Jerry Green (flips open wallet with pre-installed Ruth Chatterton photo intact) BBWAA Badge #2 at your service.
It is time for some logic, I say from my perch, long distance.
Presto — Rick Porcello just might make the highly qualified closer the Tigers are seeking.
He might — who knows? — be another Dennis Eckerlsey. A decent starting pitcher who suffered one poor season converted into a better than decent closer.
...Eckersley made it as a dominant closer when his fastball throttled down. His best pitch was a slider — the groundball pitch.
By coincidence, Porcello’s best pitch is his slider.
Once upon a time — the same year as Eckersley was being converted by La Russa’s logic into a Hall of Fame closer — the Tigers had a young pitcher of high promise in their farm system. They traded the kid away so they could win their division in September.
The trade worked. There was logic used. Doyle Alexander pitched the Tigers into the postseason playoffs.
But the Tigers are still hearing from the criticism crabs for trading away John Smoltz to the Braves.
Odd — many of the finest closers in the history of baseball entered the majors as starters, just like Eckersley. Among such pitchers were Hall of Famers Hoyt Wilhelm and Rollie Fingers, the great Rivera himself, and also Johnny Smoltz.
And even odder, there are just two pitchers in all the 137 years that professional baseball has been played who have won 20 games as starters and later saved 50 games as closers, in separate seasons.
Dennis Eckersley is one of these multi-talented athletes. John Smoltz — traded away by the Tigers in a deal still controversial 26 years later — is the other.
This one time a trial with Porcello is more logical than another trade.
Repoz
Posted: March 16, 2013 at 11:21 PM |
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1. flournoy Posted: March 17, 2013 at 12:22 AM (#4389705)That's not odd at all. Reliever is what you become, when you have failed at starting.
Mo has never started a Major League game in his career.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=riverma01&year=1995&t=p#sprel_extra
Cute, except for the small detail that the slider is Porcello's worst pitch, and he's been eliminating it this spring to throw his curve instead. Fangraphs has Porcello's slider being worth nearly 20 runs below average last season.
He's been excellent first time through the order; after that, not so much...
The problem is, both of these guys have too much potential as starting pitchers. I'd send one to Toledo. You usually need at least 6 SPs, and right now the other options are Shawn Hill or Duane Below. Try out a couple closer candidates in April, see who wins the job.
His dominance (split vs league split) seems to fluctuate and depend strongly on his BAbip against.
Rick Porcello Year-by-Year splits: 1st PA in G, as SP
I Year G PA SO/BB BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ 2009 31 276 2.67 .278 .320 .402 .722 .307 96 99 2010 27 245 3.38 .237 .278 .328 .605 .273 62 74 2011 31 285 2.30 .229 .291 .302 .593 .270 55 71 2012 31 279 2.47 .271 .313 .366 .679 .303 69 93 Career Total 120 1085 2.65 .254 .301 .350 .651 .289 70I thought that he was one of those guys who lost a few tics off of his fastball the minute he was drafted (See also Mike Pelfrey).
His velocity last season was his best ever in MLB. He averaged about 92 MPH.
Normally, it seems too easy to just look at the difference between Porcello's FIP and ERA the past few years and just say "His defense let him down." But as Double-Spin hits in the above, there are some compelling reasons to think his defense is a big part of the problem. In addition to his good peripherals, Porcello is regularly among the leaders in groundball percentage--52.3% for his career, and his 53.2% was #11 in the Majors last year. Then you look at who's in the field behind him--Cabrera, Peralta, Fielder, etc.--and wonder if the defensive stats are missing something there.
I think eventually the Tigers--or some lucky team that acquires Porcello--is going to be very happy with him.
Year G PA SO/BB BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
2009 31 276 2.67 .278 .320 .402 .722 .307 96 99
2010 27 245 3.38 .237 .278 .328 .605 .273 62 74
2011 31 285 2.30 .229 .291 .302 .593 .270 55 71
2012 31 279 2.47 .271 .313 .366 .679 .303 69 93
Career Total 120 1085 2.65 .254 .301 .350 .651 .289 70
Average OPS against for AL relievers
2009 .7352010 .720
2011 .707
2012 .685
His home park has been favorable to hitters so park adjustments shouldn't change the fact thathe's been more effective than the average reliever first time through the order every single year he's pitched. in 2010/2011 he was lights out.
Concur. I feel the same way about Phil Hughes. Get him into a less-homerific park, and I think he blossoms.
Actually, Porcello for Hughes probably makes both Det and NY better. They both fit much better in the other stadium.
This is the right answer.
If I had a good infield I'd call Dombrowski and see how cheaply Porcello could be pried loose.
Off the top of my head, the Royals have a pretty good defensive infield and a glut of relief pitchers--a deal both teams would like would be strikable there, if not for ZOMG CAN'T TRADE WITHIN MY DIVISION OR THE VOICES WILL FEAST ON MY BRAINS.
I'm puzzled by Escobar's horrible defensive numbers from 2012. He doesn't look that bad to me, and his reputation was that of good field, questionable hit before last year.
With two wild cards per season, I can see that mentality being reduced some eventually.
That and the Royals have a fairly decent-looking and fairly highly-paid rotation that they're not really looking to add to. I'd rather have Porcello than Chen but not if it means adding another $5 M to may payroll (that's the Royals "I" there).
Really? You wouldn't add a 2 WAR starter and dump a 0 WAR starter for $5M when you're on the edge of competition? Why the heck not?
Only because they continue to insist on giving a roster spot to the execrable Luke Hochevar, though. Releasing him, moving Chen to the bullpen to make room for an acquisition like Porcello would make perfect sense, assuming they haven't made any promises to Chen that he gets a rotation spot.
Someone's going to get hurt before long, anyway, and they'd be glad they had Chen on tap when it happens, too. Going into the season with six starters is not a bad thing.
Maybe. But Youkilis, Cano and Teixeira are pretty good to excellent.
Teixeira at this point is probably not much better than average defensively, if that. Youk is below average at third, and you are looking at Hip-Replacement-Rod back in there at some point. And you want to trade Cano.
The Fiedling Bible has Teixeira as the best defensive 1B in baseball. BRef (+26 cumulative the last 3 years) has him as excellent and UZR (+16 cum. last 3) has him as quite good.
Youk is below average at third, and you are looking at Hip-Replacement-Rod back in there at some point.
I'd guess they're still both better than Cabrera.
And you want to trade Cano.
I'm not the GM of the Yankees. That wouldn't be until July anyway.
The +26 is based on a huge outlier +20 season last year, which doesn't track at all with the 3 seasons prior to that, and doesn't pass the eye test. BRefs total zone has him at 4, 0 and 8 the past 3 years. Fangraphs is projecting him at about 4 runs. And he's coming off an injury.
Damning with faint praise. And your initial qualifier was "quite good to excellent".
So you want to trade assets for a half year of Porcello, in a season you want to tank anyway, in order to restock on assets. That makes no sense.
Porcello isn't FA eligible for three more years.
Yeah, but the stated reason for making the trade was the presence of the Yankees infield defense, which would blow up completely without Cano.
The Dodgers would probably be happy to send Mark Ellis back the Yankees' way.
Presumably the new, cheap, Yankee IF will at least be good defenders, even if they can't hit.
In any case, Hughes is gone after this year, so it's worth it even if the IF defense sucks.
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