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But I thought it was his fault the Twins are terrible. They would do well to cut out the cancer...
You just triggered Fred Wilpon's angina. What a jerk you are!
How many 30 year old catchers with 142 million owed are great things?
But the Red Sox cleared a bunch of payrolls and need some better players. Who will they sign? There will be plausible reasons not to sign anyone to a big contract but if you always give into those reasons, you'll never have a long run of success.
Your facts are not relevant!
How badly do you want Wright gone? Besides, we have a catcher who can hit home runs now (as of last night), so I think we're all set there.
And Davis, though his overall numbers just can't rebound from how terrible he was in April/May/early June. From June 9 on, he has been one of the league's most productive 1B.
As usual, Ray was the voice of reason.
Oh, mine was more of a jokey meme thing, I don't really see Mauer as much of an option or benefit to us, he's made for the DL.
That being said, Shoppach is not a HR hitter, please don't even start with that.
I love Mauer as a player, but the Victor Martinez role is not worth $23 mil per. The contract looked like an overpay at the time, and looks like one even moreso now. He has only caught 114 games over the past two years.
Winner's curse.
Maybe: A-Gon, Holliday, Miguel Cabrera, Halladay, Konerko, David Ortiz, CJ Wilson....
2 already for the Mets-- double Thole's output in 280 less ABs. My standards for "power-hitting catcher" have been recalibrated after a couple of seasons watching Josh Thole.
You hoped to be getting that kind of a player in year 6 or 7 of the deal, after getting several top catcher years out of him.
Boston just sent one out, that was thought to be an asset, you know the one they used to dump the other 2.
Other than that, off the top of my head, without doing too much fact checking:
Miguel Cabrera
CC Sabathia
Matt Kemp
Tulo
Jeter
Holliday
Halladay
Torii Hunter
Weaver
Matt Cain
Edit: stale coke
OTOH, catcher is the one position where what I like to think of as "positional leverage" really counts. I.e., you can use Mauer as a DH in a lot of AL games, but you can use him at C in interleague and, most importantly, in the playoffs (in order to get a bat in at DH). If Mauer is twice as valuable on a per-game basis at C compared to at DH, you can use that value in higher leverage situations.
Hitting home runs is like the one offensive skill Shoppach has.
There's a decent case to be made that all of the recent 1B/DH megadeals will turn out to be bad or very bad*: Prince, Tex, AGon, Pujols (who am I forgetting?). It might be that "we" are valuing these contracts perfectly well, and that these guys are on bad deals (for the clubs).
*I'm obviously jumping the gun; I'm saying there's a strong chance they'll turn out that way, but we need a few years to know for sure.
Cabrera, Votto, Howard.
MCoA's analysis said that there was negative value in his contract. Most people described his contract as "fair", though it's unclear exactly what everyone meant (and they likely all meant something different.
Didn't most of those contracts include buying out arb years? Which means you basically can only get this player if you develop him, maybe if you trade for him towards the end of his arb years. A few names on that list were just free agents, but it seems like the minority of big free agent deals.
I know when fangraphs calculated the marginal cost of a win, they saw that the cost was linear (a 6-win player cost twice as much per year as a 3-win player). They also noted that the 6-win player gets a longer contract, and presumably that's where the non-linearity was. Did they follow that up?
But they can't afford him because the Sox will be forced to have a small payroll because of John Henry's hedge fund like they have for the past 8 years.
Think about the two deals combined: they would have upgraded A-Gon slightly to Mauer, dumped the Beckett and Crawford contracts and got a bunch of decent prospects. Now THAT would be good management.
Which is why they won't do it. Duquette would have.
Ha Ha. What did the Sox' payrolls in each of the last 7 years prove about your 'point,' which you have been making annually since 2005?
Also, you guys joke about the Dodgers, but I wouldn't be surprised if they put in a claim.
loss? 1. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)
win 2. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)
? 3. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21)
? 4. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23)
? 5. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20)
win 6. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10)
loss? 7. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18)
loss? 8. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)
win? 9. CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15)
win 10. Manny Ramirez, $160,000,000 (2001-08)
----
13. Adrian Gonzalez, $154,000,000 (2012-18)
16. Carl Crawford, $142,000,000 (2011-17)
17. Todd Helton, $141,500,000 (2003-11)
19. Alfonso Soriano, $136,000,000 (2007-14)
21. Vernon Wells, $126,000,000 (2008-14)
. . . Barry Zito, $126,000,000 (2007-13)
. . . Jayson Werth, $126,000,000 (2011-17)
24. Ryan Howard, $125,000,000 (2012-16)
26. Mike Hampton, $121,000,000 (2001-08)
31. Ken Griffey Jr., $116,500,000 (2000-08)
. . . Carlos Lee, $100,000,000 (2007-12)
37. Carlos Zambrano, $91,500,000 (2008-12)
Naw, I keep telling you people, Liverpool needs a striker!
