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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Friday, June 19, 2009
Harold and Joe
Go go go!!!
Unfortunately, this morning I made the mistake of reading this. That is a blog post, written by Harold Reynolds, that (from what I can gather) tries to explain the … well, I’m not going to lie to you, I really have no idea what it tries to explain. I’m sitting here like a cartoon character with all sorts of question marks and exclamation points dangling over my head in a thought bubble. Yes, I blame myself: I mean, Harold Reynolds is not a writer. And I know that my own feelings about baseball and statistics and measuring value do not always meet up with Harold Reynolds.
...So, yes, I was probably aware that I would not be on board with whatever conclusions Harold Reynolds made in his blog post. But I read it for three reasons: (1) It is short; (2) It is putatively about OPS — and yes, I did have a bet with someone that I could use the word “putatively” in a sentence; (3) I like Harold Reynolds. I figured, at worst, I would kind of shake my head and move on to something else this fine Friday morning.
Little did I know that in a mere 522 words, Harold Reynolds would leave me a broken man. It isn’t that I disagree with what I think is his conclusion (OPS is a flawed statistic — I loosely agree with this). It isn’t that I am opposed to ballplayers standing up for what they believe about the game (hey, there are a lot of ways someone can be a good baseball player). It isn’t even that the logic of a short post sends me tossing and turning and I have a weak stomach … I take Dramamine every time I go on a plane, so to read this I needed one of those motion sickness watches.
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1. Shredder Posted: June 19, 2009 at 05:53 PM (#3225000)I can totally relate Harold. I am a farmer and I can't believe how science has taken over the agriculture business. Like I had an old neighbor who was much like Dick Williams. He said, "If something is going wrong with your crops, then the situation will dictate what to do. Like, if rain is your problem, then sacrifice two goats or one pig. If pests are your problem, then yell at the moon for a forenight and bury three red stones in your field. Problem solved. But I shouldn't have to tell you beforehand, you should know this." Now days they have fancy inventions like irrigation, meteorology, crop rotations, and fertilizers. I am like, "Phooey and bunk!" I am just like you Harold, I don't need their new fangled theories and hocus-pocus in order to understand farming better. I mean a meteorologist has never farmed, what can he tell me or my old neighbor about farming? We reached the pinnacle of understanding with yelling at the moon! The point is that I have nothing left to learn just like you, Harold.
Star Wars I
I like Harold Reynolds a lot. If I’m looking for an explanation of how to turn a double play or how to decide to go from first to third on a single, I’ll ask Harold. If I want to know about the usefulness of OPS, I’ll look elsewhere.
We were in a Baseball Tonight production meeting one day, and Harold wanted to talk about lead-off hitters on the show. He started listing the important qualities of these hitters. The first was speed. I groaned internally. He kept the list going, and all the while I’m thinking, “Say OBA!” He lists about five more things without mentioning getting on base. He looks like he’s searching for one more thing, so I pipe up with, “The abilility to get on base.” Harold echoes that, and goes on.
The list Harold gave were qualities that helped you get on base, or helped you score once you got on base, but he didn’t pull those together into a stat that explained most of it.
So when did Posnanski start taking writing lessons from Bill Simmons? Or is this another (hopefully short-lived) body switch?
Agreed. I still haven't seen II or III because Phantom Menace was so bleh.
Gold.
That's a quote from an older blog entry, so the bodies have long since been switched.
Anyway, back to Poz, this is a pretty good recap of Harold's argument:
I like Harold Reynolds a lot. If I’m looking for an explanation of how to turn a double play or how to decide to go from first to third on a single, I’ll ask Harold. If I want to know about the usefulness of OPS, I’ll look elsewhere.
Exactly. Reynolds isn't just arguing on the basis of an appeal to authority, he's actually appealing to the wrong authority as well. Many statheads, if choosing to use that fallacy, could throw the "I was hired by an MLB team to evaluate the usefulness of statistics and you're not" card right in Reynolds' face.
To be honest, I'm having a hard time separating the two in my mind.
Agreed. Robin Williams is painfully unfunny, if I could stab a movie with a pen it would be Mrs. Doubtfire. Yet I really enjoy him in dramatic films ie. The World According to Garp, Good Will Hunting, and Awakenings.
I wouldn't call a non-LP b-side an easy reference...
Am I the only one here who finds Mrs. Doubtfire kinda funny? I mean as a whole yea it sucks, but there are some parts I will legitimately laugh at to this day.
