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Thursday, January 10, 2019

Jeren Kendall, Buddy Reed And The Fourth Outfielder “Floor”

Inspired in part by Kendall and Reed, I looked at every player who served as a reserve or platoon outfielder in the majors the last four seasons (2015-18).

Short version: the average major league reserve outfielder hit .283/.357/.439 in his minor league career. Barely any hit below .260 or had a on-base percentage below .325.

At present, Kendall is a career .225/.303/.380 hitter in the minors and has yet to play above A-ball. Reed is closer, but he still falls below the average with a .256/.311/.403 career slash line.

Through the end of the 2018 season, based on precedent, neither crosses the minimum threshold of offensive production needed to actually project as a reserve or platoon outfielder in the majors.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 10, 2019 at 01:08 PM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: draft

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   1. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2019 at 02:13 PM (#5804211)
Kendall's swing is broken, and he isn't going to improve until he reworks it.
   2. bfan Posted: January 10, 2019 at 02:37 PM (#5804227)
Reed had phenomenal success at one level; dreadful failure at the next level. I hope for his sake he did not find his true ceiling.
   3. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: January 10, 2019 at 02:55 PM (#5804236)
Had to look up if he is the son of Jason Kendall. Answer: No
   4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2019 at 03:02 PM (#5804242)
Reed had phenomenal success at one level; dreadful failure at the next level.


It's usually not a great sign when a guy's one good offensive season is in the Cal League.
   5. BrianBrianson Posted: January 10, 2019 at 03:07 PM (#5804245)
Had to look up if he is the son of Jason Kendall. Answer: No


You can tell because he's a Dodger's prospect, not a Blue Jays' prospect.
   6. KJOK Posted: January 10, 2019 at 10:06 PM (#5804400)
You can tell because he's a Dodger's prospect, not a Blue Jays' prospect.
Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Scott Van Slyke - Dodgers have had a few too...

   7. bobm Posted: January 11, 2019 at 01:47 AM (#5804432)
the average major league reserve outfielder hit .283/.357/.439 in his minor league career.


What did the average major league reserve outfielder hit in the majors 2015-2018?

Also FTFA:

A player qualified for our sample if they received between 200-400 plate appearances in a season—the range of a backup or platoon player—while primarily playing in the outfield. To control for starters who fell into the 200-400 plate appearance range due to injury, all players who started at least 90 percent of their games that season were removed.
   8. bobm Posted: January 11, 2019 at 02:04 AM (#5804434)
I am not going to remove the starters, because it is not so easy with B-R PI, but removing the top players by OPS+ still shows unsurprisingly that reserve outfielders do not seem like great hitters. Otherwise this list seems similar to that in TFA.

For Single Seasons, From 2015 to 2018, Active Players, Played at least 50% of games at LF, CF or RF, (requiring PA>=200, PA<=400 and OPS+>=0), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+

