaz did not LEAD the league in HRs so how could he have truly won the triple crown? Put it this way. If Yaz won the triple crown then Ray Charles has "led" MLB in unassisted triple plays for the last 8 seasons. Sounds ridiculous. But words and definitions have meaning. "Lead" is very different than "Lead or tied for the lead". The triple crown could have been defined as that. It never was. So, 8 triple crown winners. (Sorry Ducky Joe.)


Fortunately, this minority opinion has never been the governing principle. Yaz was always considered a Triple Crown winner, as he should have been. Under your definition, nobody led the league in homers in 1967, which is far more ridiculous than allowing that co-leaders led.

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