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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Attention geeks that never played the game (this means you Amsinger!)...scroll down for some pitching/life tips by Jenkins
One of the really tired laments of recent years—“Why does anyone pitch to Barry Bonds?—has been resurrected in the case of Albert Pujols. Yo, all you geeks who never played the game: They pitch to Pujols (watch Tim Lincecum tonight) because athletes compete. Will they make terrible mistakes? You bet. Will they regret throwing Pujols a 3-1 fastball when they could have just pitched around him? Absolutely. It’s just that big-league baseball isn’t about quitting, wimping out, taking the easy route. Runners at second and third, one out? Of course you walk Pujols, or Bonds, or Willie McCovey. But when you can change the momentum of a ballgame, making it clear that you and your team matter, you go right after the guy. He’s not hitting .831. He makes outs, a good deal of the time, just like everyone else. Play the game hard, or just quit. And don’t listen to the idiots who, if they had their way, would see not a single strike thrown to Pujols all year . . .
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1. regfairfield Posted: June 30, 2009 at 01:47 PM (#3237601)I have two issues at the moment with this phrase;
1. Aren't these the people likely reading this and other articles? Do people like Jenkins think insulting their readers is a wise decision?
2. Not to nitpick but like many people here I DID play the game. I played a lot as a kid. When I turned 15 I stopped because I wasn't good enough to make my high school team. I would love to know how much more baseball than me Bruce Jenkins and his ilk played because I suspect that most of these people did not play any more baseball than I did.
EDIT: Coke to Shooty
Also, who is advocating this? Surely a talent like Bruce Jenkins wouldn't stoop to a strawman argument. And when Buck Showalter walked Bonds with the bases loaded, was he a geek, too? Like all great writers, Bruce Jenkins work inspires questions. And wonder. Don't forget the wonder!
I've always been in this boat. I made my HS varsity team as a freshman, played 4 years. Played 2 years of American legion. Had offers to try out at small colleges, but decided to go to VT for the education. So I know I played more ball than most of these writers who categorize me as a "baseball nerd".
sorry not sure how that happened
This is freaky. You could be me, except the ag school I went to was in Oklahoma.
I went to an ag school to study Computer engineering though, haha. Not sure if that is in line with your college choices.
What positions did you play? I made the Varisty team as a catcher, moved to 3b my sophomore year, and played 3b/1b the rest of my HS days.
You really might be me. I caught until I was 12 when I was diagnosed with diabetes. Docs told me not to catch anymore, which is a shame because it is the position I had the natural speed for (seriously, I have the build and had a really good arm and am turtle slow)*, so I moved to third. And played some first. I also pitched a good deal.
I should know this, as I teach in the ACC, but how are the Hokies in baseball?**
* Favorite baseball memory: one hot, sticky, July night I make my way to third base. Our coach comes up to me, puts a hand on my shoulder and leans in close. In a whisper, he says, "Paul, listen carefully," I start to imagine a squeeze or some other devious, cunning plan. He continues, "I expect you to score on a triple."
** Much better than Wake Forest, I'm sure.
His tone suggests that in his mind, the latter is implicit in the former.
It's doubly hilarious given that the true "geeks" are the ones who would argue exactly the opposite, and show you a study to back up why.
Particularly given that Lincecum proceeded to strike Pujols out, making him look silly in the process.
It was my opinion, often presented on this site, that during that ridiculous 2001-2004 stretch, opponents overdid the "just walk Bonds" approach, that they were on balance helping the Giants' offense by providing Bonds with such an otherworldly OBP. Great as he was, force him to swing the bat and you retired Bonds more than 60% of the time. Same with Pujols.
Clearly, it makes all sense to walk a guy like this later in the game, in a situation where one of his bombs will be a game-changer. But to give away 60%+ chances for outs in non-crucial situations is a dumb idea.
There's a new team in Rosarito that wants to come up to a profesional Mexican League (They are still figuring out if it's the Golden league or Mexican Pacific League or the Mexican Summer League) they want me to tryout this coming month.
Great point.
Secondly, I played college baseball. And these "geeks who never played the game" have taught me more about the game than I could possibly teach them. My appreciation and enjoyment of the game has increased 10 fold over the last 10-12 years largely because of these geeks and I thank them for it.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl/player_search.cgi?search=bruce+jenkins
What?!?!?!