Meh, the second Matrix movie is still pretty good.
Mrs. Doubtfire deserves to exist just for the spoof in Arrested Development.
This was going to be nearly my exact response. The only good thing about Matrix II was that it so thoroughly deflated my expectations for the final installment that I was actually able to enjoy (some of) it.
Agreed. I still haven't seen II or III because Phantom Menace was so bleh.
Keith, II was substantially better than I (though still not good). III was worth it -- on the whole it's in the ballpark with Jedi. (I know someone who thought it was better than New Hope, but that's crazy talk.)
It was benign.
But still cancerous, nonetheless.
No. Way. Episode III was crap.
I saw Episode I on opening night. I really wanted to love this movie. I was so, so angry when I left the theater.
Virtually everyone is brilliant in Death to Smoochy.
This might well be the fault of comic directors -- one suspects they just give Williams free rein to be "funny."
It's interesting that Williams comic career almost exactly mirrors that of his idol Jonathan Winters. Winters and Williams were both absolutely hilarious at the start of their career -- and then they made the mistake of thinking that "wacky and unstructured" is inherently funny with dreadful results.
The best part of this is the double irony that the "fancy inventions" are not modern farming, which--if the Green Revolution in India is any indication--has been less effective than yelling at the moon.
I'm not saying that's the case in baseball, but it's amusing.
Excellent call. Both are at their best when working within a tightly scripted structure.
1. Teams (mainly) walk or pitch around Dunn when it is to their advantage to do so rather than pitch to him.
2. Therefore when Dunn (and note my phrasing here) is walked, it is not (very) advantageous to his team.
This ties in with the Ichiro comment as well -- why would a pitcher walk Ichiro? (Actually, Ichiro was intentionally walked a lot early in his career.) It is the old notion that it's (mainly) up to the pitcher whether the batter walks or not. If you start with that premise then, by definition, a pitcher (at least a good one) would only walk a batter when it's to the pitcher's advantage. Therefore to "reward" high walk hitters via OBP is to over-value them.
There is of course some truth in there -- a walk to Dunn is not as damaging as a walk to Ichiro. But of course among the many things Reynolds overlooked, is the comparison of Dunn to the non-walking slugger. By Harold's own "logic," pitchers "chose" to pitch to, for example, Dawson and Joe Carter rather than pitch around them. Why? Because they knew those guys would swing at a pitcher's pitch. Sure, some times the pitcher made a mistake and/or Dawson/Carter put a hurting on one of those pitches off the plate. Still pitchers "chose" again and again not to walk Dawson and Carter despite their power and RBI while they do "choose" to walk Dunn. Surely even Reynolds would recognize that taking a walk is better than hitting the pitcher's pitch and making an out 80% of the time. But maybe not ... maybe he thinks Dunn would hit 60-70 HR a year if he didn't take so many walks.
Another other useful comparison is Henderson and Boggs vs. Ichiro and Gwynn. Now there's obviously nothing wrong with Ichiro's 377 or Gwynn's 388 OBPs but they pale in comparison to Henderson (401) and Boggs (415). Henderson is the ultimate example to show that pitchers don't control walks to a particularly great degree. No pitcher ever wanted to walk Henderson (OK, he had 61 IBB in his career). Or on a more human scale, no pitcher ever wanted to walk Brett Butler or Luis Castillo or, my old favorite, Al Leiter.
You can swing at pitches off the plate and make the pitcher's job easier ... or you can lay off those pitches and draw a fair number of walks. Obviously that form of plate discipline is a talent but, as an overall strategy, there is no reason any batter should "choose" the first option.
I don't think I agree with that actually. As comedians, they were great in their youth in unstructured settings because ... well, because their brains were able to think up really funny stuff in that context ... stuff that probably wouldn't have come to them in a structured setting. It's just that later, for whatever reason, their brains stopped coming up with funny stuff and, as comedians, they were reduced to random crap thrown against a wall.
If you ever want to torture yourself, watch the Robin Williams episode of Inside the Actors Studio. Between Williams doing 1000 hilarious characters and Lipton's non-stop fellating (if memory serves, at one point he actually counts the number of different characters Williams has used so far) ... it's not even so bad it's funny ... but it is the almost perfect parody of both Williams and Lipton.
EDIT: oh, the broader point was that I find it intriguing that two great young improvisational stand-up comedians tanked in the same way. I'm trying to think of others who'd qualify as great young improvisational stand-up comedians ... Lenny Bruce maybe and seems his late-career wasn't all that funny either, but his was a very different schtick than Williams and Winters. Guys like Carlin or Billy Connolly I think were more in the "scripted to appear improvisational" mode but they never lost it to the degree that Williams and Winters did.
