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Saturday, February 10, 2007

Baseball America: Jim Callis: Changes in Order of Supplemental First Round of 2007 Draft

there has been a reshuffling of the draft order, as Major League Baseball has announced a change in the sequence of supplemental first-round picks.

In the past, the supplemental first round mirrored the order of the other rounds, with no distinction made between the quality of free agents lost. Now all the compensation picks for Type A free agents (among the top 30 percent at their position) will come before those for Type B free agents (the best 31-50 percent). Choices for failure to sign a first-rounder from the previous draft will continue to come at the end of the first round.

...

Supplemental First-Round Picks
31. Nationals (Alfonso Soriano, A, to ChC)
32. Giants (Alou)
33. Braves (Danys Baez, A, to Bal)
34. Reds (Rich Aurilia, A, to SF)
35. Rangers (Lee)
36. Cardinals (Jeff Suppan, A, to Mil)
37. Phillies (David Dellucci, A, to Cle)
38. Blue Jays (Justin Speier, A, to LAA)
39. Dodgers (Lugo)
40. Padres (Woody Williams, A, to Hou)
41. Athletics (Barry Zito, A, to SF)
42. Mets (Roberto Hernandez, A, to Cle)
43. Giants (Schmidt)
44. Rangers (Matthews)
45. Blue Jays (Catalanotto)
46. Padres (Dave Roberts, A, to SF)
47. Mets (Chad Bradford, A, to Bal)
48. Cubs (Juan Pierre, B, to LAD)
49. Nationals (Jose Guillen, B, to Sea)
50. Diamondbacks (Craig Counsell, B, to Mil)
51. Giants (Mike Stanton, B, to Cin)
52. Mariners (Gil Meche, B, to KC)
53. Reds (Scott Schoeneweis, B, to NYM)
54. Rangers (Mark DeRosa, B, to ChC)
55. Red Sox (Alex Gonzalez, B, to Cin)
56. Blue Jays (Ted Lilly, B, to ChC)
57. Padres (Alan Embree, B, to Oak)
58. Angels (Adam Kennedy, B, to StL)
59. Athletics (Frank Thomas, B, to Tor)
60. Tigers (Jamie Walker, B, to Bal)
61. Diamondbacks (Miguel Batista, B, to Sea)
62. Red Sox (Keith Foulke, B, to Cle)
63. Padres (Ryan Klesko, B, to SF)
64. Diamondbacks (have yet to sign 2006 first-rounder Max Scherzer)

The three teams that get screwed the most are Cubs, Nats and Dbacks…

The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: February 10, 2007 at 05:30 AM | 37 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: teams

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   1. philly Posted: February 10, 2007 at 01:50 PM (#2295190)
Since 1998 (when the draft went to 30 teams) the average number of supplemental picks was 13.2 and on average the 2nd rd started at pick #44 and covered picks #44-73.

This year there are 34 supp picks (may go up one for Villone signing somewhere besided NYY and down 1 for AZ signing Scherzer) and the 2nd rd will start at pick #65 and cover picks #65-94.

All rounds after the supp are pushed back ~2/3 of a round (21 picks) so that a 2007 2nd rd pick is equivalent to a 1998-2006 3rd rd pick, a 2007 3rd pick is equivalent to a 1998-2006 4th rd pick, etc.

Here's a alitte summary I wrote that goes back to 1987:

link
   2. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: February 10, 2007 at 02:13 PM (#2295195)
The three teams that get screwed the most are Cubs, Nats and Dbacks…


Perhaps, but:

1 - The Cubs signed 3 compensatable free agents, and lose only (I assume) 1 pick. Don't the Rangers and Blue Jays get screwed by this?

2 - Compensation for Juan F Pierre! Are you kidding me?
   3. MSI Posted: February 10, 2007 at 06:00 PM (#2295256)
The Jays got a B pick for Ted Lilly.

But the supplemental round is so big partly cause teams agree in advance with players they know won't comeback (like Chan Ho park!) to not accept arbitration when offered so they get a free supplemental pick. Maybe the archaic Elias critera can be altered.
   4. Nate Posted: February 10, 2007 at 07:06 PM (#2295287)
The Padres have SEVEN additional picks this year, without losing even one of their own. They will likely have six picks in the first 65 of the draft. That's insane.
   5. robinred Posted: February 10, 2007 at 07:15 PM (#2295294)
The Padres have SEVEN additional picks this year, without losing even one of their own. They will likely have six picks in the first 65 of the draft.

