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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Saturday, August 04, 2012
Jesus-Shock! Philosophy to follow…
Nearly 90 minutes before the first game of Friday’s doubleheader against the Marlins, the Nationals announced a trade that sent minor league catcher David Freitas to the Oakland Athletics for veteran catcher Kurt Suzuki, who will take over the starting role from Jesus Flores.
Approached by reporters and asked about the trade following the doubleheader split, Flores said he didn’t know about the trade and that he hadn’t had a conversation about it with team officials.
Once reporters shared the news and asked for a comment, Flores said: “Not at all. I don’t even want to talk about it. I’m just in shock. I didn’t know we had a new catcher.”
It seems difficult to believe that Flores didn’t know about the trade. But he appeared shaken when asked about it. Understandably, it’s a difficult time for Flores, whose future with the organization beyond this season appears to be in question. He is eligible for arbitration this winter.
Repoz
Posted: August 04, 2012 at 08:40 AM | 65 comment(s)
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1. boteman Posted: August 04, 2012 at 09:15 AM (#4200426)Meanwhile, Mike Rizzo made what I considered a steal of a trade at the time swapping Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos, so Flores' stock fell even further. Now with the Nats going through about one catcher per week Flores had to see the writing on the wall. Oh, and there's his Twitter account where he might have gotten wind of the K. Suzuki acquisition.
Suzuki hits microscopically better than Flores, but his defense is reputed to be anywhere from better to a hell of a lot better, which is what the Nats need. They can suffer a black hole in the lineup at catcher as long as he's not Swiss cheese behind the plate and can throw out at least one base stealer.
Braves are 2 games back and closing and the hitters aren't hitting right now. They need all the offense they can get at this point in time.
Not even if they make you their starting catcher?
Most major league players are delusional.
He's only starting because Ramos was hurt, not the same thing as being the guy from day one. I actually think Sandy Leon and Jhonathan whatshisface have played better
+1
Seriously, the Nationals' major problem all season has been a relatively weak-hitting lineup.
They have played 36 one-run games, with a 19-17 advantage. They've won 11 blowouts (+5 runs or better). Compare that to the Braves 24 one-run games with a much bigger 16-8 advantage, and winning 20 blowouts. I think both are attributable to there being more 'sock' in the Braves' lineup (491 runs scored vs 454).
OK, if one couldn't get a better hitting catcher, then a better fielding one is still getting one an advantage one didn't have before. But the Nationals' most serious problem is not a Swiss Cheese catching corps.
I seem to remember Davey Johnson's Mets teams outperformed their Pythagorean projections. This morning's Pythagorean standings show the Nats outperforming their projection by just .003, the Braves are outperforming by .012.
I was at the game Tues vs the Phillies. First Pierre steals 2nd and 3rd on consecutive pitches, and on the steal of 3rd the throw goes into left, with Pierre scoring. Next inning was more embarrassing, when Cliff Lee (!) snagged 2nd base. Maybe we should blame the pitcher, but the Nats armsmen gotta realize their backstop needs as much help as they can give him.
Seriously some of you ought to look up what a zero sum game means.
Isnt some of this statistical noise? Does anyone have a good handle on how much is considered statistically significant? Off the wall I'd guess has to be over 0.1 to be any sort of indication of anything.
I think over the 56 games that are left they'll need the offensive runs more than whatever fractions of runs a catcher will provide on defense.
So please explain to me this mysterious zero sum game thingy.
But flores has been hitting just as bad, if not worse, and Suzuki is more likely to rebound.
I'd like to see them do two games for Suzuki, one for Flores going forward, let Suzuki get some rest and see if he can't recover some power.
I'd like to see them do two games for Suzuki, one for Flores going forward, let Suzuki get some rest and see if he can't recover some power.
The point of contention wasn't about Flores or Suzuki but about my view that the Nationals need all the offense they can get right now while Sunday Silence, I'm guessing, thinks the improvement in defense by adding Suzuki and subtracting Flores will be equal to whatver offensive improvements you can make at the position.
Suzuki and Flores are both pretty bad with the stick so the only improvement they should expect by playing Suzuki is on defense and his defensive numbers this year don't look so great so his defensive prowess is going to add only about a run or two to the bottom line. Basically, unlike what Boteman stated, the Nats can't really afford to punt offense with their catcher spot. It simply does not provided them with enough defense to allow them to carry it as a black hole in the lineup.
Take that with however large a shaker of salt you wish.
This is correct. The Nationals squad of hitters is reminiscent of the 2008 Brewers in containing an amazing number of people who will seem somewhat out of place starting a postseason game. Craig Counsell, age 37? Jason Kendall, age 34? Ray Durham, age 36? Bill Hall? Corey Hart? This year, Adam LaRoche? Rick Ankiel? Mike Morse? Danny Espinosa? Kurt Suzuki?
