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1. Esoteric throws a 'hard slider' Posted: September 08, 2012 at 08:24 PM (#4230512)I still have faith in the brain trust. They and I disagreed on the strategy for this past offseason but it's also true that given what Pujols and Prince ended up costing, I probably wouldn't have signed them either. Once you decide not to sign one of those two guys, I don't have a major problem with blowing the whole thing up. My main problem this offseason was with (a) fans who didn't see the value in Pujols or (shorter-term) Fielder; (b) fans who fall for the false dichotomy of "if you're not really really good, you might as well totally suck"; (c) fans who are naive enough to think this is a 2-year rebuild and the Cubs can be good again in 2014.
I don't think the FO falls into (c). I am worried that the FO didn't see the draft/international changes coming and had overly high expectations of what the FA market will look like over the next 4-5 years. Those put a significant constraint on any rebuilding efforts. I wasn't expecting such substantial changes but then I don't have access to the people sitting in the negotiation room or the MLB strategy sessions. So, I think they intended a 4-year rebuild through the draft and international signings -- but it's hard to see how they do that now. Which Theo (or Jed) basically said sometime shortly after the new rules were announced.
Where I suspect I may be in long-term disagreement with the FO (or at least the owners) is (b). Assuming no Garza/DeJesusS/Soriano trades and plugging in some arb salary guesses, the Cubs payroll for 2013 currently stands at about $55 M for a talent level of maybe 60-65 wins. They damn well better spend some of that money on some decent players. I would have been willing to put up with some truly horrible seasons if the Cubs were dominating the draft and international market. But I don't see how any team can dominate those markets now (maybe I just don't understand the loopholes) so short-term sucking only helps get a better draft pick but all the payroll savings go straight to Ricketts.
Cuban defectors and Japanese players can still be freely bid on. Hard to build a team waiting for the right guy to defect though.
If you mean that the bonuses don't apply to the international player pool amount, I think that is incorrect for the Cuban players, who are considered amateurs. Puig was in a hurry to sign this past summer in order to get his bonus before the CBA rules for signing international players began.
Cuban players over 23 are considered pros.
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