If one believes in most rank-the-farm-system lists, they need them.
   6. Danny Posted: February 10, 2007 at 07:17 PM (#2295295)
If they're going to differentiate between Type A and Type B, why not just order the supplemental round by Elias rating?
   7. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: February 10, 2007 at 07:18 PM (#2295296)
Danny, when has MLB done anything that makes any sense?
   8. Social media assassin (Templeusox) Posted: February 10, 2007 at 07:18 PM (#2295297)
Grady Fuson with 6 early picks is a scary thought for the NL West.
   9. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: February 10, 2007 at 07:24 PM (#2295299)
E.P.P, how would you rate SD's 2006 draft?

Incidentally, the guy I like the most is their 3rd round pick...
   10. Social media assassin (Templeusox) Posted: February 10, 2007 at 07:34 PM (#2295302)
I really liked their draft, and yes I also like Hunter the best of all their picks. He doesn't really project to hit for a ton of power (read: 30 HR), and his arm limits him to left field, but I love his discipline and his bat. Antonelli might have been a bit of a reach, but he's a safe bet. On the other side of the spectrum, Kyler Burke is total projection and zero polish. But he could be a stud if he ever figures it out. I really liked the way he mixed up high ceiling talent with polished players in the early rounds and then brilliantly selected Matt Latos in the late rounds as a DFE.
   11. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: February 10, 2007 at 07:55 PM (#2295305)
Thanks for the analysis, E.P.P. I feel the same way about Hunter vs. Antonelli.

Speaking of 2006 drafts, I was a bit disappointed with AZ's picks last year. Of the guys they got, I like Brett Anderson's upside the most, think that Brooks Brown was a solid pick, and believe the Dbacks got a steal in Cyle Hankerd. The problems with the other picks are the fact that Scherzer was/is hurt and unsigned, Dallas Buck has a 40% tear in his ligament but refused to have a TJ surgery, and the only other position player besides Hankerd that I like (Andrew Fie) is still raw and far off. Osbek Castillo in the 33 round was a decent gamble, but the guy is old and needs to move up fast. As far as Rizzo drafts go, this was pretty sub-par in my opinion.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2006xteam.php?team=ARI

It'll be extremely interesting to see what AZ does in their draft without Rizzo this year...
   12. Social media assassin (Templeusox) Posted: February 10, 2007 at 08:26 PM (#2295311)
I think the D-Backs had a good draft which becomes a very good draft if Scherzer signs, who I love. I see Brown ending up in the back of the bullpen eventually. He's got typical power stuff, but he loses it as the game goes on because of his conditioning. Brett Anderson was thought of as a top 10 pick at one point last year, so all things considered they got excellent value in taking him in the 2nd. I also like Hankerd and Ambriz.
   13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 10, 2007 at 08:29 PM (#2295312)
It seems like the amateur draft has strayed far from its original intent with the worst team in baseball has two of the top 65 picks, and just three of the top 95 picks.
   14. Rich Rifkin I Posted: February 10, 2007 at 08:33 PM (#2295314)
"Type A free agents (among the top 30 percent at their position) will come before those for Type B free agents (the best 31-50 percent)."

How is it that Frank Thomas (4th in MVP voting, 39 HR, 141 OPS+) is a Type B free agent, while Danys Baez (59.7 IP, 101 ERA+) is a Type A?
   15. Danny Posted: February 10, 2007 at 08:36 PM (#2295315)
How is it that Frank Thomas (4th in MVP voting, 39 HR, 141 OPS+) is a Type B free agent, while Danys Baez (59.7 IP, 101 ERA+) is a Type A?

They use two years of data, and Baez had 41 saves and a 2.86 ERA in 2005.
   16. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: February 10, 2007 at 08:36 PM (#2295316)
The Jays got a B pick for Ted Lilly.


Right, but didn't they get screwed out of the Cub's first round pick because it had to go to the Nats? Or does the new CBA do away with that compensation.
   17. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: February 10, 2007 at 08:50 PM (#2295321)
does the new CBA do away with that compensation?


Apparently not:

• Type C free agent classification is eliminated.
• Teams that lose a Type B free agent will now earn a sandwich pick instead of taking selection from club that signed player.
• The pool of Type A players shrinks from top 30 percent of each position to top 20 percent, while the Type B player pool will be reduced from the top 31-50 percent of players to 21-40 percent.


Sounds like you still get two picks for losing a type A; there are just fewer type A players. There are more sandwich picks because of the change in type B compensation from one of the signing team's picks to a sandwich pick without a decrease in the number of players classified as type B.
   18. Danny Posted: February 10, 2007 at 08:51 PM (#2295323)
Right, but didn't they get screwed out of the Cub's first round pick because it had to go to the Nats? Or does the new CBA do away with that compensation.