JF 221/265/337
KS 248/302/358
That's a substantial gap.
Anyway, until this season, Suzuki has been an average or better C, including being an average hitter for a C. Flores has never been that (although that might be due to the injury). It's certainly possible for a C to collapse in his age 28 season, especially one used as heavily as Suzuki, but chances are pretty good that Suzuki is, overall, close to league average while Flores is replacement level.
Not tonight at least. Washington got 12 hits and 3 walks but Suzuki didn't get a single one of them and went 0-3. Every other positional player got a hit. Jose Reyes stole 2 bases tonight and ended up scoring both times after the steals.
The funny thing about LaRoche's home runs is that they all look exactly the same in terms of the swing he puts on them, and go to exactly the same part of the ballpark. Man is nothing if not predictable.
I am going to explain this to you one time; so take out your pencil McCoy:
1. Suzuki improves Washington pitching staff incrementally, via better framing of pitches, etc.
2. Washington pitching good >>> Great!
3. Great pitching stops great hitting.
4. Stopped hitting: 0 runs or shutout.
5. Shutouts only end when one run scores.
6. Nationals score a run in the 10th or whatever on walk/sac/error.
7. Nationals win all the rest of their games.
8. Winning all the rest of games = World Champions.
Our hitters are hitting just fine, but thank you very much for your concern though. 199 runs scored in our last 36 games now, with a team OPS somewhere in the vicinity of .770 over that period.
The bottom line is that over roughly the last six week period, the Nationals have been one of the better offenses in all of baseball. Whether or not you or anyone else is willing to acknowledge this is something I frankly don't give a crap about; the numbers speak for themselves.
Yeah, and more offense wouldn't have helped them, right?
The bottom line is that over roughly the last six week period, the Nationals have been one of the better offenses in all of baseball. Whether or not you or anyone else is willing to acknowledge this is something I frankly don't give a crap about; the numbers speak for themselves.
Plus they scored 12, 11, and 10 runs from June 26th to June 28th! That has to be relevant to what they are going to do tomorrow, right?
That is, are you making a point that is obvious and uninteresting, or a point that is wrong?
The good news is that the eight spot is the only weak place in the lineup (leaving out when DeRosa starts) particularly when Desmond comes back. They don't have to be a great offense to go deep in the postseason. Good might be enough.
And yet the obvious and uninteresting point is the one that is getting disputed and no my point isn't that 1 run of offense would help more than one run on defense but that whatever "bonus" the Nats get from Suzuki's defense is going to be really small while his bat is going to cost them a bunch of runs so they are better off getting a worse defender but a better bat, like Soto would have been, for that position.
Well yes, unless the better bat comes packaged with worse defense. If your point is "there were better catchers available," then just say so. But this has nothing to do with the Nats "needing offense" any more than they need defense.
Are you trying to get nominated for the pointless quibbling award?
Is it true that the second point is wrong? Saving runs defensively means less work for your pitching staff.
EDIT: Also, the Astros are just 4-30 over their last 34 games! I find that just incredible. I would imagine that has got to be one of the absolute worst stretches of baseball any major league team has ever had in the history of the game.
Poor advance scouting?
Well, that would be a possible reason, not an excuse. But it wouldn't be the first time that non-heralded rookies would cut through a lineup like a hot knife through butter their first start or two in the majors.
You really should check out the 1962 Mets game log. Their longest winning streak was 3 games, and they managed that just twice. Their longest losing streak was 17. I don't think they had a 4-30 stretch, but they did have stretch where they went 9-38. They broke that slide by winning two in a row (something they accomplished only 11 times all year, including double counting those 3 game streaks), then followed up with a 3-22 run. They did manage to go 11-7 between April 28 and May 20, but followed that stretch of respectability with the afore-mentioned 17 game losing streak.
The 1916 Philly A's and their tidy 2-41 stretch scoff at the Stros' little run of bad play.
It's unclear that Soto would have been any better than Suzuki. Granted he's been a bit better this year, in that he's been replacement level rather than half a win below replacement level. On the other hand, they had identical WAR in 2011, Soto was about a win better in 2010, and Suzuki was about 3 wins better in 2008-9. So, I think the question stands: was there anyone available better than Suzuki?
Yes, he goes by the name of Geo Soto. He's been clearly a better bat than Suzuki over the last three years and has been a better bat than Suzuki this year, even including pre-DL play. Since coming back from the DL Soto has hit .324/.396 in 102 PA. Kurt's has hit .232/.299 in his last 102 PA.
Why would you talk so mean about Esoteric?
Can you really be a concern troll for your own team, Lassus? That would make half the Mets fans on Primer concern trolls as well.
They will need to step it up a bit when they move to the American League next year.
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