He still is - he's second in the AL in intentional walks this season. As to why Ichiro would get intentionally walked, it's pretty simple - any time a single can beat you and there's a base open, it's probably wise to walk him. I still have no idea what the South Korean manager was thinking pitching to Ichiro in the tenth inning of the final of the WBC, with two runners in scoring position and first base open...
True enough. But once they'd passed that early peak, each still was able to be funny playing a more-or-less-standard character, where the humor was to be found in their struggle to remain composed when all hell was breaking loose around them. Think Williams in The Birdcage. But that was all they were able to be funny in; I agree that they were still allowed to perform the old stream-of-consciousness schtick despite the fact that it was groaningly bad.
If you ever want to torture yourself, watch the Robin Williams episode of Inside the Actors Studio. Between Williams doing 1000 hilarious characters and Lipton's non-stop fellating (if memory serves, at one point he actually counts the number of different characters Williams has used so far) ... it's not even so bad it's funny ... but it is the almost perfect parody of both Williams and Lipton.
That sounds hideous.
I'm reminded of a similar Williams riff on an old Dick Cavett Show, with Cavett doing the fellatio. As bad as TV gets.
Whassup wit dat?
hi, there...
Also Seattle suxx?
I never thought of Carlin as trying to appear improvisational. Leaving aside the obviously scripted skit stuff, like the hippy-dippy weatherman, all of his bits were carefully scripted, many involving well thought out word play and observational humor. I think one of the reasons he lasted so long was that worked very hard at coming up with good and new material.
As to Williams and Winters -- it is not so much that they lost it, as we got tired of it. The first few times, it is new and shocking and hilarious. After a while, you hear the same funny voice for the 20th time, and the edge is off.
Yes. And one of his greatest skills was to deliver such impeccably carefully-crafted and precisely-written material in a persona that appeared to be loose and loopy.
As to Williams and Winters -- it is not so much that they lost it, as we got tired of it. The first few times, it is new and shocking and hilarious. After a while, you hear the same funny voice for the 20th time, and the edge is off.
Indeed. Demonstrating, I guess, the inherent challenge in remaining fresh and funny with an act that's based on outrageousness. The really long-career comedians tend to be the straightforward stand-there-and-tell-jokes guys. There's a reason that, say, Bob Hope had a lot more staying power than Red Skelton.
To be fair, Red Skelton was always much more a traditional clown type, than a stand-up comic. That involves a lot more physical humor, and that usually leads to a shorter career.
But he was a great, great clown.
Goodnight, and God Bless.
and yet Pavement have become a punchline--damn, it's been weeks since a good Pavement discussion broke out--hey, anybody have an opinion on Ibold's work on the latest Sonic Youth?
[Edited for Pavement!]
SW I isn't bad for a kids movie. SW II has those tortured teeny bopper scenes, but I think they are *supposed* to make you uncomfortable. I liked III.
If you weren't between the ages of 6 and 20 when you first saw "IV" (A new hope) then it's actually quite mediocre (special effects of the times wizardy aside)
Well, I don't know, I guess I didn't perceive him as staying on the A-list for most of that time. Maybe he's a bad example, but my point is, I think, still valid: a comedy act built on frenzied antics is harder to sustain in the long term than one built on straightforward joke delivery.
I don't quite buy that either. All comedians have to deal with the basic issue of coming up with fresh material. But, in terms of style, Williams didn't do anything that Winters hadn't done 10 years earlier, he wasn't particularly outrageous in context (Winters, Pryor, Dick Gregory had all been more outrageous in various ways) yet he was funny. I don't think we grow tired of it per se, I think that stand-up improv is even harder than regular stand-up and it's very much an all-or-nothing style (Adam Dunn without the walks!). On the other hand, improv group comedy might be easier.
Dick Gregory's another guy who completely lost it but he had a standard style.
But once they'd passed that early peak, each still was able to be funny playing a more-or-less-standard character, where the humor was to be found in their struggle to remain composed when all hell was breaking loose around them. Think Williams in The Birdcage.
Ahh, well if we're talking acting, then I do agree -- though I can't remember Winters from anything except the Russians are coming, the Russians are coming.
Wow, it namedrops Byron Allen. There are no words for that person.
