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Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Jeremy Affeldt to re-sign with Giants

Left-hander Jeremy Affeldt and the Giants agreed to terms on a three-year contract, a person familiar with the negotiations said Monday.

The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the deal had not been completed. Affeldt is expected to undergo a physical Tuesday in San Francisco, another person with knowledge of the situation said, and that is typically the final step in completing a contract.

CBS Sports reported that the deal is for $18 million over three seasons.

Affeldt, 33, went 1-2 with a 2.70 ERA in 67 appearances covering 63 1/3 innings this season for the World Series champions.

When the season ended, Affeldt said he wanted to stay with San Francisco but needed a multiyear deal to provide some security for his family; he has a wife and three young sons. Affeldt also was a key member of the bullpen during the club’s 2010 run to the franchise’s first championship since 1954.

Thanks to Chino.

Repoz Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:56 AM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: giants

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   1. Toothless Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:45 AM (#4301155)
Is it just me, or does $6 million a year seem like an awful lot for 63 IP? (Or did he earn it with that one super inning in the World Series?)
   2. ThisElevatorIsDrivingMeUpTheWall Posted: November 13, 2012 at 08:22 AM (#4301182)
I think it's a lot too. The question becomes does that set the market, or do teams say, we're not going in hock for a loogy.
   3. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: November 13, 2012 at 09:08 AM (#4301198)
Not to mention Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, and Santiago Casilla are also due for raises. That's going to be a lot of money to spend on a bullpen.
   4. JJ1986 Posted: November 13, 2012 at 09:19 AM (#4301206)
Wilson's probably going to get NT'd and signed to a smaller contract. I can't imagine he gets a raise.
   5. Most doorknobs are on the right side of the doors Posted: November 13, 2012 at 09:25 AM (#4301211)
1.2 WAR total over the last three years according to Baseball Reference, so yeah $6M a year sure seems like an overpay. But maybe WAR isn't fully capturing the tactical value of having him there to face lefties in high-leverage situations.
   6. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: November 13, 2012 at 09:52 AM (#4301224)
Wilson could certainly be non-tendered or traded, after making 8.5M this year. In any case, I think this is the first sign that money is about to get crazy stupid this winter.
   7. DL from MN Posted: November 13, 2012 at 09:56 AM (#4301227)
$6 million a year seem like an awful lot for 63 IP?

Versus $20M a year for 218 IP? It's on the high end of the scale but that's free agency.
   8. Nasty Nate Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:12 AM (#4301242)
I picture his agent leaping out of his chair saying "we'll take it" like Kramer getting free coffee...
   9. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4301318)
WAR isn't fully capturing the tactical value of having him there to face lefties in high-leverage situations.

This is my interpretation of the signing. It's hard for WAR to account for the tactical value for a pitcher like Affeldt, but I really don't see how WAR could accommodate that within its current framework, or if it even makes sense to considering how much Affeldt's success likely owes to Bochy's management of him. In any case, high end relievers don't come cheap, and I feel comfortable applying that label to Affeldt. On the other hand, I still think this is an overpay, especially considering Affeldt's age.

On a more personal note, I was just becoming a sabermetrically inclined baseball obsessive when Affeldt was a top prospect on the way up with the Royals. This is one of those "I feel old" moments.
   10. puck Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:18 AM (#4301326)
Does Bochy use him primarily as a LOOGY? He doesn't have a huge split. BB-ref has that stat for % of PA's with the platoon advantage, they're generally at or below the league average. Though I assume those league averages are skewed by starting pitchers.

Now Javier Lopez is on a 2 yr $8.5 million deal...that seems like a lot for a guy who really is a LOOGY.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4301667)
For relievers, WAR does incorporate leverage so it's picking up at least some of his "tactical value."

Anyway, hard to say. Over the last 6 years, Affeldt has thrown 374 innings of 137 ERA+ or 175/117 over the last 3 (his 2010 was not very good). 1-2 seasons of that sort of production on the starting pitcher market is gonna cost you at least $18 M and probably a lot more. On the other hand, they're paying him for about 1 WAR per year and he's been below that. Still, if he gives them 180 innings of 130ish ERA+, they'll be perfectly happy with this contract.

And, as much as I hate to say it, don't diss those 60 IP. Only 84 relievers had 60+ IP last year and, in that group, Affeldt's ERA+ was 48th. Make it 2010-12 and 180+ IP and Affeldt profiles as somewhere around the 25th to 40th best reliever over that time period. Unless you believe that all non-Mariano relievers are a crap shoot (a viewpoint I'm somewhat sympathetic to), he's about as good as you're gonna find. Still, given his age, I'm a bit surprised at 3 years.

His WAR over the last 3 years is so low in part because he kinda stunk in 2010 while he was ridiculously good in 2009. Here are his ERA+s if you go back 1, 2, 3, etc. years:

1 130
2 131 (i.e. this is the average of 2011-12)
3 117
4 139
5 137
6 137

Alternatively you could split that up into 2 "starter" seasons with the first one being 200 IP of 155 ERA+ and the second 170 IP of 117. I'm guessing most of us would be willing to roll the dice on that starter.

I think his true talent is above the straight average of his last 3 years -- I'm roughly pegging him at about a 130 ERA+. Over those 6 years, he has 5.5 WAR or 2.9 WAA which is in the ballpark of what he's being paid to do.
   12. Steve Treder Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:51 PM (#4301701)
Does Bochy use him primarily as a LOOGY?

Not by today's standards, no. Probably the best description of his usage pattern would be Setup Man, but he's also a guy Bochy likes to go to if he needs multiple innings in an extra-inning game.
   13. shoewizard Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:26 PM (#4301815)
David Cameron correctly projected a jump in reliever salary as a result of CBA changes.

Relief pitchers are the other area where we’ll likely see significant change in strategy due to the new compensation rules. Because the Elias rating drastically overvalued relievers, they made up a disproportionate number of Type A and B free agents who received arbitration offers, as teams could essentially treat their bullpens as revolving doors and get numerous additional prospects as a result. The qualifying offer is going to remove compensation from every middle reliever in the sport, which may drive salaries up for some of the guys who have previously come with the loss of a draft pick for their new teams. It might be hard to believe now, but in 2010, the Tigers gave the Astros the 19th pick in the draft for the right to sign Jose Valverde. How much more would he have gotten had that loss of a pick not been a factor? We may find out this winter.

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