I can't believe more people don't have KM on ignore.
You see what the Victor Martinez role was actually valued at. Granted Mauer could play that role much better, but $23 mil is still a vast overpay.
It's to be noted that the best 1B are paid $25 mil per, but the problem there is that Mauer doesn't hit like them.
Here's the catchers list:
I mean, his contract is up in the stratosphere there.
Glad to read that. Some players just should not be moved. Mauer is a local boy and on his way to the HOF and should have only a Twins cap on.
Like Ripken with the Orioles, Gwynn with the Padres, Yount with the Brewers, Brett with the Royals, Jeter with the Yankees, Chapel with the Tigers, Walker with the Expos (d'oh)...Some things just should not be messed with.
Can't complain too much when your team gets a great player, but maybe the baseball gods are not exactly pleased with Arte for taking el Hombre out of St. Louis.
Not being a fan of an AL team, I had no idea Mauer was catching that little. If he can only catch half of his team's games, $23 milion a year is definitely out of line with his on the field production.
That being said, I don't know that you should trade him. You're unlikely to get value back for anyone with a contract that size. And as a local boy, the Twins have additional PR reasons to keep him around.
I just hope the Braves are paying attention, and keep this in mind when McCann's contract is up. I'm a big McCann fan, but...
I was going to ask something similar. Post #37 is informative but salary inflation has made the gap between Mauer's and some of the past contracts a little exaggerated. I think Ray is right that it is an overpay, but I also still think that if he were a FA this offseason he would get 5/$110m or 6/$125 from someone.
I'm not sure this is that much of an issue. Although Molina's contract is instructive, as it was just signed in March. He was heading into his age-29 season and coming off a 124 OPS+, which was a career high but his defensive reputation (and performance according to dWAR) has always been stellar. Molina is seen as, and has been, one of the best catchers in the game.
I'm with Jonah Keri. It is a good idea. It is an overpay, but you don't get awards for win/$.
If someone said I’ll trade you Joe Mauer, James Loney, another piece and two top #100 prospects for Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Adrian Gonzalez…you’d take it wouldn’t you?
I understand the knee-jerk reaction is to say "Oh hell no!" but i don't want my FO to be knee-jerk fanboys. The perfectly priced FA superstar isn't going to walk through the door anytime soon. And the worst thing that can happen is 'oops. We got Joe Mauer'.
The Twins seem to recognize that Mauer only has so many games to catch over the remainder of the contract and they're not going to push him when they aren't competitive.
I'd say about $3M of the annual value of the contract is pure marketing. Mauer is the face of the team. He sells tickets and jerseys, especially to women.
1. If a player has a no-trade clause or a 10x5, does that apply to waiver claims as well? I thought about this with Beckett, that if he refused the trade, that the Sox could have just let him go.
2. What precautions are in place to prevent a team from letting a player go on waivers and then making a seemingly-independent deal with the claiming team?
1. Yes, the clause (or 10/5 rights) apply. The contract can't be assigned without their permission.
One
Yeah, sure, it's the vowels. She's always just thinking of you. (Wink, wink!)
Have the Twins said that this is why he hasn't caught much? It would be the first time in history a catcher was used this way, to my knowledge.
It seems to me that you simply can't bring yourself to admit that the contract is a bad one and that Mauer is already no longer a full-time catcher.
Did the Twins consider themselves out of it on April 18th? Because Mauer had only started 6 of 11 games at catcher to that point.
The Twins were 8 games out of the division on July 3rd, and yet Mauer had started just 33 of the 80 games at catcher. Perhaps they would have been closer had he started more games?
What's the reason for starting Drew Butera? He's caught in 33 games, starting 25 of them (232 total innings). He has a .567 OPS, .497 career.
It's not like Mauer was catching regularly until the Twins gave up on the season. Right from opening day he wasn't catching regularly.
