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Tuesday, July 17, 2018

J.D. Martinez open to making more permanent relationship with Red Sox | WEEI

Let’s enjoy the rest of this season, next season, and get Mookie signed before we worry about getting J.D. extended.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 17, 2018 at 02:50 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: j.d. martinez, red sox

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   1. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: July 17, 2018 at 03:31 PM (#5711350)
Way too early to be discussing an extension.
   2. Itchy Row Posted: July 17, 2018 at 03:34 PM (#5711355)
The headline makes it sound like they have a relationship that should be none of our business.
   3. vortex of dissipation Posted: July 17, 2018 at 05:11 PM (#5711448)
The headline makes it sound like they have a relationship that should be none of our business.


It's the first time I've ever thought of J.D. Martinez and Vanessa Bell simultaneously.
   4. QLE Posted: July 17, 2018 at 05:32 PM (#5711464)
The headline makes it sound like they have a relationship that should be none of our business.


But will nevertheless make it to the front page of the Boston Herald one of these days.....
   5. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 17, 2018 at 06:18 PM (#5711495)
Let’s enjoy the rest of this season, next season, and get Mookie signed before we worry about getting J.D. extended.


Agree. I've no idea what you would even offer Mookie at this stage? He's one of the 5 best players in all of MLB, he's young and does everything insanely well. He has a skillset that would seem to age incredibly well and can still play CF if needed. Maybe the Sox can offer him 8/250 type of thing with some opt outs and go from there?? I've really no idea

I like Martinez and the production is genuine as he's been doing it now for nearly 4 years. He's only 30, but you really need serious production(which is what the Sox are getting) from a pure DH to justify a hefty salary. Is he going to be better then Cruz or EE at similar ages? Or even attain the lofty heights of Edgar or Ortiz? Probably not Edgar or Ortiz as he doesn't walk enough to match the OBP skills of the latter 2.
   6. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: July 17, 2018 at 07:17 PM (#5711517)
Don’t you offer Mookie some version of the Altuve deal with a couple extra years to make up for Betts being younger? Similar caliber and style player, seems like it’s a pretty good start point. Haggle over some of the this and that but I think that gets you there.
   7. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: July 17, 2018 at 07:59 PM (#5711558)
They have extensions for Sale and Mookie looming. JD is a great player but he's behind them obviously in any sort of urgency.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: July 17, 2018 at 10:08 PM (#5711687)
Don’t you offer Mookie some version of the Altuve deal with a couple extra years to make up for Betts being younger? Similar caliber and style player, seems like it’s a pretty good start point. Haggle over some of the this and that but I think that gets you there.

Huh, I missed news on the Altuve extension. They already had him under contract for 2018-19 for $12.5 -- I'll get back to that later but main point right now is to start by looking at the un-controlled years. That's 5/$130 plus a $21 M signing bonus, covering ages 30-34. That's a hefty contract.

Betts is in a somwehat stronger bargaining position. Sox have two years of control left, same as Altuve, but Betts 1st arb year costs $10.5 M. Given the awesome performance this year, he's looking at a big raise. He's likely looking at at least $40 M over the next 2 years in arb. Altuve was stuck at $12.5 M and therefore had incentive to give the Astros a "break" on the 5-year extension part ... and he still got $150 M out of them for that. The Red Sox don't really have that leverage. So an Altuve equivalent for Betts would probably be something like 7/$190 vs 7/$164 for Altuve.

And it will probably require an opt-out as suggested. 7 years would make Betts an FA again entering his age 33 season, a terrible time to be entering FA.

So maybe something like $5 bonus, 15/20/30/30/30/30/30 with an opt-out after year 4. Seems a decent place to start. But he's still got an argument to insist on more. Trout is already at $34, Miggy at $32 and Stanton averages over $30 in those same 5 calendar years (with another $64 M still to come). Me might want to see what Machado/Harper get before signing -- or maybe he doesn't if they're going to get underwhelming offers. But $30 in his FA years might be a little low even with the opt-out.

So we may be in Stanton territory, give or take. If you don't backload too much, you shouldn't have to give the age 37 season and buyout but that's pretty strictly a financial matter. So 10-11 years with an opt-out or two halfway through, probably peaking around a $34-36 AAV, seems possible. That really opens all the tough aging questions -- defense, power but not (usually) awesome power, speed/BABIP. I'm pretty confident, seems to me that he should be at least as good as say Puckett and probably as good as Torii Hunter in his early-mid 30s and if that's the downside/expectation, the 30-40 WAR he produces in the first 6-7 years of the deal sounds very nice.

   9. Walt Davis Posted: July 17, 2018 at 10:17 PM (#5711691)
JD is a great player but he's behind them obviously in any sort of urgency.

For sure but he's also probably a pretty easy deal to get done that doesn't require a substantial increase in resource commitment. Financially, he only makes a difference to Betts/Sale if he does well enough to leave which is an odd bet to make. They can only extend those two this offseason under an assumption they're still going to owe JDM another 3/$63. If he ends up leaving, fine that gives them money to spend on other people.

Which still means it primarily reduces to whether his recent performance has changed their minds about his future prospects. I'll WAG an extra $15-20 over the next 4 years will let them keep him for sure for 2020-22. If they're still sufficiently uncertain they want that, then they don't make an offer. But it won't really affect their decisions on Sale/Betts nor their ability to get those deals done.
   10. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: July 19, 2018 at 09:24 AM (#5712446)
I would really like the Sox to sign Mookie for his entire career, but I will be surprised if he doesn't go to FA. He just seems very interested in the whole process - he's gone through two seemingly no-hard-feelings-arbitration disputes the last two years, maybe it's just a front and he's been getting upset with the team FO, but from what he's said publicly it's almost more of a curiosity thing than a money thing (I am sure it's the $$$). I do think he'd be more willing to sign with the Sox, and if they let him sign elsewhere I will be very bummed.

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