                                                     
Rk                Player OPS+  PA Year   BA  OBP  SLG
1           Rhys Hoskins  165 212 2017 .259 .396 .618
2      Giancarlo Stanton  159 318 2015 .265 .346 .606
3            Trea Turner  142 324 2016 .342 .370 .567
4          Jose Martinez  134 307 2017 .309 .379 .518
5         Randal Grichuk  134 350 2015 .276 .329 .548
6        Yoenis Cespedes  132 321 2017 .292 .352 .540
7          Matthew Joyce  132 293 2016 .242 .403 .463
8      Enrique Hernandez  131 218 2015 .307 .346 .490
9          Franmil Reyes  130 285 2018 .280 .340 .498
10        Kyle Schwarber  130 273 2015 .246 .355 .487
11      Stephen Piscotty  130 256 2015 .305 .359 .494
12          Tyler Naquin  128 365 2016 .296 .372 .514
13     Lonnie Chisenhall  126 270 2017 .288 .360 .521
14        Austin Jackson  126 318 2017 .318 .387 .482
15          Jesse Winker  125 334 2018 .299 .405 .431
16           Jorge Soler  124 257 2018 .265 .354 .466
17       Robbie Grossman  124 389 2016 .280 .386 .443
18        Jake Marisnick  122 259 2017 .243 .319 .496
19           Aaron Hicks  122 361 2017 .266 .372 .475
20           Jose Pirela  122 344 2017 .288 .347 .490
21        Derek Dietrich  122 289 2015 .256 .346 .456
22           Chris Young  121 227 2016 .276 .352 .498
23         Matt Holliday  121 277 2015 .279 .394 .410
24        Howie Kendrick  119 334 2017 .315 .368 .475
25    Jackie Bradley Jr.  119 255 2015 .249 .335 .498
26          Hunter Pence  119 223 2015 .275 .327 .478
27        Cameron Maybin  118 391 2016 .315 .383 .418
28       Corey Dickerson  118 234 2015 .304 .333 .536
29         Brandon Guyer  117 345 2016 .266 .372 .423
30         Brandon Guyer  116 385 2015 .265 .359 .413
31           Denard Span  116 275 2015 .301 .365 .431
32         Gregor Blanco  115 372 2015 .291 .368 .413
33            Adam Eaton  114 370 2018 .301 .394 .411
34            David Dahl  113 271 2018 .273 .325 .534
35         Nick Williams  113 343 2017 .288 .338 .473
36            David Dahl  113 237 2016 .315 .359 .500
37         Brandon Nimmo  112 215 2017 .260 .379 .418
38        Alex Dickerson  112 285 2016 .257 .333 .455
39             Wil Myers  112 253 2015 .253 .336 .427
40           Chad Pinder  111 333 2018 .258 .332 .436
41             Jake Cave  110 309 2018 .265 .313 .473
42           Yasiel Puig  110 311 2015 .255 .322 .436
43             Wil Myers  109 343 2018 .253 .318 .446
44           Chris Young  109 356 2015 .252 .320 .453
45             Tony Kemp  108 295 2018 .263 .351 .392
46      Michael Brantley  108 375 2017 .299 .357 .444
47       Domingo Santana  108 281 2016 .256 .345 .447
48          Keon Broxton  107 244 2016 .242 .354 .430
49           Eric Thames  106 278 2018 .219 .306 .478
50             Ben Gamel  106 293 2018 .272 .358 .370
51         Mikie Mahtook  105 379 2017 .276 .330 .457
52         Brian Goodwin  105 278 2017 .251 .313 .498
53         Jose Bautista  104 399 2018 .203 .348 .378
54     Jeremy Hazelbaker  104 224 2016 .235 .295 .480
55          Alex Presley  103 264 2017 .314 .354 .416
56           Jorge Soler  103 264 2016 .238 .333 .436
57      Alejandro De Aza  103 365 2015 .262 .333 .422
58           Rajai Davis  103 370 2015 .258 .306 .440
59         Leonys Martin  102 353 2018 .255 .323 .425
60         Melky Cabrera  102 278 2018 .280 .335 .420
61         Ichiro Suzuki  102 365 2016 .291 .354 .376
62        Preston Tucker  102 323 2015 .243 .297 .437
63         Albert Almora  101 323 2017 .298 .338 .445
64        Scott Schebler  101 282 2016 .265 .330 .432
65         Tyler Collins  101 207 2015 .266 .316 .417
66           Chad Pinder  100 309 2017 .238 .292 .457
67      Ezequiel Carrera  100 325 2017 .282 .356 .408
68         Shin-Soo Choo   99 210 2016 .242 .357 .399
69           Yasiel Puig   98 368 2016 .263 .323 .416
70               Jon Jay   98 374 2016 .291 .339 .389
71           Aaron Hicks   98 390 2015 .256 .323 .398
72          Joey Rickard   97 230 2018 .244 .300 .413
73       Domingo Santana   97 235 2018 .265 .328 .412
74          Leury Garcia   97 326 2017 .270 .316 .423
75        Avisail Garcia   96 385 2018 .236 .281 .438
76          Steve Pearce   96 348 2017 .252 .319 .438
77          Jarrod Dyson   96 337 2016 .278 .340 .388
78       Trayce Thompson   96 262 2016 .225 .302 .436
79         Dustin Ackley   96 264 2015 .231 .284 .429
80       Scott Van Slyke   96 253 2015 .239 .317 .383
81          Joc Pederson   95 323 2017 .212 .331 .407
82      Michael Conforto   95 348 2016 .220 .310 .414
83            Phil Ervin   93 247 2018 .252 .324 .404
84       Abraham Almonte   93 258 2015 .250 .310 .409
85             Jay Bruce   92 361 2018 .223 .310 .370
86              Ryan Rua   92 269 2016 .258 .331 .400
87     Enrique Hernandez   91 342 2017 .215 .308 .421
88         Eddie Rosario   91 354 2016 .269 .295 .421
89          Steve Pearce   91 325 2015 .218 .289 .422