If your $23 million catcher has to be used this way, where you're basically gambling in April and May that the season is lost and therefore there's no reason to start him regularly, he's not worth $23 million.
Crap, now you are reminding me she likes Reddick and Travis Buck too... Im going to have to expand my theory to include players with lots of vowels and Oakland outfielders that look like Lorenzo Lamas.
If someone said I’ll trade you Joe Mauer, James Loney, another piece and two top #100 prospects for Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Adrian Gonzalez…you’d take it wouldn’t you?
Yes, I agree. Acquiring Mauer would be a suitable second step to the plan, and would greatly reassure me as to the direction of the org.
That being said, of course, as noted many times in this thread and desperately ignored by karlmagnus, Mauer's future has precisely ####### to do with whether or not it would be a good idea for the Red Sox or Mets or whoever to acquire him.
I think the argument here is not that he has to be used that way, but that he can be used that way.
The Twins are basically rotating 3 guys in the 1B, DH, and C positions. Does it really matter what defensive combination Mauer, Morneau, and Doumit are playing? Why not give each guy some time off from playing in the field, especially when you consider that all three have injury histories?
Who is Chapel? Charlie Gehringer? Also, Barry Larkin is the platonic ideal of this stereotype as well.
You could take out Mauer's name and add Yuniesky Betancourt, and you'd still make that deal, if the deal couldn't be made otherwise. That doesn't mean acquiring Betancourt in a waiver claim is a good idea.
Joe Mauer should no longer be considered a catcher. If Mauer is not a catcher, he is not a unique talent. If he is not a catcher, he is likely not worth the contract he has. Boston just unloaded a bunch of players who likely would not be worth their contracts; I see no reason to go down that path again for someone who is not a unique talent.
Billy Chapel was Kevin Costner's character in "For Love of the Game". A career long pitcher for the Tigers.
Billy Chapel. Tossed a perfecto at Yankee Stadium when he was washed up. Dated some weird scientology chick.
catchers have awful seasons and later it's discovered that they were dealing with an injury the whole time. wouldn't surprise me to learn that mccann's season has been sabotaged by some owie of his hands or shoulder or somewhat
mauer should catch 115 odd games and dh another 30 and the twins should be fine with that.
Well, sure. Troy Tulowitzky "could" be used as a 1B/DH also. But if you do that, you're slicing off a chunk of his value.
First, they're rotating 4 guys, not 3. Drew Butera of the .500 career OPS has the equivalent of 26 full nine-inning games at catcher.
Second, this is fundamental player evaluation. Yes, it does "really matter" if Mauer isn't catching. Because he's not as valuable at other positions. They have used Drew Butera at catcher for 232 innings. And Mauer's bat is not as special at first base. And Doumit isn't worth very much as a DH.
I think he has acknowledged that he has some shoulder injury.
Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire have both said there's no reason to wear out Mauer this year. I'm not saying he would have caught 30 more games but 10-15 is reasonable.
None of us here in MN can figure that one out. Probably the same reason they really liked Denny Hocking.
Second in the league in OBP isn't unique? 23mill unique? no. But let's not dismiss him out of hand. That's why deals are worked out.
Nobody has ever saved a catcher's legs by playing him at other positions before? I know Bill Freehan was used this way, I'm sure there are others. There are plenty of ballplayers who get days off to keep them fresh for a playoff run.
I think that's the plan but it assumes a playoff run. If the Twins make the playoffs Mauer catches 115 games including the postseason.
I'm just saying, we don't know that yet. Mauer is still a very good defensive catcher - unlike Victor Martinez, say - and so it's possible that 2011's injuries were just a fluke and next season the Twins (or another club) could sit him behind the plate four or five days a week and get a new string of 5-6 WAR seasons.
by definition, no.
my cutoff for a catcher being deemed the primary is 70 percent and that equates to right around 115 games of the regular season.
What did Joe Mauer do differently in 2009 that allowed him to hit 28 home runs?
Well if we're playing that game, he is. How many others are second place?
Citing OBP without SLG is not as problematic as citing BA, but it's not very helpful, either.
He has a .425 SLG, which is decidedly not unique. His 130 OPS+ is very good, but only 26th in the AL. The OBP will push him higher than that, but not that much higher. His EqA is .294. Very good. Not elite.
So, no, his hitting has not been unique.
If the Twins offer to kick in $3m per year that should lock the deal down.