21: Very cool! Good luck!
At last. You know how they tell you growing up that there is always someone more misfortunate than you. Finally, I found the someone whom I could beat in a footrace.
as a guy who has probably watched 90% of Alberts plate appearances this year, I can tell you that Al Hrabosky, Rick Horton, Mike Shannon, Whitey Herzog, Ozzie Smith, Joe Morgan and others that I can't think of right now, have all asked the same question in one form or another. (not to mention actions by several managers who do avoid pitching to Pujols---see Leyland)
beyond that, the guys general point does stand. They do pitch to Pujols because to do otherwise is not in their blood.
Not to mention leading in dozens that haven't even been invented yet.
I seem to recall one of the guys involved with the Book running a similar study -- and coming up with specific recommendations on when to issue the IBB to Bonds.
But here's the thing: it very likely is "in their blood," a deeply-embedded competitive drive, to pitch to Pujols. But it's also the right thing to do sabermetrically (in non-crucial situations, of course, and no one's arguing otherwise about that). Jenkins sets up a false tension between what the real-man jocks want to do and what the never-played-the-game geeks want to do, when no such thing exists.
I agree. In addition, I can't argue that they shouldn't, either. To me the only times they shouldn't is in high-leverage situations (e.g. tie game late, runners at 2nd & 3rd, etc). He is the greatest hitter in the game right now, yet he still gets a hit only 35% of the time. Statistically, that means you pitch to him unless the hit he might get would be huge.
And I can't help but wonder if the guy is juicing. He looks just like McGwire now. I'm not accusing him of anything; I'm just worried that he'll eventually be outed.
I think Baseball Prospectus ran a bunch of simulations where they surrounded him with below-replacement-level players.
Walking him every time was a HUGE mistake.
And Bill James presented such a study, I believe in the New Historical Abstract, in which he simmed Babe Ruth 1921 batting in a lineup of a bunch of replacement-level stiffs.
The conclusion of every such study is that unless the rest of the lineup bats .000 or something damn close to it, it is definitely sub-optimal to walk Ruth/Bonds/Pujols every time up. A 1.000 OBP is a damn powerful offensive weapon; it just doesn't make sense to hand it to your opponent.
EDIT: I'll be buying some cokes myself ...
I agree, not defending his ridiculous article, just defending the concept of not walking Pujols, and that even in times when it's probably best to walk him, that the pitcher doesn't because that is not their nature. Right now the Cardinals have no bats performing behind Pujols, and no other bats in the lineup. (Schumaker has had a good last two weeks, and Ludwick has looked better recently but is still not getting results--long flyouts mostly) There is almost zero consequences if they walk Albert everytime he comes to the plate, the team seems to only have one inning per game where they might even have a multi hit inning. but if they walked him everytime, the odds will eventually catch up to the team.
and Jenkins not played baseball concept is always silly no matter which writer writes it, have you seen some of these writers? is there really any sports journalist out there that have played ball at any level? I'll take a team composed of primates to play the best that the BBWAA could offer and I don't think the game would be close, the Primates would destroy them.
Hey, don't forget Ryan Franklin--top ERA among MLB relievers. No, really. And Joel Pineiro's been at least as good as Wainwright this year. No, really.
But, yeah, their non-Pujols offense is a disaster.
The study I linked to analyzed 367,416 game states with the Giants batting and found that an IBB was correct 4978 times. And of those, only 1604 were IBBs to Bonds (and the author did talk about the first inning IBB. Unless the Giants were already up by at least 5 runs, there was no situation where an IBB was a good decision)
This doesn't specifically address the "how bad" question, but it does provide a framework.
I recall doing a quick and dirty study and coming to the conclusion that if the hitter after Bonds was just a little worse than Glenallen Hill then the IBB would be a viable decision much of the time. Catch being that I don't recall the specifics of "much" (beyond almost any time there was an open base)
and me i am getting damm tired of jenkins and his little media friends complaining about how Us People didn't never play baseball
WELL IF YOU SEXIST SKUM DIDN'T BAN US FROM THE GAME WE WOULD BE OUT THERE PLAYING BASEBALL LIKE WE DID BACK IN THOSE GOOD OL DAYS YOU WEREN'T AROUND FOR THAT YOU MISSIN SO BAD!!!!! you know. the rule sez no bat, no balls, no play. so what is YER excuse????