90      Travis Jankowski   90 387 2018 .259 .332 .346
91           Matt Szczur   90 237 2017 .226 .350 .354
92          Byron Buxton   90 331 2016 .225 .284 .430
93        Cameron Maybin   89 384 2018 .249 .326 .336
94          Mallex Smith   89 282 2017 .270 .329 .355
95         Paulo Orlando   89 251 2015 .249 .269 .444
96          Leury Garcia   88 275 2018 .271 .303 .376
97           Matt Szczur   88 200 2016 .259 .312 .400
98         Matthew Joyce   87 246 2018 .208 .322 .353
99     Guillermo Heredia   87 337 2018 .236 .318 .342
100       Starling Marte   87 339 2017 .275 .333 .379
101         Joey Rickard   87 282 2016 .268 .319 .377
102     Kirk Nieuwenhuis   87 392 2016 .209 .324 .385
103          Chris Young   86 276 2017 .235 .322 .387
104           Brock Holt   86 324 2016 .255 .322 .383
105         Jarrod Dyson   86 225 2015 .250 .311 .380
106       Shane Peterson   86 226 2015 .259 .324 .353
107      Nicky Delmonico   85 318 2018 .215 .296 .373
108       Jake Marisnick   85 235 2018 .211 .275 .399
109      Jorge Bonifacio   85 270 2018 .225 .312 .360
110       Jake Marisnick   84 372 2015 .236 .281 .383
111         Jarrod Dyson   83 390 2017 .251 .324 .350
112         Mallex Smith   83 215 2016 .238 .316 .365
113       Austin Jackson   83 203 2016 .254 .318 .343
114     Ezequiel Carrera   83 310 2016 .248 .323 .356
115     Patrick Kivlehan   82 204 2017 .208 .304 .399
116        Peter Bourjos   81 383 2016 .251 .292 .389
117        Brandon Guyer   80 221 2018 .206 .300 .371
118      Kevin Kiermaier   80 367 2018 .217 .282 .370
119       Bradley Zimmer   80 332 2017 .241 .307 .385
120        Austin Slater   79 225 2018 .251 .333 .307
121           Jose Osuna   79 227 2017 .233 .269 .428
122         Johnny Field   78 233 2018 .222 .254 .403
123           Ben Revere   78 308 2017 .275 .308 .344
124        Peter Bourjos   78 203 2017 .223 .272 .383
125     Travis Jankowski   78 383 2016 .245 .332 .313
126     Steven Souza Jr.   77 272 2018 .220 .309 .369
127           Greg Allen   77 291 2018 .257 .310 .343
128       Jake Smolinski   77 319 2016 .238 .299 .345
129        Gregor Blanco   76 256 2017 .246 .337 .357
130        Ichiro Suzuki   76 215 2017 .255 .318 .332
131       Austin Jackson   75 375 2018 .245 .299 .326
132         Juan Lagares   75 272 2017 .250 .296 .365
133     Gorkys Hernandez   75 348 2017 .255 .327 .326
134        Domonic Brown   75 204 2015 .228 .284 .349
135          Rajai Davis   74 366 2017 .235 .293 .348
136          Ian Desmond   73 373 2017 .274 .326 .375
137        Mikie Mahtook   72 250 2018 .202 .276 .359
138      Rusney Castillo   72 289 2015 .253 .288 .359
139        Gregor Blanco   70 274 2016 .224 .309 .311
140    Michael A. Taylor   70 237 2016 .231 .278 .376
141        Peter Bourjos   70 225 2015 .200 .290 .333
142        Aaron Altherr   69 285 2018 .181 .295 .333
143    Michael A. Taylor   69 385 2018 .227 .287 .357
144           Cody Asche   69 218 2016 .213 .284 .350
145     Alejandro De Aza   68 267 2016 .205 .297 .321
146       Brandon Barnes   68 281 2015 .251 .314 .341
147        Dustin Fowler   67 203 2018 .224 .256 .354
148         Joey Rickard   67 277 2017 .241 .276 .345
149         Brett Eibner   67 208 2016 .193 .266 .353
150       Rosell Herrera   66 302 2018 .234 .286 .317
151        Chris Coghlan   65 300 2016 .188 .290 .318
152        Gerardo Parra   65 381 2016 .253 .271 .399
153          Aaron Hicks   65 361 2016 .217 .281 .336
154    Enrique Hernandez   64 244 2016 .190 .283 .324
155        Danny Santana   64 248 2016 .240 .279 .326
156         Hunter Pence   62 248 2018 .226 .258 .332
157       Jake Marisnick   62 311 2016 .209 .257 .331
158          Alen Hanson   61 234 2017 .221 .262 .346
159        Gregor Blanco   60 203 2018 .217 .262 .317
160        Rafael Ortega   60 202 2016 .232 .283 .292
161        Matthew Joyce   60 284 2015 .174 .272 .291
162        Dexter Fowler   59 334 2018 .180 .278 .298
163        Aaron Altherr   59 227 2016 .197 .300 .288
164     Michael Saunders   58 234 2017 .202 .256 .344
165     Delino DeShields   57 393 2018 .216 .310 .281
166        Allen Cordoba   56 227 2017 .208 .282 .297
167          Billy Burns   56 332 2016 .235 .271 .296
168              Jon Jay   56 245 2015 .210 .306 .257
169     Delino DeShields   55 203 2016 .209 .275 .313
170        Leonys Martin   55 310 2015 .219 .264 .313
171          Rajai Davis   52 216 2018 .224 .278 .281
172         Chris Owings   51 309 2018 .206 .272 .302
173             JB Shuck   50 241 2016 .205 .248 .299
174         Ramon Flores   49 289 2016 .205 .294 .261
175        Tyler Goeddel   47 234 2016 .192 .258 .291
176           Ben Revere   47 375 2016 .217 .260 .300
177         Jarrod Dyson   43 237 2018 .189 .282 .257
178         Victor Reyes   43 219 2018 .222 .239 .288
179           Adam Engel   39 336 2017 .166 .235 .282