Type B's only return a supplemental pick now, and the Cubs 1st round pick would be protected in the top-15.
   19. MSI Posted: February 10, 2007 at 08:54 PM (#2295325)
Also, Ted Lilly is a type B even though he had a solid year last year...the year before he was equally as bad, making him not a Type A.
   20. MSI Posted: February 10, 2007 at 08:55 PM (#2295326)
Lilly had a 5.56 ERA last year in 126 innings.

The only thing we were screwed over by was Gary Mathews Jr. edging out Justin Speier by a couple of Elias Rankings points for the Angels first round pick. We get their 2nd round pick now. Blast you Gary Mathews jr.!
   21. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: February 10, 2007 at 08:58 PM (#2295328)
Upon further review, it may be that the Jays got screwed out of a pick because Lilly would have been a type A under the old system. But I don't think you can say that they got screwed out of the Cubs first rounder, because I believe that pick (third overall) was protected even under the old system.
   22. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: February 10, 2007 at 09:08 PM (#2295331)
I think the D-Backs had a good draft which becomes a very good draft if Scherzer signs, who I love. I see Brown ending up in the back of the bullpen eventually. He's got typical power stuff, but he loses it as the game goes on because of his conditioning. Brett Anderson was thought of as a top 10 pick at one point last year, so all things considered they got excellent value in taking him in the 2nd. I also like Hankerd and Ambriz.


Well, it's nice to know that you're more optimistic about the Dbacks 2006 draftees than I am. Going into the draft, I was really hoping that by some miracle either Longoria or Lincecum would drop to AZ at 11, but alas... Maybe that's why I've been down on Scherzer; the fact that he's been hurt and remains unsigned hasn't helped endear him to my heart. If course, if he's healthy and signs soon (which I think he will), I'll jump on his bandwagon.

All in all, I wish the DBacks had used some of their picks on drafting a few high school kids with strong college commitments and paying them a bit extra to sign. They already have good depth at most positions in the farm; what they need is high ceiling guys who'll arrive in AZ around 2010 and 2011.
   23. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: February 10, 2007 at 09:09 PM (#2295332)
Upon further review, it may be that the Jays got screwed out of a pick because Lilly would have been a type A under the old system. But I don't think you can say that they got screwed out of the Cubs first rounder, because I believe that pick (third overall) was protected even under the old system.


OK, I have always wondered how this worked. The Cub's first rounder is protected (I knew that). Do the Nat's get the Cub's second rounder or are they hosed?

Assuming the Nat's get the Cub's second round pick, and assume Lilly is a type A, do the Jay's get a Cub's pick, and if so, which round?

Suppose the Yankees sign 5 type A's from 5 different teams. Who gets their first round pick and what do the other teams get?
   24. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: February 10, 2007 at 09:13 PM (#2295333)
Who gets their first round pick and what do the other teams get?


The team that loses the highest ranked type A free agent (per Elias) gets the first rounder (unless it's protected, which isn't the case with NYY). The team with the second-highest A free agent gets the second rounder, etc. Each team will also get a supplemental first rounder.
   25. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: February 10, 2007 at 09:20 PM (#2295336)
The team that loses the highest ranked type A free agent (per Elias) gets the first rounder (unless it's protected, which isn't the case with NYY). The team with the second-highest A free agent gets the second rounder, etc. Each team will also get a supplemental first rounder.


That's what I figured. I would be more fair however to give the subsequent teams sup picks instead of later rounds ( and just eliminate the requisite later round Yankee picks.) I mean if I'm team #5 on that hypothetical list it sucks that my compensation can drop from a late first rounder to a late fifth depending on where the guy signs.
   26. Danny Posted: February 10, 2007 at 09:25 PM (#2295338)
That's what I figured. I would be more fair however to give the subsequent teams sup picks instead of later rounds ( and just eliminate the requisite later round Yankee picks.) I mean if I'm team #5 on that hypothetical list it sucks that my compensation can drop from a late first rounder to a late fifth depending on where the guy signs.

Yes, and they should make teams give up their gained picks as compensation. If a team signs 4 Type A's and loses 4 type A's, they can gain 4 first round picks and 4 supplemental picks while giving up just their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders. The Padres are getting the Giants' 4th round pick this year (134th overall) as compensation for Dave Roberts, whereas they would have received the 18th overall pick if the Cardinals had signed him.
   27. MM1f Posted: February 10, 2007 at 10:30 PM (#2295354)
Ugh, this compensation thing is worse than ever. This is nuts.