He was also in It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World. In both movies he was delightfully funny, performing scripted comic acting in an ensemble, certainly not being allowed any free-form craziness.
Steve, every comedian, every actor and every other living, breathing American was in It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World.
And was the Russians are coming that highly scripted? Reiner, Arkin and Winters all came from improv backgrounds. I wouldn't be at all surprised to find a lot of those scenes, maybe especially Winters' scenes (though I haven't seen that movie in ages), were improvised ... and I can imagine a number ended up on the cutting room floor.
Winters is the "paranoid right-winger" character, right?
You say that like it's a bad thing.
Winters is the "paranoid right-winger" character, right?
No, that's Paul Ford. Winters is the junior cop, the assistant to Brian Keith.
I suppose there might have been some improvisational stuff going on in that movie, but it was hardly just Jonathan-Winters-with-a-mike-on-a-stage stuff. Norman Jewison was the director/producer, and as with Mad, Mad World, the budget was very large. One doubts the studio was being too keen on just letting them roll a whole bunch of film and see what happens.
Winters' character is the guy who keeps saying, "We've just got to get organized!"
Pitchers *do* control the timing of walks, more than you think. Example: in high-leverage situations, BB rate goes up, ISO goes down, almost across the board (it is a *very* rare hitter who loses walks in high-leverage situations).
-- MWE
Yeah, I have the extra-features edition of the DVD that has Berle in his interview giving away that secret. I don't recall him getting into any trouble for that, though. I could be mistaken.
Well, yeah. I didn't mean to suggest there aren't situations where pitchers pitch around a guy -- of course there are. I meant more the idea that a pitcher can just "throw strikes." The old "why would a pitcher walk Ichiro?" While clearly a pitcher is more likely to walk a high ISO hitter than Ichiro, the main reason a low-walk hitter is a low-walk hitter is because he's swinging at stuff outside the zone.
As to why Ichiro would get intentionally walked, it's pretty simple - any time a single can beat you and there's a base open, it's probably wise to walk him.
Actually not as much as you might think. If an important run is on third and there's a base open, it might be wise to walk him. But for his career, with a man on 2nd only, Ichiro has 114 singles and only 50 times has he plated the runner -- yet he has 66 IBB in that situation. (Or 131 hits with 69 RBI which is more relevant but I am always astounded at how weak Ichiro's singles are.) He is definitely the guy to call when you need an RBI groundout with a man on 3rd and less than 2 outs. :-)
(Granted, I have no idea what the league average is for driving in a runner from 2nd with a single but I gotta think it's well above 50/114).
Who's Line Is It Anyway?
Ask and ye shall receive...I have nothing better to do while sitting in the Atlanta airport waiting for my 11 AM flight.
In 2008, there were 2324 situations in which there was a runner on second and a single was hit. The runner was driven in by the single 1267 times - 54.5%. At that rate, Ichiro's singles should have scored the runner 62 times in his 114 opportunities.
-- MWE
Saw Russell Peters live last night. The rest of the card was mixed--John Pinette was very good, Ben Bailey was better than expected, and everyone else was a little too cliche.
Peters is interesting because he's basically the hardest working cultural comic (as in jokes about culture). He probably the world's best paid unlicensed anthropologist/linguist. He has insanely mixed audiences. And I don't think I'd ever seen so many mixed ?M/WF couples in one place at one time.
Final question: Why are so many comedians lamely homophobic? I don't mean clever stereotypical humor...I just mean shouting, "That's so gay" for no particular reason...
I'm not sure if it's available on iTunes or the CBC website, but I figured that I'd mention that Russell Peters has been doing a radio comedy called Monsoon House, which is one of the funniest things I've listened to, and I say that despite not finding Russell Peters to be particularly funny in his standup.
In 2008, there were 2324 situations in which there was a runner on second and a single was hit. The runner was driven in by the single 1267 times - 54.5%. At that rate, Ichiro's singles should have scored the runner 62 times in his 114 opportunities.
-- MWE
gotta love this site. So Ichiro is 12 short there, but he still advanced the runners (assuming they weren't out at the plate) which is still a worse result than walking him (of course he still makes outs 63% or so of the time. )
(I feel sorry for you being in Atlanta airport....place doesn't even sell Mountain Dew)
Wow, I'd love to find that.
It's straight audio right?
I always heard his part was already exceedingly big...
At the Friars Club's memorial tribute, Freddie Roman solemnly informed the audience, "On May 1st and May 2nd, his penis will be buried."
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