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/11/2019.
   9. bbmck Posted: January 11, 2019 at 02:44 AM (#5804437)
66 players with at least one season of 200-400 PA, 90%+ of games at OF/1B/DH from 2015-2018. 49 have at least one career season with 2+ WAR, led by A-Rod with 18. The other 17 range from 3.5 to -2.3 career WAR in descending order: Albert Almora, Tyler Naquin, David Dahl, Franmil Reyes, Bradley Zimmer, Alex Dickerson, Ji-Man Choi, Nicky Delconico, Dae-ho Lee, Greg Bird, Adam Engel, Clint Robinson, Hyun Soo Kim, Dustin Fowler, Tommy Joseph, Tyler Goeddel and Cody Ashe.

Weighted by PA they have 91.6 OPS+, average 92.8, median Greg Bird 95
Weighted by PA they have -7.5 Rfield, average -5.5, median Tyler Goeddel -3
Weighted by PA they have 0.2 Rbaser+DP, average 0.1, median Dustin Fowler 0.0
Weighted by PA they have 0.2 WAR, average 0.4, median Dae-ho Lee 0.4

Collectively .248 BA, average .247, median Tommy Joseph .247
Collectively .311 OBP, average .311, median Nicky Delmonico .322
Collectively .408 SLG, average .410, median Albert Almora .412

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