I don;t mind teams getting picks for legit starters but the sheer amount of them is CRAZY!
I'd rather they just got rid of the whole system.
   28. ValueArbitrageur Posted: February 11, 2007 at 12:45 AM (#2295386)

32. Giants (Alou)
33. Braves (Danys Baez, A, to Bal)
34. Reds (Rich Aurilia, A, to SF)
35. Rangers (Lee)
36. Cardinals (Jeff Suppan, A, to Mil)
37. Phillies (David Dellucci, A, to Cle)
38. Blue Jays (Justin Speier, A, to LAA)
39. Dodgers (Lugo)
40. Padres (Woody Williams, A, to Hou)
41. Athletics (Barry Zito, A, to SF)


Barry Zito was less valuable than these guys?
   29. Danny Posted: February 11, 2007 at 01:00 AM (#2295391)
No, but the A's were better than those other teams.
   30. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: February 11, 2007 at 01:00 AM (#2295392)
The order of the supplemental picks has nothing to do with the Elias ranking of the free agents, but with last year's record of the teams receiving the draft picks. It's always been the case; simply this year the teams that lost A players receive their picks before the teams that lost B players. Am not sure why everyone's so hung up on Zito's value...
   31. Danny Posted: February 11, 2007 at 01:19 AM (#2295395)
The order of the supplemental picks has nothing to do with the Elias ranking of the free agents, but with last year's record of the teams receiving the draft picks. It's always been the case; simply this year the teams that lost A players receive their picks before the teams that lost B players. Am not sure why everyone's so hung up on Zito's value...

Other A's fans and I were understandbly pissy when it looked like Zito was going to sign with the Mets, but the A's would get the Mets' 2nd rounder because Moises Alou was rated as the 2nd best free agent--one spot ahead of Zito.
   32. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: February 11, 2007 at 01:37 AM (#2295400)
And we remain understandably pissy that he signed with a crummy team and the A's got stuck with a marginally higher, still-after-the-unconscionable-number-of-sandwich-picks 2nd rounder.
   33. NTNgod Posted: February 11, 2007 at 02:07 AM (#2295402)
And we remain understandably pissy that he signed with a crummy team and the A's got stuck with a marginally higher, still-after-the-unconscionable-number-of-sandwich-picks 2nd rounder.

So you guys went from freaking out that FA compensation was going to be eliminated a few months ago, and now you realized you get a glorified third-round pick...

On this topic, there was a Tampa Tribune column about a week ago talking to the Devil Ray people about the upcoming draft:
"I think there's a lot of interesting players," [TB scouting director A.J.] Harrison said this week. "I hate to say it, but it would be a wonderful year to have some more picks up high."

Compounding the problem for the Rays is the new structure of the draft, put in place with last year's approval of a new collective bargaining agreement. The compensation structure for free agents has changed, with the number of "sandwich" picks added between the first and second round to reward teams that lost upper-tier free agents increasing dramatically.

Because they didn't lose any free agents of stature, the Rays didn't get any of those picks for themselves. As a result, they'll pick first overall, but their next selection won't come until they begin the second round with the 65th pick.

"It kind of dilutes it - it's not truly a second-round pick, it's more like a third-round pick," said Harrison. "But it is what it is, there's nothing we can do about it."

(With the Chan Ho Park signing, they now pick 66th to begin the 2nd round)
   34. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: February 11, 2007 at 02:21 AM (#2295405)
Ron Villone is still out there...
   35. Brian Posted: February 11, 2007 at 03:34 AM (#2295428)
You have to like the padres reacting to the new setup and clobbering everyone else. I hope they have a great draft and smarts pay off big for them.
   36. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: February 11, 2007 at 03:45 AM (#2295433)
The Padres also happened to have a lot of mediocre garbage entering the free agent market, and the market has been very willing to suck up any refuse with four healthy limbs (and in some cases--Mulder, e.g.--even fewer intact body parts).

That being said, the Padres were ballsy enough to offer arbitration to guys like Klesko and Park. Of course, I'm sure they had a "gentleman's agreement" (aka, Theo Epstein Gambit) than none of their B type free agents would accept their offer.

Anyhow, the Padres need any young talent that they can get, so they can surround hall of famer Matt Bush with supporting cast for their domination of the West...
   37. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: February 11, 2007 at 03:50 AM (#2295437)
Here's a alitte summary I wrote that goes back to 1987:


"punk a55 pimple popper"?! nice.

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