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Saturday, January 23, 2010

Joe Posnanski Blog: The Six Stages of Kansas City Royals Grief

and very severe cognitive decline is just around the bend.

To be honest: I don’t know what to think about any of it. It’s not impossible that Ankiel, playing in a comfortable atmosphere in Kansas City, will have a good year. Hey, Emil Brown did. It’s also not impossible that he will be Mike Jacobs. I obviously have my own prediction (.240-.250 average, few walks, average defense the Royals will rave about, 15-20 homers if he gets enough at-bats).

But what makes the whole thing so baffling is that I have absolutely no idea what this is supposed to accomplish. It is just so disconcerting that three and a half years after Dayton Moore was hired in Kansas City, their minor league system is so bereft of Major League ready talent, they are going around the league and signing 30-somethings that nobody else wants. It is troubling that the Royals apparently plan in 2010 is to make fans hope that a bunch of older players will recapture their past glory — or at least their past moderate success.

It is troubling that Dayton Moore’s entirely sensible plan for success — find young players, develop them, bring them to the big leagues — seems to be spinning in the mud. If you are going to be that kind of organization, you actually have to BE that kind of organization. I don’t know if Jason Kendall, Scott Podsednik, Jose Guillen, Rick Ankiel, Yuniesky Betancourt, Kyle Farnsworth, Juan Cruz and so on are are blocking any promising younger players from the big leagues.

But I guess that’s the point: If they ARE blocking younger talents, then the Royals are doing a lousy job of developing players.

And if they ARE NOT blocking younger talents, then the Royals are doing a lousy job of developing players.

So maybe it’s really not confusing at all.

Repoz Posted: January 23, 2010 at 07:52 PM | 5 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: royals, sabermetrics

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: January 23, 2010 at 08:39 PM (#3444968)
Wow, Poz usually isn't this pessimistic.

Moore has had, what, 3 drafts? 4? You wouldn't expect much of his talent to be ML-ready yet. And while it's true that a team like the Royals has to develop young talent to succeed, that doesn't mean they should rush their young talent to the majors. The Baird Royals did that and it helped leave Moore with nothing.

I don't think Moore has done a good job but his key role for this type of organization is drafting and developing. If he's doing that reasonably well, then he's in the vicinity of OK. Have we seen Sickels on the Royals yet? MWE have an opinion?

Anyway, when Moore took over, the Royals were nearly empty of talent at all levels of the organization. Everybody knew he was walking into the worst organization in baseball and that it would take years and years to turn it around. That the MLB Royals still suck doesn't really tell us anything about the job Moore is doing -- no matter who they had hired as GM, the MLB Royals would still suck in 2010. The question is whether he's improved the 2012-13 Royals in his time. (But, no question, if the Royals ever get good talent coming up, Moore should not be allowed to construct the rest of the ML roster.)
   2. philly Posted: January 23, 2010 at 09:19 PM (#3444994)
Typically drafts produce very little in the first three full seasons after the draft. In the fourth full year you start to see a substantial production bump.

Moore's first darft was 2006 so that class should just be starting to hit their stride in 2010. That there isn't much in the Royals upper minors ready to burst onto the MLB scene in 2010 still says much more about the system that Moore inherited than the job Moore has done restocking it.

You can make the argument that he should have mixed in more college players to move quickly, but there's really no reason to expect much MLB production out of virtually all of the good things that KC and Moore have done in terms of amateur talent acquisition recently, ie signing HS kids who fall in the draft to over slot bonuses, dramatically increasing spending internationally.

It just takes a long time for those players to filter up. It would have been nice if Moore could have done a better jab filling the talent gap at the major league level, but that's a whole different story.
   3. jwb Posted: January 23, 2010 at 11:43 PM (#3445071)
Moore's first darft was 2006
Not really. Moore accepted the KC GM position before the draft but stayed with Atlanta to run their 2006 draft. KC ran their 2006 draft without a GM.
   4. MikeTorrez Posted: January 24, 2010 at 12:32 AM (#3445100)
Just trust the process and everything will work out fine.
   5. JPWF13 Posted: January 26, 2010 at 12:04 AM (#3446218)
Not really. Moore accepted the KC GM position before the draft but stayed with Atlanta to run their 2006 draft. KC ran their 2006 draft without a GM.

that would explain drafting Hochevar #1 overall

The 20063 draft has Hoch and.... well Taylor is still young... and well Van Stratten has hit .311/.391/.450, of course he'll be 25 next year and has yet to play in AA...

2007:Moustakas- still young, .250/.297/.421 in the Carolina League at age 20 is not turrible... not exciting either
Danny Duffy has nice looking numbers, but he better arrest than k/bb and k/9 trend soon (it gets worse at every promotion...

Ah hell, the best hitter in Omaha was 30 year old Cory Aldridge, Tug Hulett hit well for a 2b, he's also a AAAAer they got from Seattle...
Northwest Arkansas...Jeff Bianchi? David Lough?, Jordan Parraz?

This is depressing

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