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Sunday, April 13, 2008

jinaz: Markov: Dusty Baker’s lineups aren’t half bad

First I watched “The Star Chamber” last night where a crazed Hal Holbrook kept raving about Dusty Baker…and now I read this!

All I can say is “wow.” Dusty’s lineup didn’t come out as #1, but it was darn hard to beat, and only an estimated 5 runs per season behind Bluzer’s top-rated lineup.

Think about that. Baker’s lineup violates one of the biggest “rules” for lineup construction that us stat people harp on—his leadoff hitter is projected to have a miserable 0.307 OBP this season. And yet, the interactions between players in his lineup are such that his lineup results in more wins per season than most other variants…at least, according to Markov. My own lineups, which I designed based largely on the lineup chapter in The Book, rated as a fairly middle-of-the-pack lineup, and came out a good 17 runs (~1.5 wins) behind Baker’s model. And some of the user-submitted lineups, which look very reasonable to my eye, came out more than 30 runs per season behind Baker’s. Again, “wow.”

Repoz Posted: April 13, 2008 at 01:43 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: reds, sabermetrics

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1. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: April 13, 2008 at 02:23 PM (#2741825)

As I stated before the season, Corey Patterson is the EXACT type of guy who could respond to Baker's ability to massage an ego. Corey's career is at its nadir. If someone can buck up his spirits, tell him he's a good player, and let him play the results could surprise. Now, Corey isn't going to keep getting 9 extra base hits out of each 11 hits as he has right now. But there is nothing to say he couldn't hit well over the first 3 months or so before NL pitchers begin to understand the holes in his swing. They used to know these things and it will take a bit of time for everyone to remember.

Elsewhere, Dusty has stuck with Edwin despite the lad stinking it up and has given Joey Votto the same number of chances as Hatteberg.

The concern for Reds fans is Cueto who in some ways is MORE impressive than Prior. Will Dusty show some restraint? 'Cause Johnny Cueto, or Johnny Quest to some of us, is a fine looking young pitcher. He's a 100 times better than Bailey right now that's for d*mn sure......................

2. baudib Posted: April 13, 2008 at 03:33 PM (#2741862)

Dusty's a good manager.

3. joker24 Posted: April 13, 2008 at 03:54 PM (#2741869)

They've done a good job keeping Cueto's pitch count down...so far. Management (as in above Baker) has to have something to do with that right?

4. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: April 13, 2008 at 03:57 PM (#2741871)

WM:

It isn't pitch count. It's the effort. Pitching when fatigued which is something a veteran pitcher and operate around but a young pitcher hasn't been out there enough to know better.

5. zonk Posted: April 13, 2008 at 04:06 PM (#2741876)

They've done a good job keeping Cueto's pitch count down...so far. Management (as in above Baker) has to have something to do with that right?

Not walking anyone and giving up few hits also has a way of keeping pitch counts down.

6. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: April 13, 2008 at 09:36 PM (#2742381)

Hey, i watched the star chamber last night too!

7. Justin 'The Cespedobear' T Posted: April 13, 2008 at 10:53 PM (#2742433)

And pitch counts might come to matter if the Reds are in any sort of contention from July on. I'm not too impressed with Dusty keeping things in control through three starts.

8. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: April 13, 2008 at 11:11 PM (#2742446)

lets see, right now i have a choice between Joe Dirt, the Good the Bad and the Ugly, and Yankees/Red Sox.

if i had to rank em as to watch-ability, they would be ..

Clint Eastwood
Dana Carvey
..
..
Yankees
..
RedSox

But, after being disappointed with Star Chamber the second time around, i think i will go with the classics's instead on this fine Sunday afternoon ...

Joe Dirt it is.

9. paytonrules Posted: April 14, 2008 at 02:19 AM (#2742886)

Joe Dirt stars David Spade, not Dana Carvey.

Please shoot me for knowing that.

10. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: April 14, 2008 at 02:25 AM (#2742909)

"there are two kinds of people in this world, those with guns, and those that dig."

thanks for the correction.

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Sunday, April 13, 2008

jinaz: Markov: Dusty Baker’s lineups aren’t half bad

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