Edit: Cokes to Ray though, he was the only voice of reason on the other thread. I just think he underestimates the value of being able to play Mauer at multiple positions, as well as the possibility he will be able to play catcher often, and hit at a high level. I don't think the Sox are taking a big risk here, Mauer is far more valuable, useful, and talented than Crawford, and the cost isn't much more. Marginal wins to the Sox are worth the risk, if they get 6 WAR a year from one roster spot that's worth paying up for. At $20m per year they should roll the dice for sure.
Mauer to first, and Ike to an OF corner?
Yes; I think anything less than 115 and it's not reasonable to call him a regular catcher. You'd like to see him at 120-125 minimum, but if it's 115 and he's playing other positions and they're saving his legs, fine. But 62 with a month left? No.
Have his career year.
It was a career year, just as Boggs hit 24 HR one year, without "1987" as the explanation. Maybe Brady Anderson is a better example than Boggs. But players will repeat their career averages instead of their career years, and Mauer is no exception. He's a 135 OPS+ hitter, not a 170 OPS+ hitter.
i noticed at the time but joe was clearly locked in upon his return in may and cranked any pitch on the inner half out of the park. i figured that was a fluke since he immediately became the usual joe mauer of mostly doubles and a homer every so often and then he did it again in august with 8 homers.
so he hit 19 homers across two months.
just a swag but i figure he felt really healthy, was feeling good, made an adjustment and everything clicked
when he got hurt again in 2010 and was struggling he either went back to the old way for comfort or didn't think he could keep up the new approach.
this is all from memory but joe mauer in may 2009 was looking to hit homers. i noticed it at the time because he crushed the brewers that month. next year he was feeling for the ball again and slicing it to left center
I think you are missing the point. If the Rockies were playing in the AL, and their primary DH could also play shortstop, then they certainly could play Tulo at DH to rest him.
While the Twins may be slicing off a chunk of Mauer's by having him DH, aren't they getting more value out of Doumit by playing him at catcher?
The goal for the Twins isn't to maximize Joe Mauer's value. If you want to argue that the Twins should have a different DH than Doumit, I'd listen to that argument. But I see no reason why the Twins should play Mauer full time at catcher when they have a DH who can also catch.
10 of Butera's starts happened in a 25 game window in May, when Morneau missed a couple of weeks. As to why they play Butera, DL and Tripon have nailed it - no one knows, but the Twins seem to love his defense.
Look at the hit chart. He found a spot in the Metrodome that he could reach hitting the ball the other way. Then they moved to Target Field and that same power alley is 15-20 feet further away. Incidentally, that power alley is right off (or over) the Green Monster. He only has one other "zone" where he can pull a ball out of the park to RF and pitchers pretty much don't throw it there.
That is a mindset that fans need to get away from. There's one thing being crippled, and it's not these fat-cats mansion bills. It's peoples enjoyment of baseball,People that see a guy like JD Drew strike-out and go "How much are 'we' paying him??? AUGGHHHH"
I didn't hate Crawford because he failed, I hated him because he had a baseball IQ of 12.
Ray, even tho Molina's hitting well this year, his 124 OPS+ brought his career OPS to 88. Excellent defender, yes, not so excellent comp. Piazza's little D and large bat brought a bigger contract.
Wonder Boy my ass?
I don't recall anyone saying at the time, "Well, the plan is to play him 75 games at catcher in year 2 if his team is out of it, to save his legs."
What has happened is that the first year was a lost year between injuries and an off year in hitting, and the second year has seen him return to form as a hitter but catching an expected 75 games. The deal has started off badly. It's not Carl Crawford bad, but it's been bad. At a minimum it's very concerning.
And yet the response here is, "What's the big deal? They've been rotating him around because they have other good players and they're dealing with injuries to other players and they're saving his legs because the team is out of contention even though they started right from April 1st playing him part time as a catcher."
People are up in the clouds with this.
So you think the Twins should play Mauer 130 games a year at catcher just to justify the contract? Even if there is no benefit to the team to do so?
But in general there is a benefit for the team to do so: fewer games with a backup catcher in the lineup.
Having Doumit around does keep the Twins in a nice spot--he and Mauer can trade off in order to keep Mauer from breaking down. But ideally you have better bats at 1B and DH--because Mauer has to jump around, the Twins will find it harder to fit in an everyday 1B-or-DH-worthy bat.
EDIT: This discussion would be a lot different if Doumit wasn't having an excellent year.
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