HMMMMMMMMM????!!!
now where was i before i got oh so pissed off before i climbed outten that basement in my mama house????
oh yeah
about Uncle
yeh, he really IS that good. that said, it isn't a good idea to pitch to the SOB with the game on the line because that self same SOB gonna hurt you bad. trust me on this. i been watching him 18-25 times a year since he come up and beat out Roy-oswalt for the ROY back in 01 and even then i knew it was bad BAD luck him being with the cards
Just shy of the halfway mark, he is batting .330 with 29 HRs and 75 RBI.
If St. Louis makes the post season again, who would his competition be for the MVP? Who would the writers turn to, to avoid honoring Pujols this time?
And out of curiosity, does anybody know how St. Louie is drawing on the road? Are people coming out the park for the opportunity to see El Hombre? If not, WHAT IS WRONG WITH THEM!!!
yep, that is more accurate. Wright may have a chance, Chipper seems to be pretty good. Ibanez is having a career year. Fielder is within easy distance to take the rbi title and that is all that is needed.
If the Mets don't make it to October, I don't see them giving it to him, especially since his power numbers are in the crapper.
Chipper seems to be pretty good
His BA is down lately, and he already has one award.
Ibanez is having a career year.
He's a possible spoiler, yeah since the Phils will probably make the post-season.
Fielder is within easy distance to take the rbi title and that is all that is needed
If the Brewers squeeze past the Cards into the play-offs, and he keeps up the pace and grabs the RBI crown, he could be a spoiler too.
Of course, if Albert tops 60 HR this year, I think he gets the "Clean HR King Crown", and the MVP with it.
No, this is not a delayed double post.
.332, 30 HR, 77 RBI -- you don't really need the sabermetric stats to realize he is having a monster year.
and of course leading the national league in rbis, homeruns, runs scored, obp, slg, and ops and probably top 5 in batting average.
Hey -- you don't suppose he knows we've been talking about him today? ;-0
Avg: he's 5th right now. Take a look at the top 10 in the NL. Sandoval could win the title, Wright has a bad k% and a fluky BABIP. I'll pass on Beltran, Tejada, Pierre, Hawpe & Guzman.
HR: To me this was always the toughest category for the triple crown for him because while he has power, there has always been Dunn, Howard, Fielder, insert big LH slugger here. He seems to be pulling out to an early lead here.
RBI: Again running out ahead of the pack. Fielder & Howard have the better hitters in front of them though.
So where is Jenkins with the outrage? I expect him down on the field, screaming that Romo is a girly-man who lives in his mama's basement.
of course the Cardinals team has to start doing something in front and behind him. (and of course if he could get the grand slam? triple crown plus runs scored title it would be nice)
So where is Jenkins with the outrage? I expect him down on the field, screaming that Romo is a girly-man who lives in his mama's basement.
it wasn't an intentional walk so it's ok.
I have been waiting for Miguel Cabrera to join that conversation. Waiting in the sense of investing way too much money in Migguey cards and memorabilia a few year ago. He certainly has all the natural talents to do it, but now I doubt he'll ever enter the "Pujols-pantheon".
Utley has been great, but he will be splitting votes after Howard inevitably heats up and if Ibanez does anything in the second half.
Braun will have a power push too at some point and, if his .330ish average holds up at all, might look like a solid candidate too. But again, he'd be splitting votes with Fielder's gaudy ribbie count.
Hanley is having a very good year. If Florida doesn't collapse the media might fall in love with his candidacy.
If the Mets can somehow make the playoffs then Wright might get some bizarre "he sacrificed power to help the team win when everyone else on his team tanked it with injuries" type votes.
I can't believe I forgot him, the sob has been carrying my fantasy team (thanks to my own crappy picks, injuries and falling off the cliff for so many players that it still hasn't got me to a winning record) and every time it seems he may be cooling off he gets hot again.
Is he a natural 3B? I can't think of too many 3B as big as he is (246 lbs according to Yahoo!).
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