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1. Dale Sams Posted: October 11, 2011 at 01:11 AM (#3958987)As Alec Baldwin once said, "ABC. Always be considering."
Short-term, I expect they will let Alonso thunder around in LF. Long-term, my guess is that Votto eventually gets traded, since I think that looking at what Teixeira, Howard, and Gonzalez got, with Fielder to follow, there is no chance Votto will not either test the market or do a trade/extend with a big money team.
In case you need a refresher, while we were discussing Ordonez's injury yesterday, someone linked to the Transaction Oracle from the Tigers signing him. Someone in that thread stated that the Tigers would regret the signing "in four years when they couldn't fill a hole" and four years later, the Tigers had signed Bonderman, Guillen, Cabrera and Willis to big-money extensions and had the 3rd highest payroll in the AL.
More and more, I get the feeling Castellini is about to turn into Illich and let Jocketty do what he wants this off-season (and in the future) to compete with the Cards.
Why can't Cincinnati afford one big contract? Every team can afford one $20-25M deal, and one of the 10 best position players in baseball seems like a good place to spend that money.
If I were Cincy, I'd offer him a 5/115 extension right now, and go 6/140 if pressed.
When he signed his current deal, he said something to the effect of "How does anyone know what they'll want to do in 3 years?" The feeling in Cinci is that he's likely to test the FA market.
The good thing is that the usual suspects in a bidding war are set at 1B:
Teixeira is signed thru '16
Gonzalez is signed thru '18
Cabrera is signed thru '15
Howard is signed thru '16
Ike Davis is arb eligible thru '16
Pujols (STL?) and Fielder (CHN?) have to go somewhere this year, and will be signed long-term.
Who knows what the Dodgers will be able to do?
The only team that might break the bank and have a spot for him is the Angels, but they're going to be paying $68M to Weaver, Wells, Haren (if they pick up his option) and Santana (ditto) in '13, then pay more if they want to keep all 4.
The Reds might be in better shape than people think, unless Votto just doesn't want to play for them.
I just don't really understand this. I don't know why his particular "contract situation" would make someone think: trade. 2 year at $27m total for a great player? And create payroll flexibility? please, the only thing it would create is money for the owner. The only reason you want payroll flexibility is so you can pay your best player $27 m for 2 years.
Seems to me that one of these things is not like the other. Davis doesn't have near the repuation that those other guys have, and Votto would be a nice upgrade. If I'm Votto, I might prefer to wait to hit FA to sign an extension anyway, although a big offer would have me strongly considering. I can see the Yankees trying to bury Teixeira in a couple of years and by then, the Dodgers situation will hopefully be settled. They SHOULD be a big money team.
A) he's Canadian, if Lawrie's any indication the fans like the hometown stuff (Votto is practically from Toronto)
B) ownership, Beeston and AA have all made noises about how the payroll is going to get upped when things start falling together (which according to plan is in about 2 years)
C) 1B will open up soon. They're stuck paying Lind for 2 more years then a bunch of options (which at this point the Jays don't seem likely to exercise)
D) unless I'm forgetting someone they don't exactly have a 1B prospect knocking down the door
It's mostly just me trying to convince myself it's possible. But I think it would make sense on a couple levels.
Seems to me that one of these things is not like the others in another way- The Mets are not entering into a "bidding war" anytime soon- not until the Wilpons are no longer owners
Two years is a long time, so lots can happen. The only guy they're on the hook for right now in '14 is Billingsly. But...
Kemp - Next year is his final arbitration year. Considering he's a CF who can steal 30-40 bases, he might command more than Votto on the market.
Kershaw - If he wins the CYA this year, he's going to get hella expensive quickly. Two more seasons like this one, and he also might command more on the market than Votto.
I would also think they'll need to replace Lilly and Kuroda in the rotation before Votto hits free agency.
Even with a strongly capitalized owner (you know, like the anti-McCourt), it would be tough to fit Votto on the payroll after paying Kemp and Kershaw and adding the pieces over the next two years to stay competative.
When he signed his current deal, he said something to the effect of "How does anyone know what they'll want to do in 3 years?" The feeling in Cinci is that he's likely to test the FA market.
Yeah, but it's really tough to turn down $120M.
It's set for life money in any case. Is he going to say no for the off chance of getting $150?
I am with you; I didn't say they should trade Votto, just that I think they will.
Why would Tampa Bay trade three players (Shields, etc.) for a guy they won't be able to sign any better than Cincy? Besides they have the HOF bound Casey Kotchman to play 1b. They couldn't even afford to pay Carlos Pena.
Where would Boston play him? Their problem is not 1b or dh ; it is pitching.
Toronto? Didn't they have a pitcher in about the same place and traded him to Phily rather than wait and be unable to sign him? They just unloaded Alex Rios and Vernon Wells. Why would they suddenly turn around and sign a very expensive 1b to a long term contract?
Agree it is tough to see a market for Votto. Doubt he would agree to DH and who would pay him huge money to do that. A problem the Prince will have,too.
Sounds like the Heymans and Olneys of the world and perhaps an agent or two are spreading stories. The reality is a tougher picture.
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